Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Friday 4-29-05

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Erich's Update for Friday, April 29, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, not exactly...the Subscribers got this Thursday evening, Test Drivers get it after the fact. To get yours ON TIME...go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Scroll down for Tom's Trades.

"It's not who you are that holds you back, it's who you think you are not." - Anonymous
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=7 1/2 HI=7 1/2 LO=2 1/2 CL=3

Holey Moley, look at corn go! It's been a while since we've seen this market move like this! Honestly, I'm surprised at corn's downward momentum. I would have thought we would see a little more reluctance on the way down, but I guess not. Any guesses what the market's going to do tomorrow now that we're getting close to solid support? Stall? Yep, I'd say so.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=70 HI=45 LO=50 CL=02

Big range in cotton today, and while the market definitely looks bullish, I'm not in a buying mood just yet. Tomorrow's Friday and anything can happen in this market. I would think after this week's big ranges a smaller day might be in order.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=70 HI=72 LO=31 CL=35

Same high as yesterday as Bean Oil prices made a good move to the downside. Notice where support came? Yep, right at (near) the 2240 line we were watching.

I dunno what I want to do here. If it wasn't Friday tomorrow I'd short in a heartbeat; however the market's trading off some pretty strong support. I'd hate to get caught by a meandering market and have to hold a position over the weekend.

Think I'll just watch. A stall at support will mean an easy sell next week.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=60 HI=83 LO=45 CL=60

Ooops! Cattle stalled rather abruptly today at 8545 support. It's not all that unusual after a big down day though. Looks as though cattle might be heading lower, but I'd love to see it hold here for Friday.

Call me crazy, but there's not enough Malox in the house to help me cope with an open cattle contract over the weekend (at least at this time).
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=00 HI=05 LO=84 CL=88

Too bad cocoa stalled out today and hit our exit stops. I still think we had the right idea with this market however we got into it a little too early. Not comfortable holding this market over the weekend either so I'll have to pass tomorrow.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=29 1/2 HI=31 LO=24 3/4 C=27 1/4

Wheat's still holding support, but just barely. It's as though the market is fighting the obvious bearishness in the other grains, although it really doesn't want to go! A higher session tomorrow will confirm our suspicions and keep us looking long, otherwise we'll have to reassess our position and consider selling next week.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=91 HI=10 LO=80 CL=90

If you're still short the CD trade then you'll want to consider bringing in those exit stops a bit as rates came just 3 ticks short of our first profit target today. Other than that I don't see anything new for tomorrow.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=9 HI=9.5 LO=1 CL=4.8

Silver tanked hard today. It was actually a very nice session, one without too much chop and would have been nice to take part of; however we didn't have enough structure to base a position trade on. Nothing new here for tomorrow.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.975 HI=.035 LO=.95 CL=.015

Well we definitely had the right idea about this market too bad we missed the entry by a couple of ticks. Not too worry though, we'll get another chance at this market soon enough.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, April 29, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-17 HI=5-04 LO=4-11 CL=5-01

The GDP affected the market this morning. We now have a weaker than expected economy with core inflation idicators showing signs of rising. Is it in balance enough enough to allow the FED to continue with the rate increases as planned or will they have to back off to accomodate this softness? After some volatility we came down on the side of believing they'll be forced to at least slow the pace of increases if not delay them indefinitely.

I bought one at 114-21 and was stopped out at -23 at about quarter till 8 CDT. Plus 2. I bought -21 again about 11:25. We finally began to move but we were really pushing the final hour. I put in an order to sell at 114-31 and was taken out there for 10 tick, $312.

The close at 115-01 makes for a tough stop to tomorrow's session. I will buy the break of 115-00 but we may not get a shot to sell until 114-24 or 114-16 depending on how you're playing. We may see some small spec, late as usual, buying early in the session tomorrow as the "indicator crowd" scramble to react to their chart work from tonight. Look for them to get slammed as the market breaks to the downside. Without some additional reasons tomorrow I don't think 115-00 can be sustained. There are some important reports coming tomorrow ... personal income and outlays, a FED favorite and U of Mich Consumer Sentiment ... in the morning. Let's say NO TRADING for the first half an hour. No buying, PERIOD, tomorrow above 114-16.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.590 HI=.610 LO=.585 CL=.595

The GDP induced bounce got us today. We were stopped out at 96.605 for a $12 loss. We'll just watch tomorrow.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=91 HI=10 LO=80 CL=90

Sometimes all you need do is let them know what you'd like to see ... lol. I bought one at 7985. At 92 I brought the trade stop to B/E. At 8000 I rolled it to 7997. When we touched 8010 I moved the stop to 8007 and was stopped at 8005 for $200. Same exact numbers from yesterday for tomorrow.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=8.00 HI=8.40 LO=2.80 CL=4.30

I succeeded in getting one sold at 585.50 and dumping it at 582.50 for $300. I tried to do it again but was too slow on the draw as it fell off sharply after the retest of 585.50. There was a potential for a $1000 in there today. I never got a shot at any more of it. All the same numbers again tomorrow, plus I'll buy a break above 580.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=4.10 HI=5.30 LO=2.20 CL=2.40

$10 Channel for tomorrow ... patience.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.70 HI=.45 LO=.50 CL=.02

It did get up there, but too late in the day for me to do anything about it. Drat! Same numbers from yesterday for tomorrow
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=00 HI=05 LO=84 CL=88

I bought 1487. At 1500 I rolled my stop to 1497 and I got stopped out at 1495 for $80. That was it for the day as they hid my numbers from me until it was too late to do anything.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.17 1/2 HI=2.17 1/2 LO=2.12 1/2 CL=2.13

I sold 2.16 1/2 shortly after the open. We just ground lower all day long. 2.13 was so, so obvious ... I bailed right there. Out with $175. Tomorrow we'll trade 2.13 either way with penny and a QUARTER stops. I 'd love to see an opening press on 2.12 in the morning and then a failure ... juicy buy. I'll also buy a break above 2.13. We are still what? Yup, scalpers. is right.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.29 1/2 HI=3.31 LO=3.24 3/4 CL=3.27 1/4

I sold 3.25 3/4 and was stopped at B/E. I turned right around and bought 3.26 1/2 and rolled my stop to B/E as it climbed above 3.27. When we went above 3.28 I brought it to 3.27 1/4. I thought seriously about holding overnight but reminded myself that I'm a scalper right now and dumped it at 3.28 for a penny and a half, $75.

Same numbers for tomorrow plus I will either buy a break above 3.30 or sell a retest of anything above 3.29 that fails and heads south. Penny and a half stops.