"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, August 25, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, August 25, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-23 HI=6-31 LO=6-11 CL=6-19

We opened and climbed very quickly to 116-31. It fell very quickly thwarting our attempt to get one sold at -28/-29. As frequently happens it bounced back up, this time to -30 allowing us the get the sell done at -28. The market made it to 17 and quickly reacted with a bounce. We got kicked out at -19 for 9 ticks, $281. We followed this up with a sell at -14 which was promptly stopped out at B/E. I buttoned it up for the day.

The close at 116-19 leaves us watching 116-16 and 117-00 for tomorrow. The failure at 117-00 was pretty convincing but not definitively so. We retain the ability to get above 117-00 but I think we'll look back in a weeks time and see this number functioned as an effective ceiling during the week.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.015 HI=.020 LO=.015 CL=.017

Still watching and waiting.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=61 HI=15 LO=53 CL=02

We opened at 8360 and headed north from there. Nothing done. I'll stay wth the same numbers for tomorrow.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=70 HI=30 LO=70 CL=17

It gapped above our entry at 7900. I'll stay witht he same numbers tomorrow.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.30 HI=3.90 LO=2.60 CL=5.70

I bought 656.40 and stopped at 655.90 for a small $50 loss. I then bought 656.60 and exited at 661.30 for $470. Next we bought 660.40 and exited at 662.90 for $250. We then sold 659.70 which was exited at 653.10 for $660. I ended the day there as I didn't have the focus to carry on. We should have been lkong from about 654.40 and probbly out at 656.70 worst case which would have added another $230 or so.

All the numbers for tomorrow and the rest of the week. Remember 651 is a player.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=3.90 HI=5.70 LO=0.60 CL=2.20

I bought 441.50 today and exited near end of day at 442.00 for $50. $10 Channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.60 HI=.80 LO=.15 CL=.67

Cotton gapped to far above 49.00 for us to get in. Looks like we should have sold 48.50 according to TT weekend and been stopped at a small gain or B/E depending how you managed it. You couldn't have done better than making about 25 points, $125. Same numbers tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=22 HI=30 LO=03 CL=12

I didn't trade this one either. If you followed TT weekend you should have sold the failure at 1430 and been stopped out at 1412 or 13 for maybe $150 to the good. Nothing showed itself after that. Same numbers tomorrow ...1430, 1390 and 1370.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.23 1/4 HI=2.24 1/2 LO=2.21 3/4 CL=2.22 1/4

Nothing here for us today as we dropped back near contract low. I'll keep my eye on the TT numbers but will also buy a break back above 2.24 1/4 or a failed retest below 2.22 1/2 tomorrow. Stops at a penny and a quarter back. Some might be thinking a stop back at about 2.21 1/4 which from the chart certainly makes sense. However from an RRR point of view I don't think it can be justified.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.31 1/2 HI=3.32 1/2 LO=3.25 3/4 CL=3.28 1/2

I sold 3.31 1/2 today and exited at 3.26 1/2 for 5 cents, $250. Same numbers from TT plus I'll buy a failed retest at 3.25.