Wednesday, April 19, 2006

Erich's Updates for Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Market Update for Tuesday, April 18, 2006
Hot off the commodity presses to you!

"How can a society that exists on instant mashed potatoes, packaged cake mixes, frozen dinners, and instant cameras teach patience to its young?" ~Paul Sweeney


1: CURRENCIES

June Australian Dollar ADM6
Did you park your Aussie buy order above the resistance from last week? Naw, me neither. Too bad though as the market would have made a nice fill of it today. Definitely something to keep in mind for the next time, especially for Monday's.

June British Pound BPM6
Needless to say I'm grinning from ear to year after this morning's opening gap in the BP. It's a good thing it went our way 'cus it would've been awfully expensive otherwise. Bring stops in below today's low for tomorrow. If we get stopped we'll try to re-enter, but I don't feel like giving up too much profit.

June Canadian Dollar CDM6
I still like the CD short, but you can't argue with the resistance numbers we're playing at right now. A break through the 8760 area would be a buy. Let's hope it's a sustained breakout!

*BUY June Canadian Dollar at 8777
*Exit Stop: 8747
*Approximate Risk: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8877
*Potential Profit: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

June EuroFX ECM6
A major disappointment that we weren't able to hang on to our EC trade from last week as the market bolted higher today. Not to worry, we'll have another chance.

June Japanese Yen JYM6
The Yen continued to hold support and rallied higher today. Pull the sell trade for tomorrow.

June Mexican Peso MPM6
The Peso reversed on us stopping us out for $150 loss today. I'm standing aside for tomorrow, but we might get another chance to sell in a couple of days.

June Swiss Franc SFM6
Huge day for the Swiss Franc today. Bring those exit stops under today's low to protect profit for tomorrow.

June US Dollar Index DXM6
Another disappointing market as we were unable (just barely) to hang on to our short position in the US dollar market. At least we called it perfectly. Nothing new here tomorrow.

2: ENERGIES

June Unleaded Gas HUM6
Unleaded found our first profit target today, that is IF you took the trade from last week, which you probably didn't. Still looking for resistance before we can enter, but it might be a long wait.

June Heating Oil HOM6
No problem getting filled in our Heating Oil trade today as the market took off like a shot from the opening bell. The problem now is how much of our $1500 in profit to protect?

You'll want your stops at least at breakeven for tomorrow if you're going to try to ride this out and tighter otherwise. 201.85 might be a good compromise.

June Crude Oil CLM6
Here you see the disadvantage of buying above secondary resistance vs. buying a first break like we did in Heating Oil - the market barely moved high enough for us to adjust our stops.

In fact the best stop placement is where they are; however you could bring them under 7150 if you want to take a little more risk out of the trade.

3: FINANCIALS/INDICES

December (06) Eurodollar EDZ6
A most unfortunate day in the ED today as rates rallied enough to find our stops and hit us for $100 loss. Nothing here tomorrow, but I still like this market short.

June mini-DOW YMM6
The Dow broke support again today which officially puts this market in a downtrend. I'm holding off tomorrow, but am on the lookout for another sell soon.

June mini-NAS NQM6
Same deal for the NAS. We're in bear country again. Keep a look out!

June mini-S&P ESM6
Sure...a big move in the Dow and the NAS and a piddly little move in the S&P ...isn't it always the way? We're short the S&P today, but just barely as the market dipped low enough through support to find the order and they rally higher. We're hanging on, but I sure hope we a more dramatic move lower tomorrow!


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