Traders Helping Traders Daily Trade Update for Friday 5-27-05

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Erich's Update for Friday, May 27, 2005
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Scroll Down for Tom's Trades!

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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O= 1/2 HI= 1/2 LO= 1/2 CL=

It looks as though the support at 218 is as low as corn is prepared to go given the strong rally today. This would normally be a buy signal on a break above the 225 resistance, but it's the start of a holiday weekend tomorrow, so I just don't feel safe holding a trade that long...and I have a feeling I'm not alone.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=0 HI=0 LO=5 CL=8

If you took the cotton trade today you would have gotten filled as prices broke the 5057 area. Bad news is the 5090 - 5100 resistance held the market down today.

Volume's weak but a retracement does look to be inorder so hopefully we'll see prices rally a little more tomorrow. Bring exit stops below the low to take some of the sting out if things don't go our way.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=5 HI=6 LO=3 CL=8

Well Bean Oil prices broke the 2340 resistance today in a big way. I wasn't too keen on the sell position but that's the way the trade was setting up - so I'm just as glad we didn't get filled.

Nothing for tomorrow.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=5 HI=2.5 LO=5 CL=0

If you were trailing stops above yesterday's high the market would have taken you out of the trade today as we saw a bit a bounce off the 8435 support line.

Still expecting prices to head lower though, but I don't think I want to try selling them tomorrow.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=5 HI=7 LO=3 CL=5

Cocoa fell off enough today that we can bring in our exit stops a bit. Consider placing them above the 1430 resistance to take most of the risk out of the trade. If you wanted you could bring them to breakeven for tomorrow; however that could make things a little too tight.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=9 HI=9 1/4 LO=6 CL=7 3/4

Nearly the same range as yesterday but a much more bullish session overall. Like corn we would normally be ready to buy a break above 340 tomorrow; however just like corn I don't feel safe doing so before the long weekend.

Hoping for a stall and a second chance on Tuesday.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5

Caught a break in our CD trade as the market gapped lower so our exit stop was never threatened. Move exit stops at least to the 7915 resistance or even to breakeven if you like.

Hopefully we'll see a continuation lower tomorrow.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O= HI= LO=.5 CL=.2

Okay, so silver made a liar out of me again today when it smudged the 720 resistance and rallied to 724. Look at the overall session though. See how low the market closed relative to the rest of the day? This is normally a sign of indecision.

Either way I'm not touching this one with my 10 foot trading pole tomorrow.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=02 HI=03 LO=975 CL=00

Oy vey! The ED found our sell order today, but notice how low the market got? Yep, right on the 9597 support which also happens to be the price trendline. the hook in RSI but it's trading at the 50% level.

At least the risk is small if things back up on us tomorrow, but we'll see which trendline holds: prices or RSI.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, May 27, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=-10 HI=-22 LO=-05 CL=-13

First trade of the day we sold 116-14. Smooth to -08 and then a bounce sufficient to catch my roll to -11, out with 3 ticks. I saw the weakness at -08. I toyed with the idea of taking my profits right there ... should have, filed away for future use. Bonds resumed the march south before pulling up at -05. Didn't get low enough to give me an entry on the second failure at -05. I wanted back in long real bad watching what I was watching. I bought 1 at -09 and exited at -18 for 9 ticks. We're at 12 ticks. We were no doubt headed for a sell on the break of -16 ... we ran out of time. Happy with the 12, $375.

Bonds settled at 116-13 so our sights rest on 116-16, 116-00 and 117-00. 116-08 and -24 are in the mix but secondarily only.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=580 HI=580 LO=575 CL=580

This one is getting a little long in the tooth. The sheer weight of the chart has me thinking odds favor a break lower than higher. If we get a pop to .600 or anything higher than that tomorrow I'm on it. Failing that I'll content myself with hanging on 'til Monday.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=4 HI=7 LO=9 CL=9

Nothing doin' down here for me. We are observers for the moment.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=.80 HI=.40 LO=.60 CL=.80

As the window opened the Russell was bounce around low to mid 609, just sorta' drifting. Things finally heated up a bit and off we went. I bought 610.30. We looked pretty strong moving to 611.50 but it failed. I ducked out the back door at 610.80 for $50. I bought 610.30 again about 20 minutes later. This one worked a little better. Zoom, zoom ... bounded right up thru 613, I protected there, broke 14, I protected there.

I'm out at 614.20 with $390. Once we'd gotten above 614, I wanted no part of a long as it came back below 14. I sold 613.70 and got stopped at 612.30 for another $140. I sold 612.90 and lost $30, I sold 612.90 again and was stopped at B/E. I next sold 613.70 and exited at 612. 60 for a whopping $110. I was done for the day with $660.

The full array of previously identified levels in TT are at play tomorrow. I don't see any evidence we need to add or subtract any numbers from the array.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=.80 HI=.80 LO=.10 CL=.00

The Channel kept safe and dry in the midst of a very choppy day. $10 channel for Friday.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=60 HI=90 LO=35 CL=38

Hooked on 50.00 and no other for tomorrow.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=5 HI=7 LO=3 CL=5

I think this area, although not bleesed of major S&R is worth a stab at a buy. I'll buy a break above 1420 with a stop at 1413 for tomorrow. Get it to B/E above 1428. First protection at 1440 and look hard at profit taking at 1460 unless we are smokin' thru it.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.22 1/2 HI=2.25 1/2 LO=2.20 1/2 CL=2.25

I bought 2.20 3/4. When we got to 2.23 1/2 it quickly fell back to 2.21 1/2. Most of our profit was eaten up by the pullback so I left the stop alone at B/E. Fortunately it did rebound. We got to 2.24 1/2 and died. I took the profits at 2.24 even for $162.

I'm playing 2.24 either way tomorrow. Still penny and a quarter stops and B/E rolls. Target 2.30 on the buy and 2.12 on the sell.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.29 HI=3.39 1/2 LO=3.26 CL=3.37 3/4

We just missed our 3.25 at the open. Very frustrating. We missed a nice one. I'm on 3.40 for tomorrow ...either way ... penny and a quarter stops and B/E roll.