Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, July 20, 2005

==================================================
Erich's Update for Wednesday, July 20, 2005
==================================================
Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades
==================================================
1: SEPTEMBER CORN
==================================================
CU5 O=7 1/2 HI=7 1/2 LO=5 CL=8 1/2

Another typically crazy day in corn today as the bottom fell out of the market. Is this the end of the bull move? It might be, but I'd be looking for possible support to come at 242 before joining the bears.
==================================================
2: DECEMBER COTTON
==================================================
CTZ5 O=25 HI=30 LO=40 CL=79

Nice dip in cotton today as the market opened with a big gap to the downside. Prices never got close to challenging our exit stop in our short order.

Bring stops at least to breakeven, or intraday resistance at 5020 for tomorrow. First profit target is support at 4921.
==================================================
3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
==================================================
BOZ5 O=70 HI=75 LO=68 CL=76

Bean Oil prices shattered the 2525 support area today as the market fell off hard. I was thinking about shorting BO below today's low, but was a little apprehensive about the support here as well as a market's tendency to stall after a bigger move.

Think I'll sit on my hands tomorrow. If we see a hiccup it might be a little safer to sell.
==================================================
4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
==================================================
LCQ5 O=70 HI=60 LO=50 CL=27

Cattle rallied today as we expected. The market never threatened our sell order, but it was a "just in case" type of order. RSI is near a test point and we could see a bounce tomorrow; however I wouldn't mind seeing another higher session, just to give us a good selling price.

I'll run the short again tomorrow, just in case, but I think we'll be adjusting it tomorrow.

*SELL August Live Cattle at 7797
*Stop 7857
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 7607
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
==================================================
CCU5 O=35 HI=42 LO=19 CL=25

An inside day for cocoa today as prices were unable to break resistance. If you brought stops in then you would have been stopped out on the reversal. If you left them where they were then you're still long this market.

Prices have shown us resistance, so now it remains to seen if support will hold. If it does we should have another chance at taking this trade long.
==================================================
6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
==================================================
WU5 O=50 HI=50 LO=35 CL=38 1/2

Wacky Wheat backed up in a big way today hitting our exit stop for a $175 loss. I was a little skiddish about the 352 1/4 close yesterday because of it's proximity to resistance. The only good news is that we could pull the pin early to avoid bigger losses.

Nothing here tomorrow.
==================================================
7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
==================================================
CDU5 O=97 HI=30 LO=84 CL=18

The Canadian Dollar showed slight support of the 50% retracement level today. This isn't quite the pullback I was looking for as I thought we'd see something closer to 8160; however if we get a confirmation of support tomorrow I might consider a buy on Thursday.
==================================================
8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
==================================================
SIU5 O=.5 HI=5 LO=5 CL=8.5

I told you it was a HIGH risk trade, didn't I? Needless to say I'm not too impressed with silver's lack of commitment today. The market is merely ranging without sticking to any support and/or resistance breakouts, which is making it very difficult to trade with tight stops.

You could easily bracket the support and resistance and trade the breakout side; however I would continue to favour selling.
I think I'm going to give it a rest though and go look at a copper chart for a while.
==================================================
9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
==================================================
EDM6 O=.705 HI=.76 LO=.69 CL=.74

The ED bulls came gunning for our stops today but came up just a little short of our shorts. We're hanging in there, but just barely. Hopefully we'll see resistance hold and lower rates follow tomorrow.

First support target is 95.55.
==================================================
10: WILD CARD
==================================================
No wild card market - yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at Admin@OptimusFutures.com
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, July 20, 2005
========================================================
=======================================================
1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDU5 O=5-19 HI=6-08 LO=5-11 CL=6-01

We opened the day by moving lower, all the way down to 115-11 which turned out to be the low of the day. From there we began a climb that eventually took us back to 116-08. I passed on the break below -14 as it looked to me we'd run out of gas. I bought 115-20 as my first foray into the market. I exited at -26 banking 6 ticks. Next up I sold -27 and exited at -25 for 2 ticks. We traded sideways for half an hour establishing -24 as a force. I bought -25 and watched as we zoomed up to the high at -08. I bailed at -05 for 12 ticks. By then we were knocking on the door of the final hour so I closed up shop and took my 20 ticks, $625.

Pegging the high at -08 and quickly pulling back to settle at -01 returns us to the monster support area of 116-00 which bcomes our focus for tomorrow. Being so close to the line in the sand opens the door for 115-16 and 116-16 as well. I will be hesitant to do any quarter trades tomorrow but will if something shapes up as prominently as did 115-24 today.

Tomorrow Fed Chair Greenspan testifies before Congress. It will be his last apearance before them as he will retire early next year. This testimony is given twice a year by the Fed Chair. It is an event with the power to move the market. You know what, the more I think about and this and write to more I think I'll take off tomorrow. Let's do that. It just isn't the risk for a $500 trade. I'll be flat tomorrow and we'll take another look tomorrow night in the update.
========================================================
2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDU5 O=.040 HI=.055 LO=.040 CL=.050

We're still short into tomorrow from 96.055 with the stop at .065. Status quo. We'll see if we can weather hurricane "Greenie" tomorrow.
========================================================
3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDU5 O=97 HI=30 LO=84 CL=18

The big gap down put us on the sidelines. The combination of Greenspan testimony and the release tomorrow of Canada's leading economic indicators is a potent enough cocktail to convince me to sit out tomorrow.
========================================================
4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
========================================================
SFU5 O=88 HI=41 LO=81 CL=37

A huge gap lower here ... 70 points ... nothing done. I'll sit tomorrow out here as well.
========================================================
5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTM5 O=2.60 HI=1.90 LO=2.10 CL=1.20

When the trading window opened to us we were slippin' and a slidin' around 664. A classic example of the power of the S&R range played out at 666/665. We zoomed up to 665.80 ... remember, we have to wait for the top edge to be broken to buy. Never broke 666 so we sat tight instead of buying 665. It failed big time at 665.80 dropping back to 663.80 in the blink of an eye. No damage done. We bought 666.40. We bailed at 667.80 on the big failure at 668. Out with $140. I bought 666.30 again. We exited this one at 670.80 for $450. A very spectacular failure sent us back to 667. I was done before then with my total of $590 .

No trade tomorrow. To have an open trade on while Greenspan's mouth is open is NOT an attractive RRR.
========================================================
6: AUGUST GOLD
========================================================
GCQ5 O=9.70 HI=1.00 LO=8.90 CL=0.20

Nothing here today. $10 channel tomorrow.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.25 HI=.30 LO=.40 CL=.79

Big gap lower put us out of action right from the start. A beal blow to the chart structure. I'll buy a break above 50.50 tomorrow. The stop goes at 50.43 and we'll roll to B/E at 50.61. First target is 52.00. Keep RRR in a firm grasp.
========================================================
8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COU5 O=35 HI=42 LO=19 CL=25

We sold 1438, took it at 1420 for $180. I bought 22 and out at 30 for another $80.

1440 and 1420 are the magic numbers again tomorrow.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.67 1/2 HI=2.67 1/2 LO=2.54 1/2 CL=2.59

Holy Bat correction ... I'll sell a break below 2.56 tomorrow. The funds took profits today. The weather outlook is anything but encouraging ... divergent forces at work. We'll see who wins the tug-o-war.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.63 HI=3.65 LO=3.49 1/2 CL=3.52

We sold 3.64 and bailed at 3.64 for 10 cents, $500. Sell a break below 3.50 or buy a retest that fails and begins higher from there. Stops and rolls ... penny and a quarter.