Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday 3/23/05

==================================================
Erich's Update for Wednesday, March 23, 2005
==================================================
Subscribers got these on Tuesday evening, Test Drivers get theirs after the fact. To sign up and get yours fresh and delicious, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
==================================================
1: MAY CORN
==================================================
CK5 O=4 HI=6 1/4 LO=3 3/4 CL=4

Corn prices reinforced support at the 213 area today and I'd like to short the market from here; however there isn't enough profit potential before the 205 line to make it worthwhile right now.

I'm hoping we'll see a bit of a pullback/bounce tomorrow which might get us in a better position to sell. Remember too that this is a short week, so unless traders have a good reason to buy/sell they might just stand aside. ==================================================
2: MAY COTTON
==================================================
CTK5 O=25 HI=70 LO=25 CL=38

Cotton rallied today as we expected. Now that the market is trading a little higher it will make it easier to sell it from a better price. Keep an eye on your RSI indicator, once we get closer to a test point we'll jump all over selling the market.
==================================================
3: MAY BEAN OIL
==================================================
BOK5 O=75 HI=76 Lo=53 CL=58

Very tiny range for bean oil today...which is a little unusual for a bean related market. If you wanted to adjust your trade a bit you could bring your exit stops above today's high to protect a little more profit, or leave them where they are for now.

Hoping to see prices continue lower tomorrow; however a bounce would not be out of the question and should be viewed as another selling opportunity in the making. First profit target remains support at 2227.
==================================================
4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
==================================================
LCJ5 O=.65 HI=.70 LO=.15 CL=.63

Cattle stalled today as prices didn't break yesterday's support. Support and resistance did as they were supposed to and kept us out of a potentially bad trade.

Still favouring the market to the downside for tomorrow so I'll run with the same trade as before. If we see a higher session we might have to re-evaluate, but RSI is at a testpoint so a bounce is likely.

*SELL April Live Cattle at 8707
*Stop 8750
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8540
*Approximate Profit Potential: $660 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
5: MAY COCOA
==================================================
CCK5 O=23 HI=48 LO=23 CL=31

A little more reinforcement of the 1720 support line in cocoa today. I might be a little too demanding on this one but I'm going to look for prices to recover a bit of yesterday's move before looking to sell again.

I have to admit that if this wasn't a short week I'd be all over selling below the 1720 support tomorrow, but since it is a short week I'm not sure what is in store for this market tomorrow.
==================================================
6: MAY WHEAT
==================================================
WK5 O=44 HI=48 LO=42 CL=44 1/2

Saw a slight hesitation in wheat today as prices "felt" support at 340-ish. Wheat is showing us the same opportunity as corn; however we have greater profit potential shorting this market from current levels.

*SELL May Wehat at 339 3/4
*Stop 345 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 312 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1350 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
==================================================
CDM5 O=10 HI=53 LO=75 CL=84

The CD rebounded higher today, as we thought it might, and continued to honour the resistance at 8356. This means that we can run with the weekend trade again tomorrow.

*BUY June Canadian Dollar at 8357
*Stop 8339
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 8444
*Approximate Potential Profit: $870 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
8: MAY SILVER
==================================================
SIK5 O=8.5 HI=0 LO=2 CL=7

I'm not on speaking terms with silver this week. I'm just a little annoyed by the delayed move...this is what we were looking for from the market last week!

We're starting to hit some congestion, so we could see a reaction and another chance at this market, but I doubt we'll get a trade before the Easter holiday.
==================================================
9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
==================================================
EDZ5 O=.845 HI=.915 LO=.695 CL=.735

Easily sold the ED today as prices broke support in a big way. Move exit stops to breakeven if you choose, or keep them a little shy of the 95.84 support. The initial trade had only $100 per contract at risk, so if you're comfortable with that, you could leave stops as is for one more session before tightening them up.
==================================================
10: WILD CARD - MAY BEAN MEAL
==================================================
SMK5 O=8 HI=0 LO=7 CL=7.2

Unusually small day for Bean Meal today as prices retested support at our first profit taking target. If you're still short this market you might want to bring stops in above the high as a bounce might be in the making for tomorrow. Nothing new at this time.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-866-658-7815 [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at Admin@OptimusFutures.com
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, March 23, 2005
========================================================
1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDM5 O=0-23 HI=1-10 LO=9-19 CL=9-24

I tried a couple of trades before shutting down for the F ED announcement. Neither worked very well. I bought 1 at -03 and was stopped at B/E after rolling there when we touched -06. I then tried the other way selling one at -29 and getting stopped out at -31 losing 2 ticks. By then it was appearent we were all holding our breath in anticipation of the FED. I closed up shop.

