Traders Helping Traders Daily Updare for Thursday 4-7-05

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Erich's Update for Thursday, April 7, 2005
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Hi All, Tom here. I'm pinch-hitting for Erich whilst he makes his way south. I'm going to write this as I think Erich would ... not necessarily from my perspective. If you read us both, I might say some things here I would not say over on my side and vice versa. This is not an easy task filling in for the smarter partner. As proof positive of that fact, I'm here writing while he enjoys a road trip, need I say more?

Message from the "Big E" ...

"I'm making my way to Cal-i-for-ni-a tomorrow for our weekend seminar so Tom will be following up on my nightly updates for the remainder of this week. Remember there will be no scheduled updates from Erich for the week of April 11 - 15. I'll try to give you some updates during my travels, but finding an internet connection on the road can be a little sketchy so I'm not promising anything. Shaggy will extend your membership by a week to make up for the inconvenience. See you when I get back! -Erich."
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=6 1/2 HI=8 1/4 LO=6 CL=7 1/4

Opened with a gap back up. Wallowed around all day until the very end. We then went on a little ride up which caught our breakeven roll. Th eroll was the right move I think. If you didn't roll and are still in I'd recommend rolling tomorrow if we get ant apprciable movement to the south. If you got stopped out today at B/E I'd look for an opportunity to re-establish the short trade as detailed originally.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=60 HI=00 LO=25 CL=88

We got the test of 5170 Erich was seeking. Little more than a test as we broke it pretty good. It bounced back strongly near end of day. Let's examine action tomorrow before doing anything. The rebound from the day's low lessens the short desire a bit. We'll look at it tomorrow.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=90 HI=03 LO=85 CL=86

Another bang on 2300 and a failure. Are we building energy for the launch or is 2300 this market's Kryptonite? We'll stay with the same trade rec from yesterday.

*BUY May Bean Oil at 2311
*Stop 2279
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $192 per contract
*Profit Target: 2438
*Approximate Profit Potential: $762 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=20 HI=35 LO=50 CL=52

Tell the truth gang, I'm a little confused on this one. I think there might have been a typo. in any event, we were solidly down in today's trade. We'll go with the trade Erich had up yesterday and see what shakes out tomorrow.

*BUY June Live Cattle at 8482
*Stop 8437
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8630
*Approximate Profit Potential: $590 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=25 HI=70 LO=10 CL=58

We gapped below Erich's entry point for the day. Those short from yesterday were looking very good until the last 10 minutes when we shot up to 1570. It threatened us but the stop should have held up keeping us short from Tuesday's entry. e are now right back at the number so take a look back at Tuesday's guidance and look for the opportunity to enter tomorrow. Those still short ... we'll see what is dealt to us tomorrow.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=13 1/4 HI=16 3/4 LO=13 CL=14 1/4

Hopefully all stops were rolled to protect the profits accumulated. All stops up to 316 3/4 would resulted in an exit today with a nice per contract profit. We have a big report coming out Friday. I think I might bask in the glory of our winning trade and see what shakes out Friday. If I felt I had to do something tomorrow I might be interest in selling a break below 312 1/4 with a stop at 315 1/4 looking for 302 as a target.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=93 HI=18 LO=68 CL=93

I'm going to let Erich's comments from yesterday stand ...

[YAWN!] Time to poke some fun at the Canadian Dollar so this market smartens up and goes somewhere! Rates are still hovering around the 8200 line, but I'm not interested in shorting until we get a test of 8150. Likewise I'm holding out for a test of 8356 before we look at buying again. In the meantime expect more of this mindless chop.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=5 HI=5.5 LO=3.5 CL=2

The trend line test did materialize as Erich speculated yesterday. Still not enough power to pop above though. We touched it and turned south. We'll watch again tomorrow as we just don't have enought evidence to discern the direction yet. The pennant is narrowing so it won't be long until we see a resolution.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.76 HI=.77 LO=.75 CL=.76

I think we continue on the watch for 95.84
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5 O=4.8 HI=7.9 LO=4.3 CL=6.6

We popped up another 2 and a half bucks today clearly testing the 188/189 resistance. Another retest there tommorow might be a nice short. We need to see a move back above 188 and then sell has it comes back to break it. I would eye 189.30 as a fair stop. 182 is a likely target.

