Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday June 8, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, June 8, 2005
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Scroll down midway in this post for Tom's Trades!
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=3 1/2 HI=3 1/2 LO=9 CL=0 1/4

Corn prices tanked today - no real surprise there. The market's still above the 20 day average so I'm not looking to sell just yet, but will get more serious as we get closer to the 217 support.

There's a WASDE report out this Friday so expect the market to get a little soft in the next couple of sessions.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=55 HI=65 LO=85 CL=94

Cotton continued lower today, although the market wasn't nearly as aggressive as yesterday. RSI shows the market extremely oversold, so we might expect prices to find support very soon.

As such you could bring your stops in tight to protect the $450 in profits we have right now. If you want to give the trade a little elbow room then you should move them at least to breakeven or above 4750.

First target is support at 4566.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=26 HI=50 LO=02 CL=06

Bean oil is flirting with the 2300 support line today but I'm not quite ready to sell just yet. We do have additional support at 2290 which is also a problem spot, so I want the market to get a little closer before we commit.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=60 HI=77 LO=17 CL=42

Cattle prices backed off a bit today and never challenged the 8450 resistance area we were watching. I'm tempted to sell this market tomorrow on a break of the 8317 support; however I think I'll wait for a confirmation of resistance before taking the plunge.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=27 HI=38 LO=17 CL=35

Well cocoa didn't head lower today, in fact the market rallied a bit, holding the old support at 1410-ish. Today's rally confirms the short term support and gives us a chance to buy the market long tomorrow above the 1445 - 1450 resistance.

*BUY July Cocoa at 1453
*Stop 1429
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 1549
*Approximate Profit Potential: $960 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=22 1/2 HI=23 1/4 LO=18 1/2 CL=19 1/4

Gto filled in the wheat short today as the market made a pretty good move to the downside. There is support just below the market at 317 - 318 which could prove to be a trouble spot, so tighten stops to above the 321 1/2 - 322 area if you want to take as much risk out of the trade as possible.

If you can afford the loss, then leave the stops where they are for one more day.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=57 HI=64 LO=10 CL=49

Big house cleaning day in the CD today as the market made a huge range without going anywhere. Today's session looks very bullish on the surface, but I'm not convinced that it's time to buy just yet. Watching and waiting tomorrow.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=4 HI=6.5 LO=2 CL=4.5

Silver fell off quite a bit today as the market broke recent support. I don't think the downside has a lot of potential and would look for prices to recover rather quickly.

I initially thought we'd see support at 731, but now I'm not sure we'll see much after 740. Doesn't matter though as we remain on the alert for a buy signal.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.165 HI=.165 LO=.115 CL=.145

Not quite what I was expecting from the ED today as the market gave us a little bounce. I was hoping to see support at 9604-ish before getting a recovery but now it looks as though rates might have recovered early.

We've still got the 9627 line in the way on the upside so I'll continue to stand aside for tomorrow.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, June 8, 2005
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Hi Everyone,

Thank you all for your patience as I took care of some family issues requiring my attention and travel. My apologies for the void which I will atempt to make up for with some whiz bang looks at our markets. I didn't trade Monday or today. There is not much sense in looking backward at this point so I'm just going to point you at the markets and price levels I think deserve our attention for tomorrow. I'm going to hit our core markets hard and skip lightly over those charts without very obvious plays. This'll give my eye some time to adjust to the layoff and for me to get back in the trading rhythm. Again, my thanks for understanding. Love you all as I do, family comes first.
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=8-20 HI=9-02 LO=8-12 CL=8-28

After Friday's volatility and weak showing from a disappointing jobs report we put in 2 days of strong up tick. We settled at 118-28 just 4 ticks off the day's high. I will refrain from buying up here and look only at short trades. Today's price flow was comprised of 3 good runs up and 2 down. Both of the down legs were easily playable as they each began right on the 119-00. They look to me as though they should have made easily $350-450 on run #1 and about $250 on the second. Pretty much fish in the barrel syndrome.

