Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday, August 5, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, August 5, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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Seems like I made an entry faux pas when I put together
the Peso order. The order should have read buy at 93.775
instead of 93.77. Sorry about that, but I'd never traded
the Peso before and didn't find the error until the broker
told me.

Turns out it might have been a lucky break as the market
made a halfhearted rally through resistance today, but
finished the day rather weak. It's not all bad though as
now we now that we know the market's upper limit we can
buy above here and cover below the nearby support.

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 94.075
*Stop 93.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 97.750
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1837 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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September Heating Oil HOU5
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Heating Oil made a quick about face today stopping us
out of our short trade. RSI has also broken the trendline
so this market is looking quite a bit more bullish than
it was the other day.

I don't normally like to take a trade again the day after
a loss, so I'll cool off a bit and see what happens
tomorrow. I think tomorrow's session could confirm the
direction prices are ready to take - hopefully they won't
run away on us.
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September Unleaded Gas HUU5
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Like Heating Oil, Gas is also looking much stronger as
a bull market than a bear market. Today's session formed
resistance on the high, but no matter how hard I looked
I couldn't put together a reasonable looking trade...
unless you wanted to risk $1000!
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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We might be a little early looking to re-enter the ED
trade, but we do have a couple of close support levels
which we can use to start and cover a trade.

I'd like to see the ED bounce around a couple more days
before committing but just in case:

*SELL June Eurodollar at 95.515
*Stop 95.565
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.345
*Approximate Profit Potential: $425 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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The mini-NAS did indeed begin its pullback today.
I think we could see the market get as low as 1585
before recovering, but for the time being I'll
continue to look for better buying opportunities.

*BUY September mini-NAS at 1640.5
*Stop 1622.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $360 per contract
*Profit Target: 1697
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1130 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Corn prices continued lower today, which was a pleasant
surprise as I was anticipating a slight bounce. We're
about two-thirds of the way to our first profit target
so you might want to squeeze the market going into
tomorrow.

The "best" place for stops is still at the 228 resistance;
however this has a lot of profit at risk. You might want
to consider placing a stop closer to today's high, or maybe
even above the close by a few ticks.

First profit target is support at 220 1/4.
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat prices had a rather modest session today, not
making too much of a gain to the downside. You could
adjust the stop either to today's high or breakeven
if you don't mind getting stopped out before the weekend.

First target is support at 310 1/4.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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The parent soybean contract is showing us a price
trendline test, so it will be interesting to see
if prices recover from here or head lower. Whatever
happens in the big bean market will eventually
trickle to the other bean markets like oil and meal.

I'll run the same trade tomorrow since the figures
are sound, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a rally.

*SELL September Soybean Meal at 206.7
*Stop 209.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 197.1
*Approximate Profit Potential: $970 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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5: MEATS
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Hogs entered their pullback phase in earnest today as
the market traded slightly lower than the other day.
In spite of the lower prices today, the market closed
fairly strong and as such we might see a recovery as
early as tomorrow.

I don't like placing orders like this before the
weekend, but....

*BUY October Lean Hogs at 6092
*Stop 6032
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 6295
*Approximate Profit Potential: $810 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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August Live Cattle LCQ5
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There we go! Cattle gave us a big pullback today and
is just short of support. If we see a bounce off
support tomorrow then we will be in position to buy
again.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Got the bearish day we were hoping for today in copper.
RSI also broke the trendline, which doesn't necessarily
mean anything, but with the low closing price I might
wait to see if we get more of a pullback before buying
in again.
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7: SOFTS
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October Sugar SBV5
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Same plan of attack for sugar tomorrow as what we did
today: bring stops at least to breakeven, but if you
wanted to protect some earnings, bring them just below
the 10.00 level.

We've got about $350 in accumulated profits as well, so
no one would blame you if you wanted to make those stops
tighter still.
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September OJ OJU5
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Nothing new in OJ.
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September Coffee KCU5
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The 105.50 support level proved to be the right number
as prices couldn't pentrate here today. Leave stops
below here for tomorrow again - hopefully we'll see a
bit of a rally before the weekend.

First profit target is resistance at 111.90.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, August 5, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=115-03 HI=115-12 LO=114-24 CL=114-29

We began the day buying at 115-03. They came and got us I'd rolled to B/E at -07. I tried
to buy -04 and missed it, unable on the fill. Shame too as we made a nice run to 115-12
which ended up the hi of the day. I sold 115-07 and exited at 115-01 for 6 ticks. That's all
I could wring out of 'em today. Another really disappointing day.

The close at 114-29 has us locked on 115-00 or 114-16 for tomorrow. -08 and -24 if a
good setup accompanies.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=96.015 HI=96.025 LO=96.015 CL=96.020

Still in watch mode for the setup to materialize.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=8275 HI=8281 LO=8235 CL=8236

I sold 8270 and was stopped out at 8252 for $180. All the same numbers for tomorrow.
I will add 8220 to the mix for tomorrow. I'll sell a break below or buy a failed retest as
it heads north.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=7939 HI=7988 LO=7931 CL=7975

I bought 7962 and was stopped at 7972 for $125. We'll play the same numbers for
tomorrow.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=684.80 HI=685.40 LO=672.60 CL=673.60

I began the day selling 682.40 and exited at 680.60 for $180. Next up we sold 679.80
which we exited at 678.20 for $160. Next up we sold 679.20 and bailed at 675.20 for $400.
A bit later I bought 675.30 and exited t 674.70 for a loss of $60. I'd had enough for the day.
Had I been able to sustain my focus a bit longer there was a pretty easy trade selling the
later break below 675 and jumping out at 673.

All the same numbers for tomorrow. I'm going to add 690 as a number. Anybody wanna'
take a shot at explaining a justification for doing so? I think it would be an interesting
exercise.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=441.50 HI=445.00 LO=441.40 CL=443.70

I pushed the envelope a bit today. I thought the early action of rising to 442.50 then
diving to 441.70 was as good a confirmation setup as we've seen in recent times. I bought
442.00. We rolled right up to 445 and died ... twice ... I bailed at 444.70 for $270.

$10 channel again tomorrow. I will also play 443.00 tomorrow selling a retest that fails or
buying a break above.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=52.90 HI=53.19 LO=52.20 CL=52.29

I got a sell done at 52.50 ... don't ask me how. I see it on the chart, but don't believe it.
We went straight to 51.85 ... end of a good run, ladies and gentlemen ... what do we do?
That's correct ... bail!! I'm out at 52.00 for $250. I then bought 52.08 and bailed at 52.38
for $150 more. That was all I had the stomach for today ... roller coasters do that to me.

All the same numbers from TT and this weeks updates again tomorrow.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=1495 HI=1505 LO=1481 CL=1491

We sold 1498. Finally after a scare at B/E we got a break lower. Hey, another end of a
run bail setup. I'm out at 1480 for $180.

Same numbers for tomorrow. We can sell a failure at 1500.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.38 1/2 HI=2.39 1/2 LO=2.37 CL=2.37 1/2

Uncanny ain't it? I sold .37 1.2 and stopped out at 2.38 1/2 for a $50 loss. Bought 2.38 1/2
and stopped out at .37 1/2 ... another $50. I'd seen enough.

I'll play 2.38 again tomorrow ... sucker that I am.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.41 HI=3.43 1/2 LO=3.38 1/4 CL=3.39 3/4

I sold 3.41 3/4. After about an hour of watching paint dry I bailed at 3.39 1/2 picking up
2 1/4 cents. I got back the Corn losses but not much to show for the day. I'll go with 3.42
again tomorrow. I'll also sell a break below 3.38 or buy a failed retest there.