Erich's and Tom's Trades for Friday, August 12, 2005
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Erich's Update for Friday, August 12, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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September Australian Dollar ADU5
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Got a nice clean break in the Aussie Dollar today as rates rallied through primary and secondary resistance to find our order. Bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is resistance at 7849.
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September British Pound BPU5
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Yep, the Pound continued to rally today getting near our intended profit target. This market is beginning to trend very well and we'll look for another buy next week.
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September Canadian Dollar CDU5
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Darn, darn, darn! We had this one cornered but the opening gap voided our buy order. Nothing we can do with it now as we have to wait for resistance again.
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September EuroFX ECU5
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Day late...dollar short. Today the Euro decides to rally. I knew we were on the right side of this trade, unfortunately we didn't ride it out.
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September Japanese Yen JYU5
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Wow, the Yen is really making tracks to the upside. We'll wait for resistance and another chance to buy in when appropriate.
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September Mexican Peso MPU5
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The Peso continues to tackle the 94.000 line. RSI is at a test point so we will probably see a bounce tomorrow. For this reason I'm adjusting the entry a bit to reflect today's range.
*BUY September Mexican Peso at 94.150
*Stop 93.650
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 97.750
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1800 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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September Swiss Franc SFU5
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Don't even talk to me about this market...I'm still steaming from yesterday.
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September US Dollar Index DXU5
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Good day in the US Dollar as rates took a serious tumble to the downside. We're near the 50% level so we might expect a bounce tomorrow. Stops should at least be at breakeven or above the 8710 resistance.
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2: ENERGIES
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September Unleaded Gas HUU5
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So much for the resistance at the "other" trendline coming into play. A moon-shot day for Gas, but nothing we can deal with tomorrow.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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I'm not too happy with yesterday's ranging whipsaw only to see such a strong rally today in Heating Oil. We're approaching resistance at 195 which was our profit target. With a little luck we'll see some resistance here.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude continues to make up for the missed opportunity in the other two energy markets as prices rallied higher again today. Time to do something with the stops. If you're trying to ride the market higher (which isn't a bad idea) then you'll probably want to use the mild support on today's open.
Bear in mind that we have about $1300 in accumulated profits and it would sure hurt to give that back, so bringing stops closer to the close (maybe under 6660) wouldn't be a bad idea either.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED is getting close to reversing again, and tomorrow might be the day. I was hoping to get a little closer to an RSI test but just in case we see an early reversal I'll look to sell tomorrow below yesterday's low.
I'm never crazy about doing this before a weekend, but this market does seem to be trending very well. If rates continue higher we'll look at selling from 9560.
*SELL June (06) Eurodollar at 9542
*Stop 9547
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 9523
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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September mini-DOW YMU5
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I'm lookin' but there's nothing I see worth trying. Standing aside for tomorrow.
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September mini-NAS NQU5
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The NAS continues to bounce between support and resistance. We could look at bracketing today's range and trading the breakout but I don't think I want to hold this over the weekend.
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September mini-S&P esU5
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The S&P continues to look strong as rates continue to honour the trendline. I have a bad feeling this is going to be another "got in a day too early" market tomorrow. Standing aside, but I do expect a rally.
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4: GRAINS
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September Corn CU5
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Corn rallied a bit today, but I still am cautious about buying the market right now. If we see a lower session tomorrow I'll look at selling on Monday.
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September Oats OU5
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Ditto for Oats. The market is nearing resistance and I'd welcome a bear session tomorrow.
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September Rice RRU5
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As suspected, rice fell off today stopping us out of our trade. I'll wait for an RSI test before I look at re-entering...if at all.
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September Soybean Meal SMU5
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Don't you hate it when a market like Soy Meal gives you a set up for a Friday? I sure do. But the tight range of the last few days is too much to bear.
We still have all that nearby support to deal with, but if we get filled I'll swing for the fences and go for the ultimate profit target.
*SELL September Soy Meal at 201.7
*Stop 204.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 187.7
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1400 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Oil BOz5
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Getting a similar set up in bean oil, but it's not as inviting so I think I'll pass on this one.
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September Soybean SU5
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The big beans are giving us the same look as bean meal, so we'll treat the trade the same.
