Erich's Update for Tuesday, August 30, 2005
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Market Update for Tuesday, August 30, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, to the subscribers, anyway. If you'd like to get yours hot and fresh and BEFORE the markets open, please go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com
"It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." ~Albert Einstein
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Looks like I should have shorted the Aussie Dollar when I had the chance last week. Today rates continued lower and now we're too far into the trade to try and jump in. Holding off for the market to show us support.
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September British Pound BPU5
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The Pound confirmed the RSI breakout today as rates fell sharply lower. Regardless of where you placed your stop you would have gotten hit today, the only question is for how much.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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The CD continues to look weak, but today's range is a little too scary to try anything with.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Turns out that getting stopped at breakeven last week was not such a bad thing as rates dipped lower today. This market is technically in a downtrend right now, but I think I'm going to hold off for a bit.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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The Yen fell to test trendline support today. If we see a higher session tomorrow we'll look at another buy, but the way this market has been bouncing around we might see a break.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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That's cold. The Peso tagged us near the low of the day as rates briefly broke support only to rebound higher. We're still short, but I'm not too encouraged about riding this bounce out tomorrow.
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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The Swissy fell to support at 7900 today. If this support level holds tomorrow then we'll look at another buy, but this market is very sensitive to the US Dollar, so if it continues higher we could see a break lower.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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The USD is showing us higher support for the first time in a long time. We got stopped out of our short trade today on this bounce back to the trendline resistance.
If the new support level holds then I think we will see the makings of a new rally.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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"Whacko" is the word which best describes today's Gas session. Don't ask me what to expect tomorrow, because I haven't got a clue.
We'll have to give it a few days to settle down.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating oil was a little calmer than Gas today, but still a crazy session overall. We're testing RSI and I think lower prices should follow, but after today's range I don't think I dare try anything.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Interesting where Crude found support today, don't you think? 6630, that's only a couple of ticks off the 6640 line we were watching last week. Either way this market is on the "put-away-and-don't-look-at-for-a-couple-of-days" list.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED gave us the pause we were anticipating as rates tested the 9550 support line. If you're currently short this market you could bring stops in to the other side of 9560, or just leave them at 9563 for tomorrow.
If you're looking to get into this trade you might consider:
*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.53
*Stop 95.595
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $165 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $710 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
NOTE: This trade will become less risky if the market continues to test support tomorrow without breaking through.
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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I was liking this market short, but not after what I saw today. Standing aside for tomorrow.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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The NAS was a little more subdued than the DOW, but the big range today is scaring me off tomorrow.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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Like they say in the gangster movies "fugedabouit".
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Not fair! We had this market dead to rights and then it bounced today hitting our stops for a $75 loss. I'm still liking the short side, but I'll hold off tomorrow.
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December Oats OZ5
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Not a stellar day in Oats, but enough of a decline that we can safely bring our stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is support at 142 3/4.
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September Rice RRU5
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Rice is having some serious trend issues. I think I'll avoid it for a while.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Got stopped out of our September short this morning for a $250 profit per contract. The small bounce was halfways expected as the big Bean market is fighting monster support, but a new sell order is just around the corner.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil took us out at breakeven on today's reversal. Not to worry though, we'll have another sell very soon.
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November Soybean SX5
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I should probaby trail and entry order below today's low; however I think I'll give the market one more day before planning a trade. RSI is getting close to a testpoint and this could signal our next sell.
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat is showing us some support; however trading has been so choppy I think I'll just watch for tomorrow. I'd like to take a trade here, but I just don't see anything too promising right now.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Sure, now Feeder's give us a *normal* day. No room to move now though as prices are near the resistance from the contract high. I would expect a reaction here tomorrow.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle are looking more bullish, but will probably take Feeder's lead and bounce off resistance tomorrow. If it does then we might be able to put something together for Wednesday.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Hogs gave us the bounce off the neckline today. Now it remains to be seen how far prices will retreat. The first support is 6225, which is substantial, but if it fails we could see 6100.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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For a market that was trending so well Copper has definitely off the tracks. Expect more choppiness tomorrow. If we get down to serious support, say at 163.25, then we might get serious with a short trade.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold continued to channel today. While I was favouring a bullish break, I have to admit that things are looking a little more bearish, especially in RSI. I'll run the same buy for tomorrow and will throw in a sell trade as well.
*BUY December Gold at 447.5
*Stop 444.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2180 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
OR
*SELL December Gold at 439.3
*Stop 442.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 425.7
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1360 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Silver SIU5
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Silver tagged our hovering exit stop today as prices traded a few ticks through it before reversing. While I would have liked to try and ride the market lower we're still walking with $700 in profit per contract, so it's not all bad. ;-)
If we get another hesitation tomorrow (I hope) then we'll place another sell order.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa's indecisive session is making me think we'll see a bounce off resistance tomorrow. I'll wait for the confirmation before selling, just in case the bulls have a little more left.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee is showing us some support today, and I'm considering selling the low tomorrow; however I think I'll wait to see if we can get another hit or two before committing.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Black Monday in the Cotton thanks to a huge opening gap. This is the worst gap I've had in over a year as well as one of my worst losses in a long time - $500, ouch! I'm a little P.O.'d with this market to say the least.
Definitely nothing here tomorrow.
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November OJ OJX5
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Looks like hurricane Katerina is lending some support to the OJ market. You can run the trade again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get a fill.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar's back to it's normal song and dance - higher one day, low the next. Nothing here tomorrow.
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