Monday, November 21, 2005

Erich and Tom's Updates for Friday, November 18, 2005


Market Update for Friday, November 18, 2005

FYI - Just a reminder that this weekend I'm heading to Mexico for our daughter's wedding, and while I will have my laptop with me the updates might be a little spotty. If I am unable to keep in touch with you we will extend your subscription to make up for the "down time". -Erich

1: CURRENCIES

December Australian Dollar ADZ5
Nothing interesting in the AD today as rates rebounded a bit and traded higher. Still looking for a chance to sell though.

December British Pound BPZ5
If the Pound wasn't so oversold I would look to sell it below yesterday's breakout, but since it is I'll wait for it to reset before selling.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
Looks like the support held and rates rallied instead. That's all right though, we'll get another chance to sell the market soon, just not tomorrow.

December EuroFX ECZ5
The EC rallied today as well. It looks like we might be in for a pullback move over the next few days.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
A little hiccup in the Yen today. Like the other currencies I'd be looking for rates to normalize a bit before trying to sell again.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
Not a very good return for all our hard work with the Peso as the market stopped us out with about $75 in profit today. Nothing new here tomorrow.

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
The SF stopped us out at breakeven today as the market reversed from the downtrend. At least it didn't cost us anything.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
As you might expect the USD reversed on our long position today and took us out at breakeven as well. Nothing new here tomorrow.

2: ENERGIES

January Unleaded Gas HUF6
Gas showed us another hit on support today, and with the low closing price it might be a good sell below here tomorrow. I'll be busy packing, but you could short 151.00 and cover above 151.30.

January Heating Oil HOF6
A rather bearish day in heating oil, but not nearly as nice a setup as what we are seeing in gas. I think I'll hold off here too.

January Crude Oil CLF6
Crude may have tipped its hand to us today as the market broke the current support. While the market is still relatively oversold, I would consider selling a break below today's low and covering at/near 5750.

3: FINANCIALS/INDICES

September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
Hmmm...two days in a row that the ED has rallied, that's unusual for this market. I would hope to see a reaction to the 9523 - 9524 resistance tomorrow as this could get us back into selling territory.

December mini-DOW YMZ5
Not much of a pullback out of the Dow today as prices closed rather strong. I want to buy this market again, but I just don't think that this is the right time.

December mini-NAS NQZ5
The NAS caught me watching again as rates made an incredible rally today. I don't care though as it was too risky a trade to try. Hopefully we'll see things normalize a bit and give us another chance.

December mini-S&P ESZ5
The S&P is still holding the middle ground, not as aggressive as the NAS but more aggressive than the Dow. Here too I'd like to see things settle down a bit, but we might not get that chance.

4: GRAINS

December Corn CZ5
Got filled on a very smallish day in corn today. You can leave your stops where they are, or bring them above 194 to take a little risk out of the trade for tomorrow.

December Oats OZ5
Oats look like they might finally be ready to go somewhere tomorrow as RSI broke the downtrend line today. We're also trading back at the strong resistance at 169 and we've got nearby support at 166 to help keep risk small.

*BUY December Oats at 169 3/4
*Stop 166 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 182 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

January Rice RRF6
If you brought your stops in above 750 you were likely stopped out today, but if you're holding at 755.5 then you're still in the trade. Today's session isn't too encouraging for tomorrow however. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
And there's the hesitation we were worried about. This is why we didn't get too anxious to sell here today. This market is still very confused about where it wants to go.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
Bean Oil continues to plug along. Nothing fancy but it is still heading lower. Nothing new here at the moment.

January Soybean SF6
Yesterday's support held up the bean market today. Like the rest of the soy complex the market is struggling for direction. We could see prices continue within a trading range.

December Wheat WZ5
Wheat continued low enough today that we can get our stops to breakeven for tomorrow. This has been a while coming, but it looks as though we might have caught a decent trade.

5: MEATS

January Feeder Cattle FCF6
The Cattle on Feed report seems to have put a wrench into the current trend. RSI hooked today so I'm confident we will see prices decline tomorrow. The report isn't released until the afternoon however, so there is still a HIGH degree of risk.

*SELL January Feeder Cattle at 113.37
*Stop 113.82
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 110.17
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1600 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle are looking bearish as well; however here we've got definite support at 9000 which is making me hold off selling tomorrow.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
Good fill in our hog short today as the market fell right from the open. Bring your stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow and remember to adjust your risk/reward on the way down.

6: METALS

December Copper HGZ5
Unbelievable. I can't believe that copper is still pressing higher. We need to get a safer signal before we try to buy it again.

December Gold GCZ5
Okay, now I'm really choked about getting gapped yesterday.

December Silver SIZ5
And now I'm really choked about the market making a "hunting-for-stops" range Tuesday.

7: SOFTS

December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa's getting closer to making a move, and the support's still holding, so I'll continue to run the sell order.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1337
*Stop 1357
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1237
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Coffee KCZ5
Coffee is getting closer to another sell as well, but you wouldn't know it from today's session. That's okay though, the support line is holding which tells us we're working the right numbers.

*SELL December Coffee at 9485
*Stop 9565
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 9010
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1781 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Cotton CTZ5
Cotton gave us a reaction to our support level today. We could look to sell the support, but I'd really like to see one more day before we get into it. You should also flip to the March chart as this one's due to expire.

January OJ OJF6
I guess OJ might not be quite ready to rally yet. The lower RSI goes the more likely prices will pick up the trend again. Keep watching tomorrow.

March Sugar SBH6
Finally sugar slowed down! Look for one more day like this and then we'd better get serious about running a buy order.

RECOMMENDED BROKER

If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

"Tom's Trades" for Friday, November 18, 2005

1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND

USDZ5 O=2-23 HI=3-10 LO=2-13 CL=3-00

We began buying 112-20. Bonds moved easily up to 113-01 at which point my stop rolled to 112-31. We were booted out there for $343. I then bought 113-03 as some juice came back into the market. Not enough to produce anything consequential however, We're out at 113-06 as we rolled our stop to -07 on the move to -10. We made 3, $93.

The close at 113-00 has us looking for either the buy or sell off this number with fills expected at 113-03 on the buy and no worse than 112-28 on the sell.

2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR

EDH6 O=.215 HI=.255 LO=.195 CL=.245

We are long from 95.150. They gave us further progress today. The stop is now at 95.235 which theoretically locks in profits of $ 225. 95.250 is going to be problematic. There is enough structure there to cause us issues before we get the break we're looking for. Be diligent in managing this trade. I'll ride tomorrow for most of the day. If the stop survives I will have to make a decision before end of day whether to keep this trade alive over the weekend. I doubt I will unless .250 gets taken out with some gusto and I have enough room to roll the stop to 95.275 and still have better than a 1 point gap to play with. That means that if it looks like we'll close the day between .250 and .275 I will bprobably take the profits. If it looks likely we'll close over .28 I'll likely keep it over the weekend with the stop at .275.

3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR

CDZ5 O=85 HI=45 LO=79 CL=35

We opened the day buying 8405 on the 8400 break higher. I exited at 19 as it stalled just above 20 for $140. I sold 8438 on the failure at 8440 and exited at 32 as it bounced back after breaking 30 picking $60.

All the weekend TT numbers again tomorrow. We'll add 8360 to the mix. Obviously the close at 8436 makes an 8440 play the most likely.

4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC

SFZ5 O=65 HI=24 LO=48 CL=15

Nothing. We can still do the 7625 level either way and the failed retest I mentioned yesterday at 7680 as being OK to sell is amended to a retest of 7675. We can also buy a retest below 7670 all the way down to 7650. Wherever withing that 20 window it turns and heads higher is fair game.

I'll stick with my weekend numbers also but they're looking very unlikely.

5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000

ERTZ5 O=6.90 HI=8.70 LO=6.10 CL=8.10

I missed the buy off 658 as the window opened for us. I bought 660.50 for the first trade and exited at 661.60 for $110. I bought 660.50 after missing the slide from 662 to 659. I exited this trade at 661.60 also for another $110. I sold at 661.40. It started getting real choppy so I just took 660.70 and bailed out picking up $70. We made another push breaking 660and again bounced rather strongly. I bought 660.50 and exited at 661.70 for $120. A very disappointing trade since we'd touched 663 and this was the best my management could get me. Next up I bought 662.50 I outwitted myself on this one. I should have been out of the trade at 663.90/80 but instead exited at 662.90 for $40. Atleast it wasn't a loss. I missed the last move to 668. $450 for the day. I'll take it but not a real gratifying day.

All the numbers tomorrow

6: DECEMBER GOLD

GCZ5 O=3.00 HI=7.80 LO=0.50 CL=6.90

Another powerful show by Gold leaping into the 480/490 channel. I can't trade up here anyway. I was, however, very tempted to declare the move lower just after the open as a confirmation and buy. I didn't. $10 channel tomorrow with the 479.10 close.

7: DECEMBER COTTON

CTZ5 O=.20 HI=.20 LO=.30 CL=.79

I couldn't get in at the open to buy the break above 49.50. I sold 49.95, survived a press on my stop at 07 to pick up $150. I'm done trading December Cotton. FND is next Tuesday and the volume has follen off to nothinh the Dec. I'll sit out tomorrow and pick up guidance on the Marc in the Big weekend Edition.

8: MARCH COCOA

COH6 O=61 HI=67 LO=49 CL=54

I let it go for the day. I was just too busy in other markets to try and figure this one out. Same TT and Update numbers tomorrow.

9: DECEMBER CORN

CZ5 O=1.92 1/4 HI=1.92 3/4 LO=1.91 3/4 CL=1.92 1/4

You just knew it was gonna' be like this ... Nothing. There were a lot of "the bottoms in" traders that got clobbered the past 3 days.

10: DECEMBER WHEAT

WZ5 O=3.07 1/2 HI=3.08 LO=3.03 3/4 CL=3.04 3/4

3.10 is still the number. Until that happens, I'm an observer with real warm hands.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Friday, November 18, 2005


Market Update for Friday, November 18, 2005

FYI - Just a reminder that this weekend I'm heading to Mexico for our daughter's wedding, and while I will have my laptop with me the updates might be a little spotty. If I am unable to keep in touch with you we will extend your subscription to make up for the "down time". -Erich

1: CURRENCIES

December Australian Dollar ADZ5
Nothing interesting in the AD today as rates rebounded a bit and traded higher. Still looking for a chance to sell though.

December British Pound BPZ5
If the Pound wasn't so oversold I would look to sell it below yesterday's breakout, but since it is I'll wait for it to reset before selling.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
Looks like the support held and rates rallied instead. That's all right though, we'll get another chance to sell the market soon, just not tomorrow.

December EuroFX ECZ5
The EC rallied today as well. It looks like we might be in for a pullback move over the next few days.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
A little hiccup in the Yen today. Like the other currencies I'd be looking for rates to normalize a bit before trying to sell again.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
Not a very good return for all our hard work with the Peso as the market stopped us out with about $75 in profit today. Nothing new here tomorrow.

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
The SF stopped us out at breakeven today as the market reversed from the downtrend. At least it didn't cost us anything.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
As you might expect the USD reversed on our long position today and took us out at breakeven as well. Nothing new here tomorrow.

2: ENERGIES

January Unleaded Gas HUF6
Gas showed us another hit on support today, and with the low closing price it might be a good sell below here tomorrow. I'll be busy packing, but you could short 151.00 and cover above 151.30.

January Heating Oil HOF6
A rather bearish day in heating oil, but not nearly as nice a setup as what we are seeing in gas. I think I'll hold off here too.

January Crude Oil CLF6
Crude may have tipped its hand to us today as the market broke the current support. While the market is still relatively oversold, I would consider selling a break below today's low and covering at/near 5750.

3: FINANCIALS/INDICES

September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
Hmmm...two days in a row that the ED has rallied, that's unusual for this market. I would hope to see a reaction to the 9523 - 9524 resistance tomorrow as this could get us back into selling territory.

December mini-DOW YMZ5
Not much of a pullback out of the Dow today as prices closed rather strong. I want to buy this market again, but I just don't think that this is the right time.

December mini-NAS NQZ5
The NAS caught me watching again as rates made an incredible rally today. I don't care though as it was too risky a trade to try. Hopefully we'll see things normalize a bit and give us another chance.

December mini-S&P ESZ5
The S&P is still holding the middle ground, not as aggressive as the NAS but more aggressive than the Dow. Here too I'd like to see things settle down a bit, but we might not get that chance.

4: GRAINS

December Corn CZ5
Got filled on a very smallish day in corn today. You can leave your stops where they are, or bring them above 194 to take a little risk out of the trade for tomorrow.

December Oats OZ5
Oats look like they might finally be ready to go somewhere tomorrow as RSI broke the downtrend line today. We're also trading back at the strong resistance at 169 and we've got nearby support at 166 to help keep risk small.

*BUY December Oats at 169 3/4
*Stop 166 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 182 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

January Rice RRF6
If you brought your stops in above 750 you were likely stopped out today, but if you're holding at 755.5 then you're still in the trade. Today's session isn't too encouraging for tomorrow however. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
And there's the hesitation we were worried about. This is why we didn't get too anxious to sell here today. This market is still very confused about where it wants to go.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
Bean Oil continues to plug along. Nothing fancy but it is still heading lower. Nothing new here at the moment.

January Soybean SF6
Yesterday's support held up the bean market today. Like the rest of the soy complex the market is struggling for direction. We could see prices continue within a trading range.

