Tom's Trades for Thursday, January 27th 2005

=========================================
"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, January 27, 2005
=========================================
=========================================
1: MARCH 30 YEAR T BOND
=========================================
USDH5 O 3-28 HI 4-07 LO 3-26 CL 3-30

No trades today on a modest range. For the second consecutive day we closed at 113-30. We'll then look at sells at the same level ... 114-00 and 113-16

=========================================
2: MARCH EURODOLLAR
=========================================
EDH5 O—.030 HI—.035 LO—.025 CL—.030

We continue short from 97.040. The trade can still be entered on a retest and susequent failure at .040. We inched a teeny bit lower today. The longer we go without some resolution does not work in our best interests. I will probably dump this trade rather than hold it over the weekend. There is just too much uncertainty in the financials to run the risk of weekend holds at the moment.

=========================================
3: MARCH CANADIAN DOLLAR
=========================================
CDH5 O-77 HI-45 LO-77 CL-03

I bought 1 at 8105. The failure up above 8125 was pretty dramatic ... I bailed. Out at 8121 for $160.

I'll play the TT numbers and those from yesterday for tomorrow. Be careful tomorrow. We ended the day at 8103. Get a good look before you leap.

=========================================
4: FEBRUARY GOLD
=========================================
GCG5 O-3.60 HI-7.80 LO-3.50 CL-6.90

I bought 424.20. I didn't like the look of the failure at 426.80 so I elected to bail with the the proverbial bird in the hand ... well not 1 bird but 230 of 'em. Out at 426.50

Same numbers tomorrow ... 424 and $10 channel.

=========================================
5: MARCH COTTON
=========================================
CTH5 O-.40 HI-.80 LO-.75 CL-.78

Nasty little move got me. I sold 46.75 on what looked like a picture perfect set up. I was stopped out at 46.90 on a 46.87 stop. We dropped $75. You have to love that ... a $75 loss on a trade where I was completely wrong.

I'll use the TT numbers again tomorrow. I will, again, also sell a retest in the 46.80-47.00 area that fails.

=========================================
6: MARCH COCOA
=========================================
COH5 O-20 HI-36 LO-18 CL-27

I bought 1 at 1523 with a stop at 1513 ... just below the former double top. If it broke 15 after yesterday's action and this morning's open I wanted to be gone, gone, gone. Although I had a target of 1580-1600 from TT it was pretty apparent we needed to start protecting this trade from 1555 on up. When we failed at 1574 I brought the stop to 1567 and was stopped out at 65. We picked up $420

We ended the day at 1575. I will buy either a break above 1580 or a retest of 1560 that fails and starts back higher. 1553 is the stop on the retest and 1573 on the break above 1580. I don't think we can do better than 1650 right now. I'll get real tight as we approach that level.

=========================================
7: MARCH CORN
=========================================
CH5 O=1.97 1/4 HI=1.99 3/4 LO=1.97 CL=1.99

We started the day long from 1.98 1/2. I rolled the stop to 1.99 3/4 when we broke above 2.00 and got stopped there for $62.

Tomorrow I'll buy a retest of 1.97 that fails and heads higher or I will buy a break above 2.02 1/2.

Remember, we're scalping here. If you think you are going to buy a bottom here and catch the beginning of a big move north more than likely you will get whipsawed for 10-20 cents or more long before the great break out occurs. Play it tight, take small profits and you'll pick up 10-20 cents instead of dumping that amount.

=========================================
8: MARCH WHEAT
=========================================
WH5 O=2.98 HI=2.99 3/4 LO=2.95 CL=2.95 1/4

It leapfrogged us ... nothing done. Big failure a little later.

I will buy anything under 2.96 tomorrow with a tight 2.94 3/4 stop. Same dynamic as Corn is at work here. Be a scalper or risk the consequences.

=========================================
=========================================
Market Alert is a publication of Traders Helping Traders.net
http://www.tradershelpingtraders.net
erich@tradershelpingtraders.net

Copyright (c) 2005 Traders Helping Traders.net.
=========================================