Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday June 16, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, June 16, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=4 1/2 HI=6 3/4 LO=2 1/4 CL=4 1/4

Big day for corn as prices opened with a huge gap, ran up to the 277 resistance and then backed off again by closing. The gap is encouraging for prices heading higher as it shows momentum; however the indecisive day is discouraging as the market might try and recover part of today's range.

Sitting this one out tomorrow.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=70 HI=75 LO=00 CL=07

What a wild day in the cotton market! Things don't look so crazy on the surface, but a peak at an intraday chart will show prices moving around like a rollercoaster.

Notice the low of the day? Yep, the 4700 support that we were toying with yesterday. We got filled closer to our 4719 target, but prices were moving pretty fast so you probably took some slippage.

As much as I would love to move the stops up a bit, I'm afraid that we'll make things a little too tight. We've got them above solid resistance now, and if cotton backs up on us, we'll know it's time to leave.

First target is support at 4551.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=50 HI=29 LO=48 CL=17

Too bad "close" didn't count in trading as well as horseshoes and hand gernades. We had this market pegged pretty well; however prices gapped our entry on the open and voided our trade. Would have been a nice move to catch, but now we've got to wait on the sidelines for the next opportunity.

Nothing tomorrow.
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4: AUGUST LIVE CATTLE
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LCQ5 O=10 HI=40 LO=92 CL=20

Small day for cattle but prices did manage to get a little lowe still and bury themselves well into the 8000 support area. It will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow, but I'd almost bet you dollars to donuts we'll see a higher session.

Remember the cattle on feed report is due this Friday and it's likely to spur the market further, one way or the other.
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5: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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CCU5 O=44 HI=62 LO=26 CL=60

The cocoa rocket continued higher today, which is not quite what we wanted. The market had less momentum than yesterday, but given the proximity to the 1600 resistance all we can do is watch and wait for now.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=20 HI=24 3/4 LO=18 1/2 CL=23

Got filled in our wheat long today as the market caught some momentum from the other grain markets. Unfortunately there's not too much to do with the stops right now so I'm going to leave them below the 317 line for the moment.

If you're desperate to move your stops you could bring them under today's low, but I don't think I'd go much tighter than that. First profit target is resistance at 339 3/4.
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7: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=29 HI=10 LO=24 CL=01

Not fair! Not fair! We had this market pegged today but again the big opening gap voided our trade. Too bad too as the market found our profit target in a single session.

Sitting this one out tomorrow and waiting for the next signal to buy.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=8 HI=0 LO=7 CL=3

We got filled shortly after today's open in silver as prices spiked higher to the 740 area before retreating. We're currently long from 732.5 and I'd like to bring in the stops a bit.

Of course if you can afford the risk the best place is still the 727 line, otherwise bring them up, just under the 730 intraday support.

First target is resistance at 759.5.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=6.00 HI=.01 LO=.93 CL=.94

Got filled in our Eurodollar short today as rates dipped below the 95.95 support from this week. RSI is hooking however the hook is a bit premature which doesn't fill me with a lot of confidence for tomorrow, but we'll see.

Exit stops should stay where they are, or you can bring them just above the 9597 line if you wanted to tighten them a bit.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"TOMS TRADES" for Thursday, June 16, 2005
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1: SEPTEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDU5 O=6-07 HI=6-14 LO=5-26 CL=6-08

I missed the first big run south and then did one B/E trade on a buy at 116-03. Not a very productive day. The close at 116-08 has us on the same numbers for tomorrow ... 116-00 and 116-16.
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2: SEPTEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDU5 O=.205 HI=.215 LO=.170 CL=.185

The triple bottom structure alters my preferred play just slightly. We now have an S&R range to deal with bounded by 96.170 and 96.195. I will buy a break above 96.195 or sell a break below 96.170. Yopu can use the reciprocal as the stop if you choose to but I will place 1.5 points back of the fill.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=29 HI=10 LO=24 CL=01

Leap frogged over us with a gap up on the open. This is never fun being on the right numbers and winding up with nothing to show for it. It happens, especially in the currencies with the impact of the night trading. You either learn to live with it or you stay up all night trading. Not a very appealing scenario. We talked about this market in depth in the webinar tonight. We'll play either way off 8100 tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.20 HI=0.00 LO=1.40 CL=9.40

It's almost embarassing when it works like this. We sold 639.70 to open our trading day after adding 640 as a player in last night's update. Take note of the high for the day. I closed it out at 631.70 for $800. I should've turned right around and bought one right there but didn't ... not quite close enough to 630 to be convincing. I couldv'e bought one on the 637 break and probably made another $200. It was late in the session and I was hurting so I packed it in.
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5: AUGUST GOLD
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GCQ5 O=9.80 HI=1.80 LO=9.10 CL=0.90

Nothing for us today as the entire day was spent in indecision ... are we 420-430 or 430-440.

$10 channel again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.70 HI=.75 LO=.00 CL=.07

I had 2 B/E sells at 47.45 and on the third one we got something to work with. I exited at 47.15 for 30 points, $150.

We'll play off 47.00 and 47.50 again tomorrow.
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7: SEPTEMBER COCOA
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COU5 O=44 HI=62 LO=26 CL=60

The gap up open took us beyond our planned entry at 1520. The later pullback to 1526 might have been a buy but I was looking at other stuff and it rose before I could get to it. You might have made a couple of hundred if you took it.

I'll buy a break above 1580- or sell a failed test there.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.24 1/2 HI=2.26 3/4 LO=2.22 1/4 CL=2.24 1/4

I took the profit at 2.25 for 7 1/2 cents, $375. For tomorrow I'll trade off 2.25 either buying a break above or selling on a failed retest
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.20 HI=3.24 3/4 LO=3.18 1/2 CL=3.23

I bought 3.19 1/2 after it gapped up at the open and temporarily left us in the dust. I exited at 3.24 1/4 for 4 3/4 cents, $275.

We'll play 3.22 1/2 tomorrow, buying a failed retest that turns back higher or selling a break below.