Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, 4-27-05

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Erich's Update for Wednesday, April 27, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you! Well, not exactly...the Subscribers got this Tuesday evening, Test Drivers get it after the fact. To get yours ON TIME...go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Scroll down for Tom's Trades.

"It's not who you are that holds you back, it's who you think you are not." - Anonymous
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2 1/4 HI=2 1/2 LO=0 1/4 CL=1 3/4

Corn stalled slightly today, but didn't give anything back as support held firm. I'm still looking to buy this market but need to be able to get in at a good price. I'd dearly love to see the market fall off, even a little, tomorrow.

If we get a test of the 218 support then I'll be all over buying this market on Thursday. I'll press my luck and give it one more day to shake itself out.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=50 HI=50 LO=00 CL=47

Another higher day for cotton today, but don't look for this market to continue higher tomorrow. Cotton's moved a long way and is due to "normalize" a bit, which I think we'll see happen beginning tomorrow.

Don't worry. We'll have another chance at this market in a day or two.
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=95 HI=95 LO=67 CL=79

Bean Oil has me a bit puzzled. The market is trading just for the sake of trading, but really isn't going anywhere.

We've got prices trapped between 2240 and 2340. I'm not certain I want to do anything with this market tomorrow however.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=05 HI=30 LO=67.5 CL=12.5

Boy, it's been a long time between cattle trades for us. Usually this market gives us some decent setups, but nothing lately. All I know is that it looks as though prices are coming down tomorrow, but I don't see anything tradable.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=90 HI=95 LO=74 CL=76

Got the test of 1475 today on a pretty bearish day overall. Cocoa's still quite oversold, and while this does not mean that prices have to trade higher, it does make me a little more comfortable looking at a countertrend trade for tomorrow.

This isn't an idea situation mind you; however we might be able to pick up a couple of bucks on a bounce. No doubt we're not the only traders out there who recognize a good deal when we see one, so let's look at buying cocoa tomorrow above resistance.

*BUY July Cocoa at 1503
*Stop 1487
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 1554
*Approximate Profit Potential: $510 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=29 1/2 HI=35 1/2 LO=29 C=33 1/2

Wheat managed to hold it's own today as prices traded within yesterday's range. Look for wheat prices to fall off a bit and test support tomorrow, maybe getting back to the 326 area before recovering.

I'm watching RSI at the moment. If it dips a little lower then we'll get all over buying this market again.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=60 HI=64 LO=10 CL=40

Notice where the CD made it's low today? Yep, right at 8010...anyone still wonder if support and resistance works?

I knew the 8010 support could be trouble for our trade which it obvious was today. But no matter, the market left us enough room that we can get stops to breakeven for tomorrow. If we're really lucky we'll see it open gap down and not look back!

We can always hope.
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8: JULY SILVER
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SIN5 O=0.5 HI=6.5 LO=6 CL=0.2

It's been a long time since I've seen silver so paralyzed that the market doesn't make any ranges. The ranges of the last two days are nearly identical and could be bracketed like a channel; however I'm going to look at the buy scenario only.

*BUY July Silver at 741
*Stop 736
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 764.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1175 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.935 HI=.94 LO=.865 CL=.895

The ED inched closer to our entry today but came up a little short. I'll run with the same trade again tomorrow but realize that the entry might be out of reach.

*BUY March Eurodollar at 95.8475
*Stop 95.7975
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 96.11
*Approximate Profit Potential: $650 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, April 27, 2005
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Jacki's Dad has been in the hospital for 2 weeks. He was released this afternoon and we've spent most of the night getting him settled in, so this update is even later than normal. I'm hopeful a change will soon occur in my schedule ... I'm working on it ... hard. This change will put me home at a more normal 5 or 6 instead of 10 pm or later as it is now. Let's all keep our fingers crossed, shall we?

