Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday 5-6-05

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Erich's Update for Friday, May 6, 2005
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=7 1/4 HI=8 1/2 LO=5 C=8

Corn continued to show us support at the 205 area today. Prices didn't rally as high as I would have hoped; however RSI did adjust itself a bit.

Tomorrow's Friday so I might look for prices to continue to contend with the 205 line...I hope. If we see prices hold up here, which I think they will given how weather sensitive this market is right now, then we'll have a good level to enter from next week.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=25 HI=40 LO=60 CL=26

Cotton did run up a little higher today, but ended the day on a rather flat note for the bulls. I would still like to see prices test the 5500 resistance but we might not get it. Standing aside for tomorrow.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=82 HI=85 LO=58 CL=77

Bean oil continues to hang around the resistance near 2300 without giving us a good reaction here. I still like this market short; however a breakout above 2300 will get me looking to buy again. For the time being I'm running the same trade as before.

*SELL July Bean Oil at 2234
*Stop 2267
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $198 per contract
*Profit Target: 2132
*Approximate Profit Potential: $612 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=75 HI=60 LO=65 CL=42.5

I don't like the looks of this! Cattle prices rallied today, but failed to trade high enough to find our exit order, so we're still short this market...but barely. Leave stops where they are as a break above 8565 will certainly signal that we're on the wrong side of the trade and should get out.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=90 HI=93 LO=75 CL=80

Yet another test of 1475's support today. The lower session was accompanied by an RSI hook which could be favourable for tomorrow. You could run the same trade again , but bear in mind that it is VERY risky to hold a cocoa position over the weekend.

*SELL July Cocoa at 1474
*Stop 1491
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 1423
*Approximate Profit Potential: $510 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=17 HI=18 LO=13 1/4 CL=13 3/4

Wheat found our first profit target today at 314 allowing us to pick up $450 in profit if you exited here. If you're still short this market bring exit stops above 318 resistance and see if we can't run it lower tomorrow. Next target is 303 support.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=22 HI=50 LO=16 CL=39

8050, 8016...I really like these numbers. The CD hit good resistance today on the high and solid support on the low. I'm expecting a reversal off this level tomorrow; however since it's Friday I'll hold off and wait for confirmation before looking to enter next week.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=3 HI=0 LO=8.5 CL=6.3

After yesterday's session I had my doubts that the 711 resistance would even come into play in this market, but after today a reaction to 711 seems quite likely. Waiting for a confirmation of resistance before looking to sell this market again...but right now I still prefer the sell to the buy.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.02 HI=.095 LO=.995 CL=.07

Darn it! That's twice now in as many weeks that the ED has skirted our entry order - this time the market gapped our entry, which probably put your trade on hold if not caused you to cancel it altogether. Too bad too as the market made some nice gains today. Oh well, I'll just head to the sofa to sulk. Nothing new here tomorrow.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, May 6, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-13 HI=5-03 LO=4-09 CL=4-29

A very quiet open that settled into a very narrow range. On the move up to -18 I thought we might be getting unstuck so I sold -14 and was rewarded by being stopped out at -17 for a 3 tick loss. Shortly after 10am it looked like we might be headed somewhere, I sold -14 again. Atleast this one dropped enough to allow me some roll latitude. I was stopped out at -11 covering the earlier hit. I bought 1 at 114-21. The failure at 115-03 was cause to roll the stop real tight on the once broken, don't come back theory ... 115-01. I was taken out at 115-00 for 11 ticks, $343. I was going to sell the subsequent break but it was really crowding last hour so I passed.

The settle at 114-29 marks 115-00 and 114-16 as targets along with 114-24.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.590 HI=.620 LO=.590 CL=.605

Been a very, very long time since I was long the ED but, here we go. I am long from 96.610 with a stop at .595 for risk of a whole $37. We shall see where we go. I'd like to stay in this over the weekend into the front part of next week. I think given the way we closed, They'll probably come get me tomorrow. Like I said ... we'll see.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=22 HI=50 LO=16 CL=39

I tried to buy one on the break out of the S&R range. Best I could get was 8028. I passed. The sell at 40 was there but so was a buy that would have taken a hit. The violent swaying back and forth has just turned me off. The bid/ask and the choppiness has been really wicked for the past week or so. I will assess moving off the CD for a while over the weekend.

I'll try the 8040, selling if we get a failure. I'll buy the break above 8080 or sell the failure there. All the numbers for management are in TT weekend.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=4.50 HI=9.60 LO=1.00 CL=5.90

I got one sold at 599.20 and jumped out at 597.70 for $150. I sold 599.00 and got out at 592.50 for $650. I packed it in as it was getting late in the session. All the same numbers from weekend TT tomorrow.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=0.80 HI=1.70 LO=8.80 CL=0.70

$10 channel.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.25 HI=.40 LO=.60 CL=.26

I missed the first break of 54.00 which appears it would have made a small profit. I jumped on the second one selling at 53.90. When we broke 53.50 I tried to get the stop rolled lower but was too slow. I bailed at 53.60 for $150. I then sold 53.90 again and bailed at 52.90 for an even $500. I will sell tommorrow on a failed retest of 54.00, 53.50 or a break of 53.00. I will buy a failure to break 52.00 or 52.50.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=90 HI=93 LO=75 CL=80

I did one buy at 1485 and was stopped at B/E. Same TT numbers again tomorrow.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.07 1/4 HI=2.08 1/2 LO=2.05 CL=2.08

I bought 2.05 1/2 mid session. I kept it open into the night with a limit sell order at 2.09 3/4 and a sell stop loss at 2.07 3/4. They got me at 2.07 1/2 picking up $100. Since it has continued to drop in the night I am happy to take the hundred buck scalp and watch for another op to buy 2.05 in the morning.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.17 HI=3.18 LO=3.13 1/4 CL=3.13 3/4

Flirted with it near end of session. No reason to change the numbers now as they are more probable than yesterday.

I'll sell a break below 3.13 tomorrow or buy a failed test there. 1 1/4 stops and roll to B/E at 3.12 on the sell and 3.14 1/4 on the buy. I'll also buy a break above 3.21 or sell a failed retest there.
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