Thursday, August 03, 2006

THT Trade Update for Wednesday, July 26, 2006

==================================================
Market Update for Wednesday, July 26, 2006
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
September Australian Dollar ADU6
Oh-oh. Big gap 'n fade day in the Aussie today doesn't look good for our short (if you're still short) tomorrow. Leave stops below today's low and keep your fingers crossed!

September British Pound BPU6
I'd like to see the Pound dip further still and test the 183. 35 support zone. We'll have to see what the market gives us tomorrow.

September Canadian Dollar CDU6
I would expect the CD to rally a little more and test the 8825 resistance tomorrow. I don't know if that will be enough to turn this market lower again but we might consider a sell from here if we get the test.

September EuroFX ECU6
We got gapped two days in a row here, but we definitely had the right idea. Too bad, this one was a money maker!

September Japanese Yen JYU6
We got filled in our Yen short trade today. If you can stand the risk leave the stops where they are for one more day; otherwise you could bring them in above today's open, but I'd resist going much tighter than that.

September Mexican Peso MPU6
Nothing's really changed for the Peso setup and we can continue with the trade as is.

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 91.925
*Exit Stop: 91.250
*Approximate Risk: $337 per contract
*Profit Target: 93.975
*Potential Profit: $1025 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Swiss Franc SFU6
And of course we're still watching with the Swiss Franc trade as well. Got the direction bang on, but the gaps are brutal.

September US Dollar Index DXU6
I was humming and hawing about buying the USD and I guess I should have as we got a very nice move higher today. Next time.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
September Unleaded Gas HUU6
Looks like Unleaded might give us that RSI test after all. On hold for tomorrow, but I'd be looking for support to show itself.

September Heating Oil HOU6
Whew! I think this is the closest an energy market has ever come to whipsawing us in a channel trade! What a day! Running the same trade tomorrow, but RSI broke to the downside so that's my preference. A very HIGH risk trade no matter how you slice it.

*BUY September Heating Oil at 206.05
*Exit Stop: 203.15
*Approximate Risk: $1218 per contract
*Profit Target: 215.95
*Potential Profit: $4158 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL September Heating Oil at 199.40
*Exit Stop: 202.10
*Approximate Risk: $1134 per contract
*Profit Target: 190.55
*Potential Profit: $3717 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Crude Oil CLU6
That was a close to a whipsawed trade as I dare get! Crude made the daily highs during the night session, but did manage a poke higher shortly after the open. Fortunately for us the resistance held and our order wasn't filled. Taking the day off tomorrow.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
March (07) Eurodollar EDH7
I thought about shorting the ED tomorrow but it's another day where the market diverged and traded lower while RSI flipped higher.

September mini-DOW YMU6
The Dow is testing scattered but strong resistance in the 11175 area today. I think this will turn the market tomorrow; however I'll wait for the reaction before getting too anxious to sell.

September mini-NAS NQU6
The NAS also has its hands full at the 1500 line. Let's wait and see if it turns.

September mini-S&P ESU6
The S&P was the most aggressive of the three. The resistance here is much looser, but based on the other two we might get a reaction here as well.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
September Corn CU6
It's not the best setup because of the strong support at 227, which is likely to give us problems on the way down; however the market is in pullback mode and the trend is picking up so we could look at shorting nearby support.

*SELL September Corn at 237 1/4
*Exit Stop: 242 1/4
*Approximate Risk: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 221 3/4
*Potential Profit: $775 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

September Oats OU6
Oats are still too lost to consider trading. We'll wait until they pick a direction and then go with them.

November Rice RRX6
We got the RSI hook today which looks very promising for our buy position tomorrow. The trend isn't as strong as I would have liked, but at least DMI is looking bullish.

*BUY November Rough Rice at 975.5
*Exit Stop: 965.5
*Approximate Risk: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1034.5
*Potential Profit: $1180 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

September Soybean Meal SMU6
No surprise we got an RSI test today as prices found resistance at 172. Coincidence? I think not! I'll set up to short on a break through the 168 support. You could try to sell today's low and cover above the high, but why be greedy?

*SELL September Soy Meal at 168.3
*Exit Stop: 172.3
*Approximate Risk: $400 per contract
*Profit Target: 155.3
*Potential Profit: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

September Soybean Oil BOU6
Still holding out for the RSI testpoint. If we get another day like today we should get it no problem.