December Wheat WZ5
Wheat continued low enough today that we can get our stops to breakeven for tomorrow. This has been a while coming, but it looks as though we might have caught a decent trade.

5: MEATS

January Feeder Cattle FCF6
The Cattle on Feed report seems to have put a wrench into the current trend. RSI hooked today so I'm confident we will see prices decline tomorrow. The report isn't released until the afternoon however, so there is still a HIGH degree of risk.

*SELL January Feeder Cattle at 113.37
*Stop 113.82
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 110.17
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1600 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle are looking bearish as well; however here we've got definite support at 9000 which is making me hold off selling tomorrow.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
Good fill in our hog short today as the market fell right from the open. Bring your stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow and remember to adjust your risk/reward on the way down.

6: METALS

December Copper HGZ5
Unbelievable. I can't believe that copper is still pressing higher. We need to get a safer signal before we try to buy it again.

December Gold GCZ5
Okay, now I'm really choked about getting gapped yesterday.

December Silver SIZ5
And now I'm really choked about the market making a "hunting-for-stops" range Tuesday.

7: SOFTS

December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa's getting closer to making a move, and the support's still holding, so I'll continue to run the sell order.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1337
*Stop 1357
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1237
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Coffee KCZ5
Coffee is getting closer to another sell as well, but you wouldn't know it from today's session. That's okay though, the support line is holding which tells us we're working the right numbers.

*SELL December Coffee at 9485
*Stop 9565
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 9010
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1781 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Cotton CTZ5
Cotton gave us a reaction to our support level today. We could look to sell the support, but I'd really like to see one more day before we get into it. You should also flip to the March chart as this one's due to expire.

January OJ OJF6
I guess OJ might not be quite ready to rally yet. The lower RSI goes the more likely prices will pick up the trend again. Keep watching tomorrow.

March Sugar SBH6
Finally sugar slowed down! Look for one more day like this and then we'd better get serious about running a buy order.

RECOMMENDED BROKER

If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

"Tom's Trades" for Friday, November 18, 2005

1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND

USDZ5 O=2-23 HI=3-10 LO=2-13 CL=3-00

We began buying 112-20. Bonds moved easily up to 113-01 at which point my stop rolled to 112-31. We were booted out there for $343. I then bought 113-03 as some juice came back into the market. Not enough to produce anything consequential however, We're out at 113-06 as we rolled our stop to -07 on the move to -10. We made 3, $93.

The close at 113-00 has us looking for either the buy or sell off this number with fills expected at 113-03 on the buy and no worse than 112-28 on the sell.

2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR

EDH6 O=.215 HI=.255 LO=.195 CL=.245

We are long from 95.150. They gave us further progress today. The stop is now at 95.235 which theoretically locks in profits of $ 225. 95.250 is going to be problematic. There is enough structure there to cause us issues before we get the break we're looking for. Be diligent in managing this trade. I'll ride tomorrow for most of the day. If the stop survives I will have to make a decision before end of day whether to keep this trade alive over the weekend. I doubt I will unless .250 gets taken out with some gusto and I have enough room to roll the stop to 95.275 and still have better than a 1 point gap to play with. That means that if it looks like we'll close the day between .250 and .275 I will bprobably take the profits. If it looks likely we'll close over .28 I'll likely keep it over the weekend with the stop at .275.

3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR

CDZ5 O=85 HI=45 LO=79 CL=35

We opened the day buying 8405 on the 8400 break higher. I exited at 19 as it stalled just above 20 for $140. I sold 8438 on the failure at 8440 and exited at 32 as it bounced back after breaking 30 picking $60.

All the weekend TT numbers again tomorrow. We'll add 8360 to the mix. Obviously the close at 8436 makes an 8440 play the most likely.

4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC

SFZ5 O=65 HI=24 LO=48 CL=15

Nothing. We can still do the 7625 level either way and the failed retest I mentioned yesterday at 7680 as being OK to sell is amended to a retest of 7675. We can also buy a retest below 7670 all the way down to 7650. Wherever withing that 20 window it turns and heads higher is fair game.

I'll stick with my weekend numbers also but they're looking very unlikely.

5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000

ERTZ5 O=6.90 HI=8.70 LO=6.10 CL=8.10

I missed the buy off 658 as the window opened for us. I bought 660.50 for the first trade and exited at 661.60 for $110. I bought 660.50 after missing the slide from 662 to 659. I exited this trade at 661.60 also for another $110. I sold at 661.40. It started getting real choppy so I just took 660.70 and bailed out picking up $70. We made another push breaking 660and again bounced rather strongly. I bought 660.50 and exited at 661.70 for $120. A very disappointing trade since we'd touched 663 and this was the best my management could get me. Next up I bought 662.50 I outwitted myself on this one. I should have been out of the trade at 663.90/80 but instead exited at 662.90 for $40. Atleast it wasn't a loss. I missed the last move to 668. $450 for the day. I'll take it but not a real gratifying day.

All the numbers tomorrow

6: DECEMBER GOLD

GCZ5 O=3.00 HI=7.80 LO=0.50 CL=6.90

Another powerful show by Gold leaping into the 480/490 channel. I can't trade up here anyway. I was, however, very tempted to declare the move lower just after the open as a confirmation and buy. I didn't. $10 channel tomorrow with the 479.10 close.

7: DECEMBER COTTON

CTZ5 O=.20 HI=.20 LO=.30 CL=.79

I couldn't get in at the open to buy the break above 49.50. I sold 49.95, survived a press on my stop at 07 to pick up $150. I'm done trading December Cotton. FND is next Tuesday and the volume has follen off to nothinh the Dec. I'll sit out tomorrow and pick up guidance on the Marc in the Big weekend Edition.

8: MARCH COCOA

COH6 O=61 HI=67 LO=49 CL=54

I let it go for the day. I was just too busy in other markets to try and figure this one out. Same TT and Update numbers tomorrow.

9: DECEMBER CORN

CZ5 O=1.92 1/4 HI=1.92 3/4 LO=1.91 3/4 CL=1.92 1/4

You just knew it was gonna' be like this ... Nothing. There were a lot of "the bottoms in" traders that got clobbered the past 3 days.

10: DECEMBER WHEAT

WZ5 O=3.07 1/2 HI=3.08 LO=3.03 3/4 CL=3.04 3/4

3.10 is still the number. Until that happens, I'm an observer with real warm hands.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Friday, November 18, 2005


Market Update for Friday, November 18, 2005

FYI - Just a reminder that this weekend I'm heading to Mexico for our daughter's wedding, and while I will have my laptop with me the updates might be a little spotty. If I am unable to keep in touch with you we will extend your subscription to make up for the "down time". -Erich

1: CURRENCIES

December Australian Dollar ADZ5
Nothing interesting in the AD today as rates rebounded a bit and traded higher. Still looking for a chance to sell though.

December British Pound BPZ5
If the Pound wasn't so oversold I would look to sell it below yesterday's breakout, but since it is I'll wait for it to reset before selling.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
Looks like the support held and rates rallied instead. That's all right though, we'll get another chance to sell the market soon, just not tomorrow.

December EuroFX ECZ5
The EC rallied today as well. It looks like we might be in for a pullback move over the next few days.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
A little hiccup in the Yen today. Like the other currencies I'd be looking for rates to normalize a bit before trying to sell again.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
Not a very good return for all our hard work with the Peso as the market stopped us out with about $75 in profit today. Nothing new here tomorrow.

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
The SF stopped us out at breakeven today as the market reversed from the downtrend. At least it didn't cost us anything.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
As you might expect the USD reversed on our long position today and took us out at breakeven as well. Nothing new here tomorrow.

2: ENERGIES

January Unleaded Gas HUF6
Gas showed us another hit on support today, and with the low closing price it might be a good sell below here tomorrow. I'll be busy packing, but you could short 151.00 and cover above 151.30.

January Heating Oil HOF6
A rather bearish day in heating oil, but not nearly as nice a setup as what we are seeing in gas. I think I'll hold off here too.

January Crude Oil CLF6
Crude may have tipped its hand to us today as the market broke the current support. While the market is still relatively oversold, I would consider selling a break below today's low and covering at/near 5750.

3: FINANCIALS/INDICES

September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
Hmmm...two days in a row that the ED has rallied, that's unusual for this market. I would hope to see a reaction to the 9523 - 9524 resistance tomorrow as this could get us back into selling territory.

December mini-DOW YMZ5
Not much of a pullback out of the Dow today as prices closed rather strong. I want to buy this market again, but I just don't think that this is the right time.

December mini-NAS NQZ5
The NAS caught me watching again as rates made an incredible rally today. I don't care though as it was too risky a trade to try. Hopefully we'll see things normalize a bit and give us another chance.

December mini-S&P ESZ5
The S&P is still holding the middle ground, not as aggressive as the NAS but more aggressive than the Dow. Here too I'd like to see things settle down a bit, but we might not get that chance.

4: GRAINS

December Corn CZ5
Got filled on a very smallish day in corn today. You can leave your stops where they are, or bring them above 194 to take a little risk out of the trade for tomorrow.

December Oats OZ5
Oats look like they might finally be ready to go somewhere tomorrow as RSI broke the downtrend line today. We're also trading back at the strong resistance at 169 and we've got nearby support at 166 to help keep risk small.

*BUY December Oats at 169 3/4
*Stop 166 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 182 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $625 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

January Rice RRF6
If you brought your stops in above 750 you were likely stopped out today, but if you're holding at 755.5 then you're still in the trade. Today's session isn't too encouraging for tomorrow however. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
And there's the hesitation we were worried about. This is why we didn't get too anxious to sell here today. This market is still very confused about where it wants to go.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
Bean Oil continues to plug along. Nothing fancy but it is still heading lower. Nothing new here at the moment.

January Soybean SF6
Yesterday's support held up the bean market today. Like the rest of the soy complex the market is struggling for direction. We could see prices continue within a trading range.

December Wheat WZ5
Wheat continued low enough today that we can get our stops to breakeven for tomorrow. This has been a while coming, but it looks as though we might have caught a decent trade.

5: MEATS

January Feeder Cattle FCF6
The Cattle on Feed report seems to have put a wrench into the current trend. RSI hooked today so I'm confident we will see prices decline tomorrow. The report isn't released until the afternoon however, so there is still a HIGH degree of risk.

*SELL January Feeder Cattle at 113.37
*Stop 113.82
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 110.17
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1600 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle are looking bearish as well; however here we've got definite support at 9000 which is making me hold off selling tomorrow.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
Good fill in our hog short today as the market fell right from the open. Bring your stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow and remember to adjust your risk/reward on the way down.

6: METALS

December Copper HGZ5
Unbelievable. I can't believe that copper is still pressing higher. We need to get a safer signal before we try to buy it again.

December Gold GCZ5
Okay, now I'm really choked about getting gapped yesterday.

December Silver SIZ5
And now I'm really choked about the market making a "hunting-for-stops" range Tuesday.

7: SOFTS

December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa's getting closer to making a move, and the support's still holding, so I'll continue to run the sell order.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1337
*Stop 1357
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1237
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Coffee KCZ5
Coffee is getting closer to another sell as well, but you wouldn't know it from today's session. That's okay though, the support line is holding which tells us we're working the right numbers.

*SELL December Coffee at 9485
*Stop 9565
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 9010
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1781 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Cotton CTZ5
Cotton gave us a reaction to our support level today. We could look to sell the support, but I'd really like to see one more day before we get into it. You should also flip to the March chart as this one's due to expire.

January OJ OJF6
I guess OJ might not be quite ready to rally yet. The lower RSI goes the more likely prices will pick up the trend again. Keep watching tomorrow.

March Sugar SBH6
Finally sugar slowed down! Look for one more day like this and then we'd better get serious about running a buy order.

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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, November 18, 2005

1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND

USDZ5 O=2-23 HI=3-10 LO=2-13 CL=3-00

We began buying 112-20. Bonds moved easily up to 113-01 at which point my stop rolled to 112-31. We were booted out there for $343. I then bought 113-03 as some juice came back into the market. Not enough to produce anything consequential however, We're out at 113-06 as we rolled our stop to -07 on the move to -10. We made 3, $93.

The close at 113-00 has us looking for either the buy or sell off this number with fills expected at 113-03 on the buy and no worse than 112-28 on the sell.

2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR

EDH6 O=.215 HI=.255 LO=.195 CL=.245

We are long from 95.150. They gave us further progress today. The stop is now at 95.235 which theoretically locks in profits of $ 225. 95.250 is going to be problematic. There is enough structure there to cause us issues before we get the break we're looking for. Be diligent in managing this trade. I'll ride tomorrow for most of the day. If the stop survives I will have to make a decision before end of day whether to keep this trade alive over the weekend. I doubt I will unless .250 gets taken out with some gusto and I have enough room to roll the stop to 95.275 and still have better than a 1 point gap to play with. That means that if it looks like we'll close the day between .250 and .275 I will bprobably take the profits. If it looks likely we'll close over .28 I'll likely keep it over the weekend with the stop at .275.

3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR

CDZ5 O=85 HI=45 LO=79 CL=35

We opened the day buying 8405 on the 8400 break higher. I exited at 19 as it stalled just above 20 for $140. I sold 8438 on the failure at 8440 and exited at 32 as it bounced back after breaking 30 picking $60.

All the weekend TT numbers again tomorrow. We'll add 8360 to the mix. Obviously the close at 8436 makes an 8440 play the most likely.

