Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Thursday, 4-21-05

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Market Update for Thursday, April 21, 2005
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1: JULY CORN
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CN5 O=8 1/4 HI=9 1/2 LO=7 1/4 CL=9

Corn continued higher today...no surprise. We're getting close to some heavier resistance though, especially around today's high and 221. Would love to see a reaction here as it would mean we're that much closer to our next trade.
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2: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=70 HI=40 LO=25 CL=85

Cotton you evil market you! Why do you continue to tease!

Notice how price tested support yet another day before rallying higher. Cotton is bound and bent that it's going to get me to buy it. Okay, here you go, a buy and sell order for tomorrow. Hopefully if we get a bullish breakout it will be substantial. I'm getting a little tired of getting whipped.

*BUY July Cotton at 5603
*Stop 5553
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 5769
*Approximate Profit Potential: $830 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL July Cotton at 5274
*Stop 5316
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $210 per contract
*Profit Target: 5063
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1055 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: JULY BEAN OIL
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BON5 O=30 HI=35 LO=71 CL=87

Oops! Bean oil seems to have reacted somewhat to the resistance at 2330-ish. Not what I wanted to see today but hopefully prices will continue higher tomorrow. Have to leave stops where they are for the moment.
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4: JUNE LIVE CATTLE
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LCM5 O=75 HI=07.5 LO=25 CL=52.5

Got my wish today as Cattle prices found the 8600 resistance. A lower session tomorrow will get me looking short again. I'm tempted to try and sell the market below today's low; however I'm not too comfortable with that idea right now. Think I'll just wait for the reaction.
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5: JULY COCOA
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CCN5 O=51 HI=78 LO=51 CL=63

Here cocoa...just a little bit closer...that's a good market! Cocoa pulled a little closer to our 1595 - 1600 resistance today and a little closer to the RSI trendline. While we might run out of time to sell this market this week I think we might have a great setup for early next week.
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6: JULY WHEAT
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WN5 O=19 HI=24 LO=18 1/2 CL=21

Wheat climbed to the 324 resistance today, just shy of the 325 resistance we were looking at. RSI shows the market at the 50% level, so it will be interesting to see if we get a reaction here. If we do we'll try to sell it some more.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=78 HI=94 LO=35 CL=74

The CD's in definite pullback mode now. Look for a possible reaction at 8120 or 8150 before trying to sell the market again. I'm still preferring the short side of this market, at least for the time being.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=3 HI=6 LO=0 CL=3.7

Yeech! I'd really like to try and get into the silver market but the market's not giving us much of a chance to do anything. Prices are trading near resistance, but nothing strong enough to initiate a trade from. I'd love to see prices fall off a bit the next few days so we can try to scoop it off support again.
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9: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.05 HI=.07 LO=.935 CL=.055

The ED continues to struggle with the 9608 - 9610 resistance today. Rates fell off marginally as the market continues to show lots of strength (notice the high closing price?)

I entertained buying the market on a break above the 9610 line; however I think I'll hold off and see if we don't see a testing of the 9585 support - this would be an ideal area to buy from.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market for tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, April 20, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=4-04 HI=4-12 LO=3-12 CL=4-09

After giving the Bonds some room to digest CPI ... and aren't you glad we did? ... we found ourselves at 113-16. I bought -21 and was stopped out at B/E. Bought -21 a second time with a much better result:) Out at -29 for plus 8, $250 as it failed very significantly at 114-00. Sold -28 for another B/E. Sold -28 again and was stopped at -29 losing 1 tick. Sold -28 and stopped out at -26 for plus 2. I became a believer we weren't going lower after this one. As we moved into the final hour I buttoned it up for the day. The take for the day is 9 tick, $287.

The close at 114-09 puts us on 114-16 and 114-00 for tomorrow.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.630 HI=.630 LO=.575 CL=.625

That was a nasty little day for the ED. We let the CPI dust settle so didn't jump the break of .600. Same plan from yesterday guides our actions tomorrow.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=20 HI=75 LO=13 CL=59

I sold 8076 as a failure to break 8080. We broke 8040 and I brought the stop to 41 on the "I don't want it coming back above 40 after breaking it" theory. Stopped out at 8044 for $330. I then bought 42 with a 33 stop. When we broke above 70, I brought the stop to 67 ... sure enough they came and got me. Out at 8067 with $250 more.

8080 portion of the weekend TT guidance is the opening focus for tomorrow. If we gap below there, then 8040.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=7.20 HI=0.40 LO=5.20 CL=7.10

We still have nothing to play with. We are building structure ... filling our sandbox as it were.
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5: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=5.00 HI=7.40 LO=3.00 CL=6.70

Nothing for us today. Same strategies and numbers from TT weekend again tomorrow.
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6: JULY COTTON
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CTN5 O=.70 HI=.40 LO=.25 CL=.85

I started off the day in Cotton selling 54.90. As we broke below 60 I started squeezing on 54.50 by rolling the stop to 54.61. Stopped out at 54.70 for $100. Next was a sell at 54.95. I rolled it to B/E at 54.85 and was stopped at B/E. I sold 1 at 54.95 again and widened my stop a bit. I made it 55.23 and we finally got something to work with. As we broke 5330 I rolled to 43 and was stopped out at 53.50, $725.

Had we not rolled as agressively as we did we would have nearly given it all back at the end of day.
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7: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=51 HI=78 LO=51 CL=63

Another nothing day. Didn't give us a peek at either 1520 or 1580. Kept us safe and dry. Technically speaking 1578 was close enough to trade. I didn'y get over to the chart quickly enough and it was too far gone. If you were more on the ball than I was you might have made a small profit.

Same numbers and reasoning as discussed in TT weekend.
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8: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.10 1/4 HI=2.11 1/2 LO=2.09 CL=2.10 3/4

The big candle failure on the open spooked me a bit. I waited for a bit and just watched. I finally bought 2.10 1/2 and got stopped out at B/E. I bought it one more time and was stopped out at 2.09 1/4 losing $62.

I need a break above 2.12 1/2 in order to buy. 2.11 1/4 is the stop. A break below 2.09 is a sell with a 2.10 1/4 stop.
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9: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.08 1/4 HI=3.14 LO=3.08 1/4 CL=3.10 3/4

Didn't give us the number. I'll go after the same TT numbers tomorrow ... unless we're crazy volatility tomorrow.