Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday 3-30-05

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ERICH's Update for Wednesday, March 30, 2005
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Tom's Trades were emailed out to the test drivers, so this is just Erich's Update for this issue.
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1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2 1/4 HI=4 1/2 LO=1 1/2 C=3

Small day for corn as prices stalled on the 215 resistance. Still at breakeven and looking for prices to continue higher but I'm not holding out a lot of hope. We're nearing the 50% on RSI so we could see a bounce tomorrow.

Remember Thursday is Planting Report day, so we should see something more decisive then.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=00 HI=60 LO=20 CL=58

What did I tell you? Bounce-a-rooney, right off the 5400 resistance. Sure the market fudged the line by a bit...okay a lot, but we did see a reaction off the RSI trendline.

A lower session tomorrow will get me more aggressive about selling, but right now I'm still a little chicken.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=87 HI=05 LO=80 CL=87

Looks like Bean Oil has hit "channel mode" in anticipation of Thursday's report. Seems a little premature, but right now I'm standing aside.

If we see a higher, or lower session tomorrow then we'll look at another entry.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=25 HI=45 LO=00 CL=10

No surprise that cattle stalled today after yesterday's big rally. It remains to be seen whether this market can hold these "artifical" highs or whether it will reset itself. Nothing promising for tomorrow.
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5

Got filled long on a very weak breakout today, definitely not the way I like to see the market find our orders. The problem with trading a market so soon after it stalls is that it might continue to channel rather than breakout. Hopefully cocoa will regain itself and head higher tomorrow.
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=36 HI=41 LO=34 CL=34 1/2

Wheat ranged high enough to find our stops today to take us out of the trade. I felt pretty good about selling the market earlier in the week; however now it looks like prices are waiting for the Planting Report out Thursday. Nothing here tomorrow.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=60 HI=85 LO=38 CL=65

Got a higher session today as I hoped; however it's a little too high, plus the opening gap and weak close don't look too promising for tomorrow. Might wait until we're a little closer to 8356 before trying again.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=1.5 HI=2 LO=0 CL=8.2

Got the bounce off support we were looking for today. Actually prices closed reasonably strong, so we could look at buying the market above tomorrow's high...if it wasn't a countertrend trade that is.

If you do decide to give it a go, you'll probably want to be out around the 719 resistance in case prices stall.
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=685 HI=695 LO=.675 CL=685

Another small, indecisive day for the ED...but we're getting warmer. RSI is heading up a bit and while I doubt we'll see a substantial move I might look at selling if we see rates challenge resistance tomorrow.
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10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
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SMK5

Steered clear of bean meal today as prices traded within yesterday's range. Might run the same trade again tomorrow; however it is getting riskier doing so just before report day on Thursday.

*SELL May Bean Meal at 184.9
*Stop 186.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 176.6
*Approximate Profit Potential: $830 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*BUY May Bean Meal at 189.3
*Stop 186.9
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 198.9
*Approximate Profit Potential: $960 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH