"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, August 16, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, August 16, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=5-26 HI=5-28 LO=5-18 CL=5-21

They dealt us a pretty narrow range today. I missed the first move down as it just touched -28 and then broke hard. I bought -21 and was stopped at -25 for 4 ticks. I bought -21 twice more and was stopped at B/E on both. I bought -20 and exited at -25 as the end of session drew near. 9 ticks on the day. About the only way to look at it is +9 is better than a loss. Total take $281.

The close at 115-21 has us intent on 115-16 and 116-00. Again, we'll look at any -08 or -24 where the set up is compeling.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.002 HI=.005 LO=.002 CL=.005

Still watching and waiting.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=72 HI=77 LO=31 CL=47

We didn't quite get there today putting in a low at 8331. Almost scary ain't it? I'll play the 8330 tomorrow if they give us a chance.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=01 HI=08 LO=80 CL=91

A welocome failure today but no where near drastic enough the engage our number at 7960. I'll stick with that for tomorrow and see if we get some follow thru.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=0.10 HI=9.00 LO=6.70 CL=6.40

I sold 659.70 and exited at .90 for a small $20 loss. I then bought 660.20. I bailed at 662.60 for $240. I next sold 659.60 and was stopped at 660.10 losing $50. I sold 659.50 and exited at 657.10 on the "once broken theory" picking up $240. Next up I sold 659.50 and stopped myself out at B/E. I bought 660.40 and exited at 665.40 for $500. I had to take a little breather. I then bought 665.40 and exited at 668 for $260. I closed up shop. I was out of gas.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=8.90 HI=0.40 LO=6.30 CL=7.60

WEell, whadda' ya' know. They gave us one today ... a little one. I sold 448.60. After we broke 447 I rolled the stop to 447.10 they immediately came and got us with a little bit of slippage ... out at 447.20 for $140.

Same ol', same ol' ... $10 Channels.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.50 HI=.65 LO=.80 CL=.93

Another day of the bear's favorite game. We gapped lower and just kept going. Watching, but seeing nothing.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=79 HI=90 LO=55 CL=56

Another new contract low. I think an interesting set up is present at 1356. I will buy a break above that number with a stop at 1353. Target is 1400. Keep the RRR well in control along the route. This is not a trade for smaller accounts or weak hearts.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.26 1/2 HI=2.27 1/4 LO=2.23 CL=2.23 1/4

The gap lower never let us approach the starting gate. Almost dropped to contract low. I'll buy a bounce off 2.22 1/2 tomorrow with a penny and a quarter stop. A very weak day to say the least. If we can't find reasons to bounce off the last line of support Corn is in trouble with a capital "T'.

This pretty much puts a stake in the heart of our option spreads. Barring somehting bordering on miraculous we are toast. I WILL remeber this the next time I've tripled my money .
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.33 1/2 HI=3.35 1/4 LO=3.30 CL=3.31 1/4

Just as did Corn they leapfrogged under our number leaving us with nothing to do. When we finally got to 3.32 it zoomed thru it so strongly I couldn't get it done at a price better than 3.31 so I just let it go. I'll buy a break back above 3.32 or I'll sell a failed retest there as it turns lower. That is right where we are in the overnight session so we'll see if they give us a play in the morning.