*SELL May Bean Meal at 187.90
*Stop 189.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $140 per contract
*Profit Target: 182
*Approximate Profit Potential: $600 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, April 7, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-20 HI=2-00 LO=1-20 CL=1-25

Little ranges are very frustrating. It gets difficult to resist the temptation to take chances and push things along a bit. Fight the temptation ... this too shall pass.

I bought 1 at 111-22. From there we made a pretty text book climb to 111-31. The next candle after we hit -31 clearly showed we were out of gas ... I jumped out at 111-29 for 7 ticks, $218. I thought we might replicate the previous 2 days and went right back in short at 111-28. Not to be. Even though it climbed up to 112-00 it kept doing it with red candles. I probably should have bailed on the trade at 111-30 or 31 but I stayed in using the red candles as my excuse. It finally did break and made it to 25. I rolled the stop to -27 and was stopped there for 1 tick. I sold -28 again only to be stopped at 27 again for 1 tick. I moved on.

The close at -25 has us looking for trades either way off 112-00 or 111-16.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.515 HI=.530 LO=.515 CL=.520

Yet another yawner ... We're getting a good level of S&R at .52/.53. If we test into that range tomorrow and fail , I'm going to sell one with a 96.535 stop.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=93 HI=18 LO=68 CL=93

Sold 1 at 8178 on the break of 8180. Stopped at B/E. I bought 1 at 8182. I was stopped out at 8195. Sort of the reverse of yesterday's theory. Once ABOVE 8200 I didn't like the prospect of it getting below it after the fact. Out with $130.

We went to 8218 and turned south. I could have sold one on the break of 8211 per TT and made a little. It was too close to end of day to be comfortable. I passed. The close at 8193 leaves us idle until 8180 or a return to the 8223/8211 range is revisited.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.00 HI=3.20 LO=6.60 CL=8.10

When the window opened we were cruisin along about 619 going nowhere. It broke sharply from there, getting down to 617.70/80. That unfortunately was not in the array of numbers. I bought 622.40 and was stopped out at 621.70 for a $70 loss. I then bought 622.20 and rolled to B/E when we touched 623 ... out at 622.20, B/E. Next up, I sold 619.90 and I got stopped out at 618.30 making $160. I then sold 619.60 and was stopped at 617.70 where I'd rolled my stop when we touched 617. It was getting late in the session and I didn't want to be around looking at 18 anything. Out with $190. Net we took 'em for $280.

We'll play the full array of numbers tomorrow.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=486 HI=544 LO=486 CL=522

I was too busy with the Russell again and just let this slide. All the same numbers from TT guidance for tomorrow if you're inclined.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=6.70 HI=9.60 LO=6.30 CL=9.20

I bought 1 at 428.10 and exited at 429.20 for $110. $10 channel and 428 just as we outlined in TT is the play for Tuesday.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.60 HI=.00 LO=.25 CL=.88

I sold 51.55 on a nice fill scenario ...lot of good it did. Out at B/E. Sold again at 51.47 and got stopped out at 51.50 for a $25 loss. That ws it for me.
TT numbers rule tomorrow.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=70 HI=77 LO=53 CL=55

The gap down put us below all our numbers ... until late in the day. Too late for me. Same TT numbers for tomorrow. I will also buy a retest of 1520 shopuld we go there. It needs to get within 25 and fail ... then go.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.06 1/4 HI=2.08 1/4 LO=2.06 CL=2.07 1/4

Nothing at either end of our numbers today. I'll play them again tomorrow. I'm still scalping.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3 13 1/2 HI=3.16 3/4 LO=3.13 CL=3.14 1/4

Gap up never let us see 3.10. That's still my one and only number. Check that. I will buy a break above 3.17 1/2; I will sell a failed test of that price. Penny and half stops either side. 3.10 is the target on the sell; 3.30 on the buy.