4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC

SFZ5 O=65 HI=24 LO=48 CL=15

Nothing. We can still do the 7625 level either way and the failed retest I mentioned yesterday at 7680 as being OK to sell is amended to a retest of 7675. We can also buy a retest below 7670 all the way down to 7650. Wherever withing that 20 window it turns and heads higher is fair game.

I'll stick with my weekend numbers also but they're looking very unlikely.

5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000

ERTZ5 O=6.90 HI=8.70 LO=6.10 CL=8.10

I missed the buy off 658 as the window opened for us. I bought 660.50 for the first trade and exited at 661.60 for $110. I bought 660.50 after missing the slide from 662 to 659. I exited this trade at 661.60 also for another $110. I sold at 661.40. It started getting real choppy so I just took 660.70 and bailed out picking up $70. We made another push breaking 660and again bounced rather strongly. I bought 660.50 and exited at 661.70 for $120. A very disappointing trade since we'd touched 663 and this was the best my management could get me. Next up I bought 662.50 I outwitted myself on this one. I should have been out of the trade at 663.90/80 but instead exited at 662.90 for $40. Atleast it wasn't a loss. I missed the last move to 668. $450 for the day. I'll take it but not a real gratifying day.

All the numbers tomorrow

6: DECEMBER GOLD

GCZ5 O=3.00 HI=7.80 LO=0.50 CL=6.90

Another powerful show by Gold leaping into the 480/490 channel. I can't trade up here anyway. I was, however, very tempted to declare the move lower just after the open as a confirmation and buy. I didn't. $10 channel tomorrow with the 479.10 close.

7: DECEMBER COTTON

CTZ5 O=.20 HI=.20 LO=.30 CL=.79

I couldn't get in at the open to buy the break above 49.50. I sold 49.95, survived a press on my stop at 07 to pick up $150. I'm done trading December Cotton. FND is next Tuesday and the volume has follen off to nothinh the Dec. I'll sit out tomorrow and pick up guidance on the Marc in the Big weekend Edition.

8: MARCH COCOA

COH6 O=61 HI=67 LO=49 CL=54

I let it go for the day. I was just too busy in other markets to try and figure this one out. Same TT and Update numbers tomorrow.

9: DECEMBER CORN

CZ5 O=1.92 1/4 HI=1.92 3/4 LO=1.91 3/4 CL=1.92 1/4

You just knew it was gonna' be like this ... Nothing. There were a lot of "the bottoms in" traders that got clobbered the past 3 days.

10: DECEMBER WHEAT

WZ5 O=3.07 1/2 HI=3.08 LO=3.03 3/4 CL=3.04 3/4

3.10 is still the number. Until that happens, I'm an observer with real warm hands.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Thursday, November 17, 2005



Market Update for Thursday, November 17, 2005


Before-the-Market Trade Picks from 2 different viewpoints in the Currencies, Energies, Financials, Indices, Grains, Meats, Metals and Softs. Day Trades and Position Trades!

"I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I'm concerned it is a full time job - perhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success." - Jesse Livermore


1: CURRENCIES



December Australian Dollar ADZ5
The AD was a little more subdued today and might be ready to head lower tomorrow; however that's just a hunch, we don't have enough here to propose a trade - yet.

December British Pound BPZ5
Well we knew 172.50 was important, but I didn't think we'd gap right by it! If we get a smallish session tomorrow I'll look to sell again before the weekend, otherwise we could be on hold a while.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
A good setup in the CD as the market continues to reinforce support. We could see a bounce, but the trend is down, so I'm looking to sell.

*SELL December Canadian Dollar at 8347
*Stop 8381
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 8217
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December EuroFX ECZ5
Another smallish day in the EC which is strange given the Pound's bigger move (these markets usually move closely together). I thought about selling the low; however it'd be a crap shoot so I won't.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
I know I've been griping about this all week, but it really is a shame the market gapped our short order in this market as it continues to fall off nicely. Still looking for another chance to sell.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
You should still be long this market, but just barely as the Peso made a big reversal today. If you haven't done so already bring stops to breakeven or just below today's low.

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
We caught a break as the Swiss Franc fell off enough today that we can move our stops to breakeven. The *ideal* placement is still the original; however I'm not comfortable having $400 at risk with such a crummy closing price.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
And the USD cut us some slack today as well by clearing our entry enough that we can the trade to breakeven (if you choose). Alternatively you should consider snuggling the stops under the 9200 line for tomorrow. RSI is extremely overbought and a hiccup looks likely.



2: ENERGIES



January Unleaded Gas HUF6
If you tightened your stops you would have been taken out of the trade no worse than breakeven today as gas prices rallied. It'll be a couple of days before we can put on another trade here.

January Heating Oil HOF6
And that is exactly why I said we need to bring stops in tight for today as heating oil took away all of yesterday's gains! Hopefully you walked with a tidy sum after today's reversal. We'll probably be on the sidelines for a day or two.

January Crude Oil CLF6
Crude lead the way today giving us a bounce off support. Don't let the low of the day fool you, the support was 5750.



3: FINANCIALS/INDICES



September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
I should have stuck to Plan 'A' and sold the 9500 line. I knew it was safer, but I got a little anxious. This is what I get for being anxious - a $200 smack in the wallet!

December mini-DOW YMZ5
The Dow is beginning its pullback phase. Hopefully we will see a bit of dip here which would make it easier to buy the market long.

December mini-NAS NQZ5
The NAS is still looking aggressive today in spite of the extremely overbought RSI. In all the time I've been following this indicator I don't think I've ever seen it reach these levels!

December mini-S&P ESZ5
The S&P is somewhere between the pulling back Dow and the aggressive NAS. I'd like to see a pullback, it makes sense and would give us a chance to buy.



4: GRAINS



December Corn CZ5
Okay Corn, I'll bite. Today's bearish session is encouraging for tomorrow; however don't be surprised if the market puts on the brakes again. We've got to look a long way to the next long term support to get a reasonable profit target.

*SELL December Corn at 191 3/4
*Stop 196 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 175 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Oats OZ5
Oats continue to hold the triangle formation and continue to trade without trend. I'll just keep watching.

January Rice RRF6
Good fill in rice today as prices broke our 750 support line. There's not a lot of room to adjust stops yet so you might leave them where they are if you're comfortable with that. Otherwise bring them just above 750...but not too tight!

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
Wow! The bottom fell out of Soy Meal today and I thought about selling the market short tomorrow; however we've got serious support at the low and then again at 170 and 167.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
We should at least get a temporary reaction to the heavy support at 2220 before prices are likely to continue lower.

January Soybean SF6
Beans ran away alright...but the wrong way! Like soy meal, I want to sell tomorrow, but the next support is too close and a bounce is certainly possible.

December Wheat WZ5
Wheat continued lower today, and while it's still too early to get the trade to breakeven, we can bring stops in above today's high if you like.



5: MEATS



January Feeder Cattle FCF6
Still running the buy order for Feeders but I'm not sure the market has enough left in it. We might see a third test of the contract highs, which could give us a substantial selling opportunity.

*BUY January Feeder Cattle at 115.37
*Stop 114.87
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.65
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle are hugging the trendline beautifully, but we're still too close to the nasty contract high to get serious about a buy.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
Hogs gave us a totally different look today as the market reversed on yesterday's gains. This back 'n forth is a sign of indecision and possibly a big breakout when it comes. Given that the market is slightly overbought I might entertain a sell. If prices rally we should still be able to get a trade off the contract highs.

*SELL December Lean Hogs at 6265
*Stop 6320
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 6005
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1040 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH



6: METALS



December Copper HGZ5
Copper struggled unsuccessfully to take out yesterday's high. This is our first clue that a reversal is due tomorrow. I'm just watching.

December Gold GCZ5
Don't you just hate gaps like this? We had this market pegged only to get gapped today. Nuts.

December Silver SIZ5
Proof that yesterday was nothing more than a "clear the table" day. The next time we see silver clean house like this I'm going to bracket the trade for the *real* rally.



7: SOFTS



December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa's holding on but it doesn't look too impressive right now. We'll run the trade again tomorrow in case the market picks up steam.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1337
*Stop 1357
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1237
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Coffee KCZ5
Coffee gave us a slight hesitation today, and since we might not get another chance, I'll look to sell a break of yesterday's low. Stops are on the other side of 9550's resistance. It's a tight trade to say the least.

*SELL December Coffee at 9485
*Stop 9565
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 9010
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1781 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Cotton CTZ5
Cotton would have found our first profit target today if prices weren't so choppy in between. Still watching for tomorrow.

January OJ OJF6
OJ's confirmed support today, and all looks well; however I'm going to wait for the break of 125 before buying long.

March Sugar SBH6
I haven't seen sugar rally like this for quite some time. I want to buy it long, no question; however we can't do it from here. Did you notice the size of the bars decreasing? The market's running out of steam.


"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, November 16, 2005


My trading day was shortened today by a followup visit to my surgeon. I stopped trading at 10:30 my time. I will attempt to comment on what happened after I left so we have some continuity but understand I did nothing real after that time.


1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND


USDZ5 O1-30 HI2-28 LO1-27 CL2-23

We began the day buying 112-03. We made a quick run to -09, we were stopped out at -07 for $125. I bought -04 later in the day. We proceeded to -24/-25 with minimal effort. I exited at -21 for $531.


2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR


EDH6 O•.185 HI•.225 LO•.175 CL•.215

A nice reward day for our patience in letting structure mature a bit. .225 is now the next resistance to deal with. If we can get thru there tomorrow I'll cinch up the stop to .215, today's close. We now have $150 of paper profits. We'll be resistant to giving much of that back. If we can make it thru .250 I'll snug the stop up to .235. We have a little gap between .325 and .340. I'd be overjoyed to see that puppy closed.


3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR


CDZ5 Oƒ92 HI„13 LOƒ60 CLƒ90

I bought 8364 as the CD failed at 8360 for the second day in a row. Yes, your point is well taken ... I did NOT call a buy there in the Update or TT. It was too obvious to ignore. I exited at 8404 for $400. It looks like we'd have sold the break of 8400 about 8396 or so. We'd probably been stopped out of this one near 8410 giving back about $140. Looks like we'd have sold 8396 or so again. This one avoided the stop and fianlly turned lower. We should have exited the trade around 8388/90 getting back $60 or so of the loss on the 2nd trade.

All the weekend TT numbers again tomorrow. We'll add 8360 to the mix.


4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC


SFZ5 Ov19 HIv26 LOu50 CLu77

Another down day with no structure. I'll buy a break back above 7625. I think we can sell a failed retest there as well. It's not powerful but it is doable. We can also now sell a failed retest at 7680

I'll stick with my weekend numbers also but they're looking very unlikely.



5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000


ERTZ5 Oe7.20 HIe9.50 LOe0.30 CLe7.10

We began selling 657.50 off the 658 break. Russell punched thru 654 and then bounced off 653. I exited at 654.10 using our "OB" play for $340. We then bought 651.50 off the failure and turn at 651. I exited at 655.90 as it failed at 656 ... one of our numbers. Out with $440. Next we sold 654.50 off the 656 break lower. I exited this one at 653.20 for $130. We had $910 and the Dr. appt was approaching so I closed down for the day. Looks to me like there were 2 more trade possibilities that we could have done. If we'd been successful in our typical management you should have taken another 3-400 home.

All the numbers tomorrow



6: DECEMBER GOLD


GCZ5 OG3.70 HIG9.40 LOG3.50 CLG9.10

Nothing for us today. A sizable gap up shut us down for the day.

$10 channel tomorrow with the 479.10 close.



7: DECEMBER COTTON


CTZ5 OP.20 HIP.20 LOI.30 CLI.79

We sold 49.95 and exited at 49.50 for $225

All the same TT numbers for tomorrow. We showed some strength at the close. Careful tomorrow on the open



8: MARCH COCOA


COH6 O61 HI67 LO49 CL54

Didn't give us a shot until too close to end of day. 1350 is a strong focus tomorrow.



9: DECEMBER CORN


CZ5 O=1.96 HI=1.96 LO=1.92 1/4 CL=1.92 3/4

How'd you like THAT little snap back? Wicked, huh? Still an observer



10: DECEMBER WHEAT


WZ5 O=3.07 HI=3.08 1/2 LO=3.04 1/2 CL=3.06 3/4

3.10 is still the number. Until that happens, I'm an observer with real warm hands.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Thursday, November 17, 2005



Market Update for Thursday, November 17, 2005


Before-the-Market Trade Picks from 2 different viewpoints in the Currencies, Energies, Financials, Indices, Grains, Meats, Metals and Softs. Day Trades and Position Trades!

"I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I'm concerned it is a full time job - perhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success." - Jesse Livermore


1: CURRENCIES



December Australian Dollar ADZ5
The AD was a little more subdued today and might be ready to head lower tomorrow; however that's just a hunch, we don't have enough here to propose a trade - yet.

December British Pound BPZ5
Well we knew 172.50 was important, but I didn't think we'd gap right by it! If we get a smallish session tomorrow I'll look to sell again before the weekend, otherwise we could be on hold a while.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
A good setup in the CD as the market continues to reinforce support. We could see a bounce, but the trend is down, so I'm looking to sell.

