Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday 4-8-05

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Erich's Update for Friday, April 8, 2005 ==================================================
Hi All, Tom here. I'm pinch-hitting for Erich whilst he makes his way south. I'm going to write this as I think Erich would ... not necessarily from my perspective. If you read us both, I might say some things here I would not say over on my side and vice versa. This is not an easy task filling in for smarter partner. As proof positive of that fact, I'm here writing while he enjoys a road trip, need I say more?
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=7 HI=7 1/4 LO=5 1/4 CL=5 1/2

We opened just above 207, but more importantly just below our entry target at 207 3/4. Technically, we shouldn't be in the short trade. If you thought the bounce to 207 1/4 was close enough and sold 207 that's fine. We settled at 205 1/2 so you have some small profit to manage. It does not bode well that the market replicated the low AND the close from Tuesday and I'd suggest a roll of the stop to atleast B/E to protect tomorrow. Actually, if you did sell it, I would have preferred you were out taking the scalp profit and be flat for tomorrow. If you didn't get in the trade ... no worries. I wouldn't do antything tomorrow until I have a clear sense the market has digested the report and the dust has settled.

Monday will be quiet behind the report,I think, so not the normal fear of a weekend hold if that's your thing.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=25 HI=00 LO=10 CL=22
Little gap opened was avoided by opening range technology. From there we climbed almost 100 points to top out at 5300 dashing any hope of a short trade. We'll wait for Erich's return for any new trades in Cotton.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=00 HI=15 LO=65 CL=68

Opening range considerations kept us away from the trade notwithstanding our target entry's availability. I'd be flat for tomorrow, again, until the report dust settles. Then I might go after this trade.

*BUY May Bean Oil at 2311
*Stop 2279
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $192 per contract
*Profit Target: 2438
*Approximate Profit Potential: $762 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=55 HI=05 LO=40 CL=42

More weakness today has our long scenario looking less likely. Let's take that one off the table and we'll await Erich's return for guidance.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=48 HI=74 LO=30 CL=52

All shorts should have been stopped out today ... probably at 1574 for about a $200 loss. On the later in the day move lower we again got a shot at selling 1554. It looked very promising for awhile until it snapped back to settle at 1552. I'd be awaiting Erich's return before looking to initiate anything in Cocoa.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=15 HI=16 1/2 LO=13 CL=14 1/4

A virtual replay of yesterday's range. Nothing near our price level of interest. We could certainly look at the same numbers from yesterday as a play for tomorrow. Again, ONLY AFTER the report has been absorbed and the dust has settled.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=13 HI=18 LO=76 CL=83

Still apropos ... I'm going to let Erich's comments from yesterday stand ...

[YAWN!] Time to poke some fun at the Canadian Dollar so this market smartens up and goes somewhere! Rates are still hovering around the 8200 line, but I'm not interested in shorting until we get a test of 8150. Likewise I'm holding out for a test of 8356 before we look at buying again. In the meantime expect more of this mindless chop.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=4 HI=7.5 L=p6 CL=7.5

Wednesday's advance was almost completely retraced today. Interestingly, it did break the upper trend line before failing significantly. I don't see anything to do in here.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.775 HI=.805 LO=.73 CL=.74

We made an attempt to test higher resistance today. Didn't get to .840 however, so we are still flat and watching.
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=8.2 HI=8.7 LO=6.8 CL=8.3

We made our entry target at 187.90. We got to 187.0 but then bounced near day's end. It didn't get high enough to stop us out ... close though. We settled at 188.30. I'd have my stop working over night. I think I want to get flat before the report tomorrow. We'll see if the stop gets hit tonight.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, April 8, 2005
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Here we are on the eve of Erich's and my first live trading workshop. I'm really looking forward to this. We've really prepared what I hope will be a great weekend for all. Monday at the forum should be very interesting ... a little like getting the reviews of the play's opening. Somebody say "Break a leg"!