September Soybean SU6
The Big Bean market actually looks to be the most aggressive of the three. I'll stand aside for now since we're in a downtrend and should be selling, not buying.

July Wheat WN6
Wheat continued to chop around a bit. We got a move lower today, but I have to admit that the weak trend is giving me pause. I don't want to be in a choppy market if I can help it.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
August Feeder Cattle FCQ6
The 112.75 support line held and as promised I'll sell my brains out tomorrow. The only "problem" is that the trend has lost all momentum, so I hope we don't see a half-hearted stab lower. I'll place my entry a touch further to stay safe.

*SELL August Feeder Cattle at 112.62
*Exit Stop: 113.45
*Approximate Risk: $412 per contract
*Profit Target: 109.05
*Potential Profit: $1787 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

August Live Cattle LCQ6
Same idea for Live Cattle. You could sell the October contract if you choose, but August isn't too bad yet. I'm looking to short below yesterday's low as this is where the market has shown us support by trading higher today. Besides, it's also where the trendline's at.

*SELL August Live Cattle at 8177
*Exit Stop: 8282
*Approximate Risk: $420 per contract
*Profit Target: 7852
*Potential Profit: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

August Lean Hogs LHQ6
Don't you hate that? We had the market short then it cleared us out with a big range only to fall off again.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
September Copper HGU6
Too bad our limit trade didn't work out because we nailed this one! Copper found our first profit target today. Still on hold for tomorrow.

August Gold GCQ6
A bullish reaction; however the market is still technically in a downtrend so I'm sitting on my hands.

September Silver SIU6
Got the rally we were looking for but we also got RSI divergence as it dipped. Better wait and see.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
September Cocoa CCU6
I knew it was too good to be true. Cocoa's up to something, but I can't put my finger on it - yet.

September Coffee KCU6
Coffee showed us some support today. I "could" sell the support tomorrow, but I'll wait.

December Cotton CTZ6
A reaction off the 62% line... but can we trust it? I don't know yet.

September OJ OJU6
OJ continued higher today which still has me a touch baffled. RSI is dipping so that's not a good thing, but the trend is in tack so it might not affect it that much. The contract highs look like formidable resistance, but this is OJ so anything can happen.

October Sugar SBV6
And sugar there goes sugar lower after doing the whipsaw dance yesterday. At least it only got us at breakeven.

Tom's Trades

========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday July 25, 2006
========================================================
1: SEPT 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
We began with a buy at 107-21. We went on a nice smooth run to 107-31 and pulled up in almost predictable per the book fashion. I exited at -29 for $250. I then sold -27 and exited at -22 for $156. I tried to buy -21/-22 but didn't succeed. Done for the day.

The settle at 107-23 has watching 107-16 and 108-00 for tomorrow.
========================================================
2: DECEMBER 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
I bought 94.455 and hung on to it into tomorrow. The stop is at 94.445. We closed at .470. If we don't see some strength early tomorrow I will move the stop to break even in sort of a mini - squeeze.

If you didn't choose to play today you can pick up the TT numbers for an attempt tomorrow.
========================================================
3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
A very frustrating day here. The trading window opened with the CD edging up and stalling at 8794. Oh boy, I thought, get yer game face on; here comes the sell at 8780. It went from 86 to 63 in less than a minute. Great action off a strong S&R number and zippity do dah to show for it. We climbed back from 8742 to 8780. I passed on the chance to sell it or buy it as the number came at the end of a long run and late in the RTH session.

TT numbers again tomorrow.
========================================================
4: SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
We hung out all day just above the 8060/50 channel we pointed out in TT. Nothing for us here today.

I'll stay on the TT numbers again tomorrow. Add 8050 to the mix both ways. 8075 is first focus.
========================================================
5: SEPTEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
This was one of the very few days when I was watching with a complete directional bias ... up. 675 was just too, too to not. I had to wait a bit all the while it was climbing. The window opened and I immediately bought 680.40 and exited at 684.80 on an OB play when it failed at 685.50. We picked up $440. I then bought 683.50 and exited at 684.70 on an ob for $120. I sold 684.50 and exited at 683.60 for $90. I missed the ensuing 683 break out higher. I caught back up with it at 685.50 with a buy and exited at 690.90 for $440 again. I took a little break until about 12:10 CDT and came back to buy 688.50 and exit at 689.80 for $130. Next I bought 688.60 and caught another nice move exiting at 695.60 right at the end of the day for $700.