*SELL December Canadian Dollar at 8347
*Stop 8381
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 8217
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December EuroFX ECZ5
Another smallish day in the EC which is strange given the Pound's bigger move (these markets usually move closely together). I thought about selling the low; however it'd be a crap shoot so I won't.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
I know I've been griping about this all week, but it really is a shame the market gapped our short order in this market as it continues to fall off nicely. Still looking for another chance to sell.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
You should still be long this market, but just barely as the Peso made a big reversal today. If you haven't done so already bring stops to breakeven or just below today's low.

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
We caught a break as the Swiss Franc fell off enough today that we can move our stops to breakeven. The *ideal* placement is still the original; however I'm not comfortable having $400 at risk with such a crummy closing price.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
And the USD cut us some slack today as well by clearing our entry enough that we can the trade to breakeven (if you choose). Alternatively you should consider snuggling the stops under the 9200 line for tomorrow. RSI is extremely overbought and a hiccup looks likely.



2: ENERGIES



January Unleaded Gas HUF6
If you tightened your stops you would have been taken out of the trade no worse than breakeven today as gas prices rallied. It'll be a couple of days before we can put on another trade here.

January Heating Oil HOF6
And that is exactly why I said we need to bring stops in tight for today as heating oil took away all of yesterday's gains! Hopefully you walked with a tidy sum after today's reversal. We'll probably be on the sidelines for a day or two.

January Crude Oil CLF6
Crude lead the way today giving us a bounce off support. Don't let the low of the day fool you, the support was 5750.



3: FINANCIALS/INDICES



September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
I should have stuck to Plan 'A' and sold the 9500 line. I knew it was safer, but I got a little anxious. This is what I get for being anxious - a $200 smack in the wallet!

December mini-DOW YMZ5
The Dow is beginning its pullback phase. Hopefully we will see a bit of dip here which would make it easier to buy the market long.

December mini-NAS NQZ5
The NAS is still looking aggressive today in spite of the extremely overbought RSI. In all the time I've been following this indicator I don't think I've ever seen it reach these levels!

December mini-S&P ESZ5
The S&P is somewhere between the pulling back Dow and the aggressive NAS. I'd like to see a pullback, it makes sense and would give us a chance to buy.



4: GRAINS



December Corn CZ5
Okay Corn, I'll bite. Today's bearish session is encouraging for tomorrow; however don't be surprised if the market puts on the brakes again. We've got to look a long way to the next long term support to get a reasonable profit target.

*SELL December Corn at 191 3/4
*Stop 196 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 175 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Oats OZ5
Oats continue to hold the triangle formation and continue to trade without trend. I'll just keep watching.

January Rice RRF6
Good fill in rice today as prices broke our 750 support line. There's not a lot of room to adjust stops yet so you might leave them where they are if you're comfortable with that. Otherwise bring them just above 750...but not too tight!

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
Wow! The bottom fell out of Soy Meal today and I thought about selling the market short tomorrow; however we've got serious support at the low and then again at 170 and 167.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
We should at least get a temporary reaction to the heavy support at 2220 before prices are likely to continue lower.

January Soybean SF6
Beans ran away alright...but the wrong way! Like soy meal, I want to sell tomorrow, but the next support is too close and a bounce is certainly possible.

December Wheat WZ5
Wheat continued lower today, and while it's still too early to get the trade to breakeven, we can bring stops in above today's high if you like.



5: MEATS



January Feeder Cattle FCF6
Still running the buy order for Feeders but I'm not sure the market has enough left in it. We might see a third test of the contract highs, which could give us a substantial selling opportunity.

*BUY January Feeder Cattle at 115.37
*Stop 114.87
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.65
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle are hugging the trendline beautifully, but we're still too close to the nasty contract high to get serious about a buy.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
Hogs gave us a totally different look today as the market reversed on yesterday's gains. This back 'n forth is a sign of indecision and possibly a big breakout when it comes. Given that the market is slightly overbought I might entertain a sell. If prices rally we should still be able to get a trade off the contract highs.

*SELL December Lean Hogs at 6265
*Stop 6320
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 6005
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1040 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH



6: METALS



December Copper HGZ5
Copper struggled unsuccessfully to take out yesterday's high. This is our first clue that a reversal is due tomorrow. I'm just watching.

December Gold GCZ5
Don't you just hate gaps like this? We had this market pegged only to get gapped today. Nuts.

December Silver SIZ5
Proof that yesterday was nothing more than a "clear the table" day. The next time we see silver clean house like this I'm going to bracket the trade for the *real* rally.



7: SOFTS



December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa's holding on but it doesn't look too impressive right now. We'll run the trade again tomorrow in case the market picks up steam.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1337
*Stop 1357
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1237
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Coffee KCZ5
Coffee gave us a slight hesitation today, and since we might not get another chance, I'll look to sell a break of yesterday's low. Stops are on the other side of 9550's resistance. It's a tight trade to say the least.

*SELL December Coffee at 9485
*Stop 9565
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 9010
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1781 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Cotton CTZ5
Cotton would have found our first profit target today if prices weren't so choppy in between. Still watching for tomorrow.

January OJ OJF6
OJ's confirmed support today, and all looks well; however I'm going to wait for the break of 125 before buying long.

March Sugar SBH6
I haven't seen sugar rally like this for quite some time. I want to buy it long, no question; however we can't do it from here. Did you notice the size of the bars decreasing? The market's running out of steam.


"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, November 16, 2005


My trading day was shortened today by a followup visit to my surgeon. I stopped trading at 10:30 my time. I will attempt to comment on what happened after I left so we have some continuity but understand I did nothing real after that time.


1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND


We began the day buying 112-03. We made a quick run to -09, we were stopped out at -07 for $125. I bought -04 later in the day. We proceeded to -24/-25 with minimal effort. I exited at -21 for $531.


2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR


EDH6 O.185 HI.225 LO.175 CL.215

A nice reward day for our patience in letting structure mature a bit. .225 is now the next resistance to deal with. If we can get thru there tomorrow I'll cinch up the stop to .215, today's close. We now have $150 of paper profits. We'll be resistant to giving much of that back. If we can make it thru .250 I'll snug the stop up to .235. We have a little gap between .325 and .340. I'd be overjoyed to see that puppy closed.


3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR


CDZ5 O=92 HI=13 LO=60 CL=90

I bought 8364 as the CD failed at 8360 for the second day in a row. Yes, your point is well taken ... I did NOT call a buy there in the Update or TT. It was too obvious to ignore. I exited at 8404 for $400. It looks like we'd have sold the break of 8400 about 8396 or so. We'd probably been stopped out of this one near 8410 giving back about $140. Looks like we'd have sold 8396 or so again. This one avoided the stop and fianlly turned lower. We should have exited the trade around 8388/90 getting back $60 or so of the loss on the 2nd trade.

All the weekend TT numbers again tomorrow. We'll add 8360 to the mix.


4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC


SFZ5 O=19 HI=26 LO=50 CL=77

Another down day with no structure. I'll buy a break back above 7625. I think we can sell a failed retest there as well. It's not powerful but it is doable. We can also now sell a failed retest at 7680

I'll stick with my weekend numbers also but they're looking very unlikely.



5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000


ERTZ5 O=7.20 HI=9.50 LO=0.30 CL=7.10

We began selling 657.50 off the 658 break. Russell punched thru 654 and then bounced off 653. I exited at 654.10 using our "OB" play for $340. We then bought 651.50 off the failure and turn at 651. I exited at 655.90 as it failed at 656 ... one of our numbers. Out with $440. Next we sold 654.50 off the 656 break lower. I exited this one at 653.20 for $130. We had $910 and the Dr. appt was approaching so I closed down for the day. Looks to me like there were 2 more trade possibilities that we could have done. If we'd been successful in our typical management you should have taken another 3-400 home.

All the numbers tomorrow



6: DECEMBER GOLD


GCZ5 O=3.70 HI=9.40 LO=3.50 CL=9.10

Nothing for us today. A sizable gap up shut us down for the day.

$10 channel tomorrow with the 479.10 close.



7: DECEMBER COTTON


CTZ5 O=.20 HI=.20 LO=.30 CL=.79

We sold 49.95 and exited at 49.50 for $225

All the same TT numbers for tomorrow. We showed some strength at the close. Careful tomorrow on the open



8: MARCH COCOA



Didn't give us a shot until too close to end of day. 1350 is a strong focus tomorrow.



9: DECEMBER CORN


CZ5 O=1.96 HI=1.96 LO=1.92 1/4 CL=1.92 3/4

How'd you like THAT little snap back? Wicked, huh? Still an observer



10: DECEMBER WHEAT


WZ5 O=3.07 HI=3.08 1/2 LO=3.04 1/2 CL=3.06 3/4

3.10 is still the number. Until that happens, I'm an observer with real warm hands.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Wednesday, November 16, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Wednesday, November 16, 2005
==================================================
"I am fully aware that of the millions of people who speculate in the markets, few people spend full time involved in the art of speculation. Yet, as far as I'm concerned it is a full time job perhaps even more than a job. Perhaps it is a vocation, where many are called but few are singled out for success." Jesse Livermore
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================

December Australian Dollar ADZ5
It looks like it was a good thing our entry got gapped yesterday as today the AD made a quickie reversal. Look for a rally and test of the 7400 area before we could get another bounce.

December British Pound BPZ5
Nice move lower by the Pound today as we get closer to the 172.50 support. We're almost certain to see a bounce from here. Who knows, we might even look at a buy.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
The CD showed some support today, but don't let the market fool you, it is in a downtrend and as soon as things settle down a bit we should look to sell again.

December EuroFX ECZ5
Slight stall in the EC today as well. If you are still short this market from the other week you'll want stops above today's highs.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
Good ole Yen, I knew I could count on this one to continue lower today. Too bad it gapped our entry yesterday.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
The Peso continued higher today on a rather strong session. Bring stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow and below today's low if you like.

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
Nuts...we can't catch a break with this market. Today the Swissy fell off but the market closed so high we still can't do anything with our stops.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
And the USD is equally as depressing a situation as the market rallied today, but again the closing price doesn't give us any flexibility in stop adjustment for tomorrow.

==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================

January Unleaded Gas HUF6
Caught a nice breakout in Gas today. The *ideal* stop placement is still 154.65, but I'm not too crazy about still risking $400+, besides we're up over $500 as of the close so bring your stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow!

January Heating Oil HOF6
Oh baby, oh baby! What a great day in heating oil today as we got even a cleaner fill than with gas! Exit stops have to come at least to breakeven for tomorrow, but we're up about $1000 as of the close. I don't know about you, but I'd hate to give that back!

There's intermediate resistance at 177.50 that you could use to hide your stops, but don't be shy about making them tighter still. And make sure you've got a profit order working too.

January Crude Oil CLF6
As suspected crude wasn't nearly the day the other two energy markets gave us. Nothing new here tomorrow.

==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================

September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
Our ED trade doesn't look to good right now as the 9500 support is holding for the time being. If you took the *safer* trade then you're still flat, but you'll want to run it tomorrow as we're at an RSI test.

December miniDOW YMZ5
No real surprise here as a weaker day was inevitable. With a bit of luck we'll see a bit of a pullback follow for the rest of the week.

December miniNAS NQZ5
The NAS continues to be the most agressive of the minidices giving us a rather substantial pullback today. Note the support on the low...I'd love to see a couple more days like this, just so we can buy in at a better price.

December miniS&P ESZ5
Ditto for the S&P.

==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================

December Corn CZ5
What's this? Is corn becoming more active again? RSI gave us a good hook today so it's probably *safe* to sell today's low tomorrow, but the problem is, where is the market going?

I might hold off until we get closer to the contract low.

December Oats OZ5
Oats continue to hold the triangle formation and continue to trade without trend. I'll just keep watching.

January Rice RRF6
Rice broke the trendline support today, firmly planting the market into a technical downtrend. More important than that however is where the market made its low today: 750. Did you notice all the support here? This is a pretty strong level. I'll look to sell a break here tomorrow and cover on the other side.

*SELL January Rice at 747.5
*Stop 755.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 716.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $620 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
Soy meal is still holding up on resistance. I want to buy this market but I'm a little nervous about the current condition. Let's see a pullback to 176...then we'll talk.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
I'm still looking to sell bean oil, but how can I with all that support at 2220?

January Soybean SF6
Evil bean market continues to poke away at support. I like the upside potential, but I'm not quite ready to buy yet. Please don't run away in the meantime.

December Wheat WZ5
In hindsight we could have made this trade a whole lot tighter! No matter, we got a fill near the dying minutes of the day, which can be a good sign sometimes. We'll know tomorrow.

==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================

January Feeder Cattle FCF6
You've got to give Feeders an 'A' for effort. After a kick in the teeth at the end of last week the market is recovered almost to its previous point. Therefore if we get a break above the contract high, I might be persuaded to buy.

*BUY January Feeder Cattle at 115.37
*Stop 114.87
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.65
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle are hugging the trendline beautifully, but we're still too close to the nasty contract high to get serious about a buy.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
Hogs are definitely looking more bullish again; however here too we've still got the contract highs to consider when placing buy orders.

==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================

December Copper HGZ5
Wow, I didn't think copper would be able to sustain this run as long as it has. Still on hold for tomorrow.

December Gold GCZ5
Gold continues to be stuck in a sideways channel so I'll consider a trade for tomorrow. I'll just be looking to buy at the moment because of the heavy support at 765 766 which could ruin our sell trade, but if the market declines tomorrow I'll add a short position.

