Erich's Update for Thursday, September 15, 2005
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Market Update for Thursday, September 15, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The Aussie did head higher today, but on a gap which makes for less predictable trading. Think I'll still keep this one on the back burner for now.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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A crazy *fade* type day in the Pound today as prices opened high and moved against the opening gap. I have no idea what to expect from this market right now, so we'll just watch.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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Not a stellar day for the CD, but we are getting close to another RSI testpoint which could signal a new buying/selling opportunity. It might need another day (or two) to get there though.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The Euro never got high enough to find our entry order today which was a good thing as the day wasn't very strong. The trendline is holding which would suggest that rates will continue higher, so I'll run the trade again tomorrow.
*BUY December EuroFX at 124.17
*Stop 123.73
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $550 per contract
*Profit Target: 127.17
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3750 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Gap 'n fade, that's my new nickname for the Yen as that's all this market seems to do. Still watching tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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Definite divergence in the Peso as rates are falling off but RSI is heading higher. This is a sign of instability, which would suggest that we could see a hiccup very soon. Bring stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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Not a good day in the Franc as the market broke resistance twice before succumbing and falling to support - whipsawing our trade in the process.
I'm not too happy with this market right now as I think we had the right idea, but got in too early. Nothing new tomorrow.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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This trade looked so good on the surface, only to do the same thing the Swissy did to us, but in reverse. Here the market broke support twice today before backing up and stopping us out of our trade.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Unleaded bounced slightly today but not quite enough to get me buying tomorrow. I know that a continued bounce looks likely, but still apprehensive.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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I said I would regret not buying/selling today, and I do as heating oil prices had a very strong, predictable session. Nice to know the ole hindsight is still 20/20.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude also rallied strongly along with heating oil today. I knew I should have gotten more serious when the market showed us support, but with a market like crude you can never be too sure.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Another market showing us a gap 'n fade type of day. There must have been something in the air as a lot of market's responded this way today. I'll run the buy again tomorrow, but with the hook in RSI lower rates are looking more likely.
*BUY June Eurodollar at 95.835
*Stop 95.775
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 96.055
*Approximate Profit Potential: $550 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow continued lower today as expected. It was a rather strong day, which was not expected however. We might see the market show us some support as we're trading near the 10570 line.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Nice day for the NAS bears as the market fell quickly to the 1600 support line. There is some support here that caused a previous reversal, so we might see the NAS hold up here tomorrow as well.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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As usual the S&P outdid the other indices in how far it dropped off today. We now find the market also near support at 1230 which could hold it up tomorrow.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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I'd like to sell corn tomorrow; however I'm a little hesitant with the oversold situation in the market. While prices don't have to reverse from an oversold market, it is more likely to find support when it's down here.
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December Oats OZ5
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A big opening gap in Oats this morning as prices faded the open here as well. If you waited for opening range to expire you would have avoided the whipsaw as price never got above 158's resistance again.
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November Rice RRX5
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The Rice bounce continues and we continue to look for the market to show us resistance. First target is 680, just above the market, followed by stronger resistance at 690.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Caught a break in the soy markets as price moved away from our exit stops today. There is enough room to bring stops in above yesterday's high to take a little risk out of the trade for tomorrow.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil made a run at our stops today, but couldn't find them. I'm not too happy with the high closing price, especially with stops above the 2260 line. With a little luck we'll se a reversal from here tomorrow.
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November Soybean SX5
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Still holding our own in the big Bean market, but I'd really like to see the bears step up and take this market lower already. Each day we spend in limbo is another chance for the market to stop us out.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Serves me right. This is why I don't trade a market the day after a loss - something's too unpredictable about it. Well I learned my lesson. No trade in wheat tomorrow.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeder's are still holding support, but just barely. It does look like prices should fall off tomorrow, especially with the RSI hook, but we'll seel.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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A similar day in cattle as prices went hunting for stops - and given the range I think they found a few! Probably will see lower prices tomorrow.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Big reversal to support today. If you didn't take profits yesterday then you would have had no choice in the matter today.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Copper continues to flirt with the price trendline today. I was looking to buy copper long, but this are pretty crazy prices we're trading at...I think I'll leave it alone tomorrow.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Here we are again at our RSI testpoint for tomorrow. I'd like to see a bounce and prices head lower, but we're not in the prediction biz so we'll let the market decide. If it's a small day we can set up another channel trype trade very soon.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Silver held support today and traded higher. I'm not sure what to expect from this market but RSI has broken the trendline, so higher prices might be the result.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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No bounce from cocoa as prices went all the way to 1420's support. This is a very important resistance line for the bulls, and if they don't pull it together here then we'll be in a bear market.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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How do you make coffee rally? Threaten to sell it! Big day for coffee as prices rallied right fromt the open. If this continues tomorrow we should see another RSI test and a another chance to sell.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton held support at 4950-ish today. We should be looking to sell a break of support, but I'm going to wit antoher day - I think cotton's heading higher.
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November OJ OJX5
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Nice session for our OJ trade as prices never dipped any lower and made nice gains to the upside. RSI is hooking a bit, so if you want to protect profits this is the time to bring the stops up tight. If you're trying to let the trade run, place stops below today's low.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Here we go again...sugar looks like it's stalled and it might be a good time to sell (I still think this market's top-heavy), but I'll resist the temptation to go against the trend.
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