Wednesday, March 08, 2006

Traders Helping Traders Daily Update for Tuesday 3/7/06

"The fastest way to get many things done is to do one at a time." - Mozart

1: CURRENCIES

June Australian Dollar ADM6
The AD continued lower today. I still don't have a good feel for what's going on here. There's a chance we could see support off 7370 - 75 tomorrow.

June British Pound BPM6
And with the Pound as well it's tough to know whether this is a new trend, or merely a pullback. We should know more as the week goes on.

June Canadian Dollar CDM6
The CD on the other hand IS in pullback mode. I'd like to see one more day like today before we get interested in buying.

June EuroFX ECM6
Not as big a reaction in the EC as in the Pound and other related currencies. Here too we are directionally challenged.

June Japanese Yen JYM6
Yes we were looking to buy a break of resistance, but just because the marke moved the other way doesn't mean we were wrong. Support and Resistance did what they were supposed to do and kept us out of a potentially bad trade.

June Mexican Peso MPM6
Major decline today, but this market's still too thin.

June Swiss Franc SFM6
Like the EC, the Swiss Franc was more lackluster today. We need to get a clear indication of trend here before we try anything else.

June US Dollar Index DXM6
BIG bounce off the 50% level today. It remains to be seen if it can be sustained tomorrow.

2: ENERGIES

April Unleaded Gas HUJ6
The first sign of resistance, means we could see a resumption of the downtrend tomorrow. Still looking for a low risk trade to get into.

April Heating Oil HOJ6
Same deal with heating oil, but the move wasn't as big.

May Crude Oil CLK6
And Crude.

3: FINANCIALS/INDICES

December (06) Eurodollar EDZ6
The ED declined slightly today, but not enough to get stops to breakeven yet. Hopefully we'll see the market continue lower tomorrow, but in the meantime you could bring stops above 94.880 for tomorrow.

June mini-DOW YMM6
We've got an RSI test today which could translate into a bounce tomorrow. The closest support is not until 10950 so we'll see what happens.

March mini-NAS NQH6
The NAS fell off sharply today breaking the price trendline. Things start to get a little crowded around 1680.00. Holding off right now.

March mini-S&P ESH6
We got filled short near the end of *normal* trading hours today in the S&P. There isn't too much room to bring in your stops just yet, so you might have to hang tough for one more session.

4: GRAINS

May Corn CK6
A reversal today in corn off the 240 resistance. I'm not sure what to make of this market (it's acting like the currencies); however we're at an RSI test, so we should see a break or bounce tomorrow. I'm going to cover the long side, but only because the support at 230 is likely to hold the market up tomorrow.

*BUY May Corn at 237 1/4
*Exit Stop: 233 3/4
*Approximate Risk: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 250 1/2
*Potential Profit: $662 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

May Oats OK6
Yeah, whatever. There's still too much chop around here for me.

March Rice RRH6
It looks as though we've got a trading range with 860 holding the market down and 832 holding it up.

May Soybean Meal SMK6
Did you notice today's fade open and the support at 176? We know this is a line to be dealt with; however it looks as though the market will rally tomorrow.

May Soybean Oil BOK6
It might be a touch early for Bean Oil to find support but I'm going to run a buy order above 2500's resistance for tomorrow.

*BUY May Bean Oil at 2507
*Exit Stop: 2473
*Approximate Risk: $204 per contract
*Profit Target: 2635
*Potential Profit: $768 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

May Soybean SK6
Soybeans look as though they want to decline, especially with the RSI hook we saw today. Even so I'm going to run a buy order above the 606 - 607 resistance.

*BUY May Soybeans at 608 1/4
*Exit Stop: 601 3/4
*Approximate Risk: $325 per contract
*Profit Target: 634 3/4
*Potential Profit: $1325 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

May Wheat WK6
Wheat's opening gap this morning took us out of our long position for a $460 loss. Ouch! Definitely not the way I wanted to start the week! I still think we had the right idea here, but I'll give the market the day off tomorrow.

5: MEATS

March Feeder Cattle FCH6
Feeders were a little more cooperative today. Go ahead and bring stops in to breakeven for tomorrow.

April Live Cattle LCJ6
RSI is pointing up slightly and we've got about $400 in profit as of today's close, so it might be a good idea to bring in stops, either above the intraday resistance at 8575 or 8600.

April Lean Hogs LHJ6
I was toying with the idea of selling Hogs below 6100 for this week...guess it was a good idea after all.

6: METALS

March Copper HGH6
A beautiful decline in Copper all but confirms that a top is in. The ranges are still pretty wild, so we'll look for things to settle a bit.

April Gold GCJ6
Big decline to correspond with the USD's bounce. Let's see what happens off 550 before we get too excited.

March Silver SIH6
Big ranges are keeping us sidelined for now.

7: SOFTS

May Cocoa CCK6
I'm waiting for an RSI test before we really snuggle up our order. Right now we'll just run the weekend trade.

*SELL May Cocoa at 1423
*Exit Stop: 1447
*Approximate Risk: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 1327
*Potential Profit: $960 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

May Coffee KCK6
Prices went down, RSI went up. Let's wait and see who wins.

May Cotton CTK6
Decision time in Cotton. The market is about halfway to our profit target today. If you're trying to ride the market (the trend is reasonably strong) then you'll want them a little better than breakeven. If you want to protect some of that $400 in profit (because a bounce looks likely) then you'll either want to cover above today's high, or 5410.

May OJ OJK6
OJ backed off the 133.50 resistance today right from the open. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow because that's the direction of the trend.

*BUY May OJ at 133.70
*Exit Stop: 131.90
*Approximate Risk: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 139.85
*Potential Profit: $922 per contract}
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

July Sugar SBN6
Sugar caught me flat footed today. The problem was that I let my *opinion* influence my decision. I was so convinced that prices *had* to come down that I failed to cover the upside, in spite of the market's very strong trend. It can happen to the best of us.