Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, August 10, 2005
==================================================
Market Update for Wednesday, August 10, 2005
==================================================
"The secret of success is constancy of purpose." - Benjamin Franklin
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
September Australian Dollar ADU5
----------
We got the lower rates we were looking for in the Aussie but the opening gap and the higher close don't make this market look all that encouraging for tomorrow.
----------
September British Pound BPU5
----------
Another small day in the BP today as the market recovered a bit of yesterday's gap. I'd love to see a bit of a retracement as that would give us an excellent buying opportunity.
I could place a buy above yesterday's high, but I think I'll wait for confirmation before getting on board. I just hope the market doesn't run away!
----------
September Canadian Dollar CDU5
----------
A bit of a wishy-washy day in the Canadian Dollar today with the market trading firmly between support and resistance. We can bracket this range and trade the breakout side, but I have to admit I'm a little concerned about the upside resistance at 8350 causing a problem.
*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8287
*Stop 8263
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 8367
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
OR
*SELL September Canadian Dollar at 8209
*Stop 8233
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 8109
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September EuroFX ECU5
----------
Same tight range as what we were faced with yesterday in the Euro means we deal with the market as before and bracket the support and resistance and trade the breakout side.
*BUY September EuroFX at 124.33
*Stop 123.83
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $625 per contract
*Profit Target: 126.93
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3250 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
OR
*SELL September EuroFX at 123.09
*Stop 123.63
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $675 per contract
*Profit Target: 121.07
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2525 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September Japanese Yen JYU5
----------
Nothing was moving today as the Yen found a little support from yesterday's action. Still sticking with the same plan for tomorrow.
*SELL September Japanese Yen at 8939
*Stop 8957
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 8847
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September Mexican Peso MPU5
----------
The Peso seems to have found some support as the market traded slightly higher today (on the close). RSI is also hooking which would suggest that rates are likely to increase - at least for the short term.
*BUY September Mexican Peso at 94.075
*Stop 93.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 97.750
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1837 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September Swiss Franc SFU5
----------
Looks like I didn't give the Franc quite enough room on the downside as the market dipped low enough to find our sell order before reversing and whipping us out of the trade. From the intraday chart I almost thought we were going to ride it out, but the bulls pushed the market higher by closing.
While I normally don't follow up trade a market I've taken a loss in the day before, I will run both trades for the Franc again tomorrow, but give the short side a little more room still.
*BUY September Swiss Franc at 7983
*Stop 7963
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 8097
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1425 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
OR
*SELL September Swiss Franc at 7937
*Stop 7957
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 7877
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September US Dollar Index DXU5
----------
It should be not surprise that we're considering bracketing the US Dollar as well since we have this market also trapped between support and resistance.
*BUY September US Dollar Index at 8837
*Stop 8809
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 8923
*Approximate Profit Potential: $860 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
OR
*SELL September US Dollar Index at 8747
*Stop 8787
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 8627
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
September Unleaded Gas HUU5
----------
Gas reacted to the weekly resistance at 186 today as prices dropped off slightly. The bull trend is still intact however, and I'm trying to figure out another buy scenario, but the risk amount, relative to the "projected" profit target won't give me a doable trade.
If we see prices dip a little lower we should be able to put something together.
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
Heating Oil came up just short of our first profit target before backing off today. If you had your stops below the close or the 177.70 area you would have been stopped out in today's range with a handsome profit!
We should plan another trade above today's high, but I would welcome a bit of a pullback to refresh the market. Notice we've switched to the October contract as September nears expiry.
*BUY October Heating Oil at 184.55
*Stop 183.20
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $567 per contract
*Profit Target: 194.90
*Approximate Profit Potential: $4347 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
October Crude Oil CLV5
----------
Ditto for Crude as we saw a similar "flinching" session today. Look to buy a breakout above today's high.
*BUY October Crude at 6545
*Stop 6495
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 6790
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2450 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
The ED tagged us today as rates reacted to nearby support. I was hoping we would see the market touch the support line before rallying, but that didn't happen.
I also would like to see at least one more iffy day before we put together our next sell order. We've made a rounded top formation here, so we could be due for a bigger bounce.
