"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, August 24, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, August 24, 2005
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I was up early today and feeling pretty good, feeling strong so I traded today. I'd call it a 50% effort in that I limited my activity to a few markets. I will distinguish the real from the oberved trades as we work our way through the various markets.

We will have a Webinar tomorrow. Erich will be MIA so I will be holding the fort in his absence. It will probably NOT be the usual 2 hours but I'll do my best to make it worth showing up. Hope to see you there.
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-03 HI=6-24 LO=6-02 CL=6-17

We had a tough time getting started today as the market threw a couple early fakes at us. We bought 116-03, came within a point of getting stopped at B/E. We then failed after touching -09 so I opted out at -06 for plus 3. That left me in trouble as the low of the failure turned out to be ... you guessed it ... -06. I then had to wait to see -08 before I could get back in which I did at 116-09. From there we rapidly made out way to 116-15 only to fail and dip back to 116-10. Normally I'd have dumped it at -11 but since we didn't get in until -09 I let it go. We resumed the climb eventually making it to 116-24 where we failed. I exited at -22 for 13 ticks. We bounced back up to -24 and failed again. I sold 116-23, I bailed at -19 for another 4 ticks. We made 20 ticks with max risk of 5 points of our own stake, $625.

The close at 116-17 has us very close to the 116-16 line. We will focus there or 117-00 although I think we'll have a very difficult time seeing our way there. Do not be surprised if we don't get our first shot of the day until 116-00.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.012 HI=.017 LO=.010 CL=.012

Still watching and waiting.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=42 HI=66 LO=18 CL=58

Another power move higher. If we get a shot at selling a failed retest of 8360 ... that's a slam dunk with a stop at 8367. I doubt we'll get that as the night time guys have already got it down to 8333. We'll also take up an ambush stance at 8320 selling break lower with a stop at 8323.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=03 HI=08 LO=88 CL=88

It hung out all day inside our numbers. I'll stay with the same numbers for tomorrow ... 7900 and 7850.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=9.00 HI=9.80 LO=2.30 CL=8.60

Fun day! Big roller coaster dive and then an easy ride almost back to the open. Ku-ching. I opened the window with a sell of 659.20 which I exited at 657.40 for $180. We climbed back to 659.10 which I viewed as a failed attempt at 660 so sold it at 658.70. The run south ran out of gas at 652.30 so I exited at 653.10 for $640. Yee haw! I turned right around and bought 653.20 about 15 minutes later. The Russell chugged back to 659.20. I could hardly believe my eyes it was so picture perfect a reflection of our numbers. Out at 658.40 raking in another $520. We probably could and should have made one more trade but I was outta' gas. It looks as though we'd have banked another $200 at minimum. Not counting that we picked 'em off for $1340 and never had more than $150 at risk of our own money and that for only about 15 minutes before we rolled the stop to B/E.

All the numbers for tomorrow and the rest of the week. Remember 651 is a player.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=4.80 HI=5.00 LO=3.30 CL=4.30

Chop, chop, chop. Nothing for us. Same ol', same ol' ... $10 Channels.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.95 HI=.45 LO=.65 CL=.25

I bought breaks above 49.00 3 times today and 3 times I was stopped at B/E. Same numbers from TT for tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=20 HI=26 LO=05 CL=10

Cocoa danced around between our numbers but never gave it up to us. Same numbers ... 1370, 90 and 1430 for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.27 HI=2.28 1/2 LO=2.23 1/2 CL=2.24

We hit it ... 2.28 1/2 ... right out of the box ... and then dropped 4 cents. No trade. Let's stay on the same numbers but add selling a failed retest at 2.28.

If you had the trade pre programmed to buy at 2.28 1/4 on a stop you probably got engaged and are swearing at me as you would have dropped a penny and a quarter. If you're not able to watch and are preentering trades you might want to consider using Erich's work on opening range or widening the entry a tad. Otherwise this is going to happen to you now and again. Of course the solutions I just offered have drawbacks as well. You need to decide which more suits you.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.38 HI=3.41 1/2 LO=3.34 1/4 CL=3.36 3/4

Nothing done today. Same numbers for tomorrow.