Most likely, I will not trade today due to the press of workshop tasks. Maybe a little bonds or Russell in the morning. Good luck to all of you, however.
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-27 HI=2-07 LO=1-04 CL=1-11

I'm going to consider today an omen as regards the Workshop. Nice day, if I do say so myself.

Actually, today was a total surprise to me. I expected I'd get no chance to trade. I knew the reports were going to be very bearish for the bonds and thought the reaction would be much swifter and more dramatic than turned out. It was actually quite smooth with a very measured pace to it.

The day started with a move lower but I couldn't get it bought down there. If I could have bought 111-21 or -22, I would have. An opportunity to buy the break above 112-00 materialized but it was so weak once we hit there I never got a shot at buying at my numbers. We sold 111-28 and then it really started gathering steam. We breezed right thru 111-16, touched -09, rolled the stop to -11 and we were out ... with 17 ticks, $531.

It was basically over for the day. It did give us a little peak at an opportunity to sell -14 but no shot at executing it. I was happy, happy regardless.

The close at 111-11 has us fixed on 111-16 or 111-00. I expect tomorrows jobs report to possibly contain some info that could drive Bonds further south. Nothing before tomorrow's report ... let the dust settle BEFORE doing anything.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.525 HI=.540 LO=.520 CL=.520

I sold 96.540. I have my stop at 96.555. If we can withstand tomorrow we might have a shot at something here.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=93 HI=18 LO=68 CL=93

A gap up on the open returned us to the 8223/8211 range ... thank you very much. I sold one at 8207. On the break of 8200 as suggested in TT , I rolled the stop to B/E. They came and got us. Out at B/E. I then sold 8209. This one was stopped at 8201 for $80. It never gave us an opportunity to re-enter before seeking out the lows of the day at 8176. Very frustrating.

The close at 8183 leaves us sitting right on our other preferred number, 8180. Same TT numbers and 8180 again tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.70 HI=2.90 LO=4.40 CL=1.50

I started the day buying 616.40 and getting stopped out at B/E. I then sold 615.80 and was stopped again at B/E. I then bought 616.20 and caught a flyer. Out at 620.30 for $410. Next up I sold 621.90. and was stopped out at 620.20 for $170. I sold 619.90 for a B/E trade and then folded my tent and disappeared.

We'll play the full array of numbers tomorrow.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=522 HI=578 LO=491 CL=574

Again, I had too much on my plate and opted to forego the Dow. Numbers were there to trade per TT. Looks like a sell of 105o5 break would have been a B/E or small profit depending on how you managed. Looks like a subsequent buy on the break above 10510 would have been a relatively easy exit right around the bottom edge of the target ... 10560 ... should have made 40-50 points, $200-$250. You then could have sold off the break below 60 and picked up a small winner ... 20-30 points. Then a buy on the break above 10540 for another 20-30. Wearin' me out.

All the same numbers from TT guidance for tomorrow if you're inclined.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=9.20 HI=0.50 LO=8.10 CL=8.40

I did 2 buys on retest of 428 and was B/E on both. Enough all ready. I buttoned it up early. We showed some weakness late in the day but 428 still held. Clue for tomorrow? We'll see.

$10 channel and 428 just as we outlined in TT is the play for Tuesday.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.25 HI=.00 LO=.10 CL=.22

Nothing at our numbers today. TT numbers rule tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=48 HI=74 LO=30 CL=52

I sold 1557 and out at 1538. Not bad given what the day was like in other trading. We captured $190.

Same TT numbers for tomorrow. I will also buy a retest of 1520 should we go there. It needs to get within 25 and fail ... then go. Given the 1552 close we should have some action here at out numbers.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.07 HI=2.07 1/4 LO=2.05 1/4 CL=2.05 1/2

No reason to change what I wrote yestrday ... Nothing at either end of our numbers today. I'll play them again tomorrow. I'm still scalping.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.15 HI=3.16 1/2 LO=3.13 CL=3.14 1/4

Darn near a reply of the range from yesterday. Still nothing for us, however.