We'll be there tomorrow with all the numbers.
========================================================
5: SEPTEMBER MINI $5 DOW
========================================================
The wheels were already in motion when the RTH session in the big DOW opened. I bought 10955, put in a stop at 10927 and just let it go. I put in an alarm at 11050. When it went off I came back for a look see. By then we were climbing thru 11060. I jumped ship at 11060 after the big failure at 11075 for $525. I bought 11055 and exited at 11095 for another $200.

All the numbers from TT weekend edition.
========================================================
7: AUGUST GOLD
========================================================
They dealt us the dreaded gap lower leaving us nothing to do. I finally bought 611.50 and exited at 611 losing $50. We got down a slow as 602.50 but I couldn't get a fill under 602 so I passed. By the time we got a useable confirmation it was too late in the day and the bounce was too rapid to get in below 612 so I passed again. There was a lot of range today and I was, frankly, a bit miffed at our result.

$10 channels for tomorrow.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
Nothing for us as the play of the day was a buy off the break lower form 53.50 or the buy on the failure to press lower at 53.00. There was no way to get a fill off the 53.50 break and the buy was not allowed under my rules. Goose eggs today.

TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
9: SEPTEMBER COCOA
========================================================
We watched. I'll buy a break above 1542 tomorrow and that's it.
========================================================
10: SEPTEMBER CORN
========================================================
Nothing here until it was too late in the day.
TT numbers again tomorrow.
========================================================
11: SEPTEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
I sold 4.04 ½ to start my day in Grains. I exited at 4.02 for $125. I then bought 4.00 ½ and exited at 4.04 ½ for $200. I then sold 4.04 ½ and exited at 4.01 for $175.

It's TT again tomorrow.

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday 7/25/06

==================================================
Traders Helping Traders Market Update
for Tuesday, July 25, 2006
==================================================
http://www.supportandresistance.com
"Fall seven times, stand up eight." ~Japanese Proverb
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
September Australian Dollar ADU6
The AD continued to flounder today. If you brought stops to breakeven then you're currently flat, if you had them below Friday's low then you're still short. It's a tough call, but if you're going to give it a run leave the stops where they are.

September British Pound BPU6
The Pound took a breather today. If we see more of the same tomorrow I'll look for support and another chance to buy.

September Canadian Dollar CDU6
Of course the CD would drop off today after stopping us out a few days ago. This move also casts some doubt over the AD position as these markets often move together.

September EuroFX ECU6
Right idea but the opening gap voided our short position. Still on the lookout for another chance.

*SELL September EuroFX at 126.49
*Exit Stop: 127.03
*Approximate Risk: $675 per contract
*Profit Target: 123.31
*Potential Profit: $3975 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Japanese Yen JYU6
The Yen also fell off today and put the market back near the support lines we were watching last week. The thing I like about the Yen is that the trend is still pretty solid to the downside, so I feel a little better about selling it.

*SELL September Japanese Yen at 8607
*Exit Stop: 8653
*Approximate Risk: $575 per contract
*Profit Target: 8327
*Potential Profit: $3500 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Mexican Peso MPU6
It might be a little early to be buying the Peso again, but the market did show us support today as rates bounced near the 91000 line. I'll look to buy a breakout higher tomorrow. I wanted to buy above 92000, but I couldn't get the numbers to jive, so we're going to be a little more aggressive.

*BUY September Mexican Peso at 91.925
*Exit Stop: 91.250
*Approximate Risk: $337 per contract
*Profit Target: 93.975
*Potential Profit: $1025 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Swiss Franc SFU6
Right idea in the Swiss Franc as well, but the market gapped our entry in a big way voiding our short trade. Disappointing to say the least.

September US Dollar Index DXU6
The USD moved higher on a gap today. I "should' be buying tomorrow, but I'm going to hold.

==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================

September Unleaded Gas HUU6
I was hoping that Unleaded would get closer to the RSI testpoint before the next rally, but after today's session it looks like it doesn't want to wait.

September Heating Oil HOU6
A small hook off the RSI testpoint is making me cautiously bullish in Heating Oil tomorrow. I'm going to buy above the 205.75 - 205.80 resistance line and cover the trade below intermediate support around 203.20. On the downside I'm shorting today's low and covering around the 202.00 resistance.

