Erich's Update for Thursday, August 25, 2005
==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, August 25, 2005
==================================================
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
September Australian Dollar ADU5
----------
Still on hold for a chance to sell the Aussie Dollar. I know we're getting close, but I don't think tomorrow's the day.
----------
September British Pound BPU5
----------
Guess who bought the high of the day? Yep, you guessed it. I hate it when that happens! We're still long but I have to admit that today's session isn't all that impressive. I've got my fingers crossed for tomorrow.
----------
September Canadian Dollar CDU5
----------
Darn, I'm still kicking myself for not buying the CD when I had the chance. We're on hold right now until we see resistance again.
----------
September EuroFX ECU5
----------
The Euro got close, but no cigar. The day did look bullish on the surface and you could certainly run with the same trade again tomorrow. It's still HIGH risk however, so judge for yourself if you can afford the loss if things go sideways.
*BUY September EuroFX at 123.03
*Stop 122.69
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 124.97
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2425 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September Japanese Yen JYU5
----------
The Yen continues to channel and bounce around. I'll pull the trade tomorrow although I do expect to see rates find support.
----------
September Mexican Peso MPU5
----------
Nice day in the Peso today as rates fell off sharply. We're faced with the same management problem for tomorrow however. We've got over $900 in profit as of the close. If you're trying to let the trade run, bring stops in above today's high.
First profit target is 89.775.
----------
September Swiss Franc SFU5
----------
I'm getting sweaty palms trading the Swiss Franc as the market made a run to our entry, but didn't find it today. I'll run it again tomorrow, but it is a HIGH risk trade.
*BUY September Swiss Franc at 7933
*Stop 7897
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 8107
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2175 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September US Dollar Index DXU5
----------
Sold the US Dollar today as rates broke support. So far so good as the market continued lower for most of the session and you could bring stops above the 8800 level if you wanted for tomorrow.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
October Unleaded Gas HUV5
----------
Caught a flyer in Unleaded today. Great...higher prices at the pumps, again. At least we picked up $1200 in profits as of the close. You'll probably want to cover the trade at least below the 185.50 support. First resistance target is 192.60.
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
Heating Oil took off on us today. This is the session I was looking for YESTERDAY! Did you see how nice the trade would have worked?
----------
October Crude Oil CLV5
----------
Darn it! We had this market dead to rights, and it just wandered enough during the day to whipsaw us before taking off again! It would have been an exceptional day if we had nailed this one too.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
The ED inched higher today as rates found the 50% retracement level. I think we might see a reaction here and am tightening the sell order to reflect today's numbers.
*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 95.59
*Stop 95.655
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.245
*Approximate Profit Potential: $860 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
September mini-DOW YMU5
----------
Sure, now the Dow decides to make a move. Give me a hestiation tomorrow and we'll be all over selling you before the end of the week.
----------
September mini-NAS NQU5
----------
Still looking to see what happens at 1560. It's the last line for the bulls to pull their socks up.
----------
September mini-S&P esU5
----------
We called the 1210 support today, now let's see if it gives us a reaction - pretty please!
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Yes I mixed up the numbers in yesterday's corn trade. Thanks everyone for pointing out my error. Still liking the trade for tomorrow.
*SELL December Corn at 219 3/4
*Stop 223 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 205 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $725 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
I'll run the Oat trade "as is" tomorrow; however we've got slight divergence in RSI and I wouldn't mind seeing prices trade back above 158, that way we can use this support to sell from.
*SELL December Oats at 156 3/4
*Stop 160 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 142 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $700 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
September Rice RRU5
----------
Rice is on a roll as prices continued to rally today. We might get another chance to enter off resistance at 728, but it might take a few days for the market to give us a tradeable signal.
----------
September Soybean Meal SMU5
----------
Sold Meal late in the day as prices made a quick dip to the downside. I'm not sure if getting filled this late is a good thing or not, but I guess we'll find out tomorrow.
If you didn't sell today you could certainly look at selling today's low tomorrow. First profit target is support at 176.3.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
You could run with the same Bean Oil trade tomorrow or you could tighten the entry a bit to short below today's support.
*SELL December Bean Oil at 2257
*Stop 2287
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 2123
*Approximate Profit Potential: $804 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
September Soybean SU5
----------
Beans tried to fill our short order today but couldn't break support. You might want to give the market a few more ticks to the downside, or just leave the trade the way we set it up originally.
*SELL September Soybeans at 601 3/4
*Stop 610 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract
*Profit Target: 566 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September Wheat WU5
----------
Wheat continued lower today allowing us to bring stops at least to breakeven, or today's high, if you're looking to let the trade run. If you want to tighten up on the trade, consider placing stops above the 315 intraday resistance.
First profit target is support at 300 3/4.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Feeders are looking like they're going to dip, but I can't sell a market that's in an uptrend...at least not yet.
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
I might regret this but I'll hold out for another test of the 8225 resistance. If we get that then I'll get serious about selling again.
----------
October Lean Hogs LHV5
----------
RSI continues to test the trendline so we might see a bounce tomorrow. It would have been nice to see a trendline test as well, but I guess we can't have everything.
*BUY October Hogs at 6235
*Stop 6175
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 6425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
September Copper HGU5
----------
Ouch! Got tagged by copper today as prices reversed and fell through our exit stops. I normally don't trade a market the day after a loss, but RSI is showing us another trendline test, this time with a break to the downside likely.
I hope I'm not adding insult to injury.
*SELL September Copper at 165.30
*Stop 167.05
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $437 per contract
*Profit Target: 158.15
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1787 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Still liking the gold trade as prices tested support today. We could treat the current formation as a channel and trade the breakout, but I'll concentrate on the long side for now.
*BUY December Gold at 447.5
*Stop 444.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 469.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2180 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
September Silver SIU5
----------
Sold silver today as prices made a good break through the 695 support. We could use the other side of 695 to hide exit stops if you wanted to, otherwise leave them where they are for one more session.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCU5
----------
Cocoa continues to battle the resistance above the market. I'll look at pulling the order today and re-entering if prices confirm resistance tomorrow.
----------
September Coffee KCU5
----------
Coffee fell off resistance pretty hard today, coming right back to old support. We can run the sell order again tomorrow, but bear in mind this can be an extremely volatile market.
*SELL September Coffee at 9380
*Stop 9515
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 8635
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2800 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Caught the move to the downside today as prices broke through support. RSI hooked off the trendline nicely confirming the resistance. Hopefully we will see prices continue lower tomorrow so that we can tighten our exit stops.
----------
September OJ OJU5
----------
Nothing in OJ right now. Since the market slipped past us last week we're on hold.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Stopped out of Sugar today as prices made a quick about face. I'm beginning to remember why I avoided trading sugar for so long.
<< Home