Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday, June 28, 2005

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Erich's Update for Tuesday, June 28, 2005
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"In matters of conscience, first thoughts are best; in matters of prudence, last thoughts are best." - Robert Hall
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=6 1/2 HI=7 LO=5 CL=1 1/4

Quite the session in corn today as prices fell off sharply before finding support and trading higher. While it doesn't look too encouraging for the bulls right now I will consider buying corn if we see a rally above the 238 - 239 resistance.

We might not get filled, but we should avoid a bad move as well.

*BUY September Corn at 239 1/4
*Stop 235 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 255 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=90 HI=48 LO=70 CL=43

I thought that cotton would give us a reaction as early as 5540, but it looks as though prices managed to push a little higher today, getting to the 5550 resistance instead.

I'm expecting a reaction here tomorrow and briefly toyed with the idea of selling to support at 5340...but decided to pass on this one.
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3: DECEMBER BEAN OIL
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BOZ5 O=30 HI=35 LO=78 CL=03

We finally got our pullback to the 2460 area as bean oil made a huge drop. We're testing the RSI trendline so if we see a small session tomorrow, where the support holds, then we'll look at buying on Wednesday.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=70 HI=80 LO=25 CL=57

Cattle prices finally tested the trendline today. In hindsight I was a little too aggressive with this trade as the market moved against us rather quickly - stopping us out for a small loss.

Looks like support is holding and we can probably expect prices to rally tomorrow, but we are up against a couple of trendlines, so I think I'll just hold for another day.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=35 HI=50 LO=11 CL=45

Cocoa bounced off the 1515 support "area" as we thought it might. The market is looking a little more bullish than it did toward the end of last week, but to tell the truth I don't see anything overly promising right now.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=45 HI=46 LO=35 1/2 CL=40 1/2

Wheat followed the other grains lower today. I'd like to do a similar trade as what we're looking at in corn; however the setup isn't quite as clear.

Think I'll wait for confirmation before getting on board.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=11 HI=62 LO=05 CL=37

Strange little look in the CD today as rates tried to break resistance yet again without succeeding. You could run the weekend trade again tomorrow, but understand that it will be slightly more risky. The FOMC report is out Wednesday, and while this directly affects the US Dollar it is likely to spill over into the other currencies as well.

*BUY September Canadian Dollar at 8163
*Stop 8147
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 8238
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=3.5 HI=4.5 LO=6 CL=9

Amazing day in silver as the market continued to flatline. I'm starting to like this trade more and more as the pending breakout could be a doozie. The only *problem* is that this is silver and an unexpected clearing day might precede the breakout.

*BUY July Silver at 739.5
*Stop 735.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 764.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*SELL July Silver at 719.5
*Stop 725
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 695.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.125 HI=.13 LO=.10 CL=.11

Smallish day in the ED is not a surprise after the previous rally coupled by the pending FOMC report on Wednesday. I would expect another small day tomorrow which should give us a chance to trade the market on Wednesday after the report comes out.

The FOMC report should light a bit of a fire under the market.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, June 28, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=9-02 HI=9-10 LO=8-26 CL=9-08

My theory that it may take -08 and -24 trades to get anything done was in fact the case. I sold at -07 and exited at -02 for 5 ticks. That's all they'd give us today.

The close at 119-08 leaves us just shy of contracts highs and clearly the market is showing some strength. My bet is we'll see some price leak out tomorrow as I don't see anyone brave enough to continue pressing the prices higher in the face of FOMC on Thursday. But, the fact of the matter is we never know what the market will do until it does it. We'll be watching for an opportunity to sell 119-16 or 119-00 tomorrow. We'll also be looking to see if -08 holds water.

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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.235 HI=.235 LO=.220 CL=.225

I rolled the stop to 96.205. The very narrow range confirmed my suspicion that .240 is key. I will be gone by end of day tomorrow in any case. I'll bail at any price above .240 tomorrow. I will then sit tight on Thursday and see what we have to work with on Thursday after the dust settles.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=11 HI=62 LO=05 CL=37

I bought 8110 on the belief that 8105 was a failed retest of 8100. I exited at 8154 for $440. I then sold 8157 late in the day after the failure at 8162, I exited at 8140 for $170.

All the same TT numbers for tomorrow ... 8160, 8120 and 8100.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=9.00 HI=2.10 LO=7.30 CL=0.80

We began the day with a buy at 628.30 which we closed at 630.50 for $220. I then sold 629.80 and closed it at 627.80 for $200. I bought 628.30 and exited at 630.00 for $170. I was a little out of breath so I took a rest. If I'd have stayed focused we might have gotten another trade or 2 off our numbers. I came back in time to sell 629.80 and exited at 628.10 for $170. I bought 628.20 and was stopped at B/E. I bought 628.20 again and bailed at 628.80 for $60. I bought 628.20 once more and exited this one at 631.00 for $280. A total $1100 day.

The full array of numbers for tomorrow.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=1.30 HI=1.90 LO=0.10 CL=1.70

Nothing today. $10 Channel for tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.05 HI=.48 LO=.70 CL=.43

I bought 55.08 and got stopped out at 54.85 for a $115 loser. I bought 55.05 and ran with it to 55.35 for $150 getting back even plus lunch money.

All the same numbers from TT again tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=35 HI=50 LO=11 CL=45

I bought 1530 and stopped out at 1529 losing $10. I bought 1530 and was stopped at B/E. I wasn't comfortable and let it be for the rest of the day.

I'll go with the TT numbers from yesterday again tomorrow.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.26 HI=2.28 LO=2.16 CL=2.21 1/2

Remember my comments last week about the weather and the funds? Rain in the forecast and guess who flew the coup? We sold 2.27. I rolled at 2.25 and every 2 cents after on the way down to 2.16. I then rolled the stop to 2.17 1/4 and was stopped at 2.17 1/2 for 9 1/2 cents, $475.

I'm going to look for action at 2.27 1/2 again tomorrow. I will also play 2.17/2.16 as a range. Turn around Tuesday and all that. Be very careful. If you are thinking anything other than a scalp ... stay out. The rain was FORECAST, not a drop fell and the funds can come back as quickly as they departed today.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.36 HI=3.36 LO=3.25 1/2 CL=3.31

I sold 3.34 1/2 and bailed at 3.31 for 3 1/2 cents, $175. I probably would have sold on the break of 3.31 but I was in a headlock over at the Russell and couldn't play them both.

I will play 3.35 and 3.31 tomorrow both ways. Penny and a quarter stops and rolls.