Traders Helping Traders Daily Updates for Thursday, March 3, 2005

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Erich's Update for Thursday, March 3, 2005
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=4 HI=4 LO=7 3/4 CL=9

Got some support at 217 today although we were a touch light of the support line. Decision time: do we wait for a reaction, or do we plan a buy now? For those of you who like living on the edge you could buy AT 217 to see if you can scoop the market from the low. Keep an exit order nearby as this is tough to do, but very gratifying when you get it done.

Think I'll take the more conservative approach however and look to buy after we see a reaction to support. I'd consider buying right now; however today's big range is too prohibitive.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=40 HI=65 LO=75 CL=19

Scary day in cotton today...good thing we were only watching. Support at 4970 - 4975 is still holding but just like yesterday I'm not keen on selling just yet. I'll continue to look for the next opportunity to buy but I'm not sure that tomorrow is it.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=45 HI=54 LO=94 CL=11

Bean oil traded to the 50% retracement today; however prices didn't seem to like that too much as they quickly fell off from there. I'm not usually too keen about taking a trade like this; however another break above the 50% might see prices trade higher to the next retracement.

*BUY May Bean Oil at 2357
*Stop 2329
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $168 per contract
*Profit Target: 2459
*Approximate Profit Potential: $612 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=75 HI=15 LO=35 CL=80

Somebody in the Cattle pit really doesn't like us. The market behaved beautifully today, falling off nice and steady until we hit the 8530 support again - then it was like someone stuck a pin in the side of the cattle market and prices took off like a shot and rallied right to near where they began.

Goofy day folks. Cost us a couple of hun if you tried the more aggressive trade. If you were sticking with the weekend plan you're still in the clear.

Might run the weekend trade tomorrow, but given today's reaction I doubt very much that I'll get filled.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=20 HI=25 LO=05 CL=20

Small day for cocoa today. Something resembling a pullback but nothing too aggressive to the downside. Would actually like to see one more profit taking session tomorrow before we look at buying on Friday (yikes!)

We'll see what we get.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=43 1/2 HI=46 1/2 LO=38 3/4 CL=40 1/2

Not much of a reaction today, eh? Prices gave us another hit on the 346 1/2 level, so I'll look to buy above here but I'd really prefer to see prices fall off a bit more first.

*BUY May Wheat at 347 1/4
*Stop 342 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 365 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=60 HI=80 LO=49 CL=77

Yeech! What a mess. This market truly doesn't know if it wants to go higher or lower. After today's reaction to the 8040 I wouldn't be surprised to see a rally to the 8130 resistance to check out the topside again.

Think I'll just stand aside for now.
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8: MARCH SILVER
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SIH5 O=3.5 HI=4 LO=0 CL=0.7

Got support at 710 today...a day late, but better late than never, right? Might look at buying again using the weekend trade; however if you wanted to be more aggressive you could buy above today's high.

*BUY March Silver at 738.5
*Stop 733.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 755
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.975 HI=.02 LO=.965 CL=.005

Slight more bullish day today, which is what we were hoping for. I'd like to see rates increase a little more tomorrow before we look for another chance to sell. Certainly if the market retraces to 9611 we'll be getting VERY serious about shorting again.
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10: WILD CARD - APRIL LEAN HOGS
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LHJ5 O=30 HI=95 LO=45 CL=65

Got the reaction to resistance on today's high as prices backed up pretty much to where they began. Interesting to note that RSI broke the trendline today. I'll be holding off one more session to confirm resistance before selling but if you wanted to be more aggressive look to sell below today's low. Hope the market doesn't run away on me. ;-)
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, March 3, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-30 HI=2-08 LO=1-24 CL=2-01

We opened the day selling 111-28 and getting stopped out at 111-27 for one whole point. We then bought 112-03 only to be stopped at 112-04 for another 1 tick. bought -03 for a B/E. That was all the excitement I could handle in 1 day. We ended the day at 112-01 putting us on 112-00 for tomorrow. We'll go either way, buy or sell, depending on how the wind blows. After that it's 112-16 or 111-16.
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2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH5 O=.990 HI=.995 LO=.987 CL=.990