*BUY December Gold at 471.7
*Stop 468.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 480.7
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Silver SIZ5
We got stopped out of silver today with a small profit but it might have been unfortunate since the market quickly recovered off the 770 support and traded higher for the rest of the session. I'm on hold for tomorrow, but we could see another buy here soon.

==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================

December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa's holding the support line and getting quite oversold. This could translate into a rally in the short term, but I'll continue to run the sell tomorrow.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1337
*Stop 1357
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1237
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Coffee KCZ5
Holey Moley! What a couple of days in coffee! I'm cautious about this market at the best of times...forget it now!

December Cotton CTZ5
Isn't that just like cotton? We gave the market some elbow room, but it wasn't enough. Today prices continued lower. #@%&!

January OJ OJF6
OJ's getting close to the 118 support line which could be a buy if we see a bounce here tomorrow.

March Sugar SBH6
Yep...that's sugar all right. I've got to regain my touch in this market. I used to be able to nail it...but not recently I'm afraid.

========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, November 16, 2005
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=113 HI=202 LO=104 CL=130

We started the day selling 11114. We made it down to 04 where I rolled the stop to 07 which was hit almost immediately. Out with 7, $218. I bought 09 and was sstopped out at B/E just before it took off higher again. Given the entry at 09 I might have over managed this one and it cost me. I bought 11121 and exited at 11131 for $312. I sold 11128 and was stopped at 31 giving back 3, $93.

Th eclose at 11130 puts us on 11200 and 11116 for tomorrow.

========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.165 HI=.185 LO=.150 CL=.175

We bought 95.150 with a stop at 95.145. We closed at 95.175. Let's see where they take us. First stop on the journey should be 95.200.

========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=87 HI=00 LO=57 CL=90

It did our numbers but too late and in reverse. We hit 8360 early on and climbed back to 40.

All the weekend TT numbers again tomorrow. We'll add a roll at 8360 as well.

========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=11 HI=39 LO=75 CL=12

Nothing today until very late, too late, in the day. I'll stick with my weekend numbers but they're looking very unlikely.

========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=6.80 HI=7.20 LO=6.10 CL=7.30

We began with a sell at 664.60 and exited at 662.30 over running our "once broken" stop at 882.10. We still managed to capture $230. I tried to buy 660 something after the turn around at 660.30 but couldn't get it. I bought 662.40 and exited at 661.70 losing $70. I sold 661.50 and exited at .70 losing $20. I then sold 661.70 and exited at 9:24 CDT. I exited this one at 660.20 on an "OB" play for $150. I then bought 660.60 and exited 662.80 for $220. It then traded sideways for an hour or so.

I finally bought 662.50 about 10:25 CDT and exited at 664.80 after 665 failed to hold for $230. I bought 666.40 and exited at 665.90 dropping $50. I then sold 664.60 and exited at 665.50 losing $90. Next we bought 666.40. I tried to exit at 665.90 but they caught me in a down draft. I exited at 665.40 losing $100. We then sold 664.80 and exited at 658.40 for $640. I called it quits with $1230.

All the numbers tomorrow

========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=9.00 HI=0.80 LO=7.70 CL=9.00

Nothing for us today. 460 and the $10 channel tomorrow.

========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.05 HI=.05 LO=.26 CL=.28

I sold 50.90 and exited at 50.35 for 55 points, $275. All the same TT numbers for tomorrow.

========================================================
8: MARCH COCOA
========================================================
COH6 O=60 HI=77 LO=46 CL=51

We sat on our hands today. Tomorrow I will buy a break above 1380 or sell a retest there which fails. I will also buy a retest of 1350 as it turns back higher. I want a fill below 1355 but may not get that. !359 I will live with as a max entry.

========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=1.97 3/4 HI=1.98 1/2 LO=1.95 1/2 CL=1.95 3/4

Still an observer.

========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.13 1/2 HI=3.16 LO=3.06 CL=3.07

I' a temp onserver for the moment. I did not like the cloe at all. A big failure.

Erich and Tom's Market Update for Tuesday, November 15, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Tuesday, November 15, 2005
==================================================
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================

December Australian Dollar ADZ5
The AD fell off today but gapped us on the entry. It was only a small gap so you might have decided to give it a go anyway. If you did take the trade you could tighten the stops a bit so that you have approximately 1/2 the original risk amount.

December British Pound BPZ5
The Pound inched lower today. We've still got strong support at 172.50 and 173.20 just below the market. I'm holding off for the moment.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
The CD is in a nose dive as the Federal politicians are up to their old tricks again and that's spooking investors. The market is making such big ranges however that I'm not sure how we're going to trade it.

December EuroFX ECZ5
The EC continued lower today. If you're still short from last week you could bring stops to the other side of 117.70.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
I halfways expected this from the Yen today as the market gapped our entry and voided our sell order. Too bad.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
The Peso gave us a bit of breathing room today. We can bring the exit stops under the 93000 support for tomorrow.

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
We got a crappy fill in the Swiss Franc today, and with the high close we can't adjust our stops any either. Buckle your seat belts for tomorrow, this could be a short and bumpy ride.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
The USD filled our long order today, but it was disappointing that the market didn't close above the resistance. This means it's still intact, and we have to leave stops where they are.

==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================

January Unleaded Gas HUF6
Gas didn't move much on the price chart; however RSI hooked lower today. This might be an early indication of a breakout tomorrow, so I'm looking to sell last week's low.

*SELL January Unleaded Gas at 153.65
*Stop 154.65
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $420 per contract
*Profit Target: 148.75
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2058 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

January Heating Oil HOF6
Our heating oil trade didn't get filled today as prices reinforced the support line. I'll run the weekend trade again tomorrow.

*SELL January Heating Oil at 177.85
*Stop 178.75
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $420 per contract
*Profit Target: 172.65
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2142 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

January Crude Oil CLF6
Crude should follow the other markets tomorrow; however the setup in this market isn't quite as promising as the other two so I'll hold off for now.

==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================

September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
The ED found our short order today as we sold the low of the day. I'm not too worried about it right now, but I would certainly like to see the breakout continue tomorrow! You can bring exit stops in above today's high.

December miniDOW YMZ5
The DOW is slowing down and will likely find resistance tomorrow. Given the recent rally I think a pullback would be in order.

December miniNAS NQZ5
Same thing for the NAS which has made an incredible run this last week!

December miniS&P ESZ5
And the S&P.

==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================

December Corn CZ5
Corn took a stab higher today which spiked the RSI indicator. We might be looking at a sell in a day or two if prices continue to push higher with these low closing prices.

December Oats OZ5
Big fade day in oats as the market tested the upper resistance trendline. We will likely see prices fall off a bit tomorrow.

January Rice RRF6
Rice has lost its trend and is totally indecisive right now. I suspect we'll see a testing of support before the next rally.

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
Soy meal took back last Friday's gains. Crazy market right now but I still like the upside.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
If bean oil wasn't so weak looking I'd consider selling it tomorrow. As it is I think nearby support might be a problem for the bears.

January Soybean SF6
You likely got stopped in beans today regardless of where you brought your stops. The market made a full reversal of last week's gains, and I hope you were able to walk away with at least some profit out of the deal.

December Wheat WZ5
I'm not quite sure what to make of wheat's session today, but I'll run the weekend trade again tomorrow.

*SELL December Wheat at 307 3/4
*Stop 310 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 298 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================

January Feeder Cattle FCF6
Feeders recovered slighly after Friday's big dip. I'm flat this market at the moment, but might get another buy or sell happening as we get closer to resistance.

December Live Cattle LCZ5
No surprise that cattle also gave us a bit of a recovery today after last Friday's big decline. Here too we need to get to more solid numbers before committing.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
I'm thinking about buying hogs again, especially with the cute little channel that formed the last couple of sessions. I'm going to hold off tomorrow...hope I don't regret it.

==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================

December Copper HGZ5
Copper's running away again. We'll probably see a lower session tomorrow, but the levels we're trading at make me a little nervous!

December Gold GCZ5
Gold's still undecided as evidenced by the sideways channel. We could bracket this and trade the breakout, but I'm holding off for another day.

December Silver SIZ5
The silver trade is working out pretty well so far. The market made some nice gains today, but the RSI hook and the low close don't look good for tomorrow. The *ideal* stop placement is breakeven, but I'm jamming mine below the close/low to try and take some money out of the trade.

I might even check in during the night and see how things are progressing.

==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================

December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa fell off today, but came up short of our entry. I'll run the sell order again tomorrow, but I'm adjusting it a bit for today's session.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1337
*Stop 1357
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1237
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1000 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

December Coffee KCZ5
I don't think anyone saw this one coming as coffee prices tanked today! No problemo though, as our buy order was never threatened by the market. Nothing new here tomorrow.

December Cotton CTZ5
Cotton hiccupped today and probably found your exit stop. Good news is we're walking with profit. The bad news is that our stops might have been a little too far away and as such we gave up some profit.

January OJ OJF6
OJ's getting close to another buy/sell as prices have been channelling for the last few sessions. Just watching tomorrow.

March Sugar SBH6
There goes sugar! It's unlikely that we'll see another day like this tomorrow so I'll hold off, wait for resistance and then buy it.

========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, November 15, 2005
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=126 HI=131 LO=101 CL=110

We opened selling 27 and were stopped out at 23 for 5, $156. We tapped on 25 three times which I thought was good reason to get short again. I sold 23. Bonds went straight down from there hitting 11101. I moved the stop to 03 and they immediately stopped us there ... out at 03 for $625. I tried to buy at 11103 and couldn't get a fill. Done. The close at 11110 moves our sites to 11100 and 11116 for tomorrow.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.175 HI=.180 LO=.160 CL=.160

Nothing today. If we test .150 tomorrow and turn back north I risk a buy with a stop at 95.145. The numbers from weekend TT are still in play as well.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=09 HI=26 LO=61 CL=91

In weekend TT I wrote " ... We will sell a break of 8440 with a stop at 8409 ... " Obviously a typo. It should have read 8400, not 8440.

I sold 8395. We complted the rolls down to 8380. We touched 8360 and bounced hard. I exited at 8366 capturing $290. Later in the day we climbed back to 8400 and I sold 8396. I exited near close of the RTH at 8390 for $50. All the weekend TT numbers again tomorrow. We'll add a roll at 8360 as well.
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=40 HI=80 LO=94 CL=15

I bought 7626 and was stopped at 19 losing $87. I bought 26 again and again lost $87. Obviously we were totally on the wrong side of the trade. Selling each attempt to go above 7620 would have been the way to go today. No structure below kept us from being able to do that. Oh Well.

I'll stick with my weekend numbers even thought they were a fade today.
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=9.50 HI=0.30 LO=2.60 CL=7.00

We began the day selling attempting to sell the break of 670 without success. I sold the break of 688 at 667.60. It immediately told me I was wrong. Out at 668.00 losing $40. I tried to buy the break above 668 but couldn't get a number I'd take. I sold 667.50 and exited at 666.10 for $140. I bought 666.70 and exited at 666.50 dropping $20. Next I sold 664.60 and exited at 665.10 dropping $50. I sold 664.60 and exited at 50 for $10. I tried a couple of more times to sell 664.7050 and had no luck as th emarket was moving around without any clear direction. I threw in the towel. Never got a feel for it today. Ugly day here. Made $40 on the day. Pitiful.

All the numbers tomorrow
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=9.80 HI=0.60 LO=7.50 CL=9.10

We finally got a confirm about 11:30 CST. I sold 468.70. I got stopped at 469.20 on my B/E stop for a loss of $50. 460 and the $10 channel tomorrow.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.80 HI=.29 LO=.61 CL=.89

I bought 51.05 and was stopped out at 51.00 losing $25. I sold 50.95. I was a bit slow responding to my alarm. By the time I flipped back over to the chart intending to roll my stop to 73 or so we were already past it moving north. They filled me at 85 so we made $50.

All the same TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
8: MARCH COCOA
========================================================
COH6 O=50 HI=58 LO=44 CL=51

Tomorrow is FND in Dec Cocoa so we'll roll out to the March 06 contract. It's trading about 25 points higher than was December. 1350 occupies roughly the same chart position as does 1320 on the Dec but not nearly as much structure to consider. I'm going to sit and observe thru the roll process. I'll look at it each night and absorb the info but I doubt we'll do any trades until maybe Thursday at the earliest.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=1.96 1/4 HI=1.99 1/2 LO=1.96 CL=1.96 3/4

My goodness ... what's this ... a bounce! I'm an observer until 2.02 1/2
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.12 1/2 HI=3.15 LO=3.10 1/4 CL=3.11 3/4

I'd have bought on these numbers today at the retest of 3.10 but the way the price flow went I couldn't get a fill at less than 3.11 so I sat. Same numbers for tomorrow.

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part One


Support and Resistance Trading

Need help with Entries, Exits
and Trade Management? Read on!


Don't get left behind!


This is only Part
One
of a two part publication that is broadcast each Sunday.
Watch for Part Two!

There are also two daily trade follow ups
every trading day
, one each from Erich
and Tom, to

keep you abreast of what they see happening and what they're doing
in the markets.



















































































E-zine and Paper
Trades for the week 11-13-2005 - Part One















In This Issue- Part One


1. Member Links

2. Shootin' the Breeze

3. The Markets

4. Pick of
the Letter

5. Lesson du Jour

6. Score Card

7. Homework

8.
The Legal Stuff




In This Issue- Part Two


1. Opening Comments

2. New Trades

3. Tom's Education Page

4. Asher's Daily Trading
ranges

5. The Commercial Stuff




Members with Track 'n Trade:



D
ownload Erich's Chartbook for this week


The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
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You will find a link to the Daily Updates in the Table of Contents.



