"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, August 23, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, August 23, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-04 HI=6-12 LO=5-22 CL=6-08

The day opened with a fairly easy chance to sell 115-28. It stalled at 23 and your management should have had you out not worse than -25 for a small gainer. The big trade of the day ramped up next. I don't think there was enough there to buy -22 but I thought the set up at -24 was pretty clear. I just happened to be watching and took it buying -25. I bailed at -08 as it went right to 116-10 and showed failure. Cool by me. Out with 15 ticks.

The close at 116-08 plays right into my comments in TT from the weekend about 116-16 being a stout ceiling and we'd be pretty much range bound between 115-16 and 116-16. We'll be looking hard at 116-16 or 116-00 for tomorrow. Use -08 and -24, just don't make it your first trade, -00 or -16 have to come first to set the other two in motion.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.012 HI=.012 LO=.007 CL=.012

Still watching and waiting.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=89 HI=17 LO=80 CL=16

Remind me again why I wouldn't buy the break above 8280. Geesh. I'll stay on the same numbers for tomorrow.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=03 HI=08 LO=88 CL=88

We could have gotten off the sell on the break below 7900 today. It would not have produced much and I certainly would not have held it overnight. You should have been out with $100 +/-. I'll sty with the same numbers for tomorrow.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=4.70 HI=9.10 LO=2.40 CL=9.00

We were hanging around 656 as the window swung open for us. Looks like we should have sold at 655.70 and had to exit about 656.30 for a small loss ... maybe $60-70. It should have been a reverse there followed by an exit at 657.60 or .70 for a bit over $100. It then looks like we should have bought 656.50 or so and exited at around 657.50 or so for another small winner around a $100. Next in line from our numbers was a sell at about 655.70/60. This took us down to 652.40. That's below our 653 but not all the way to 649 so we would have wanted to be gone as it broke back above 653. Call it out at 653.40 for maybe $230 sounds reasonable. According to the numbers we should have then bought 654.20/30/40. We made an easy run up to 657.30 so we should have been poised to bail if we slipped back below 657 which is what it did. We should have been gone no worse than 656.60 for another $220 or so. It got real choppy for a bit between 655.50 and 657. We probably would have been flat here but might have jumped a sell at 655.70/80 which didn't work so well. We should have reversed at 656.30/40 losing a little and now long. We made a nice climb to near 660 topping out at 659.10. Again on the "once broken gone on the pullback" theory we should have bailed not worse than 658.70 for about $230 or 40. Worst case we might have gotten banged by the little spike ther eback to 657.90 ... even at that we should have made $150 or so.

All the numbers for tomorrow and the rest of the week. I'm adding 651.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=4.50 HI=5.70 LO=2.60 CL=3.00

Nothing for us as a good sized gap marked the open. Same ol', same ol' ... $10 Channels.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.25 HI=.50 LO=.10 CL=.86

Pretty easy buy at about 48.20 if you were on our numbers. You should have been gone as it broke 49.20 or .10 ... you should have bagged no less than a buy at 48.20 and out at 49.10 for a minimum of 90 points, $450. I thought this was pretty easy so if your results don't match up relatively closely you need to review this trade and determine why not.

Same numbers from TT for tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=90 HI=17 LO=89 CL=13

My bad, gang. We had FND on the 18th but since I was sorta' indisposed I missed it in the weekend edition of TT and still wrote it up as September. I caught it this morning.

I will buy a retest of either 1370 or 1390 that fails to press lower. I will also buy a breakout above 1430. 1367, 1387 and 1427 are the stops for each of the levels mentioned. The goal is 1530 in all cases. Keep the stop trailing on the heels of higher moves and get the trade to B/E at either 1380, 1400 or 1440 if engaged.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.25 1/2 HI=2.26 3/4 LO=2.24 1/2 CL=2.26

Not quite there yet. Same number for now.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.39 HI=3.41 1/2 LO=3.34 1/4 CL=3.36 3/4

Some days this ol' S&R stuff is like shootin' fish in the proverbial barrel. Today was such a day. You should have had an easy sell at 3.41 or so and a smooth ride right on down to 3.34. Text book, perfect. You should have walked away with an easy 5, 6 or even 7 cents.

Same numbers for tomorrow.