Traders Helping Traders Dily Update for Tuesday, 4-12-05

Subscribers got these on Monday evening - Test Drivers get theirs somewhat after the fact. If you'd like to get yours up front and on time, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, April 12, 2005
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Erich and I really enjoyed the live venue. What an extraordinary group of guys showed up. There was so much more we wanted to do. Despite the fact we covered a lot of ground, there was still a lot left undone. All the better for the groups that follow. Erich and I learned an awful lot as well and definitely have a list of things we could have done better. Please bear with me as I get back into the saddle. Trust me when I tell you we left nothing in the locker room this weekend ... it all made it on the field.

Erich won't be back home til April 15th, and won't be doing any Daily Updates or Big Weekend Edition until then.

I am now so pumped to do the next seminar. We'll get to work on the planning as soon as Erich returns from a little battery recharging. The only markets I traded today was the bonds and Corn. We'll review those two and get a plan going for the rest of our usual suspects for tomorrow.
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-15 HI=2-06 LO=1-13 CL=1-27

I bought 1 at 111-19. Brought it to B/E as we broke -23. As we touched -06, I rolled to -03 and was nailed right there. I'm out with 16 ticks, $500. By the time we got around to -28 we were showing lots of green and we were inside the final hour.

For tomorrow, the close at 111-27 has us fixed on either 112-00 or 111-16 as the playground. To sell off 112-00 we first must see an advance from -27 toward 112-00 and then a failure.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.510 HI=.515 LO=.505 CL=.510

We remain short this market from 96.540 with ur stop at 96.555. I will role it to 96.525 IF we get a down day tomorrow.

Those looking to iniiate a trade in this market need to wait for another bounce to .540 or a break of .500.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=46 HI=56 LO=92 CL=03

I'm struggling a bit with this chart in light of the 8103 close. At first look I thought, "oh cool" right at 8100. After spending a little more time tearing it apart I'm not sure 8100 is a cool number. Usually big fat round ones like 8100, 8200, 8000 have readily apparent power and some extra stuff just by virtue of their psychological clout. The last time we were in this neighborhood ... Feb and March ... the market didn't show this level much love in the context of respecting S&R. Why would it now? I noticed too that 8200 didn't fair too well in the treatment dept just before we left that are to head here. I'm not gonna' pound on squares when the holes be round. I will play the cautious route.

Here we go ... The most interesting trade is to sell a move back testing 8140 to 8160. Any failure that occurs above 55 can be sold with a stop just above 8160 ... say 8163. That puts risk at about $80. Any failure that occurs below 55 ... you must wait for it to break 40 before selling and the stop is at 47 max - I'll probably throw mine in at 43. At 47 the risk is $100 or a tad less; at 43 it hopefully will be $60 max. B/E roll on the 55 and over comes on a break of 50. Off the break of 40 the roll is 32/33. The target on both of these is 8040 for RRR in the range of 10 or 12 to 1. You gotta' do additional rolls at 8120, 8100 and 8080.

I'll buy a break above 8160 with a stop at 8153 for risk of $100 or less. Roll to B/E at 8168. Additional rolls come at 8180, 8200, 8210. The target is the S7R range at 8223/8211 ... grab it and run anywhere in there.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=0.80 HI=2.90 LO=6.90 CL=8.20

We built up an pretty decent array of numbers over the prior 2 weeks of trading. They remain the prefered plays from my perspective. All the numbers from last two week's retain their validity. Any time we see 640, 636, 630-629 range, 626, 622/620, 616, 613 or 607 we'll play them either way EXCEPT 607 ... this is a buy only. The numbers have enough space between them so that the next one below will be the target for any sell and next above the target for any sells.

You can set up to grab it with limit orders in front of the arrival there or you can manage to and thru them by rolling stops very tight on approach. I will probably opt to use limits in the majority of cases on the belief the market will "wrassle" around the number long enough to allow me to initiate longs or shorts at the appropriate level after exiting. If we start getting shut out of a bunch that continue in the original trade direction we'll adjust and rely more on tight rolls and abandon the limit exits. By a bunch I think I mean 3 or so.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5

The Dow is being retired as of today. I will no longer follow this market.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=1.20 HI=1.70 LO=9.80 CL=0.40

$10 channel and 428 ... that's my story and I'm stickin' to it.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.60 HI=.70 LO=.65 CL=.27

We're back looking to sell a failure at 54.00 or 54.50 and that's all. If the run comes and the failure happens at 54.35 or better you can sell with a stop at 54.53 ... or .57 if it happens closer to .50. Roll it to B/E as it breaks 30. If the failure occurs at less than 54.35 wait until the break of 54.00 to sell with a stop at 54.11 or .13. roll to B/E at 53.91. The target is 50.60/70. We'll roll at 53.00, 52.50, 52.00, 51.60, and 51.00. In between rolls keep the periodic RRR in close check.

I'm tempted to sell a retest and subsequent failure at 53.50 to 53.65 as well. It is marginal with only about 6 hits on it's resume. I'll watch and if I like what I see I'll go for it with a stop at 53.67 if the failure gives me a fill at 53.50 or higher. If the failure will only support a fill of 53.40 to 53.49 then I'll place my stop at 53.53 or .57. The B/E roll comes in at 53.40. Target and rolls are the same as above.

Sometime this week I will roll out to July contract. We still have just 2 weeks to FND but May OI and Volume is dropping and July is on the rise. I'll go on the cross.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=70 HI=72 LO=36 CL=40
O=92 HI=92 LO=58 CL=63

I'm going to trade May one more day and then roll out to July. The OI and Volume probably crossed over today and FND is on Monday, the 18th.

I will sell a break below 1540 with a 43 stop for hopefully no more than $50-60 at risk. Roll the B/E at 1532. The target is only 1500 so something less than $400 is available as potential profit. There is no alternative. If you take this you manage tight, tight, tight.

If we drop a bit and rebound I'll buy as we break above 1540 with a stop at 1537 and a roll to B/E at 1547. The target is 1640-60. Start squeezing at 35 and see what you can make of it. I will also play 1580 if we sail right on up there. I'll buy a break out above 1586 with a stop at 1581 or I'll sell a retest and failure as it breaks below 1575 with a stop at 1579. Same targets as the 1540 trades. Rolls on any sell are 1530, 1520 and 1510 add 1540 and 1560 on the 1580 sell.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.03 3/4 HI=2.06 LO=2.03 CL=2.05 3/4

I bought 2.03 1/2 with a stop at 2.02 1/4. I'd pretty much decided to hold it overnight when near end of day it popped almost 2 cents. The stop is at B/E and we are climbing in the night. Now the stop is 2.05 1/4. I also have a profit taker working at 2.08.

My thoery on this is if we get to 2.08 we'll have had to break 2 more significant resistance areas. I think that 'll be about as ggod as they can do right now. and I'll get back in while the market plays a while getting up the fuel to slay 2.09. If you didn't pick up 1 today on a carry over of Thursday's writing I would suggest you look to sell a faied test of 2.08 or wait until a break above 2.10 to buy one.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.12 HI=3.14 LO=3.08 3/4 CL=3.13 1/2

For tomorrow I have 3 alternative trades. I will buy a failed retest of 3.10 with a penny and a half back stop and a B/E roll at 3.11 1/4. The target is 3.17 1/2 but I will start a serious squeeze at 3.15.

I will sell a failed test of 3.15 with a stop back a penny and a half and B/E roll at 3.14. The target is 3.10. Not much here at only a nickel of profit target so you need to be on your toes with the management. The last trade is the buy the break above 3.17 1/2 or sell a failed retest there. Penny and a half stops both ways.