We sit, we watch, we zzzzzzzz ... A real snore job here. It'll move, soon, maybe, well ... perhaps. :)
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3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O=48 HI=70 LO=37 CL=68

We only got as high as 8068. No breaks of any of our numbers ... nothing done.
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4: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTH5 O=7.30 HI=8.50 LO=6.50 CL=7.90
Hopefully we'll get more proficient at reading the chart as we go along. Get a little more used to the spacing and the cycles. A few weeks from now, faced with the same chart, I suspect we might have bought on the break above 635 early in the day. I think I might have been too cautious ... 635 is strong enough to trade. We should have.

We did a little damage to the sure footedness of the chart with the pop above 640 today. It pulled back very quickly, but damage none the less. We bought 640.50 rolled to B/E at 641.50. The violent failure at 643.50 had me headed for the exits as fast as I could go. I closed out at 642.70 for $220. We then sold 637.60 nand bailed at 636.60 for $100. $320 for the day and done.

We ended the our trading window with the market right on 637.90. We'll see where they position us us in the morning for the RTH open. Same guidance from TT and Monday's Update for tomorrow.
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5: MARCH $5 DOW
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EYMH5 O=809 HI=823 LO=804 CL=818

A bit of the same Russell story is applicable hear. Somr damage done the resistance up top and then a swift correction. We sold 10839. I exited at 10798. I tried to do it earlier but couldn't get the order done as fast as I'd wished. Still, 41 is 41, is $205. We were all done at that point.

Same numbers and guidance from TT for tomorrow.
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=5.80 HI=5.00 L=0.50 CL=3.80

Finally, a little reward for our patience. I bought 431.60. It is arguable whether we had a confirmation or no. Truth told, probably not. I viewed the gap open as the confirm by virtue of its own merit. I was stopped out at B/E. THAT WAS THE CONFIRM, DUMMY. I should have waited for it instead of trying to prove how smart I was. I was lucky it didn't cost me any money. I then bought 431.80. I noticed in my analysis that 434 is rapidly becoming a force of S&R much like 424 was a month or so ago. When we got above 433.50 I brought my stop to 433.10 and got hit right there ... out with $130. We corrected back to 432.10. That wasn't quite far enough to let me buy again, of course, off we went.

$10 Channel tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.40 HI=.65 LO=.75 CL=.19

Wicked day! I bought 51.45 and was stopped out at 51.40 for a loss of $25. I was going to sell the break below 50.00 but it came at the end of such a long run I backed away.

I'm a watcher tomorrow. Too whippy for me to get comfortable with RRR on anything.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=30 HI=54 LO=20 CL=52

A tough day for those long. Still a watcher not an acter [sic]
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.24 HI=2.24 LO=2.17 3/4 CL=2.19

I sold 2.21 3/4 with a stop at 2.22 3/4 for risk of $50. When we hit 2.17 3/4 I rolled the stop to 2.18 3/4 and was filled at 2.19. We picked up 2 3/4 cents $137.

We have a really great set up with the close today at 2.19 again. We have big S&R at 2.18 and 2.17. I'll sell a break below 2.17; I will buy a retest into the penny range as it comes back above 2.18. @.17 1/4 is the stop on the buy, 2.18 1/4 is the stop on the sell. I'll also sell a retest of 2.22 that fails to break out above and I'll buy the break out above. Love those S&R ranges.
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.44 HI=3.46 1/2 LO=3.38 3/4 CL=3.40 1/2

We have a double top at 3.46 1/2. I'll sell aretest and failure there. I would view anything above 3.44 as a retest. First choice on the stop is 3.46 3/4. If the fill is closer to 3.44 you might want to shorten the stop up just a tad.
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