NOTE: If you bookmark this page you will be able to access the ezine each
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password to do so.



HotComm class as usual on Wednesday night at 9pm EST. Relay3:MarketMover.
See you Wednesday night!


There is

a mini tutorial

on this page
which should help answer most of your questions about
using hotComm. Jeff S. is recording the webinars whenever possible for
those who can't attend, so watch the

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thanks to Jeff S.!



http://www.supportandresistance.com/futures-trading-classes.html


 


Shooting the Breeze!





It's hard to believe that it's only a week before we leave for Mexico and
two week's until our daughter's wedding. I'm starting to get excited about
the trip too and it shows. I'm walking around the house with a silly grin on
my face that is driving my wife crazy. I've always looked forward to going,
but now I'm starting to get real excited! It seems like it's been an awfully
long time since I walked a sandy beach, and with the weather at home
becoming more and more winter like, this "vacation" is coming none too soon
for me.



I've never been to the Mexican Riviera so it will be fun to explore the
towns and tourist traps; however what I'm really looking forward to is the
food! I love everything about Mexican food (even the stuff I don't pronounce
very well), and the resort we're staying at has five different restaurants
and bars...and I'm determined to become very familiar with all of them. You
just can't seem to get decent huevos rancheros in Canada...like that should
surprise anyone.



I'm going to be taking my laptop with me, but I'm not sure how much I'll be
able to stay in touch. I'm going to try to produce one more ezine (for next
weekend) before I go and maybe even get a few nightly updates done; however
in the event that I'm cut off from the rest of the internet world I just
want you to know that we will EXTEND your subscription the time that I'm
away.



Of course Tom will continue to produce his materials, but I want to make
sure you get your money's worth every month and just wanted to make you
aware of that.



While I have you this would also be a good time to mention that there will
be no webinar for November 30th as Tom has a function he has to attend and I
won't be returning until December 4th.



Enjoy this week’s issue,



Erich



[email protected]

 


Currencies





Currencies Market Overview



The EuroFX came through for us in a big way last week as the market found
our first profit target before falling off again. My only regret in this
market is that I might have waited too long before re-establishing another
short position. Hopefully the market won't run away too far before giving us
another chance to sell it.



The currency complex continues to look promising this week after a bit of a
choppy week last week. The best thing about the currencies is their ability
to trend for long periods of time. Many of the currency markets look to be
gaining momentum in their trends, and as such offer us some of the better
trading opportunities this week.



I got my schedule a little screwed up with the Veteran's Day holiday and
thought the currencies were trading on Friday, they were not, so some of the
trades that we initially planned for Friday will be run on Monday instead.



Australian Dollar



The Aussie spent most of last week in consolidation as rates rebounded from
the previous week's decline. By the end of the week however we saw the
market confirm resistance when Friday's session traded lower. While Friday
traded slightly lower than the rest of the week, it is still in the 7290 –
7300 support area which is our trigger for this week.



There's nothing fancy about this particular trade, it is a simple breakout
trade through the support at 7300. Notice that the support varies from 7285
to 7296, but all this is essentially a reaction to the support at 7300, so
we will plan our trade to enter and exit on either side of the 7300 line.



I will do this occasionally in a market that is exhibiting a strong line of
support (resistance); however it doesn't have a hold lot of other resistance
nearby to bring into the trade to use as alternate entries or for stop
placement. The key to this type of trade is to not frame it too tight and to
give the market ample room on either side of the resistance.



In the Aussie's case I'm allowing about an extra 10 ticks in either
direction. Hopefully this will be enough to keep us on the right side of the
market without leaving too much money at risk. First profit target is the
support at 7150 which is a long term target, but be wary of possible support
at 7200 on the way down.



SELL December Australian Dollar at 7277

Stop 7311

Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract

Profit Target: 7157

Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract

RRR: 3 1/2:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH





The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




Japanese Yen



The Japanese Yen is actually giving us a very similar setup as what we just
saw in the Aussie Dollar. Here too the market rebounded slightly last week
only to fall back to support at 8500 before the weekend, thereby confirming
resistance. This also brings us to a situation where a breakout through
support should send the market lower to the next support level. The Yen,
like the Aussie, is also building strength in the trend which is what we
like to see in market's we're trading.



Like the Aussie the resistance around the 8500 support line is too far away
to bring into the sell equation; therefore we will need to play the 8500
solo and place our entries and exits on either side of the resistance. Again
I'm placing entry and exit about an extra 10 ticks away from the 8500. In
the case of the entry I'm actually placing the sell order 10 ticks lower
than the lowest low of the 8500 support zone. Hopefully it will be far
enough away to keep us out of a bad trade and/or whipsaw.



First profit target is weekly support at 8350 which would be followed by
support at 8300 – 8230. We're getting to some pretty significant support
areas however, and a bounce might be likely.



SELL December Japanese Yen at 8477

Exit Order: 8507

Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract

Profit Target: 8357

Approximate Profit Potential: $1500 per contract

RRR: 4:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH




Mexican Peso



The Mexican Peso is showing increasing strength to the upside as the market
broke through the top of the trading range last week. After initially
stalling at the resistance at 93000 we bought the market long last Thursday
when rates broke above the resistance. We gave the market a little extra
room before placing the buy order, so the added momentum and high close are
encouraging for our long positions.



There isn't too much that we can do with the exit stops at the moment
however. The last session closed too close to our entry to make tightening
the stop feasible; therefore you'll probably have to leave the stop where it
is for one more session, after which we will hopefully be able to adjust it
at least to breakeven.



The first profit target is weekly resistance at 94600 (adjusted); however
I'm pushing the envelope a bit and trying to trade the Peso to the next
resistance line at 95000. If the trend continues to build strength it should
be a reasonable target for the market to achieve.



Continuation of Long December Mexican Peso from 93.125

Exit Order: 92.675

Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract

Profit Target: 94.925

Approximate Potential Profit: $900 per contract

RRR: 4:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH





The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




Swiss Franc



The Swiss Franc mirrored the EuroFX last week; however the numbers weren't
quite as "crisp" so we only trade one of the markets. This week the Swissy
is the market which is looking a little more tradable, at least in respect
to keeping the risk to a reasonable level.



I'm actually taking some information from the EC market to influence my
decision about trading the Swiss. The EC's trend looks to be stronger than
the Swiss, but knowing that the two markets move in sync (almost 100%) I'll
borrow this for my Swiss trade. You'll also notice that the December EC
broke support last week, whereas the Swiss Franc did not. This might be a
"tip off" from one market as to what is likely to happen in another. It's
not foolproof, but it does require some consideration.



The only problem with the SF's trade is the market's proximity to the 7600
line. 7600 has the potential to act as support, especially when you consider
this level in the light of the long term charts as well. Therefore I'll look
to enter the market on the other side of 7600 and cover the trade at the
messy support from last week around 7626.



First profit target is the weekly support at 7400, but remember that with
the currencies we could see support at 50 point intervals, so there could be
support at 7550, 7500 and 7450 before we finally reach our target. This is
why it's important to find a market with a reasonably strong trend to trade.



SELL December Swiss Franc at 7597

Exit Order: 7631

Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract

Profit Target: 7411

Approximate Potential Profit: $2325 per contract

RRR: 5:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH






The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




US Dollar Index



As you probably guessed, with all these currency trades there would likely
be a trade in the USD as it is the driving force behind many of these
markets. Foreign currencies have an inverse relationship with the US Dollar
and will react in response to what is happening with it. Since many of the
foreign currencies closely linked with the USD look to be in a position to
fall off this week, the Greenback is looking pretty strong and would be a
buy above nearby resistance.



The resistance at 9200 was reinforced by the end of the week. This is our
trigger resistance line which we will use to buy the market long this week.
Because of the huge ranges which the currencies are capable of, we will give
the USD a little extra room before placing the buy order. I'm holding off
buying until we see 9217, which should be far enough away to avoid a bad
fill. My exit stops are going on the other side of 9200, which is now acting
as support, at 9183. This will have $340 at risk – not bad for this market.



First profit target is weekly resistance at 9350, which, admittedly, is a
bit of a reach. There is resistance at 9250 which could bring a quick end to
our rally, but I'm hoping to get the trade to breakeven before then. The
trend is building, so if the trend continues, the nearby resistance will
have to give way to allow the market higher.



BUY December US Dollar Index at 9217

Exit Order: 9183

Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract

Profit Target: 9347

Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract

RRR: 3 1/2:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH






The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Energies





Energies Market Overview



The Energy markets were particularly generous last week, especially unleaded
gas which found our profit target before the weekend. Whether you took
profit early at 155 or held out for the 154 support, you would have been
able to put a big chunk of change into your account as a result. Since 154
is a significant looking support area on the January Gas chart we might see
prices bounce a little this week before trying to fall off again. RSI is
nearing a testpoint which should give us our next selling signal.



The pending RSI test is the primary reason I've been holding off selling
heating oil. While I did try to catch an early move last week, that didn't
work out too well, the market is clearly showing us support at 178.50. The
support levels combined with the low closing prices are almost too much to
pass up this week. If I do take another heating oil trade it will be well
short of current support however, in an attempt to avoid another whipsaw.



Crude fell off last week unfortunately prices gapped our entry putting us on
the sidelines for this market. Crude has a tendency to fall for about three
sessions before finding support and recovering a bit. If this pattern holds
this week we won't have too long to wait before finding another place to
sell from.



Heating Oil



Heating oil gave us a pretty nice looking line of support at 178.50 to close
out last week. There is nearby resistance at 179.70 – 178.00 that I thought
about using for exit stops on a 178.50 entry; however given that RSI looks
like it still has a way to go before giving us our testpoint, I thought it
would be better to short the 178 line and use 178.50's resistance to cover
the trade.



Even with a break of 178 I'll probably reserve my sell order until we see
price trade at 177.85. I might be a little overly cautious, but these ranges
are well within heating oil's daily grasp, so a whipsaw is a constant
possibility. Covering the trade on the other side of 178.50 I would also try
to allow a few extra ticks and try to place the exit order as far away as
possible. Oddly enough there isn't any resistance at 179, most of it seems
to occur in the high 178's; therefore I'll use 178.75 as my exit order.



First profit target is the "neckline" of a smallish rounded top formation
which would form if prices continue lower to the 172.50 line. I will plan to
take profit at 172.65 which should put a little over $2100 in profit into
our account, if all goes well.



SELL January Heating Oil at 177.85

Exit Order: 178.75

Approximate Risk Exposure: $420 per contract

Profit Target: 172.65

Approximate Potential Profit: $2142 per contract

RRR: 5:1

Degree of Risk: HIGH




The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Financials / Indices




Financials/Indices Market Overview



The Financial markets were pretty flat last week as the Eurodollar spent
most of its time consolidating its ranges into a bit of a channel formation.
That's not at all unusual for the ED as this market likes to gather itself a
bit after making a sustained move in one direction (or another). This pause
in the trend is just what we needed to put on another sell position this
week.



The Indices went wild last week, rallying right into the weekend.
Unfortunately we got stopped out of our long Dow trade just before the
market took off, but the market was looking very indecisive, so I'm not too
disappointed that we walked off with a profit. The rest of the indices will
have to wait however until we see some resistance before we consider trading
them again. Trying to enter them when they are moving so quickly (and
unpredictably) is just too difficult. The good news is that the trends seem
to be getting stronger and as such we might expect to be in a buying
position for some time.



Eurodollar



The Eurodollar is giving us a couple of options to trade it this week. The
first option is to continue to look to sell below the 9501 low. The
advantage of this is that we would make the market break the 9500 support
before getting into the trade. A more aggressive posture is to sell the
market below the support that has formed at 9503 – 9504 instead. While this
does make the trade a little more risky, and earlier entry would allow us to
adjust our stops sooner if the trade when in our favour.



If we sold a break of 9503 I would consider covering the trade if rates
traded above the intermediate resistance at 9510. This would have a little
over $200 in risk per contract. The first profit target remains the longer
term support at 9450; however I do anticipate a reaction as rates approach
the 9475 support zone as well, so you'll want to be ready for that. The good
news is that the ED normally trends extremely well, so if you ever
considered trailing a stop, this would be the market to do it in.



SELL September Eurodollar at 95.025

Exit Order: 95.110

Approximate Risk Exposure: $212 per contract

Profit Target: 94.535

Approximate Potential Profit: $1225 per contract

RRR: 5 1/2:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate




The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Grains



Grains Market Overview



The grain markets continue to be pretty lacklustre for the most part. This
is primarily due to the weak trends in many of the grains right now. In fact
out of the whole complex only four markets are exhibiting any kind of trend
at all while the others are merely chopping about. As you know it is much
more difficult to trade a choppy market which is why we try to avoid them as
much as possible.



Corn continues to struggle with long term support, and by the end of last
week prices took a bit of a bullish turn. I don't know if this will last,
and it might be a touch early, but I know a lot of traders are looking for a
reason, any reason, to buy corn higher. Oats are still lost as the market
struggles between support at 158 and resistance at 169. Until we see the
market move to either side of those resistance barriers there probably isn't
too much to trade there. Rice was looking stronger on the last rally;
however since the market fell back to the 750 support it has been slow to
recover. The same is true for bean oil which is alternating bullish days and
bearish ones.



