Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday June 15, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, June 15, 2005
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"If you're not prepared to lose a little in trading, then you'll probably never make a lot." - Erich Senft
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=4 HI=9 1/4 LO=3 1/4 CL=9

Corn traded higher today breaking the 217 resistance rather decisively. The market is now officially in an uptrend so we can look at buying again. I know I said I'd probably buy the market on Wednesday; however I'm just a little concerned about the 220 1/4 resistance above the market.

Think I'll hold off one more day. It's easier to enter off a pause or bounce anyway.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=50 HI=75 LO=25 CL=60

Did you notice cotton prices stall out today? The market retested support and resistance without going anywhere. RSI is at a testpoint and as such I'll look to sell tomorrow on a break of 4725.

If you wanted to be a little more cautious wait until the market breaks 4700 before selling, and then use the 4715-20 area to cover the trade.

*SELL July Cotton at 4719
*Stop 4766
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $235 per contract
*Profit Target: 4551
*Approximate Profit Potential: $840 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=97 HI=28 LO=95 CL=25

A small bullish day for bean oil saw the market continue to hold the 2300 support area. From here the market rallied to the 2330 line before calling it a day. I'll run the same trades for tomorrow again; however I don't expect the short side to fill.

*BUY July Bean Oil at 2343
*Stop 2309
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $204 per contract
*Profit Target: 2498
*Approximate Profit Potential: $930 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*SELL July Bean Oil at 2257
*Stop 2277
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $120 per contract
*Profit Target: 2163
*Approximate Profit Potential: $564 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=50 HI=15 LO=50 CL=67

No big surprise here today as the market held support after yesterday's big gap. No doubt there are more than a few trader's second guessing their positions, especially with a Cattle on Feed report due Friday.

I am still looking to sell, but I'm not certain that tomorrow will be the right time. In fact I'd love to see the market continue to battle it out over the next few days so we get a good understanding of exactly where support and resistance are.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=39 HI=05 LO=37 CL=02

Cocoa did trade higher today, which would have gotten us long tomorrow; however today's range was the largest this market has seen in several weeks (or months) and as such I'm not sure what to expect tomorrow.

I can tell you I would like to see a smaller day, from where I would buy the market the day after; however it is possible that prices will continue their strong rally ...but I hope not.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=11 1/2 HI=17 1/4 LO=10 1/2 CL=16

If you ever wondered why I watch the market open, today's wheat market will tell you why. The market opened abnormally low, voiding our sell order, before trading higher for the rest of the day. Fortunately we had no part of it as it would have resulted in a whipsaw.

It seems as though wheat is finding support and catching some of the momentum from the other grains. The market is still in a downtrend so I'll reserve my buy until we get above the 320 resistance. RSI is also making it's third bounce off the trendline, so we'll see how it holds.

*BUY July Wheat at 322 1/4
*Stop 316 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 339 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $875 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=75 HI=06 LO=60 CL=01

We're back in familiar territory with the CD today as rates traded back to the 8000 resistance area. Support was firm as the market rallied to test the RSI trendline.

We could look to buy the market long above the resistance on the high, but quite honestly I'm not sure which direction this market is taking for the near term...and we might still be in a transition.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8012
*Stop 7989
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $230 per contract
*Profit Target: 8099 *Approximate Profit Potential: $870 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=7 HI=1.5 LO=4 CL=8

Isn't that just like silver to call my bluff and give us a small range today? Okay, we've got yet another hit on resistance and the market seems to be rejecting going lower, so we'll look at buying above the resistance area if we get a breakout.

*BUY July Silver at 732.5
*Stop 727.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 759.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1350 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH (hey, it's silver)
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.985 HI=.02 LO=.965 CL=.97

The Eurodollar pulled a little higher today and is looking a little more promising for a sell; however I would like to see one more higher day before rates begin to fall off again.

Regardless I'll place a sell order to short the market tomorrow and have adjusted the numbers to reflect the recent support.

*SELL March (06) Eurodollar at 95.94
*Stop 96.005
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $162 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.685
*Approximate Profit Potential: $637 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"TOMS TRADES" for Wednesday, June 15, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-24 HI=7-03 LO=6-02 CL=6-04

Nice day. We sold 116-28, enjoyed a very comfortable ride down to -15 and out at -17 for 11 ticks,$343. Sold -14 and was stopped out at B/E. Sold -15 and out at -07 for another 8 ticks, $250. Sold at -07 and out at -03 for $125. That was good for the day ... and the soul. $718 on the day. Yee Haw!!

