Thursday, March 16, 2006

THT Trade Update for Wednesday March 15th 2006

1: CURRENCIES

June Australian Dollar ADM6
Okay, I finally have an idea of what's going on in the
Aussie Dollar. If you draw a line on the reaction highs and
lows (peaks and valleys) you'll see a bit of a channel
formation. How much you wanna bet that the AD is going to
rally to the top of the channel?

June British Pound BPM6
RSI and trendline test today. We should see a bounce or
break tomorrow. The lack of trend is a definite concern, so
I'm standing aside.

June Canadian Dollar CDM6
A moderate RSI and trendline bounce in the CD today. This is
another market where the weak trend is leading to some
choppy sessions. I still think we're going to see a reaction
off 8750.

June EuroFX ECM6
The EC traded quite a bit higher today. I think we might see
more of the same tomorrow, but let's see what happens at the
121.00 area.

June Japanese Yen JYM6
Oh crap. A hold lot of good our stops did us today as the
market opened with a $500 gap against us. Not a good day to
say the least.

June Mexican Peso MPM6
The Peso's got a long way to go before we see the next RSI
test. Nothing new here right now.

June Swiss Franc SFM6
A big day for the Swissy. In hindsight I guess we could have
done the opposite of our US trade here.

June US Dollar Index DXM6
Well that worked out pretty well, didn't it? Maybe I'll be
able to recoup some of those currency losses I incurred this
week.

Exit stops need to go at least to breakeven. There isn't a
lot of intraday stuff here to make them any tighter than
that however, so do so at your own risk.

For all daily positions with entries, exits, risk, profit targets, risk/reward ratios in the following markets, join our trading family by going to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

2: ENERGIES
May Unleaded Gas HUK6
May Heating Oil HOK6
May Crude Oil CLK6

3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
December (06) Eurodollar EDZ6
June mini-DOW YMM6
June mini-NAS NQM6
June mini-S&P ESM6

4: GRAINS
May Corn CK6
May Oats OK6
March Rice RRH6
May Soybean Meal SMK6
May Soybean Oil BOK6
May Soybean SK6
May Wheat WK6

5: MEATS
May Feeder Cattle FCK6
April Live Cattle LCJ6
April Lean Hogs LHJ6

6: METALS
March Copper HGH6
April Gold GCJ6
May Silver SIK6

7: SOFTS
May Cocoa CCK6
May Coffee KCK6
May Cotton CTK6
May OJ OJK6
May Sugar SBK6

Erich and Tom's Updates for Tuesday, March 14th 2006

Position Trading Update for Tuesday, March 14
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com

"Calamity is the test of integrity." - Samuel Richardson
1: CURRENCIES

June Australian Dollar ADM6
Ooops! Might have brought the stop in a little too tight as the market backed up on us today, stopping us out of the trade for $100 loss per contract. I think we've got the right idea, but our timing was off.

June British Pound BPM6
Darn it! The Pound backed up on us as well, but here we got out at breakeven (unless you brought your stops in above 173.00). Nothing here tomorrow.

June Canadian Dollar CDM6
The CD finally gives us a bounce off the trendline support. Expect the market to rally a bit over the next few days; however I think we might see another reversal off 8740.

June EuroFX ECM6
Just when we thought the Euro might have found a trend the market trades higher against the "trend". Nothing here tomorrow either.

June Japanese Yen JYM6
I'm not very encouraged by the small day today and the slight hook in RSI. I'm bringing stops near breakeven, although you could still leave them above 8550 if you wanted.

June Mexican Peso MPM6
Still looking for the Peso to "normalize" a bit. RSI is too much oversold for me to think seriously about selling this market.

June Swiss Franc SFM6
Definitely not the way I wanted to begin my week as the Swissy backed up today, stopping us out with a $250 loss. Like the other markets I think we're on the right side of the trade, but without a stronger trend the chop is killing us.

June US Dollar Index DXM6
And of course the USD was the final nail in the coffin for our currency trades from last week as this market also reversed and stopped us out of our long position. You won't see me doing this very often, but sometimes when a market briefly breaks a strong resistance area (ie. 9050) and then retreats below it, this is a sign that the market will move away from resistance (in this case lower). It is a HIGH risk trade, especially since we still have considerable support at 9000, but what the heck, I'm feeling lucky.

*SELL June US Dollar Index at 8997
*Exit Stop: 9023
*Approximate Risk: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 8921
*Potential Profit: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, March 14, 2006


1: JUNE 30 YEAR T BOND
A stagnant day with only a 10 tick range made trading very tough. I bought 110-04 and was stopped at B/E. I missed probably the best chance at some ticks as I tried to buy -04/-05 and couldn't. Bonds drove up to the daily high at -12. I bought -04 again about 11:00 and again got stopped at B/E. Enough. The close at 110-08 has us eyeballing 110-00 and 110-16 for tomorrow.

2: JUNE 06 EURODOLLAR
Nothing for us. Same numbers tomorrow.


3: JUNE CANADIAN DOLLAR

I began selling 8633 shortly after the open. We made it down to 17 and then turned. I slipped the stop down to 21 and got stopped there for $120. I later sold 33 again and was stopped at 35 losing $20. I next bought 45. I'd intended to roll my stop to B/E as we moved above 50 but it snapped back so quickly I didn't even have the chance. It then started rising again. This time I did make the roll to B/E and they immediately came and got me ... out at B/E. We did make it to 8660 and started slipping sideways.

We'll be on the same numbers for tomorrow.

For all daily positions with entries, exits, risk, profit targets, risk/reward ratios in the following markets, join our trading family by going to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

2: ENERGIES
May Unleaded Gas HUK6
May Heating Oil HOK6
May Crude Oil CLK6

3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
December (06) Eurodollar EDZ6
June mini-DOW YMM6
June mini-NAS NQM6
June mini-S&P ESM6

4: GRAINS
May Corn CK6
May Oats OK6
March Rice RRH6
May Soybean Meal SMK6
May Soybean Oil BOK6
May Soybean SK6
May Wheat WK6

5: MEATS
May Feeder Cattle FCK6
April Live Cattle LCJ6
April Lean Hogs LHJ6

6: METALS
March Copper HGH6
April Gold GCJ6
May Silver SIK6

7: SOFTS
May Cocoa CCK6
May Coffee KCK6
May Cotton CTK6
May OJ OJK6
May Sugar SBK6