Erich's Update for Thursday, September 22, 2005
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Market Update for Thursday, September 22, 2005 ================================================== ==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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Nothing new in the Aussie as the market continues to chop. Still looking for something to trade here, but I don't see it.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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We got gapped on the buy order this morning, but RSI continues to test the trendline. I don't think we're going to see the Pound head much higher, so I'll run the sell tomorrow.
*SEE December British Pound at 179.27
*Stop 180.03
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $475 per contract
*Profit Target: 176.53
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1712 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD is definitely struggling with resistance and RSI is heading lower. Expect lower rates tomorrow and another chance to buy off the testpoint.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The Euro showed us support at 121.50 today as the market made a nice bounce. The trend is still down, so if we see rates rally I'll trail a sell order. I'll hold off one more day before placing my sell below the 121.50 support.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Chop-city in the Yen as the market took back yesterday's bear move and then some. I still think rates are heading lower, but this is a little too crazy for me right now.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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The Peso gave us a nice bounce off the 91.700 resistance today which is making me keen to sell tomorrow. You could run the original plan, or tighten the numbers as follows:
*SELL December Mexican Peso at 90.950
*Stop 91.450
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 88.425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1260 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swiss Franc continues to be choppy today. Today's session smacks of a pullback move in which case we could expect rates to find resistance soon before heading lower.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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Crazy day in the USD as the market continues to struggle with resistance at 8850 - 8860. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow as we got an RSI break today.
*BUY December US Dollar Index 8867
*Stop 8837
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8997
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Is Gas making a topping formation? I think so, but I'll wait for confirmation of resistance before getting on board.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating Oil also seems to be topping out, but like Gas I'll wait for prices to confirm resistance before selling.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude ran into resistance at 6830 which seem to give the market pause. A lower session here tomorrow will get me serious about selling again.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Got the hiccup we were looking for, but today's session was abnormally small. I think I'll give it another day before committing to anything.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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We got a nice fill on our DOW trade today as rates continued lower through support. Time to bring exit stops at least to breakeven or above the 10460 resistance for tomorrow. First profit target is support at 10343.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Ditto for the NAS as the market also broke support finding our sell order. Bring exit stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First target is support at 1535.5.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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I guess I should have sold the S&P anyway. ;-( Not to worry, we should get another chance off support at 1210.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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The Corn channel continues...so I'll continue to run the same trade.
*SELL December Corn at 204 3/4
*Stop 207 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 195 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
OR
*BUY December Corn at 209 1/4
*Stop 205 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 220 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Oats OZ5
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I'm tempted to buy oats higher tomorrow as prices seem to be holding support. It's not the best trade, but I'll buy a break of tomorrow's high and cover under the 158 support.
*BUY December Oats at 160 3/4
*Stop 157 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 169 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $450 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November Rice RRX5
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Rice definitely traded higher today. Needless to say I'm disappointed we didn't take the long position we were thinking of, but that's okay, we'll get another chance in a day or two.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy Meal tagged our exit stops this morning taking us out of the trade with a little over $600 in profit per contract. I still like the short side here, but I think we will see a more substantial pullback for the next few days.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil officially became a bull market today as prices traded higher. We've got resistance above the high at 2360 and 2390 which might hold up prices long enough for us to buy.
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November Soybean SX5
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Beans retreated from support today. I still like this market short, so I'll run the sell order again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get filled.
*SELL November Soybeans at 566 3/4
*Stop 572 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 550 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat is still bouncing all over the place. Today's close looks like higher prices will follow tomorrow, but I'm just watching for now.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Now Feeders are teasing us by heading a little lower. I don't think the market has much downward momentum however and will continue to look long. If we see prices retreat to support at 111.50 I'll update the entry parameters.
*BUY October Feeder Cattle at 114.025
*Stop 113.425
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 116.925
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1450 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle also fell off today, which is a welcome sight. The bullish session could hint of higher prices tomorrow, but I would like to see them continue lower to nearby support at 8450 before buying.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs are looking much more bearish and I do expect prices to fall tomorrow. Since we're in bullish territory I'll forego a sell right now, but I'll be watching the 6130 support for a chance to enter short.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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I'm still watching copper for a good buy signal. The market seems like it is ready to trend again...but I'm not sure.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold is holding support, and I know I'm probably going to regret this, but I'll hold off buying at the moment. The market is so extremely overbought I'd like to see a bit of an adjustment...even a little one.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Silver's following gold's lead, and I'd like to handle it the same way.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Steady decline in cocoa today found our sell order at the end of the session. If you ran the trade that long then you're currently short, if not consider selling below the 1350 support tomorrow.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee gave us a reaction to resistance today. I might look at selling below this week's low, but this is a high risk trade to say the least. The best we can do for exit stops is the support on today's low, so let's hope for a strong breakout if prices head lower.
*SELL December Coffee at 8590
*Stop 8720
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $487 per contract
*Profit Target: 8040
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2060 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton is totally without trend...and it shows. Prices ran into trendline resistance at 5200 today, so if we get a reaction here I'll look to sell again.
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November OJ OJX5
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OJ's smallish session, and the fact that it held support makes me think we will see prices continue higher tomorrow. I'll place a buy order above this week's high and look to cover the trade below support at 9730.
*BUY November OJ at 9845
*Stop 9725
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 10250
*Approximate Profit Potential: $607 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Sugar SBV5
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We had sugar cornered, but the market squeezed past our entry order by gapping us a couple of ticks. Too bad as prices made a huge decline today. We're at trendline support so we'll see if we get a bounce tomorrow.
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