Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Wednesday, March 16, 2005
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Erich's Update for Wednesday, March 16, 2005
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"It's not that I'm so smart, it's just that I stay with problems longer." - Albert Einstein ==================================================
1: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=5 HI=31 LO=3 1/4 C=8 1/2
Corn took off like a shot today. I wasn't expecting prices to recover as quickly as they did. On the lookout for the next hesitation so we can try to buy in again.
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2: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=40 HI=70 LO=50 CL=63
Cotton did continue to trade higher today, but just barely. I'm very tempted to buy this market higher especially based on the strong trend; however we're contending with some substantial resistance at 5380 followed closely by resistance at 5500.
Combine this with the seasonal weakness we normally see at this time of the year and I'm stuck sitting on my hands.
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3: MAY BEAN OIL
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BOK5 O=10 HI=75 LO=93 CL=23
Bean Oil chopped around a bit today in spite of the parent bean contract rallying substantially higher. In spite of the new highs, this market is a little too top heavy for my liking. We need to see some profit taking and/or a pullback before we can comfortably re-enter.
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4: ARPIL LIVE CATTLE
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LCJ5 O=25 HI=95 LO=25 CL=75
I can't believe that cattle rallied again today. Boy this market sure is strong. I would have thought that with all the factors influencing this market right now the bulls would have packed up and gone home...but that's obviously not the case.
While we're trading high enough to get a nose bleed, I might buy this market if it continues higher tomorrow. It's not that we've got such a great entry, but we've got pretty decent support to base our exit on. Either way it could be a little on the risky side.
*BUY April Live Cattle at 9012
*Stop 8967
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 9150
*Approximate Profit Potential: $550 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MAY COCOA
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CCK5 O=92 HI=95 LO=73 CL=85
Cocoa stubbled a bit today as prices were unable to exceed yesterday's highs, or lows for that matter. The market certainly is indecisive and it's at an RSI test point as well. We should see something happen here tomorrow so we'll continue to cover both sides of the trade.
*BUY May Cocoa at 1806
*Stop 1789
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $170 per contract
*Profit Target: 1864
*Approximate Profit Potential: $580 per contract
*RRR: 3:1 *Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
-OR-
*SELL May Cocoa at 1763
*Stop 1777
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $140 per contract
*Profit Target: 1706
*Approximate Profit Potential: $570 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: MAY WHEAT
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WK5 O=60 HI=69 LO=59 CL=68
Wheat rallied in symapthy for soybeans today and broke through our first profit target at 365 1/4. Like the other grain markets, we're getting to some pretty serious resistance and as such I'd like to see a bit of a reversal before trying to buy in again.
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7: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=17 HI=56 LO=80 CL=98
A near identical day to yesterday, but with a slightly larger range. This morning's opening gap put my trade on hold for opening range, after which the market was already trading above my entry so I pulled the trade. Doesn't look like the CD knew what it wanted to do so it's just as well we didn't get in.
Standing aside for tomorrow as well.
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8: MAY SILVER
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SIK5 O=1 HI=3 LO=0 C=0.7
Horrible looking range in silver today, the only good news is our order was far enough away that we didn't get filled. The indecisive closing price means the market doesn't know what it wants to do, and in absence of that, we'll stick to the trend.
*BUY May Silver at 757.5
*Stop 753.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 770
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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9: DECEMBER EURODOLLAR
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EDZ5 O=.865 HI=.875 LO=.825 CL=.83
The ED rallied just high enough to tag our exit stops today taking us out of the trade with $240 profit per contract. Still looking for the market to head lower in the future, but we'll stand aside for a bit as I think an adjustment might be pending.
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10: WILD CARD
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No wild card market - yet.
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, March 16, 2005
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1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDM5 O=1-03 HI=1-11 LO=0-11 CL=0-17
We bought 111-03 and were stopped at at B/E. We bought 111-02; stopped out at -07 for +5. Nother -03 buy and a B/E stop. Sold 110-29 and exited at -17 for +12. I stopped trading at that point as we were withing the final hour. Gone to the barn with 17, $531.
The close at 110-17 sets up a break of 110-16 sell or a break above buy. We will also account for the possibilty of an open above -17 that sets us on 111-00.
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2: JUNE EURODOLLAR
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EDM5 O=.510 HI=.515 LO=.485 CL=.49
We rolled the stop to B/E today. Had the high been less than .515 I would have brought it there. If you're not short with us you might consider looking at sellingone on a pullback above 96.510 and a stop at .535 matching our B/E stop.
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3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDM5 O=17 HI=56 LO=80 CL=98
I sold 8338 with an 8343 stop. I rolled to B/E as 30 broke. I bailed at 8309 for $290. Sold 8323 bailed ay 8307 for $160. Sold 8325 bailed at 8294 for $310. Total take a nice $760. I think we got about as much from that garbage as anyone could have hoped for. I quit right there. Armed as we were with all the numbers they wanted to bang on this was like hitting lobs to Agassi's forehand ... truly fun.
All the same TT numbers plus 8300 even for tomorrow. You can almost bet money they won't let us do that again.
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4: JUNE MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTM5 O=3.20 HI=7.70 LO=7.60 CL=9.10
The labeling was incorrect yesterday. It said March but the numbers were all June as they were intended. I apologize for any confusion this might have caused. Would have been nice to have had 637 in our mix ... we didn't. I sold one at 630 on the button. Out at 629 for $100. Sold 629.90. Took 627.90 on this one for $200.
Tomorrow we retain the 640 trades from TT and yesterday's update. We also will sell a break below 629. We'll buy any failed retest below 630. We will also buy a break above 637.80 and sell any failed retest of 636.00. The array expands as more structure exposes itself. Stops off any of these trades should be less than $100 and closer to $65-70. Free it up a little bit as you begin the accumulate any profit. You MUST use periodic RRR if you hope to make this work. You might benefit from a reread of this past weekend's Ed Page.
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5: JUNE $5 DOW
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EYMM5 O=843 HI=870 LO=772 CL=779
When our trading window opened we were well above 10800 ... 10850's to be semi-precise. I sold 10796 and was stopped out at 10818 for a loss of $110. I then sold 10798 and was stopped out at 10781 getting back $85 of the $110 we lost. Done for the day.
For tomorrow we'll again play the TT numbers. We also expand our horizons here a tad also. A retest and failure at 10775 is a buy as it comes back above 10777. Sell a break of 10772
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6: APRIL GOLD
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GCJ5 O=3.60 HI=4.90 LO=0.30 CL=1.40
I bought 441.60 and was stopped out at break even ... TWICE ... karumba. $10 channel for tomorrow.
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7: MAY COTTON
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CTK5 O=.15 HI=.20 LO=.80 CL=.11
If it drops lower and comes back to retest 53.60-65 and then fails, I'll sell it with a stop at 53.67. I will not buy the break above the double top. You must see the drop and a retest before doing this one.
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8: MAY COCOA
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COK5 O=92 HI=95 LO=73 CL=85
I sold 1790, stopped at 1785 on an 81 stop. $50, big whoop. What I wrote yesterday in the update? Do that again.
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9: MAY CORN
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CK5 O=2.25 HI=2.31 LO=2.23 1/4 CL=2.28
I bought 2.26 1/4 today. I am out at 2.29 1/2 for 3 1/4 cents, $162. Tomorrow's plays are the TT numbers again ... 2.25/.26.
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10: MARCH WHEAT
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WK5 O=3.60 HI=3.69 LO=3.59 CL=3.68
My hands are tied at the moment ... got no structure to deal with.
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