Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday July 15th, 2005

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Erich's Update for Friday, July 15, 2005
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Scroll dow about halfway for Tom's Trades.
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1: SEPTEMBER CORN
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CU5 O=9 1/2 HI=4 1/2 LO=7 3/4 CL=0 1/2

Can you believe that corn came up one tick short of our profit target today? Expect a wishy-washy session going into tomorrow as traders are likely to ditch going into the weekend.

I'll look at taking 254 tomorrow if we can get it. Also moving stops in a little below today's close to protect profit as prices are likely to decline.
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=60 HI=90 LO=90 CL=84

Cotton price continue their rebound today as the market traded slightly higher. I'd like to see more of a pullback however, and maybe even a test of 5300 before looking to sell again.

Nothing here tomorrow.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=45 HI=48 LO=75 CL=85

Wow, crazy day in bean oil or what? I'm not quite as dissappointed that the market gapped us yesterday, this would have been a management nightmare!

But that's usually the case with gapping markets. Support and resistance *usually* helps us stay on the right side of the markets - and this is a good example.

No idea what this market is up to, but from today's session I'd say we were in for lower prices tomorrow. I wouldn't mind seeing a test of the contract highs though...but we'll see what we get.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=07 HI=35 LO=35 CL=95

Cattle prices stalled out today as the market ran headlong into resistance at 7925 - 7935. If this wasn't Friday I'd be all over selling this market tomorrow as I think a reaction to resistance is likely; however it is Friday and I'm not too crazy about holding an open cattle contract over the weekend.

Think I'll just wait and watch. If prices do decline, I hope they don't run away on us.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=96 HI=28 LO=139611 CL=09

Oh-oh. Did you notice the double tap on resistance as well as support? We've got nice parameters to either buy or sell the market from tomorrow (although I prefer the short side - with the trend), but if you think I'm uncomfortable holding cattle over the weekend, how do you think I'd feel about cocoa?

As per cattle, I hope this market doesn't run away tomorrow.
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6: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
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WU5 O=45 1/2 HI=49 1/2 LO=42 CL=44 1/2

Wheat prices stalled out today along with the other grains. The market's big opening gap and lack of upward momentum is a little concering for the bulls. I still think we'll see wheat trade higher; however I don't think it's going to happen tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=22 HI=31 LO=65 CL=82

The CD is really beginning to build up the support and resistance areas, as it is prone to do after a big rally. I would hope to see more of the same going into the weekend. This could give us a really good opportunity come Monday.
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8: SEPTEMBER SILVER
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SIU5 O=6 H=2 LO=5.5 CL=9.5

This is a tricky one as silver fell off to our intended entry right near the open. If you had an order ready and waiting you probably got filled only to get whipped a few hours later. If you didn't get your order in right away, consider yourself lucky as you got filled during the afternoon decline.

If you are currently short silver you can't really do much with the stops right now, but I'd look to get them to breakeven ASAP tomorrow.
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9: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM6 O=.775 HI=.82 LO=.755 CL=.77

A lackluster day for the Eurodollar as prices challenged resistance, but did not manage to break it. This is good news as we are currently short this market.

I'd really like to be able to at least the stops to breakeven, but we can't do that just yet. Have to hold stops where they are until rates continue lower.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, July 15, 2005
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Hi Gang, My apologies for my absence with the Daily Update last night. Since I had no recommendations in your hands there is no sense in discussing today's trades. I will instead devote tonight's update solely to planned trades for tomorrow.

I will not be trading tomorrow until after about 7am Cali time. Jacki goes in for some breast surgery tomorrow at 5 am and I will be there. It is not supposed to be a serious thing ... easy for the Doctor to say. I'm sure jack has a different opinion as do I. I'll let you know the outcome over the weekend. Here we go with tomorrow's menu ...
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-12 HI=6-26 LO=6-00 CL=6-07

Having said the above, I am going to give you the trades I did in the Bonds today because they were true to the ongoing methods and should have been readily apparent to any Bond followers.

I sold at 116-15 and exited at -03 for 12 ticks, $375. We followed that up with a buy at 116-03 which I exited at -09 after a bunch of failed attempts to move above -11 picking up another 6 ticks, $187. All totalled we walked with $562 ... a fair day's wage, I'd judge.

Tomorrow the 116-07 close has us eying 116-16 and 116-00. We have a final day of heavy reports with the juice to impact the market so we'll again sit tight for the first half an hour.

116-00 is a very strong support line at the moment, if we get thru there we could very easily unwind a point or more. On your toes, gang!
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.055 HI=.070 LO=.045 CL=.060

I'm still short from 96.080. If we do not break below 96.040 tomorrow I think the trade is suspect and will in all likelihood close it out. If I get out I will look at selling a failed retest at 96.080 or buying a break above.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=22 HI=31 LO=65 CL=82

I will sell a failed test of anything above 8330 tomorrow. I will also sell a break below 8280. The stops will be short on either one. The sell off 8280 break is at 8283; the stop on the failure above 8330 is at 8343.
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4: SEPTEMBER Swiss Franc
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SFU5 O=86 HI=16 LO=78 CL=95

First, let's clear up a goof on Tuesday. I reported a $00 winner, in fact, it was a $500 winner. I'm so out of practice on any currency other than the CD I just automatically was thinking in $10 ticks when the ticks in the SF are $12.50

I will buy a break above 7860 tomorrow. The stop needs to be below 7850. I'll use 7847.
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5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=0.70 HI=6.60 LO=3.70 CL=5.30

Trading window opened we were looking at 675. I sold 672.80 and bailed at 671.10 for $170. I then sold 672.50 and exited at 666.40 for $610. I was done. I gave results here because the numbers were up on the table.

All the weekend numbers plus the 673 and I'm adding 665.
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6: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=3.30 HI=5.00 LO=9.20 CL=0.20

$10 Channel for tomorrow. Will the 420/430 hold or will 420/410 prevail? Stay tuned.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.60 HI=.90 LO=.90 CL=.84

A failed retest at either 5050 or 51.00 gets bought. A break above 52.00 gets bought. I will also sell a break below 50.50. How I'll manage it after a fill I'll report later. A little light on structure once we get in.
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8: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=96 HI=28 LO=96 CL=09

1420 is still the number for me.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.60 1/2 HI=2.65 LO=2.58 CL=2.61 3/4

I'm going to leave the Corn alone for tomorrow and try to get my bearings over the weekend. This has obviously been beneficial for our Call Spread which we've had on for several months. The spread is right at about 6 cents, we bought it for 3 cents ... call it a double. In raw dollars, we are up $150 per spread. I have 4 of them, so I'm up $600 right now. We don't have to start sweating time decay for another 3 weeks or so. I'm sort of thinking right now that if I saw a $1000, anothe 40% increase in value I might well be tempted to take it. I'll do some more pondering over the weekend.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.58 HI=3.62 1/2 LO=3.56 CL=3.59 1/2

Same deal with Wheat, I'll leave it alone tomorrow and try to sort things out over the weekend.