By comparison, wheat, soybeans and soy meal are the only grain markets
showing us any strength of trend. We caught the bean trade last Friday and
wheat is a good setup for this week; however soy meal slipped past us so we
need to wait for another chance to buy this market.



Soybeans



Soybeans gave us a beautiful fill last week as prices easily broke the 592
resistance. In fact the session was almost too good because it didn't give
us a lot of intraday resistance to use as support to protect our position.
Adjusting your exit stops in this trade will be difficult because the market
seems to making some significant gains to the upside, and it looks as though
it could be a substantial move; however beans are temperamental and could
give us a big bounce stopping us out with little or no profit at all.



At the very least you will want to bring your trade to breakeven for Monday.
If you're goal is to ride beans as far as you can, then this should be your
stop placement. If you are trying to give beans a little elbow room but
wanting to protect a little profit as well, then you might consider the 595
intraday and daily resistance area to put your stops below. There is more
intraday resistance at 599; however this might be pressing the trade a
little too tight – unless your objective is to protect as much accumulated
profit as possible.



The first profit target continues to be resistance at 610, as that is the
line in the sand for the bears to recover the market from. If prices
continue above here, and I think they will, then the next resistance, and
more likely target, is the resistance at 620. Note that this resistance
level is also near the 38% retracement line, and a likely area for a bounce.



Continuation of Long January Soybeans from 592 3/4

Exit Order: breakeven (or tighter)

Approximate Risk Exposure: $0

Profit Target: 610 3/4 (followed by 619 3/4)

Approximate Potential Profit: $900 per contract

RRR: n/a

Degree of Risk: Moderate




The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




Wheat



Even though wheat spent most of last week going sideways, the market is
still in a strong downtrend. While the rally going on in some of the other
grains might spill over into the wheat market, for the time being I will
continue to look at selling the market short. If we do see wheat rally I'm
confident that the resistance at 318 will hold prices back long enough for
us to take a position.



In the meantime however, a break below the low at 310 support deserves to be
sold. Given the choppy nature of the markets lately I'll look to sell the
308 ¾ low from the week before. In fact I'll give the market a full cent
before placing the sell order and will use the 310 resistance to cover the
trade. The first profit target is the long term support in the 297 – 298
region for a potential profit of just under $500 per contract. Wheat does
have some room to move down here, but if the other grain markets begin
trading higher it will be difficult for wheat to move lower on its own.



SELL December Wheat at 307 3/4

Exit Order: 310 3/4

Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract

Profit Target: 298 1/4

Approximate Potential Profit: $475 per contract

RRR: 3:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate





The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Meats




Meats Market Overview



The Cattle markets finally seem to have put in a high as both Feeders and
Live Cattle fell sharply last Friday. Go figure that after all this time
looking for these markets to put in a top I finally decide to buy them long,
and that's when they stall out. Isn't that always the way?



I'm not going to be too hasty to sell either market however. While I think
we might be seeing a top in both Feeders and Live Cattle are likely to give
us a bit of a recovery to Friday's decline before continuing lower. This
show if new support will help us define exactly where we want to sell the
market from.



Hogs had a wishy-washy week last week as prices consolidated a bit after the
previous week's rally. Technically we are still in an uptrend, and we should
be looking to buy the market higher; however the resistance at 6450 is
substantial and continues to hold the market down. If we see a higher
session which brings us back to the 6450 neighbourhood, then I'll look at
buying the market higher again, but until then I'm on hold.



FLAT Meat Complex



The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Metals




Metals Market Overview



After floundering around for several weeks, copper finally made a move
before the weekend and broke through the top side of the resistance zone
that had confined prices for several weeks. Quite frankly this rally
astounds me as copper is already trading at historically high levels –
substantially higher levels to be precise. While a market making new highs
is not as easy to corner as a market trading near the bottom of its price
ranges, it is nevertheless natural to look for a top and a reversal.



I'm not a top (or bottom) picker but it does make me nervous to buy a market
where I have absolutely no resistance numbers to use as profit targets. The
best we can do is "project" a profit target for these markets, and that's a
guesstimate at best. However copper's trend remains incredibly strong, so if
we see some resistance, which we should very soon, I might try buying the
market higher.



In spite of substantial gains by the USD last week, the gold market seems
flat by comparison. While gold is technically bullish, the market really is
lacking any momentum behind its trend. This choppiness will probably
continue until we see the USD really commit to a direction, which should
either spur gold higher, or kill it entirely.



We are long silver from 771 as prices easily broke the 770 resistance last
week and rallied higher. Thursday's session, which filled our order, was
very strong and looked as through prices would continue to rally on Friday,
but they didn't. Instead the market held up on the 779 highs forming some
resistance there.



Silver



We bought silver last week off an RSI test as the market broke through and
traded higher. While silver is technically in an uptrend the RSI breakout
was weak and the strength of the trend didn't increase much according to ADX
either. This makes me a little suspicious of our chances to ride the trade
higher this week.



As such I will bring exit stops just below Friday's low in case we see a
reversal. Of course you could bring the trade to breakeven, but that would
leave exit stops within the previous day's range which might make you more
susceptible to getting whipsawed. First profit target is 792, but I might
consider tightening the target to 788 if prices don't being looking stronger
this week.



Continuation of Long December Silver from 771

Exit Order: 768

Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract

Profit Target: 792

Approximate Potential Profit: $1050 per contract

RRR: 7:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate






The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.

Softs




Softs Market Overview



The Softs continued to give us a nice mix of trading opportunities last
week. The nice thing about the softs is that none of the markets are really
related to the other; therefore you get a lot of independent movement.
Unlike the grains, meats or metals which have a tendency to move together,
you can almost always find something to trade in the soft complex.



This week we have a couple of new markets showing some potential, in
particular cocoa and coffee.



Cocoa



It looks as though cocoa's seasonal rally never came this year, which is
exactly why it is so difficult to trade a market according to the seasonal
tendencies. While it is useful to know what a market might do under "normal"
conditions, all too often the market conditions are anything but normal, as
was the case with cocoa.



The only good thing is that the seasonals might have prevented the market
from taking off on us. Cocoa's ranges have been rather subdued the last few
weeks but now it looks as though the market is ready to resume the
downtrend, especially in light of Friday's quick decline.



I considered giving cocoa a little extra room and sell it below 1340;
however there is still some long term support at 1320 which could be a
stumbling block, so I decided to enter earlier with the intention of
bringing stops to breakeven as quickly as possible. Initial stop placement
will go just above Friday's high at 1365 where there is a bit of daily
resistance as well. Risk exposure is approximately $240 per contract.



First profit target is long term support at 1230 (adjusted); however there
is some support along the way here that could make things a little bumpy for
our trade, but the trend seems to be gaining strength so hopefully we will
get through this area without too much trouble.



SELL March Cocoa at 1343

Exit Order: 1367

Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract

Profit Target: 1237

Approximate Potential Profit: $1060 per contract

RRR: 4:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate




The charts
in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




Coffee



While I normally don't trade coffee because of this market's incredibly huge
ranges, every once in a while we get a good setup, and this week might be
one of those times. It is vitally important that any coffee trade have a
strong breakout otherwise a whipsaw is almost assured. A strong breakout and
strong trend normally go hand in hand, and in coffee we have a reasonably
strong bull trend in the works right now.



What makes this trade interesting is that for the better part of last week
coffee has been in pullback mode as prices bounce off the 108.50. While no
one knows for sure when the market will reverse and continue with the trend,
the ranges are such that we can put together a trade to buy the market above
last week's resistance. This way we can be ready for the eventual reversal
if/when it happens.



It's a little bit tight, but I'll look to buy coffee at 108.80, 30 ticks
above the 108.50 resistance. This still might bring a reaction from the 109
area, but allowing too much more will give us an exorbitant amount of risk
on this trade. As it is we are risking over $400 by covering the trade at
the 107.65 line. 107.60 is the resistance prices formed toward the end of
last week, and while 106.70 would have been a better choice, it once again
brings too much money into the trade equation.



First profit target is resistance at 113 which would be the neckline of a
small rounded bottom formation. It is customary to see a reaction off the
neckline of such resistance so I would probably consider taking profit on
target and look to re-enter if prices continued higher.



BUY December Coffee at 108.80

Exit Order: 107.65

Approximate Risk Exposure: $431 per contract

Profit Target: 112.90

Approximate Potential Profit: $1537 per contract

RRR: 3 1/2:1

Degree of Risk: HIGH





The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Pick of the Letter




Pick #3 – SELL December Australian Dollar



There are a couple of currency markets we could trade this week but I'm
choosing the Aussie primarily because of the trend. Hopefully the market
won't gap our order if rates continue to decline.



Pick #2 – SELL March Cocoa



The seasonals did little to push cocoa prices higher this year and last
Friday saw a rather dramatic decline in prices which would make it appear
that the market is ready to resume with the downtrend.



Pick #1 – SELL September Eurodollar



You could be more cautious and sell the break of 9500, or take the plunge
early and sell a break of support at 9503, but regardless of where you get
in, if we get a decent move lower then the ED is likely to continue with the
downtrend.

 

The Score Card




The purpose of this section is to give you a feel for which markets might be
worth trading and which you might pass on given your own set of
circumstances. The figures quoted are based on the price levels outlined in
the ezine, trading single contracts and do not accurately account for
slippage, commissions or other trading related fees.
The Score Card is updated monthly.

Summary for the Month of
October 2005
































































































































































































































































































































Date

Pos.

Market

In

Out

Profit/Loss

October 4-5

Sell


December Crude


6465


6395

700 profit


October 4-10

Buy


November Rice


732


732

0


October 4-5

Buy


October Cattle


8962


9047

340 profit


October 5-6

Sell


December mini-Dow


10417


10271


730 profit


October 5-6

Sell


December mini-NAS

1597.5


1566.5


620 profit


October 5

Sell


December mini-S&P

1213.5


1200


675 profit


October 6-10

Buy


December Silver


752.5


779.5

1350 profit


October 6

Buy

December Cotton


5463


5413

250 loss

October 7-13

Sell



December Cocoa


1367


1367

0


October 10

Sell

December Unleaded Gas

176.85

178.05

504 loss

October 11-14

Sell

December Japanese Yen

8827

8801

325 profit

October 11-13

Sell

December mini-NAS

1547.5

1537

210 profit

October 11-13

Buy

December Wheat

344 ¼

344 ¼

0

October 11-12

Buy

December Gold

480.5

477

350 loss

October 12-13

Buy

December Canadian $ 

8563

8530

330 loss

October 12

Sell

December mini-Dow

10237

10277

200 loss

October 12-14

Buy

December Oats

168 ¼

169 ¾

75 profit

October 12-17

Buy

December Soy Meal

170.1

175.7

560 profit

October 13-14

Buy

December Cattle

9192

9137

220 loss

October 14-17

Buy

December Swiss Franc

7843

7783

750 loss

October 14-17

Sell

December US Dollar

8927

8957

300 loss

Oct 14-Nov 1

Sell

December Corn

201 ¼

198 ¼

150 profit

October 17-19

Sell

December Crude

6215

6265

500 loss

October 19

Sell

December Heating Oil

193.90

195.1

504 loss

October 20

Sell

December Unleaded Gas

166.45

162.30

1743 profit

October 21-24

Sell

December Japanese Yen

8679

8707

350 loss

October 24-25

Buy

December Oats

167 ¾

166 ¼

75 loss

October 21 -25

Sell

December Cattle

8967

9032

260 loss

October 26 – 28

Buy

December Cocoa

1421

1407

140 loss

October 27

Sell

December Unleaded Gas

160.35

160.55

504 loss

October 27 – 28

Sell

December mini-Dow

10327

10285

210 profit

October 27 – 28

Sell

December mini-S&P

1189.50

1185.50

200 profit

October 27 – 28

Sell

December Lean Hogs

5967

6015

190 loss

Oct 28 – Nov 1

Buy

January OJ

118.65

117.85

120 loss

Oct 31 – Nov 4

Sell

December Australian $

7467

7337

1300 profit

Oct 31 – Nov 1

Sell

December Canadian $

8487

8501

140 loss

Oct 31 – Nov 8

Sell

September Eurodollar

95.135

95.115

50 profit
     
Gross Profit $9038 per contract

Gross Loss $5687 per contract

Net profit: $3351 per contract

 before commissions and fees!



* NOTE!!! Trading commodities is
RISKY!!!! These figures are estimates in the interests of tracking the
trades. Erich may or may not have a real money position in any market
covered at any given time. This Score Card does NOT apply to Tom's Trades.
This is neither a solicitation to trade nor a recommendation of any
strategy. Always consult your broker or advisor before attempting any trade.
Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss. See full disclaimers at
the bottom of this email.

 


Lesson du jour -





Question:



I am a little confused on the stop loss issue: if I buy one contract of
"whatever" using a stop order would I also place my stop loss at the same
time? My thinking is that a stop loss is to get me out of a trade if it goes
against me so I don't eat up all of my account, is that correct?



Answer



Whenever you plan the entry of your trade you always need to plan for a stop
loss as well. You NEVER want to have an open position without a stop loss of
some kind. Obviously you want the stop loss order initiated after your
buy/sell order is filled, not before. It would be worth your while to find a
good broker to help you with the technical part of placing the order. Check
the reference section at the end of the newsletter for some broker
recommendations if you don't already have one of your own.



