Erich's Market Update for Tuesday, September 28, 2005

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Market Update for Tuesday, September 28, 2005
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No trades from Tom for a few days, he had an accident with a drill bit and safety glasses...well, you can imagine. The bandages come off Thurday!

"A wise man is never busy and a busy man is never wise." - L. Yutang
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The AD is hovering around support at 7500. If we see a bounce tomorrow I'll look at buying again, otherwise we might have to get serious about selling.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound continued lower today but came up short of our profit target. You'll want to bring your exit stops in a bit as the market is looking pretty bullish and we might see a bounce tomorrow.

First profit target remains support at 176.53.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD also looked more bullish today as rates rallied right from the open. I'll look at buying the CD on a break of the 8600 resistance just above the market tomorrow. Exit stops go below the nearby support at 8575.

*BUY December Canadian Dollar at 8607
*Stop 8573
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 8747
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1400 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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A bit of a bounce in the EC today, but nothing to get too excited about. This market is still in a solid downtrend for the moment, although I think we will see a bit of a rally starting tomorrow.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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The Yen stalled today which is not an indication of anything in particular; however it is a chance for us to get our exit stops at least to breakeven. Alternatively you can bring stops in above today's high if you wanted to protect a little profit as a bounce seems likely tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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Caught a break in the Peso today as the market continued lower away from our exit stops. Bring exit stops to breakeven for tomorrow.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5 ----------

The Swiss Franc is also finding *soft* support today as rates rallied from the open. You'll want to tighten stops according to the weekend plan, or simply put them above today's high.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD showed us the inverse of the other currency markets today as rates traded lower overall. Like the other markets you'll want to bring your exit stops in a bit for tomorrow's session.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Hurricane Rita had a greater effect on this market than I figured as Gas rallied a bit today. I'm not ready to buy just yet as this market is extremely tipsy at the moment.

Nothing new tomrrow.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Caught a break in Heating Oil as the market gapped our sell order thereby voiding our trade - good thing too as prices would have wasted no time whipping us out of the trade.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude gave us a reation, albeit an early one, to the 6630 support today. See how support and resistance plainly tells you where the likely reaction areas are, even if you don't know the circumstances behind them?

Petty cool, huh?
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED continued lower today and I'm kicking myself for not selling it last week when I had the chance. It shouldn't be too much longer before we get another chance to sell this market though.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow rallied a bit today and if we get another higher session tomorrow I'll look at trailing a sell order below the low.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Same thing in the NAS as the index picked up a few points. If we see a higher session tomorrow I'll trail a sell order below the low. If we get a reaction I'll sell the low the day after.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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You guessed it. The same plan applies for the S&P.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Corn stopped us out of our buy today. I'm not too surprised though as it was a countertrend position, which is a long shot to begin with.

I normally don't trade the same market after a losing session so I'll hold off corn and see if the breakout sticks.
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats also backed up today which might confirm the resistance last week. I might consider selling oats if the market can continue lower tomorrow.
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November Rice RRX5
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I'm still looking for rice to pullback a little further before we look at buying again. The market looked a little bullish today so hopefully it won't run away on us tomorrow.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy Meal filled our short order today as prices broke nearby support. You could leave stops where they are for one more session or bring them closer to the 174 resistance line.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil continued lower today, but the session looked a little bullish by the higher closing price. If we see prices trade higher tomorrow I'll look at buying above the resistance.
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November Soybean SX5
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A smallish day found our sell order today...but just barely. I'm not usually too happy about getting a marginal fill like this, but hopefully we'll see prices continue lower tomorrow.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat continues to be choppy. I'm still keeping an eye on this market, but there's not much to trade at the moment.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeders continue to stall today. I'm still looking for another chance to get into this trade, but not tomorrow.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle had a bit of a range today and if you brought your exit stops over the weekend you might have gotten stopped out. If you left your stops back you rode out the range and have a chance to bring them up today to breakeven.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hog stalled on resistance today and give us another chance to buy the market on a resistance break. If we get a reaction I'll get more serious about selling.

*BUY December Lean Hogs at 6337
*Stop 6287
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 6497
*Approximate Profit Potential: $640 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Yep, that's what I get for trying a countertrend trade in copper as the market did some serious backing up on us today. I'll be passing on this one tomorrow.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold's looking a little more aggressive today, especially the higher close. If we get a reaction tomorrow I'll look to buy again.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Same thing for silver.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa inched lower today. It wasn't a huge session so leave exit stops where they are if you dare, otherwise bring them a few ticks above today's high.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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There goes coffee lower today, but the opening gap would have kept us out of the trade. I'll look to try and take a trade closer to support.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton gapped our sell order today, but it looks as though we might have had the right idea about the market. I hope we'll have another chance at selling if we see a test of 4940 - 4950.
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November OJ OJX5
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A small day for OJ as prices found resistance at 100.50. I would like to see a reaction here so we can get another chance to buy this market, but until then I'm just watching.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar is still holding support and while I would like to sell it again I'm a little gun-shy after getting whipped out of a couple of other countertrend trades.
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