It's too bad this market is so expensive. I would have liked to have "loosened" things up a bit.

*BUY September Heating Oil at 206.05
*Exit Stop: 203.15
*Approximate Risk: $1218 per contract
*Profit Target: 215.95
*Potential Profit: $4158 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SELL September Heating Oil at 199.40
*Exit Stop: 202.10
*Approximate Risk: $1134 per contract
*Profit Target: 190.55
*Potential Profit: $3717 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

September Crude Oil CLU6
Crude is still at the RSI test and we got a bit of a hook today so we'll run the weekend buy order again tomorrow.

*BUY September Crude Oil at 7555
*Exit Stop: 7495
*Approximate Risk: $600 per contract
*Profit Target: 7945
*Potential Profit: $3900 per contract
*RRR: 6 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================

March (07) Eurodollar EDH7
The ED came down and RSI went up. Think I'll leave it alone tomorrow, but I'd still like to short it.

September mini-DOW YMU6
What a fickle market. If you brought stops to breakeven it didn't hurt too badly today; otherwise you're out with a loss. Nothing here tomorrow.

September mini-NAS NQU6
The NAS had the greatest downward momentum and now we see a rally off support! Nothing here tomorrow either.

September mini-S&P ESU6
Yuck! What an ugly day in the S&P. I hate the chop in these markets. It seems they take a long time to setup and then "poof!" it's over and back to wait-mode.

==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================

September Corn CU6
I'll wait one more day for corn to rally a little higher so I can try to sell from a better price. This market is still looking very bearish to me right now.

September Oats OU6
Oats rallied off support as we thought; however the closing price casts a shadow of doubt over the whole bullishness of the market.

November Rice RRX6
We flipped into November this week as this market has the greater volume and open interest, and in a market like Rice every little bit helps!

Prices bounced off the contract highs today reinforcing the resistance that's there. This makes it the ideal place to buy a breakout. The market is at an RSI testpoint, so I guess the timing is right as well.

*BUY November Rough Rice at 975.5
*Exit Stop: 965.5
*Approximate Risk: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1034.5
*Potential Profit: $1180 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

September Soybean Meal SMU6
A week since our fill and today the market takes us out with a measly $280 profit on the gap open. Oh well, I guess it's better than a loss.

September Soybean Oil BOU6
Still nothing in bean oil to get too excited about.

September Soybean SU6
Nor beans.

July Wheat WN6
Wheat is winding up pretty tightly. I think we'll see a big move here this week. I'm going to give it one more day to setup. Hope I don't regret it.

==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================

August Feeder Cattle FCQ6
A miserable way to start the week as Feeders opened gap down stopping us out for a $260 loss per contract. I'm really hoping that we'll see a reaction off the 112.75 support tomorrow. If we get that I'll short my brains out on Wednesday!

August Live Cattle LCQ6
Once again Cattle are painting a different picture as the market bounced off trendline support today. I would expect higher prices here tomorrow.

August Lean Hogs LHQ6
Things were looking so promising for our Hog trade... until today that is when prices rallied stopping us out for a small loss. We'll have to reassess. Nothing for this market tomorrow.

==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================

September Copper HGU6
We knew it was a gamble, and we had the right idea; unfortunately the market reached just a little too low for us to hold on to our limit position.

August Gold GCQ6
Gold also fudged support today; however it looks like we're going to see a rally here tomorrow.

September Silver SIU6
Silver was the most cooperative of the bunch as prices found support at 1068 today. Expecting a rally here tomorrow.

==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================

September Cocoa CCU6
I didn't believe Cocoa had enough left in it to poke through support without refreshing itself first. This might prove to be a false break though. We'll know tomorrow.

September Coffee KCU6
If you followed my lead you would have been stopped out in coffee today as we were unable to ride out the range. If you did as I "should" have and left the stop back, then you would have done fine and can bring the trade at least to breakeven for tomorrow.

December Cotton CTZ6
Cotton continues to charge higher. Still nothing to do but wait.

September OJ OJU6
I have to admit that I didn't see this one coming at all, although there is weekly support which likely held the market up. Good ole OJ. Rally outta nowhere. Nothing here right now.

October Sugar SBV6
And sugar is up to its old tricks again as prices rallied stopping us out at breakeven today. Nothing new here tomorrow.