Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday, July 19, 2005

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, July 19, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades.

"The best way for a person to have happy thoughts is to count his blessings and not his cash." - Anonymous
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=6 1/2 HI=3 LO=3 1/2 CL=0

It looks like we might have missed the remainder of this leg of corn's rally as prices pushed a little closer to the 265 resistance today. I expect to see a reaction here and maybe even a substantial dip, before prices possibly mount another run. Nothing here tomorrow.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=20 HI=35 LO=15 CL=80

Cotton prices fell off enough to find our short order today; however the market didn't quite have the downward momentum I was hoping for.

There was a bit of a bounce off today's low as prices anticipated support at 5100. We're still short this market but barely. Good news is that 5080 is a significant resistance level, as is 5100 where are stops are. If prices do back up on us, it will be a good signal to leave on.

First profit target is support at 4921.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=80 HI=25 LO=63 CL=89

Not much of a day in the bean oil market as prices still traded near the ranges of the last couple of days. Not quite sure what to expect from this market and I don't think Bean Oil knows what to do either.

I'll keep watching though. We could see further reinforcement of support and resistance in the next few days.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=50 HI=87 LO=20 CL=50

Cattle prices certainly didn't do as I thought they would today. The market held the support line firmly and actually didn't trade too much at all.

I do anticipate a bit of a bounce tomorrow but will continue with the short trade for the time being as it is with the trend.

*SELL August Live Cattle at 7797
*Stop 7857
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 7607
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=15 HI=44 LO=12 CL=39

Strong day in cocoa as prices bounced off support at 1415 and were strong enough to break resistance at 1430 to find our buy order.

There is enough room here to bring stops to breakeven (or slightly short of breakeven) if you choose; however we do not have a lot of money at risk, so if your account can stand it you might want to leave them where they are. We're at an important test point for the market resistance- wise, so we'll either see a break or bounce tomorrow.

First upside target is resistance at 1500 - 1510 (1507).
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=48 HI=4 LO=42 1/2 CL=52 1/4

A nice, steady session for wheat today as prices took yet another stab at the 342 support before bouncing higher. Resistance at 349 finally gave way as well as secondary resistance at 352 1/4, so we're long this market right now.

Did you notice the close? Yep, right on our entry, so there's not much we can do with the stops right now. I would have liked to have seen a higher close as the resistance is still intact...but we'll see what tomorrow brings.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=23 HI=64 LO=16 CL=33

Strange little day in the CD today as resistance held but support crept slightly higher. RSI is hooking, but nothing near a test point, so I'm a little suspicious.

Think I'll wait for a confirmation of support before trying to get on board here. If rates do trade higher I suspect we'll see another testing of the 8330 line before the market really takes off.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=9 HI=5.5 LO=8.5 CL=0.5

Wassup with silver giving us such a small range? Is there a report due out that I don't know anything about? Resistance took another tap today, and quite honestly it looks as though the market wants to trade higher; however it's technically in a downtrend so I'll keep looking short.

You can run with the weekend trade, or tighten the parameters to reflect today's session.

*SELL September Silver at 697
*Stop 701.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 671
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH (hey, it's silver)
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.74 HI=.74 LO=.72 CL=.725

Finally! I was beginning to think the ED wasn't going to move at all, but today the market went lower on a gap. Small session overall, but enough that we can at least bring stops to breakeven going into tomorrow.

First support target is 95.55.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, July 19, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-14 HI=6-15 LO=5-17 CL=5-22

The tight range I predicted wa even more so than I'd anticipated. For 3/4 of the day we traded in a quarter poit range, -08 to -16. I sold -13 three times all of them ending in B/E. Along the way I also bought 1 at -09 which I exited at -13 for 4 ticks. Late in the day I sold -07 on a break of -08. We kept dropping as we moved into the final hour. We spent half an hour bouncing around 116-01 to -04. Given that 116-00 was such a monster support number it was to be anticipated the market would struggle mightily before breaking it or bouncing significantly so I vowed to hang on until we had resolution. We finally got it in the form of a big dive touching 115-17. I exited at 115-21 picking up a nice 18 ticks giving me 22 ticks on the day, $687.

