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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, April 14, 2005
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Subscribers got these on yesterday evening - Test Drivers are getting theirs this morning. If you'd like to get yours up front and on time, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
Erich won't be back home til April 15th, and won't be doing any Daily Updates or Big Weekend Edition until then.
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=2-24 HI=3-04 LO=2-10 CL=2-19
We got off a couple of trades today. We first sold 112-28 after the opening flurry. We rode it to -19 and got stopped at -22 for 6. After the market climbed back to 112-31, we sold again at 112-28. We were stopped out at 112-18 for 10 ... total of 16 ticks on the day. I said 15 in the webinar tonight when we talked Bonds. I had the entry and exit right, I just can't add and subtract. Sorry Steve, we tied ... lol.
The close at 112-19 sets up 113-00 and 112-16 again tomorrow.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.520 HI=.540 LO=.520 CL=.535
There was the bounce, boys and girls. I remain short from 96.540. Did you join me? A nice failure right on the line. Same plays tomorrow if you aren't already with us.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=89 HI=12 LO=78 CL=84
Goose eggs again in the CD today. The good news is ... or could be ... we dropped down into an area containing a good amount of structure to read. I'll sell a break of 8080 tomorrow with a very tight stop at 8083. I don't want it coming backabove 80 whilst I'm still short. The roll to B/E comes at 8071 and the target is 8040. We'll start squeezing the trade below 50.
I will aslo buy a move above 8080 IF we FIRST move lower, fail and then go higher. The max fill I'll settle for is 8085. The B/E hits at 8089 and the target is 8180. There is a good amount of intervening resistance between this entry and the target so me must protect with tight rolls at 8100, 8120, 40 and 60.
I'll also buy a test and failure to punch lower at 8040 with a stop at 8037 and a B/E roll at 47. Th etarget is still 8180. Use the numbers above plus 8060 for roll targets.
When we are faced with markets like this ... bunches of support and resistance and uniform levels ... here they are about every 20 points ... the risk of getting whipsawed is very great. To combat this we want to do 2 things. First limit our trading to ONLY the strongest of the S&R lines or ranges and second, use tighter even than normal stops and roll agressively.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=4.50 HI=4.80 LO=2.20 CL=3.50
I watched a bit after the window opened and then sold 613.10. I was stopped out at 612.40 fot $70. I then sold 612.90. This trade was stopped out at 611.60 for $130. Next in line was a sell at 612.70. I managed to ride this one down to 609.10 for $360. That ended the day for us. The nice moves that followed escaped us.
For tomorrow, we'll play all the same numbers plus we'll add a buy on a break above 604 or subsequent retests accompanied by failures to push lower.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5
The Dow is being retired as of yesterday. I will no longer follow this market.
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6: JUNE GOLD
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GCM5 O=9.80 HI=1.50 LO=8.80 CL=1.00
We just needed a bit lower on that post open run south and I would have bought it off the 428 support. Wasn't to be. We finally got a confirmation of the 430/440 channel but it was too late in the day to be traded. Patience.
$10 channel and 428 for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.00 HI=.85 LO=.90 CL=.22
One more day of May trading. I will move to July on Friday for absolute sure.
Nothing today as we slipped south pretty dramatically.
Kinda' marginal, but I will sell a failed retest of 51.50 tomorrow. The stop is at 51.69 with a roll to B/E at 51.41. The target is 49.00. Protect the trade profits every 25 points on the move lower. Do not let the proposition risk more than 30 points of accumulated profits ever and never more than 15 at each of the 25 point roll triggers.
I will buy a break above 51.50 with a stop at 51.43 at most. The buy requires us to play only the top 25% of structure on the chart. Extra careful and tight on the buy. I'll still keep my eye on the taller numbers cited Monday for Tuesday's trade.
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8: JULY COCOA
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CON5 O=80 HI=89 LO=73 CL=81
NOW TRADING JULY CONTRACT
Nothing at our numbers today. Same deal for tomorrow.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.06 1/4 HI=2.06 1/4 LO=2.03 3/4 CL=2.05 3/4
I bought 2.04. This might have been pushing the envelope of the 2.03 support. It just felt right. I have the stop at 2.05 1/4 and am holding overnight.
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10: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.09 1/2 HI=3.13 1/2 LO=3.09 CL=3.10 1/4
We got two shots at 3.10 area trades. One too early, one too late. Play the same numbers from Monday again tomorrow.
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