I contemplated doing something in the aftermath ... until I read the FED comments. This was a major policy shift or, at least, the analysts think it was. We now believe the rate increases will come faster and perhaps greater than 25 basis points at a time. Thus we dumped 2 full points very fast.

If you want to know how I can just pass on a $2000 move and go ho hum, just take a look at a 1 minute chart at 13:21. Yikes! Our methods work best when the market is most normal. FED meeting days are any thing BUT. What happens, happens ... but happens without us. Print this paragraph out and put it up on the wall somewhere nearby.

Tomorrow we must be very cautious. The market may give up some more or it could bounce back retracing significant portions of the move down. Make sure the market has given us a clear green light before atempting anything either way. It will not be the end of the world if we do nothing tomorrow ... it could be the end of our account if we do something too early or in haste.

The close at 109-24 has us watching 109-16 or 110-00 for likley plays. Ease into it, gang.
========================================================
2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDM5 O=.500 HI=.515 LO=.450 CL=.460

I took my exit at 96.450. Thank you. Out with $212. We'll look for a bounce back above .500 before doing anything further.
========================================================
3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDM5 O=10 HI=53 LO=75 CL=84

A nice gap up but our numbers right back in play. I sold one at 8342; I'm out at 8283 for $590. Tomorrow we'll look at the lower echelon of TT numbers.
========================================================
4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTM5 O=2.60 HI=0.20 LO=8.60 CL=8.90

I bought 622.40 with the first peak thru the trading window. I bailed at 628.80 for $640. I view that as a home run of sorts ... well, on a Williamsport diamond. For those of for whom that might be a reference a little too obscure ... Williamsport is the home of the Little League World Series ... they play with 200 foot fences. I checked out as the FED announce was within an hour. All the same TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
5: JUNE $5 DOW
========================================================
EYMM5 O=577 HI=634 LO=464 CL=488

Nothing for us today. We got down to the 10400-10500 level I casually referred to in TT.

Only trade I have interest in for tomorrow would be a buy as it breaks above 10510. The stop is 10492. The goal is 10640 and we'll start squeezing it above 10630. I'd reverse there if it shows failure. If I'm out on the squeeze, I'll be eyeing a re-entry on a move above 10660.

========================================================
6: APRIL GOLD
========================================================
GCJ5 O=1.00 HI=2.80 LO=0.80 CL=1.60

I bought 431.60 bailed at 432.60 ... pretty evident it wasn't going any where and the FED was up. Out with a yard. $10 channel for tomorrow.
========================================================
7: MAY COTTON
========================================================
CTK5 O=.25 HI=.70 LO=.25 CL=.38

I missed the first opportunity to buy the 50.50 break ... no orange candle ... let's see how many of you get that one:) I bought the second break above 50.50 at .55. End of the long run, 51.50 tight roll sound familiar? Out at 51.50. I acually thought I was entitled to a little higher fill. Yeah right, Tom, that'll happen in Cotton. 95 points, $475.

51.50 was Ok for a roll point but lacks sufficient clout to be an entry. Much as I'd love to sell a retest of it, I won't. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
8: MAY COCOA
========================================================
COK5 O=25 HI=48 LO=23 CL=31

I bought one at 1727 with a stop at 1717. I rolled to B/E at 1735 and was stopped out at 1742 for $150.

I'm still on 1720 for tomorrow where we will buy a retest there that fails to go lower or we'll sell a break below 1720. The stop for the buy is 1713 and we'll get to B/E at 1727. The target for the buy is 1770-75. Stop on the sell is 1723 with B/E coming at 1710 and the target is 1660.
========================================================
9: MAY CORN
========================================================
CK5 O=2.14 HI=2.16 1/4 LO=2.13 3/4 CL=2.14

A bit of a rebound and then more weakness. It held the .14 level throughout the day which was a good sign for the bulls.

2.13/.14 is huge support. I will sell a break below 2.13 and I will buy a break above 2.14 1/4. Very short stops ... penny and a half at most. We are still scalpers so don't be hesitant about taking small profits and waiting for additional opportunities
========================================================
10: MAY WHEAT
========================================================
WK5 O=3.44 HI=3.48 LO=3.42 CL=3.44 1/2

Pretty lackluster day ... nothing for us. Play the same numbers from yesterday's guidance.