With the crumbling of support at 116-00 we could easily pull out another point or even 2 in short order. It would not surprise me in the least to see a 114-00 trade or lower by Friday. We'd never trade this view, I offer it up for reference only. Tomorrow we'll be ready to pounce at 116-00, 115-24 or 115-16. The market will be a little wobbly tomorrow as it deals with a bit of a hangover from the effort of breaking 116-00 so I'm willing to put -24 in play from the opening bell.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.055 HI=.055 LO=.040 CL=.045

I sold 96.055 today and have moved the stop to 96.065. We'll see. .040 is as close as we have to a line in the sand as weak in structure as it is. If we don't move thru it in the next couple of sessions I will lose patience with this trade PDQ.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=23 HI=64 LO=16 CL=33

The gap up was too big and the subsequent pullback was too small. lol. Result? No trade today. I'll sell abreak below 8220 tomorrow with a stop at 8233, today's close. Roll to B/E at 8210 and then pick up the management from TT Weekend.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=66 HI=86 LO=59 CL=62

We jumped around a bit, 25 points or so, only to settle at the smae ol' 62 from Friday. I'll hang on to my 7750 from the weekend for now. I'll bet they give us a shot before moving out in search of 7800.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=6.10 HI=6.60 LO=9.50 CL=2.00

Hello 666/665, how you doin'? The trading window opened with "Rusty" hovering about I sold 664.80 and was stopped at 665.70 dropping $90. I cheated a bit and sold 665.50. I thought the failure up at 666.60 was pretty telling ... dare I say an omen at 666? We didn't quite get down to 660 but the failure was visible, I thought. I'm out at 661.50 for $400.

Next up, I bought 1 at 660.40 and bailed at 662.00 for another $160. Bought again at 660.60 and was stopped at B/E. I then bought 660.60 and exited this one at 662.00 for another $140. Bought 661.10 and out at 663.10 for $200. Enough. I packed it in unable to sustain the necessary concentration.
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6: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=3.30 HI=5.00 LO=9.20 CL=0.20

I bought 421.50 and exited at 422.00 for a whopping $50. We fell back to 420. $10 channel again tomorrow. 420 is pretty stout support I look for it to hold despite the weakness of the close.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.20 HI=.35 LO=.15 CL=.80

Cotton opened gap down thru our prefered sell number at 5120 but soon rose back above and was kind enough to fail. I sold 51.20 and we immediately raced to 50.30. I've made the point 'bout a million times that you want to close out trades ib Cotton at the end of a big run regardless of the number the run ends at. 50.50 was a powerful number on top of the big run theory. I exited as fast as I could getting filled at 50.40 for 80 points, $400. Not too shabby for 25 minutes of effort. Oh yeah, where'd we close? 50.80 ... a pretty solid correction.

Tomorrow I'll buy a break back above 51.00 plus I'll keep atll the TT weekend numbers in play as well.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=15 HI=44 LO=12 CL=39

I bought 1422 and off we went. Once above 1440 I rolled to 1437 and was stopped right there. We made $150. For tomorrow the number becomes 1440. I'll buy the break above or sell the failure to press higher .
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.67 HI=2.73 LO=2.63 CL=2.70

More up tick but a very weak close. We poked through 2.70 hitting 2.73 before retreating to close at 2.70. I'm still figuring out how to untie my hands but it isn't coming to me yet. Just watching and managing my spreads as per TT weekend. Despite finishing up 2 cents in the contract the spread changed very little.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.60 HI=3.68 LO=3.56 CL=3.67

After a little early weakness Wheat made a nice run up to 3.68 before pulling back to settle at 3.67. I tried to buy 3.64 but couldn't get it, just wenmt flying right by me. Oh well. Watching tomorrow, looking for a chance to get something done either way off 3.64. We are down a couple of cents overnight. We'll see what we have to contend with in the morning.