Let's see if we can do as well tomorrow. The settle price at 118-28 has us fixed on 119-00 or 118-16 If we get a clear path to a trade at 118-24 I'll look haerd at taking it as well. Remember ... only short trades, no buy zone. A buy doesn't show its face until 117-16 at the very earliest and even then it would have to be a very strong setup to get me buying. More than likely I won't make a buy until 116-16.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.325 HI=.325 LO=.305 CL=.315

We were stopped out of our short ttrade from last Thursday during the Friday session at 96.325 for a $50 loss. I'm going to give this market a day or two of observation ... unless ...

Should we see another pop up to 96.380 I will immediately sell one with a $50 stop.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=57 HI=64 LO=10 CL=49

We had a nice little run lower off the open this morning. Had you been following our numbers from last week you might very well have played off of 8060 this morning and done them some damage.

This market has been exceedingly tough to figure out and execute anything worthwhile of late. I will only consider 3 trades at the moment. I will sell a retest of 8080 that fails with a stop at 8083. The target is anything inside of 8010. I will also sell a retest and failure at 8060 and try to have my stop placeable at 8063 but certainly it is tied to the fill ... no risk over $100 which effectively gives me 10 points with which to play. The third trade is at 8010. I will sell a break below 8000; I will buy a retest and failure inside or close proximity to 8010. The stops respectively are 8003 and 8007 on the buy.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=3.20 HI=2.00 LO=2.80 CL=4.30

All the stock indecies have been on a 2 session uptick run. However, the strong early run to 632 today was met by a failure of even more significant proportion as we returned to prices lower than the session open. Interesting to note that failure occurred just below our 633 number. I'm going to pick right back up playing all the previous TT numbers. Big show of respect at anything near 633/632 tomorrow.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=8.50 HI=8.50 LO=6.20 CL=6.70

We moved back up a notch to the 420-430 channel on Thursday and it has held the higher reaches of that channel the past couple of sessions. We broke a couple of hundred bucks off there today to settle at 426 and change. $10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.55 HI=.65 LO=.85 CL=.94

If you carried over the 48.50 number line in the sand from the end of last week you should have done pretty well yesterday. The last 3 sessions have been solidly down, dumping about 200 points. I'm a little perplexed about what to do at this current level. I will play, however. I will buy a break back above 4708 with a stop at 46.97 stop. I will also sell a retest of 47.00 that fails to press higher with a stop at 47.11. Target on the buy is 48.50 and 45.50 on the sell. It's real important that we observe good RRR discipline on either of these trades. We've got to keep a trailing stop working about 30-35 points back and even tighter, 15-20, at any identifiable "what's most likely" S&R levels.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=27 HI=38 LO=17 CL=35

last 2 sessions have been a bit choppy and devoid of any clear direction. The 1430 line has not exercised the control over the price flow that I expected. I think the line now is pretty clearly 1440. I'm going to be an observer tomorrow with an eye on 1440 but no trade. We'll review that decision tomorrow night.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.23 1/2 HI=2.23 1/2 LO=2.19 CL=2.20 1/4

A wicked gap up at the open yesterday ... relative calm today with less than a 4 cent range with most of the day within a 2 cent range. Tomorrow I will be focused on the 2.19 line. I'll be looking to sell a break below there or buy a retest there that fails to push lower. Stops and rolls are at a penny and a quarter. Target on the sell is 2.12 but don't dis' 2.16 and 2.14 on the way down, nor 2.21, 2.22 or 2.24 on the way up where the target is 2.25. Yes, we are still scalpers.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.22 1/2 HI=3.23 1/4 LO=3.18 1/2 CL=3.19 1/4

Just as 2.19 is our line in Corn, here in Wheat it is 3.19. I will sell a break below, buy a failed retest there. Stops and rolls at a penny and a quarter. Targets are 3.12 on the sell and 3.30 on the buy. There are ample S&R lines intervening in both directions. Be a scalper, show them all due respect.
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