----------
September mini-DOW YMU5
----------
While we have similar setups in all three mini's the Dow seems to be the weakest to me at the moment. I'll let this one alone and see if we get another rally.
----------
September mini-NAS NQU5
----------
The NAS showed us support today and rallied higher allowing us to buy above today's high. Notice where support came? Yep, right on the 1598-ish line which we will use to cover the trade if we get long.
*BUY September mini-NAS at 1615.5
*Stop 1597
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $370 per contract
*Profit Target: 1697
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1630 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
September mini-S&P esU5
----------
The S&P took a nice bounce off the trendline today inviting us to buy the market long tomorrow. I'll give it a little extra room just to try and stay on the right side of the market.
*BUY September mini S&P at 1241.75
*Stop 1235.25
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract
*Profit Target: 1286.75
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2250 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
September Corn CU5
----------
Corn fell low enough to find our sell order today as prices just dipped through the 217 - 218 line. Can't move the stops just yet, but hopefully we'll have a chance to get the trade to breakeven tomorrow.
----------
September Oats OU5
----------
Small day for oats today as the market traded within yesterday's range. Think I'll pull the order for tomorrow and see what gives.
----------
September Rice RRU5
----------
Got filled on our rice buy today as prices made a late day rally to find the order. You could bring stops under today's open if you wanted to take some risk out of the trade, otherwise leave stops for one more day.
----------
September Soybean Meal SMU5
----------
Sure...now you head lower. Too late though as we're just watching right now...and tomorrow as well.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOz5
----------
I'm wanting to sell bean oil, unfortunately we've got a rather nasty band of support at 2300 just below the market. I'm not sure if we'll get a bounce here or not, but I have to stand aside for now.
----------
September Soybean SU5
----------
Gap-o-rama in the bean market today. I'd like to look at shorting beans as well, but we've got a similar problem like that in bean oil. The bears are definitely looking stronger though.
----------
September Wheat WU5
----------
Wheat continued lower today allowing us to bring stops at least to breakeven, or above today's high if you prefer.
First profit target is support at 310 1/4.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Feeders had another bearish session but not nearly as strong as yesterdays. I don't see anything here I would put money on, so I'm standing aside for the moment.
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Cattle didn't find our sell order but the parameters still look good; however each day that the market does not go lower makes it that much more likely it will head higher instead - and this also increases the riskiness of our trade.
*SELL October Live Cattle at 8042
*Stop 8092
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 7855
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
February Pork Bellies PBG6
----------
Bellies are on their way to 8180. Let's wait and see what happens when they get here.
----------
October Lean Hogs LHV5
----------
Hogs fell off a bit today. I think we could see the market decline a little further until we see support at 5770.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
September Copper HGU5
----------
Big drop in copper as prices fell to support in the 158 area. This is important support as it is also near the trendline. If it holds we'll buy again.
----------
August Gold GCQ5
----------
Gold continued to fall today. Look for prices to test support at 430 before we get a possible reversal and higher prices again. Standing aside for tomorrow.
----------
September Silver SIU5
----------
Silver "felt" the 695 support line today as prices traded a little higher. I almost considered selling below today's low, but with silver I'll give it another day to sort itself out.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
September Cocoa CCU5
----------
Good day for the cocoa bears as the market made a strong move to the downside. You could bring stops just above today's close if you wanted to "squeeze" the market, otherwise consider using intraday resistance at 1415 and 1420.
First profit target is support at 1385.
----------
September Coffee KCU5
----------
If you brought your exit stops in yesterday you would have been stopped out on the open. If you left them back a bit then you're still short this market. Today's indecisive day doesn't look too welcoming for tomorrow, so you'll want your stops at breakeven for Wednesday.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton continued slightly lower today. You should bring your stops above today's high to take some of the risk out of the trade (if you haven't done so already).
First profit target is support at 4947.
----------
September OJ OJU5
----------
Gee...maybe I've had OJ wrong all these years! ;-)
The market gave me a hardy "welcome back" today as prices found our first profit target quite easily. If you didn't exit on target you should at least bring stops in above 9300 for tomorrow as this is a beefy looking support line and a reaction could be likely.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Typical Sugar day as prices broke support and stopped us out of our trade. We'll have another chance at this market but for the time being we're watching.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at Admin@OptimusFutures.com
<< Home