Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday July 1, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, July 1, 2005
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Remember this is a long weekend...no updates on Monday!
Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades.
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=2 HI=4 1/4 LO=9 CL=2 1/4

Corn gapped our entry to the short side today. Too bad since it looks as though the market might make a run to nearby support. We're at a decent support level now at 219 and I would like to see another rally...but I'm beginning to wonder if we're going to get it. Nothing for tomorrow.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=40 HI=75 LO=20 CL=39

Cotton has not been behaving at all like I hoped it would. Prices took off higher again today as we were looking for a support test which never came.

Looks like we'll see a rounded bottom in the near future but I'll just be watching from the sidelines tomorrow.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=70 HI=75 LO=88 CL=15

I felt bad about yesterday's whipsaw in bean oil; however today's session renewed my appreciation for support and resistance. Yesterday's trade was argueably a little tight but while we incurred a small loss it could have been a whole lot worse if we didn't take our lumps when the market wasn't responding.

The parent soybean contract is at an important support level it will be interesting to see if support there transfers over into the bean oil market.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=25 HI=57 LO=00 CL=30

Cattle headed tentatively lower today as prices finished the day where they began - not normally a very good sign. As such I'm bringing my exit stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow's session in case we see a reversal.

Our profit target is support at 7772, but I'll be adjusting my profit order to bag some profits if we get anywhere near 7880. Not too keen on holding an open cattle contract over the long weekend.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=90 HI=90 LO=43 CL=52

Cocoa continued yesterday's drop with a significant dip in prices. If you were able to get on board yesterday you would have picked up some decent profits today.

There's support at 1430 which you will want to consider a profit target, and I'd probably look at covering a few ticks above the close as well. No point in holding cocoa over a three day weekend either.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=36 HI=38 1/2 LO=29 CL=31 1/2

Wheat prices continued lower through support today. Prices are likely to head lower tomorrow as well and test support at 325-26 which will be a significant support level for this market.

I'll be standing aside and watching.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=28 HI=88 LO=27 CL=63

Got stopped out of the CD this morning as the market failed to take out yesterday's high. This was a nasty day and might be the first sign of a possible lower session tomorrow. Nothing new here though.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=1.5 HI=0 LO=3.5 CL=7.5

Looks like silver's back to it's old tricks again. The market was heading lower quite nicely, when out of nowhere prices spiked and hit our exit stop taking us out of the trade.

Well, I did say I wanted to be flat silver before the weekend...and that's exactly what I got.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.04 HI=.07 LO=.98 CL=.01

Very similar day to yesterday as rates made a run at the resistance at 9607 before falling off. This is encouraging for lower rates for tomorrow, but of course there's no guarantee. If you can afford the risk you might want to leave the exit order as is, otherwise bring it in about halfway - to 9604-ish.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, July 1, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=8-06 HI=8-31 LO=8-01 CL=8-24

We closed at 118-24 making 118-16 and 119-00 the focus for tomorrow.

nothing that surfaced today with FOMC was all that telling. The close was weak with a capital "w". There is so much sentiment to seel this market right now I'm suspect short term on the downside. My best guess is to look for an early test od 119-00 and then a failure of significanr purportion ... emphasis on the "guess". Be ready to take it short but don't be too anmxios.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.185 HI=.195 LO=.145 CL=.150

We definitely got the break we have been sorta' lusting after. Couldn't take it given the rules we'd set. IU'll sell the break of 96.150 but I'd rather see a retest of 96.170 and sell there.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=28 HI=88 LO=27 CL=63

Ok, I'll cop. Our conservatism was unnecessary for the most part today. All I can say is better safe than sorry. Yes. our numbers would have produced profits in some of the markets we chose to abstain trading. Big deal, get over it. Tomorrow is another day and the profits foregone woul;d have neither confirmed our retirement nor made the difference in our children's college education. What we chose to do today was the right thing. Because we accept the premise of grinding it out a few hundred at a time the results of today, or lack thereof just doesn't matter. We did the right thing in light of the RRR potential.

We'll get after the CD tomorrow with the same 3 numbers ... 8100, 8120 and 8160.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=4.20 HI=9.10 LO=0.00 CL=3.10

We wre blocked from trading. All the numbers from TT tomorrow ... revenge day for us.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=8.50 HI=0.30 LO=6.70 CL=7.10

Another one where we'd have made a couple of hundred. $10 channel tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.75 LO=.20 CL=.39

I bought 55.55 and was stopped at 55.20 losing $175. Did it again and out at 56.45 for 90 points, $450. I'll buy the break above 56.50 or sell a failed retest there. Same deal at 56.00
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=90 HI=90 LO=43 CL=52

I sold 1475. Nice fill guys. I'm exited at 1448 for $270. I'll play 1437 tomorrow either way. I'll also buy a break above 1460.
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8: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.33 HI=2.35 LO=2.29 1/2 CL=2.31 3/4

We rolled out to December today. I bought 2.33 1/2 ...opps ... stopped at 2.34 1/4 for a small gain. Sold 2.34 1/4 and out at 2.30 1/4 for 4 cents, $200. Tomorrow I'll sell the break below 2.30, sell the failure to break above 2.33 or buy the break above 2.33.
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9: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.47 1/2 HI=3.51 LO=3.41 1/2 CL=3.44

Magic is Support and Resistance. I sold 3.49 1/2 and bailed at 3.43 1/2 for 6 cents, $300. Tomorrow I will sell a break below 3.42, buy a failure to go lower from there or buy a breakout above 3.44.