Erich's Update for Wednesday, September 28, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, September 28, 2005
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No trades from Our Tom today. One of our recommended Brokers, Matt Shelley got his name in the Futuresource pulication again. http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4600007676084944960
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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Looks like the AD might hold support tomorrow. We're firmly at an RSI testpoint and a bounce would confirm the support. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound tried to fake us out yesterday with that bullish fade session but to no avail as the market fell sharply today finding our first profit target in the process. If you exited here you're up $1700 per contract, if you're still trying to max out the trade the best place for stops is still 177.91.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD continued to hunt for support today. We're just shy of an RSI testpoint, so it should only be another day or two before we're ready to take a position. Support at 8460 is likely to be influential.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The EC continued lower today as well. The problem with this market is the huge ranges making it difficult to take a *reasonable* position. We'll keep watching though. Expect a bounce if we see rates test support at 119.50.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Like the song says "that's the way, a-ha a-ha, I like it!" What a wonderful gap in the Yen today as rates made a huge move in our favour! Gaps can be scary, but extremely profitable when they're in the right direction.

First profit target is support at 8850, but we've got over $1200 in profit as of the close. If you want to scoop as much of this as possible place stops above today's close, or high. If you're letting the trade ride you'll have to be much more patient and leave stops all the way back at 8993.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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An uneventful day in the Peso except that RSI is hooking higher. This has me a little concerned about our short position, so I'll bring stops in above the high to at least protect a little profit.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swiss Franc found our first profit target today. If you took profit here you earned yourself $1100 per contract! If you're still short the trade and want to ride it out you *should* leave stops above yesterday's high...but that's a long way away.

We're at serious support so a bounce is likely. No one will blame you for bringing stops in tighter. Remember, we can always re-enter.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD rallied higher today, but didn't get to our first target - yet. Still watching resistance at 8997 for a profit taking opportunity. Exit stops can go below 8910 resistance, or at 8887 if you're trying to ride the trade.
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2: ENERGIES
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November Unleaded Gas HUX5
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The market is still reeling from the hurricane last week. Just look at those ranges - crazy! I'll just keep watching for now.
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November Heating Oil HOX5
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Ooops! Had some bad data yesterday and didn't realize that we got whipped out of our Heating Oil sell order. Looking at RSI we might have been a little premature selling as we've got a testpoint today.

The market is extremely wild, and although I expect lower prices tomorrow I think I'll pass.
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December Crude Oil CLZ5
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Still waiting for crude to take another run at the support at 6390. Prices are extremely choppy right now however, and we might have to wait a while for crude to pick a direction.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Okay, I know you're going to say I'm being too picky, but today's range isn't a great example of support. If we see a higher session tomorrow (which I think we might) I'll get more serious about placing a sell order.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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Here we go again, chop-city. We haven't wandered too far from the 10450 - 10460 support though and if we hang around here much longer I'll look to sell from here.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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As you might expect there was nothing decisive in the NAS either. I'm not sure what they're waiting for, but what ever it is, it hasn't shown up yet.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P is looking the most bearish of the bunch, and I was really tempted to sell the market below today's low, but again we've got the old range issue to deal with. The S&P doesn't usually run away on us, so I'll give it another day to see what happens.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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The problem with trading corn right now is the strong long term support below the market. Corn's likely heading to 195, but that doesn't give us a lot of elbow room to build a trade. It can be done, but it is tight!

*SELL December Corn at 202 3/4
*Stop 205 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 195 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $375 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats fell off today, but the big session is making me a little cautious about selling again tomorrow. Look for possible support at 152 and another chance to sell.
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November Rice RRX5
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Rice is looking a little wishy-washy as RSI is heading higher, but prices continue to struggle with resistance. I will place a buy order above the 715 resistance, but it's weak. I would much rather use the 720 line, but that's going to give us a lopsided trade.

*BUY November Rough Rice at 716.5
*Stop 709.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $140 per contract
*Profit Target: 739.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $460 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy Meal moved slightly lower today allowing us to bring stops closer to breakeven. You could get them to breakeven if you chose, or use the 173.7 resistance to cover the trade for $80 risk.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil is moving all over the place and fell off hard today to the 2220 support line. I'd like to say we're going to see a reaction here tomorrow, but the way this market has been it's a tough call.
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November Soybean SX5
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Soybeans did fall off substantially today giving us a little breathing room on our short position. RSI is at a testpoint so a hiccup might be around the corner tomorrow. The best place for exit stops is breakeven, but we do have about $450 in accumulated profit - halfway to our profit objective. As an alternative use the 560 intraday resistance level.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat seems to be going nowhere fast. Still nothing worth trading here [yawn!]
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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And they're off! Feeders broke the 114.30 resistance and are now tangling with the 114.60 contract highs. I *should* be buying a breakout, but truth be told Feeders scare me. I think I'll just watch for now.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Brutal range in cattle today tagged our exit stop at breakeven. I'm not too happy about that as I'm pretty sure we've got the direction nailed.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs moved away from resistance today, but even so I'm going to run the same order tomorrow. We're trading at significant support so we might see a bounce.

*BUY December Lean Hogs at 6337
*Stop 6287
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 6497
*Approximate Profit Potential: $640 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Here we go again with copper, giving us an RSI test and daring us to sell it. No thanks, not tomorrow.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold is *normalizing* a bit as prices approach the 460 resistance. This market has been off because of the strength in the USD, but we could see a bounce at the nearby support.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Silver definitely showed us reluctance to go lower as prices held on to support. I might throw in a buy order above the nearby resistance at 742 in case the market rallies. With silver's big ranges this is not a trade for the squimish.

*BUY December Silver at 743.5
*Stop 738.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 767
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1100 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa backed up on us today hitting our exit stops for a small profit. I still like this market short, but today's close would suggest higher prices tomorrow.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee's getting close to an RSI test, so I'll re-do the sell order we were looking at earlier below last week's support. Nothing fancy here, but again we've got a big range market making this a very risky trade.

*SELL December Coffee at 8590
*Stop 8720
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $488 per contract
*Profit Target: 8025
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2060 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Wow! I haven't seen a day like that in cotton for some time! I don't know what caused the huge rally, but I'll find out. It's tough to say what to expect tomorrow as a pause wouldn't be out of the question; however cotton does have the ability to rally for several days before quitting.
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November OJ OJX5
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It's rather unfortunate that OJ gapped our buy order a couple of day's back as this is turning out to be a very nice little trade. Look for a reaction at 102 and another chance to buy.
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October Sugar SBV5
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So much for trying to sell sugar. I guess this market is a bonafide bull market and you won't hear me talking about shorting it for a while.
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