Jacki's at his apartment for the night so I'm left to my own devices, listening to John Lee Hooker, Merle Haggard, Waylon Jennings and Joe Cocker ... how's that for some eclectic mix ... and typing as fast as my fat little fingers can go ...
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-13 HI=4-18 LO=3-22 CL=4-02

Despite a tumble in consumer confidence levels, the strong, strong resale new home sales numbers were all it took to convince the rate sensitive issues to head lower in the belief this sector strength will hasten rate increases from the FOMC ... yadda, yadda, yadda.

The open at 114-13, a little climb to -18 was a nice setup to the drop that followed. We sold one at -14 that was stopped out at B/E. I resold at -08 on a nice but lucky fill, consistent with the experiment in process. I tried to get one resold at -14 but couldn't. We broke -28 and I rolled to -31. We then broke to -23 and I rolled to -25 and was stopped at -25 for 15 ticks, $468. I bought -25 and rolled to -28 as we tapped 114-00. They came and got us. Out at 113-28 for another 3 ticks, $93.

The settlement at 114-02 has me working 114-00, 114-08 and 114-16 for tomorrow's open. You'll be on 114-00 and 114-16 unless we gap lower opening under 114-00. Then the focus will be 114-00 and 113-16 for you all. 114-00 and 113-24 for me.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.590 HI=.595 LO=.565 CL=.575

I'll just parrot yesterday's comments ... we retain our short position from Thursday. Stop is now 96.605 ... just shy of B/E. I hate those round, round numbers. This pegs the risk at $12.50. We press on into tomorrow.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=60 HI=64 LO=10 CL=40

8060 was sure the number to start this day. Only problem was I didn't see as strong enough to warrant an entry. I should have, 'cause it is. Not a very good read, Tom. That would have been a pretty easy $500. Oh well. I bought one at 8025 and got stopped at B/E.

Tomorrow I'll go again at 8016/23 buying as it breaks back above 23 or tests it and fails. I actually expect it to test 8010 or vicinity again tomorrow. I will sell a retest of 8060 that fails and also a retest of 8080 that fails. I'll also buy a break above 8080 ... but don't count on that happening.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.00 HI=0.00 LO=7.50 CL=8.40

I thought 600.00 was close enough to be considered a test of 600.30. I sold 599.80 and out at 596.60 for for $320. Never gave me numbers after that. Late, late in the day it got down close to 586, hitting 587.50. Not close enough but very watchful.

It's down there right now so be prepared on the opening of the RTH trading window. Lookin' real juicy. We'll see.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=8.70 HI=9.10 LO=7.00 CL=9.00

I didn't think the early first move on 439.00 had a confirm attached to it. I sat tight. At 439.10 I thought we had one and sold 438.50. Stopped at 437.80 on a .70 stop for $70.

$10 channel for tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.50 HI=.50 LO=.00 CL=.47

Nothing for us today. Same numbers for tomorrow.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=90 HI=95 LO=74 CL=76

I really want to buy 1475. We settled right there at 1476. I need to see a press lower and a clear failure ... then I'll go. Buy 1475 or as close as possible. The stop is 1471. Get it to B/E at 83. I like 1580 as a destination. You gotta' roll at 1500, 1520, 1540 and start squeezing in ernest at 1560 and above.
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8: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=2.22 1/4 HI=2.22 1/2 LO=2.20 1/4 CL=2.21 3/4

Opening volatility put me on the sidelines for a bit. The balance of the day was spent in a tight half cent sideways channel. I sold 1 at 2.21 3/4. I watched it try to break below 2.21 about a hundred times. No thanks. I bailed at B/E. I'll try it again tomorrow with the same numbers. Please remember the first buying op comes on the break above 2.24. I do not think it wise to buy below there.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WN5 O=3.29 1/2 HI=3.35 1/2 LO=3.29 CL=3.33 1/2

Only one play for right now. I will sell a break below 3.26 with a cent and a half stop or I will buy a retest of 3.26 that fails with the same penny and a half at risk.