Erich's Trades for Thursday August 11, 2005
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Erich's Update for Thursday, August 11, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Got an RSI and trendline bounce today which looks good for tomorrow. I wish this market was showing a stronger trend but it's not - it's still quite choppy, and this will add to our risk.
*BUY September Australian Dollar at 7671
*Stop 7639
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $320 per contract
*Profit Target: 7849
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1780 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September British Pound BPU5
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Gap and rally, gap and rally, that's the BP's theme as of late. Missed another chance to buy this market, but I would consider it likely that rates head higher.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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Certainly not a stellar session for the Canadian Dollar today as rates came up short of our resistance above the market. I'll run the same trade again tomorrow, but I'm a little concerned about it turning out. Notice I bumped up the risk level again.
*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8287
*Stop 8263
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 8367
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
OR
*SELL September Canadian Dollar at 8209
*Stop 8233
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 8109
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Yuck! Another aimless day in the Euro, although it did range enough to whipsaw us out of our position. A very expensive day to say the least.
Standing aside for tomorrow.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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Big reversal in the Yen today. In hindsight I should have seen the higher support level from the day before, which would tip us off to higher rates.
Nothing here tomorrow.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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The Peso is flirting with the 94.000 resistance again. While the trend isn't as strong as it was before we could still look at buying a breakout above here.
NOTE: it will be much safer to trade the day after the breakout, but if you wanted in early:
*BUY September Mexican Peso at 94.075
*Stop 93.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 97.750
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1837 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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You know what really burns me about today's whipsaw? Besides the obvious loss I mean...it's because this trade is looking like a good buy, yet the market's aimless wanderings continues to catch us and whip us about.
Nothing here tomorrow. I'm too ticked off.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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Well at least we managed to avoid a whipping in the US Dollar as well, but it was close! We're currently short the Dollar right now, so you might want to bring your exit stops in a bit. The *best* placement is still above today's high, but if you wanted to lessen the risk a bit use the 8760 area to cover the trade.
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2: ENERGIES
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September Unleaded Gas HUU5
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A good day trading day in Gas, but not one we were able to take advantage of in position trades. I suspect we will see a reaction tomorrow as we get near the "other" trendline after which we'll look at another buy.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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While the daily chart shows the market rallying strongly the intraday chart shows a bit of a rollercoaster. While we certainly had the right idea about this trade the market rallied briefly from the opening bell, only to decline and stop us out of the trade. We'll be on the lookout for another buy...but not tomorrow.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude was a little more cooperative as prices didn't take us out of this trade. We're currently long crude and there is some room to adjust the stops if you choose. You can either bring them to breakeven or just below the 6520 intraday support area.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Moderate pullback in the ED today. The lower close might see rates continue lower again tomorrow, but I'm not too concerned about missing the move just yet. Ideally we will see a test of higher resistance first, maybe even 9560.
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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Yuck! What a day. Someone beat up this market with an ugly stick. Not touching this with a ten foot trading pole tomorrow.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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Not a good day in the NAS either as we ended up buying the high only to get stopped out a few hours later...I hate it when that happens!
Standing aside tomorrow.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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The emini cold cocked us today as the index briefly broke resistance before falling off again. In spite of today's stupid range, I still like the market long. Standing aside tomorrow.
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Corn never gave us a chance to lower the stops as prices took a bounce off of yesterday's support. A perfect example of the market "fudging" the support area just enough to get us into a bad trade - it happens. Nothing here tomorrow.
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September Oats OU5
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Another small day in the oat world. Prices are just bouncing around without any real trend. Think I'll continue to watch.
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September Rice RRU5
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We're still long rice, but just barely. I have to admit that things don't look so promising for tomorrow as RSI is hooking lower and might try to test the trendline. If you didn't bring stops in yesterday then it's probably a good idea to do so today - just under the low.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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I want to sell the bean complex in the worst way, but it's very difficult to do with all the support to the downside. Much of the support is near the 50% retracement which just serves to beef it up somemore. Standing aside for now.
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December Soybean Oil BOz5
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Ditto for Bean oil. The bears are picking up steam, but where do we get in?
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September Soybean SU5
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And with the big Bean complex, the bears are looking like they're going to try and take the market, but with all the support nearby entry is very difficult to determine.
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat was a little more cooperative than corn as we got out of this position without a loss. I still like the short side, now we just need to wait for another selling opportunity.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeders are right on the price trendline today and today's close doesn't give us ANY clue what to expect tomorrow. If we see a moderately higher/lower session I'll look to buy or sell accordingly.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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While the daily chart looks like we got whipped in actual fact we are short Cattle as the high came before the low. I'm not thrilled with the higher close however as it doesn't allow us any room to adjust stops. First profit target is support at 7855.
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February Pork Bellies PBG6
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Big move to the downside in bellies today, but this market isn't trending very well right now. I'll wait and see if get a reaction to today's support, but I don't see anything I want to put money on right now.
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Not quite to the 5770 support we're watching, but we're getting there. We might see another buying opportunity off the RSI test point.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Copper showed us some support today as prices traded higher. There is a bit of resistance on today's high which we could buy the market from, otherwise I'll wait for another test of the contract highs before getting in.
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August Gold GCQ5
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Hmmm...Gold is looking a little more bullish today, and I am tempted to buy the market, but given the high RSI I think I'll hold off for a bit.
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September Silver SIU5
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Silver followed gold higher today, but silver doesn't seem nearly as strong as gold does at the moment. I'll keep an eye on this tomorrow.
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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU5
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Small day in cocoa as prices are slowing as we get closer to the 1385 support. If you haven't brought in the exit stops, then this is probably a good time to do so. Bring them at least to yesterday's high and above today's high if you wanted tighter management.
First profit target is support at 1385.
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September Coffee KCU5
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Coffee did bounce higher today, but I'm not sure this is anything I want to get too excited about at the moment. Let's see what happens at the 108.50 - 109 area.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Nice day in cotton as prices made a strong move to the downside. We've got about $500 in profit as of the close so it's probably a good idea to bring your stops in a bit.
*Ideal* placement is above today's high, but you could also use the other side of intraday resistance at 5070 to cover the trade. First profit target is support at 4947.
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September OJ OJU5
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OJ reacted to support as we thought it would. I'd like to sell this market again, but am trying to figure out the best place to get in. RSI is hooking a bit, so maybe we'll see another trendline test before getting on board.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar stalled today which is actually kind of positive for the bulls. I still like this market long, but now we have to find the appropriate place to re-enter.
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