We closed the day at 116-04. I'll be watching 116-00 and 116-16 tomorrow. Buys on tests of 116-00 that fail are good to go as are breaks above 116-16. That does NOT mean it is OK to buy a break above 117-00. I counted at least 6 -8 buys that would have been troublesome at the least had we not had the "no Buy" zone in effect. Stow THAT away for future reference.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.205 HI=.230 LO=.190 CL=.195

Just look at that triple bottom. Check out my post at the forum titled "Contest Time". Once again our numbers kept us out of the trade. We now have very convincing structure to deal with. Stay on the TT numbers.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=75 HI=06 LO=60 CL=01

Judging it close enough, I bought 7963 and exited at 7999 for $360. It's been awile since we took decent money from these guys. I am cautiously celebratory.

Today's close at 8001 re-enforces the big, fat round nuber to a point I can't ignore it. I will trade it both either way tomorrow. I need to see lower, a failure, a turn and I'll go as it breaks above 8006 with a stop at 7997. We'll go right after selling a break lower with a stop at 8007.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=2.10 HI=7.50 LO=9.70 CL=7.30

When the trading window swung open we were in process of a significant fall. As I watched I thought, "what's most likely?" The answer was easy 630.00. Sure enough it got to 629.80, bounced, next candle opened at 630.30, fell to 629.70 and snapped back. I bought at 630.30. I exited at 633.60 for $330. We never got another shot as the market was strongly above any number we discussed.

The full array of September numbers for tomorrow PLUS 2 new members. 637 and 640 are now players a swell. Yes, You are correct, I pulled them from the weekly chart. The choice was don't trade or use 'em. The Stock Market requires different rules.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=9.20 HI=0.20 LO=8.40 CL=9.30

A little gap down ... hangover from the previous night session. Moved up in a nice confirmation set up and headed lower. I sold 428.60 and WHAM! Reversal time. I really messed up. I had several chances to get out under 429 and didn't take them despite all kinds of green warning signs. It traied to fail several times at 429. I should have bailed and waited for another run to sell 428.60-40 again. Of course it never did that so I wouldn't have gotten in any further trades but I would have been out with at worst a $60 loss ... maybe less. I chose instead to ignore the whispers in my ear from the market and stubbornly hung on expecting it the hold at 429 and head lower again. Of course it didn't, it broke higher in one big candle. I'm out at 429.50. Not a big deal, a loss of 90 bucks. What's upsetting is a very poor management job, in my opinion. Learn from my lesson. It might keep you safe from a much bigger loss. Words of wisdom ... the market knows more than you do or I do. Trust it when it takes the time and effort to whisper in your ear.

$10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.50 HI=.75 LO=.25 CL=.60

I tried 3 times to get a trade off. 2 buys and a sell. I couldn't get any of them filled. I walked away in disgust. Same 47.00 and 47.50 triggers tomorrow. May the force be with us.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=39 HI=05 LO=37 CL=02

DANG!! An abject lesson in timing is everything. I pick the day to roll when the market launces from one of the most obvious numbers on the chart. Nice, Tom. Not only does it launch from the obvious but it goes right to the obvious target as well. Ok, enough whining. I will sell a break back below 1500 with a stop at 1507. I will not buy until a break above 1520.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.14 HI=2.19 1/2 LO=2.13 1/4 CL=2.19

I sold 2.16 3/4 and was stopped out at B/E ... TWICE! I bought at 2.17 1/2 and held it. The stop is now B/E working thru the night. My target is 2.25 but there is a whole lotta' resistance above ... 2.19, 2.20, 2.21, 2.22 1/2, 2.24 1/2 and then 2.25. I just looked at the night prices a bit ago. We are at 2.19 1/2 so I moved the stop to 2.18 3/4 to cinch things up a tad. We'll see what tomorrow brings. I also have a limit sell working at 2.24 3/4 just in case we get crazy.

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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.11 1/2 HI=3.17 1/4 LO=3.10 1/2 CL=3.16

Bought 3.13 1/4 and got stopped at 3.13 for a 1/4 loss. Bought 3.13 1/4. When we went to 3.17 I rolled my stop to 3.16 3/4 and got stopped out at 3.16 1/4 for 3 cents, $150.

Tomorrow it's 3.13 or I'll sell a retest of 3.19 that fails or buy a break above 3.19.