*SELL September Soybeans at 638 3/4
*Stop 644 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300r contract
*Profit Target: 618 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1025 contract
*RRR: 3 1/2
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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September Wheat WU5
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Wheat looks like it's going to try for an RSI test in the next few days. Standing aside until we get closer to important resistance.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Leave it up to Feeder Cattle to call my bluff today and rally higher. Okay, we can look at buying the high, but I have to admit I'm not all that crazy about this trade as the market trend is indecisive.
*BUY October Feeder Cattle at 107.12
*Stop 106.45
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $337r contract
*Profit Target: 109.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1187 contract
*RRR: 3 1/2
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Not a pretty day as Cattle prices traded higher, taking us out of our short trade. Similar setup to what we're seeing in Feeders and a buy is an option above today's high. I think I'll hold off though.
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February Pork Bellies PBG6
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Still waiting for bellies to smarten up...I know, you're heart broken I haven't given you a belly trade. ;-)
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October Lean Hogs LHV5
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Same ole stuff as yesterday. Still looking for a 5770 support test.
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6: METALS
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September Copper HGU5
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Copper inched higher today, but not high enough to get me to buy before the weekend. Ideally we'll see a contract high test tomorrow.
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August Gold GCQ5
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Gee, did I say Gold was looking a "little" more bullish? Talk about an understatement as prices made a huge rally today. Have to stand aside tomorrow though and hope for a reaction.
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September Silver SIU5
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Ditto for Silver.
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7: SOFTS
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September Cocoa CCU5
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Cocoa found our first profit target today. If you're still short this trade consider bringing stops to just above today's high.
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September Coffee KCU5
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Still waiting for something to happen here.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton made a run at our stops today, so you might have gotten hit...with a profit however. If you're still short this market then bring stops in above today's close as we're likely to see a reaction at 4950.
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September OJ OJU5
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OJ is trying to entice us to make another trade, but I don't think I'll bite before the weekend.
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October Sugar SBV5
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If sugar rallies tomorrow then that will be our cue that it's safe to re-enter the market.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, August 12, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=4-04 HI=5-00 LO=4-03 CL=4-29
We opened up with a pretty clear, I thought, set up at -08. When it finally gave me color ... green ... it was at -10 and never allowed me a better in than -11. I didn't take it but should have as it turned out. Oh Well. I sold -14 a bit later. I exited at -08 for 6 ticks. We backed up some and traded both sides of -08 for quite some time. I bought -09. We took off north with some gusto. We went thru -16 like the proverbial hot knife thru butter. I was stopped out at -23 after we'd touched -25. Out with 14 ticks. After a small pullback to -19, I bought 21. I was stopped out at -27 for 6 more giving me 26 total for the day.
Today's close at 114-29 has us looking up at 115-00 and south to 114-16 for tomorrow. Green light is o to trade -08 and -24 IF the setup is godd and strong.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.000 HI=.010 LO=.000 CL=.000
I got stopped out at 96.010 for a $25 gain. I'm looking for 96.020 to show. I'll take it short again on a failure or buy a break above .025.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=94 HI=44 LO=88 CL=31
We settled today at 8331. The only trade I'm interested in is selling a break below 8280.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=10 HI=41 LO=05 CL=32
The 8032 close leaves us in pretty lofty territory. I know I will sell a break below 8000. There's almost enough structure to do a trade right where we are ... buy a break above 8040. It's definitely a borderline trade. Lower risk tolerance people should leave this one alone.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=2.00 HI=8.20 LO=9.60 CL=7.30
We had very nice days on Tuesday an wednesday. Si did you if you just focused on our numbers. The full array of TT numbers for tomorrow plus we've added 668 to the mix.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=4.00 HI=2.70 LO=3.80 CL=0.90
$10 channel and 443 again tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.85 LO=.70 CL=.75
We're back near contract lows again. I will buy a failed attempt to break 49.50 tomorrow or I will buy a break above 50.60.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=79 HI=90 LO=55 CL=56
New contract lows set today. My hands are tied until a break above 1400.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.36 1/2 HI=2.38 3/4 LO=2.36 CL=2.38 1/4
I'll play a break above 2.38 with a buy and a break below 2.37 1/2 gets sold.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.37 HI=3.43 LO=3.36 1/2 CL=3.42 1/2
Buy a break above 3.41 3/4 after a bit of a pullback from today's close; sell a break below 3.41
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