Traders Helping Traders Daily Updates for Wednesday March 2nd

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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, March 2, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O-2-09 HI-2-10 LO-1-29 CL-2-06

A very lackluster day on the heels of our great day yesterday. We remained in a narrow range bounded by 112-09 and 112-01 for most of the day. I made 2 trades attempting to catch something from the bounces back above 112-03. Both of these ended in B/E trades. I did a third trade buying 112-03 just before noon Chicago time. I approached this trade with a belief we'd not go higher than 112-09. I just wanted to make something on the day. I jumped ship at 112-08 picking up 5 ticks, $156.

Tomorrow we'll be poised to rumble at 112-00 selling the break below or buying the bounce back higher. We will also be eyeing 112-16 with the same approach, buying the breakout above, selling the test and subsequent failure. ========================================================
2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
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EDH5 O–.987 HI–.992 LO–.982 CL–.990

A lower low and high is about all to be said for today's activity. They also serve who watch and wait :) ========================================================
3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDH5 O-05 HI-13 LO-30 CL-58

We sold one at 8096. With 8080 and 8060 right below us, the management had to be tight. I had the stop at 8073 when we went thru that level and was stopped out at 8077 for $190. I then sold 8077. As we got into the low 8060's I rolled to 8071. As the low 50's showed I rolled to 8061. They came and got us and then dropped like a stone ... so frustrating. It's that ol' bug/windshield dynamic. picked up another $160. We ended the day back at 8058, just below the 8060 S7R line. We'll start there with the guidance from weekend TT.
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4: MARCH MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTH5 O-3.80 HI-0.20 LO-3.20 CL-8.30

We sold 637.90. I rolled and was stopped out at 634.60 making $330. Sold 637.60 and out at 636.60 for $100. Sold 637.30 and stopped out at 635.30 picking up another $200. Why would anyone daytrade the S&P emini with this going on right under their nose? Beats me. On the TT numbers again tomorrow.
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5: MARCH $5 DOW
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EYMH5 O-775 HI-857 LO-763 CL-827

It came close to the 107.50 mark in the wee hours of the morning. During our watch cycle we only saw 10784. That would have been nice as it climbed pretty strongly from there right back to 10840. I finally did sell 10835. We went to 10800 and pretty much died there for a bit. I bailed at 10802 grabbing 33 ticks, $165. From there it went all the way back to 10850's. I would have sold again there but it was well into the final hour. We dropped to almost 10800 again in the final half hour. We'll play yesterday's guidance again tomorrow.
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O-6.50 HI-6.70 LO-2.00 CL-3.90

A nice $400 plus daily range but nothing at our numbers to latch on to any of it. $10 Channel again tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O-.70 HI-.20 LO-.70 CL-.59

Nothing for us today as we saw the market do a little correcting. I'll play the numbers from yr=esterday again tomorrow. 50.00 lookin' pretty yummy again. Not for me, but again, I wouldn't argue very hard against doing it if we get a test and then failure to go lower there.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O-30 HI-54 LO-20 CL-52

Not AS strong, but strong still. Expect more. I'm still sitting on the sidelines.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.21 1/2 HI=2.21 3/4 LO=2.19 CL=2.19 1/4

I sold 2.21 1/2 and have my stop at B/E. We'll stay with it into the morning session opening if possible. Opps, apparently we won't as we were stopped out. I don't have my fill yet but it should be real close to our number. I'm watching tomorrow unless it breaks 2.22 headed south. I'll sell this scenario.
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.41 1/2 HI=3.43 1/2 LO=3.37 CL=3.38 1/4

A very small correction marks this day's activity. I'm still a watcher.
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Erich'sUpdate for Wednesday, March 2, 2005
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"Have no fear of what the future holds, for God holds the future." - Eugene Collins
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O-1 1/2 HI-1 3/4 LO-9 CL-9 1/4

And let the profit taking begin! Corn prices fell off a bit today, no doubt due to profit taking at the 225 resistance from yesterday. Fundamentally everyone is saying there's nothing to hold corn prices up; however I think we will see another rally in the near future. For the time being however, we're in an uptrend, so I'll avoid selling. Would like to see support at 217 tomorrow which would get me looking to buy again.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O-70 HI-20 LO-70 CL-59

If you've ever wondered why I use profit taking targets today's action in cotton should answer your question. Yesterday we were up $800 and today the market tried to take it all away. If you were trading multiple contracts you likely got stopped out of your remaining holdings today, but with a decent profit, so it's not all bad.

Expecting cotton to head lower tomorrow, that's pretty much a given, but since it's a countertrend trade I'm leaving it alone. If you are more daring than I am try to sell it below the low to the 4800 support line.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O-10 HI-28 LO-70 CL-91

Got stopped out on the open in Bean Oil today. Pocketed a little over $520 for our trouble, so I'm happy. Looks as though prices might try to test support over the next few days. A reaction around 2150 or 2200 could get me long again.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O-20 HI-90 LO-20 CL-50

Cattle continue to be coy, trading within yesterday's range. We have several options available to us now. The safest option is to stick with the weekend plan and/or wait for the market to show us resistance before selling.

The next safest plan is to go with yesterday's entry numbers and sell the market at 8577. The third, and most aggressive plan is to sell cattle on a break of the 8610 - 8620 support. I will be a little more demanding however, and look for prices to break 8600 before selling.

*SELL April Live Cattle at 8597
*Stop 8652
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $210 per contract
*Profit Target: 8402
*Approximate Profit Potential: $780 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O-30 HI-54 LO-20 CL-52

Cocoa stalled slightly today. I'd normally consider a buy above resistance when this happens, but the overbought nature of the market is making me a little reluctant to buy in right now. I would much rather prefer to see a bit of a pullback before attempting anything.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O-41 1/2 HI-43 1/2 LO-37 CL-38 1/4

Wheat gave us a reaction a little earlier than expected but it's welcome all the same. Would like to see prices fall off a bit, maybe to the 328 line, or better yet 323, if that's not too demanding, before looking to buy in again.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O-15 HI-18 LO-40 CL-67

How do you make the Canadian Dollar decline? Threaten to buy it! LOL!

The CD fell off nicely today and never threatened our buy order. This is fine, since the market didn't do as we expected; therefore our order was not filled. Always keep in mind that we are traders and not forecasters, there's a BIG difference. I'd like to sell the market tomorrow; however we've got familiar support at the 8040 low. If we see another lower session then we'll look at selling - if the setup is right.
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8: MARCH SILVER
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SIH5 O-4.5 HI-4.5 LO-7 CL-2.9

Silver followed the CD lower today as the US Dollar rallied. Like the Canadian Dollar, silver finds itself at reasonably strong support at the 717 - 719 area. Since this market is in an uptrend I would avoid the countertrend trade anyway, but I'll look for a confirmation of support as a signal to buy.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O-.985 HI-.01 LO-.955 CL-.975

Well whaddaya know...the support line held! ;-) Okay, this is beginning to look a little more promising now. Ideally we will see rates hike a little higher over the next day or two before we look at selling again. Even if we get one more tag on today's support, that would give us a comfortable entry level for a sell. I am expecting rates to rally, but given the strong downtrend I will avoid buying at the moment.
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10: WILD CARD - APRIL LEAN HOGS
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LHJ5 O-75 HI-70 LO-50 CL-25

Yep, I was right about the trade after all, unfortunately we were just one day early. I see from the forum that some of you might have timed your trade a little better than I did, so you are currently long the market. Look for initial resistance to occur on today's high after which I think you'll be okay until 7640 - 7650.