Personally, I usually let my broker worry about this technical stuff; after
all that's what I'm paying him for. To me it is worth a few extra dollars to
make sure my order is placed correctly than to save a couple of bucks only
to find myself in an order I didn't want!



You are absolutely correct about your stop loss statements. Stop losses are
there to protect you in the event that the market moves against you in an
unpredicted manner. If this happens it is usually a good indication that it
is time to leave.



Stop loss placement is a bit of an art form and requires some practice. The
good news is you can gain a feel for it through paper trading. As a rule of
thumb, the further back your stop is, the longer you can stay in a market;
however, this of course leaves more of your money at risk as well.



Some people will disagree with me, but I think most newbie's with small
trading accounts, would do better to place profit targets, rather than
trailing stop losses. What this means is that as you examine your chart,
determine where you think the market will go before reversing, and place an
order to exit the market slightly before that point. If the market continues
past your predetermined exit you can always re-enter the market; but in the
meantime you will have banked your profits to date, and it doesn't take long
for those smaller profits to begin adding up to a bigger account.



Erich



Got a question that needs answering like an itch you can’t scratch? Send it
along to
[email protected]
and I’ll be happy to try and clear
things up for you.

PLEASE
DON'T FORGET! No homework until I come back from the wedding. Enjoy your
time off!


 






















Futures Trading is Risky! Never trade
with money you cannot afford to lose!



Nothing in this publication is either a solicitation to trade
or a recommendation of any strategy. Always consult your broker or advisor
before attempting any trade. Commodity trading involves substantial risk of
loss.


THE DATA CONTAINED HERE IN ARE BELIEVED
TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY OR
COMPLETENESS; AND AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. TRADERS
HELPING TRADERS AND IT'S ASSOCIATES WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING
WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED
HEREIN.


DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN
TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE
RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE
INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER
THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A
FUTURES POSITION.


NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY
ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE
SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY
PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.


HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.


ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL
RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE
IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO
WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF
TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS,
IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH
CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING
RESULTS.

 


Traders Helping
Traders




Traders Helping Traders Publications, including this one, are all copyright
Traders Helping Traders, all rights reserved. You may not re-distribute
this publication without the permission of the owners.


Click here
for licensing information.


 -
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-

204 Cowichan Avenue East, P.O.Box 157, Lake Cowichan, BC, V0R 2G0.

Phone: 250.749.4191

 


Part Two of this
publication with
Tom's Trades
to follow shortly.


Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part One


Support and Resistance Trading

Need help with Entries, Exits
and Trade Management? Read on!


Don't get left behind!


This is only Part
One
of a two part publication that is broadcast each Sunday.
Watch for Part Two!

There are also two daily trade follow ups
every trading day
, one each from Erich
and Tom, to

keep you abreast of what they see happening and what they're doing
in the markets.



















































































E-zine and Paper
Trades for the week 11-13-2005 - Part One















In This Issue- Part One


1. Member Links

2. Shootin' the Breeze

3. The Markets

4. Pick of
the Letter

5. Lesson du Jour

6. Score Card

7. Homework

8.
The Legal Stuff




In This Issue- Part Two


1. Opening Comments

2. New Trades

3. Tom's Education Page

4. Asher's Daily Trading
ranges

5. The Commercial Stuff




Members with Track 'n Trade:



D
ownload Erich's Chartbook for this week


The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


 





Member Links




Member Log-In:


http://www.supportandresistance.com/THT/members/toc.html


You will find a link to the Daily Updates in the Table of Contents.



NOTE: If you bookmark this page you will be able to access the ezine each
week on the site before the mails go out. You will need your username and
password to do so.



HotComm class as usual on Wednesday night at 9pm EST. Relay3:MarketMover.
See you Wednesday night!


There is

a mini tutorial

on this page
which should help answer most of your questions about
using hotComm. Jeff S. is recording the webinars whenever possible for
those who can't attend, so watch the

Support and Resistance Forum
for links to view the movies. Grateful
thanks to Jeff S.!



http://www.supportandresistance.com/futures-trading-classes.html


 


Shooting the Breeze!





It's hard to believe that it's only a week before we leave for Mexico and
two week's until our daughter's wedding. I'm starting to get excited about
the trip too and it shows. I'm walking around the house with a silly grin on
my face that is driving my wife crazy. I've always looked forward to going,
but now I'm starting to get real excited! It seems like it's been an awfully
long time since I walked a sandy beach, and with the weather at home
becoming more and more winter like, this "vacation" is coming none too soon
for me.



I've never been to the Mexican Riviera so it will be fun to explore the
towns and tourist traps; however what I'm really looking forward to is the
food! I love everything about Mexican food (even the stuff I don't pronounce
very well), and the resort we're staying at has five different restaurants
and bars...and I'm determined to become very familiar with all of them. You
just can't seem to get decent huevos rancheros in Canada...like that should
surprise anyone.



I'm going to be taking my laptop with me, but I'm not sure how much I'll be
able to stay in touch. I'm going to try to produce one more ezine (for next
weekend) before I go and maybe even get a few nightly updates done; however
in the event that I'm cut off from the rest of the internet world I just
want you to know that we will EXTEND your subscription the time that I'm
away.



Of course Tom will continue to produce his materials, but I want to make
sure you get your money's worth every month and just wanted to make you
aware of that.



While I have you this would also be a good time to mention that there will
be no webinar for November 30th as Tom has a function he has to attend and I
won't be returning until December 4th.



Enjoy this week’s issue,



Erich



[email protected]

 


Currencies





Currencies Market Overview



The EuroFX came through for us in a big way last week as the market found
our first profit target before falling off again. My only regret in this
market is that I might have waited too long before re-establishing another
short position. Hopefully the market won't run away too far before giving us
another chance to sell it.



The currency complex continues to look promising this week after a bit of a
choppy week last week. The best thing about the currencies is their ability
to trend for long periods of time. Many of the currency markets look to be
gaining momentum in their trends, and as such offer us some of the better
trading opportunities this week.



I got my schedule a little screwed up with the Veteran's Day holiday and
thought the currencies were trading on Friday, they were not, so some of the
trades that we initially planned for Friday will be run on Monday instead.



Australian Dollar



The Aussie spent most of last week in consolidation as rates rebounded from
the previous week's decline. By the end of the week however we saw the
market confirm resistance when Friday's session traded lower. While Friday
traded slightly lower than the rest of the week, it is still in the 7290 –
7300 support area which is our trigger for this week.



There's nothing fancy about this particular trade, it is a simple breakout
trade through the support at 7300. Notice that the support varies from 7285
to 7296, but all this is essentially a reaction to the support at 7300, so
we will plan our trade to enter and exit on either side of the 7300 line.



I will do this occasionally in a market that is exhibiting a strong line of
support (resistance); however it doesn't have a hold lot of other resistance
nearby to bring into the trade to use as alternate entries or for stop
placement. The key to this type of trade is to not frame it too tight and to
give the market ample room on either side of the resistance.



In the Aussie's case I'm allowing about an extra 10 ticks in either
direction. Hopefully this will be enough to keep us on the right side of the
market without leaving too much money at risk. First profit target is the
support at 7150 which is a long term target, but be wary of possible support
at 7200 on the way down.



SELL December Australian Dollar at 7277

Stop 7311

Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract

Profit Target: 7157

Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract

RRR: 3 1/2:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH





The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




Japanese Yen



The Japanese Yen is actually giving us a very similar setup as what we just
saw in the Aussie Dollar. Here too the market rebounded slightly last week
only to fall back to support at 8500 before the weekend, thereby confirming
resistance. This also brings us to a situation where a breakout through
support should send the market lower to the next support level. The Yen,
like the Aussie, is also building strength in the trend which is what we
like to see in market's we're trading.



Like the Aussie the resistance around the 8500 support line is too far away
to bring into the sell equation; therefore we will need to play the 8500
solo and place our entries and exits on either side of the resistance. Again
I'm placing entry and exit about an extra 10 ticks away from the 8500. In
the case of the entry I'm actually placing the sell order 10 ticks lower
than the lowest low of the 8500 support zone. Hopefully it will be far
enough away to keep us out of a bad trade and/or whipsaw.



First profit target is weekly support at 8350 which would be followed by
support at 8300 – 8230. We're getting to some pretty significant support
areas however, and a bounce might be likely.



SELL December Japanese Yen at 8477

Exit Order: 8507

Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract

Profit Target: 8357

Approximate Profit Potential: $1500 per contract

RRR: 4:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH




Mexican Peso



The Mexican Peso is showing increasing strength to the upside as the market
broke through the top of the trading range last week. After initially
stalling at the resistance at 93000 we bought the market long last Thursday
when rates broke above the resistance. We gave the market a little extra
room before placing the buy order, so the added momentum and high close are
encouraging for our long positions.



There isn't too much that we can do with the exit stops at the moment
however. The last session closed too close to our entry to make tightening
the stop feasible; therefore you'll probably have to leave the stop where it
is for one more session, after which we will hopefully be able to adjust it
at least to breakeven.



The first profit target is weekly resistance at 94600 (adjusted); however
I'm pushing the envelope a bit and trying to trade the Peso to the next
resistance line at 95000. If the trend continues to build strength it should
be a reasonable target for the market to achieve.



Continuation of Long December Mexican Peso from 93.125

Exit Order: 92.675

Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract

Profit Target: 94.925

Approximate Potential Profit: $900 per contract

RRR: 4:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH





The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




Swiss Franc



The Swiss Franc mirrored the EuroFX last week; however the numbers weren't
quite as "crisp" so we only trade one of the markets. This week the Swissy
is the market which is looking a little more tradable, at least in respect
to keeping the risk to a reasonable level.



I'm actually taking some information from the EC market to influence my
decision about trading the Swiss. The EC's trend looks to be stronger than
the Swiss, but knowing that the two markets move in sync (almost 100%) I'll
borrow this for my Swiss trade. You'll also notice that the December EC
broke support last week, whereas the Swiss Franc did not. This might be a
"tip off" from one market as to what is likely to happen in another. It's
not foolproof, but it does require some consideration.



The only problem with the SF's trade is the market's proximity to the 7600
line. 7600 has the potential to act as support, especially when you consider
this level in the light of the long term charts as well. Therefore I'll look
to enter the market on the other side of 7600 and cover the trade at the
messy support from last week around 7626.



First profit target is the weekly support at 7400, but remember that with
the currencies we could see support at 50 point intervals, so there could be
support at 7550, 7500 and 7450 before we finally reach our target. This is
why it's important to find a market with a reasonably strong trend to trade.



SELL December Swiss Franc at 7597

Exit Order: 7631

Approximate Risk Exposure: $425 per contract

Profit Target: 7411

Approximate Potential Profit: $2325 per contract

RRR: 5:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH






The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




US Dollar Index



As you probably guessed, with all these currency trades there would likely
be a trade in the USD as it is the driving force behind many of these
markets. Foreign currencies have an inverse relationship with the US Dollar
and will react in response to what is happening with it. Since many of the
foreign currencies closely linked with the USD look to be in a position to
fall off this week, the Greenback is looking pretty strong and would be a
buy above nearby resistance.



The resistance at 9200 was reinforced by the end of the week. This is our
trigger resistance line which we will use to buy the market long this week.
Because of the huge ranges which the currencies are capable of, we will give
the USD a little extra room before placing the buy order. I'm holding off
buying until we see 9217, which should be far enough away to avoid a bad
fill. My exit stops are going on the other side of 9200, which is now acting
as support, at 9183. This will have $340 at risk – not bad for this market.



First profit target is weekly resistance at 9350, which, admittedly, is a
bit of a reach. There is resistance at 9250 which could bring a quick end to
our rally, but I'm hoping to get the trade to breakeven before then. The
trend is building, so if the trend continues, the nearby resistance will
have to give way to allow the market higher.



BUY December US Dollar Index at 9217

Exit Order: 9183

Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract

Profit Target: 9347

Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract

RRR: 3 1/2:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH






The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Energies





Energies Market Overview



The Energy markets were particularly generous last week, especially unleaded
gas which found our profit target before the weekend. Whether you took
profit early at 155 or held out for the 154 support, you would have been
able to put a big chunk of change into your account as a result. Since 154
is a significant looking support area on the January Gas chart we might see
prices bounce a little this week before trying to fall off again. RSI is
nearing a testpoint which should give us our next selling signal.



The pending RSI test is the primary reason I've been holding off selling
heating oil. While I did try to catch an early move last week, that didn't
work out too well, the market is clearly showing us support at 178.50. The
support levels combined with the low closing prices are almost too much to
pass up this week. If I do take another heating oil trade it will be well
short of current support however, in an attempt to avoid another whipsaw.



Crude fell off last week unfortunately prices gapped our entry putting us on
the sidelines for this market. Crude has a tendency to fall for about three
sessions before finding support and recovering a bit. If this pattern holds
this week we won't have too long to wait before finding another place to
sell from.



Heating Oil



Heating oil gave us a pretty nice looking line of support at 178.50 to close
out last week. There is nearby resistance at 179.70 – 178.00 that I thought
about using for exit stops on a 178.50 entry; however given that RSI looks
like it still has a way to go before giving us our testpoint, I thought it
would be better to short the 178 line and use 178.50's resistance to cover
the trade.



Even with a break of 178 I'll probably reserve my sell order until we see
price trade at 177.85. I might be a little overly cautious, but these ranges
are well within heating oil's daily grasp, so a whipsaw is a constant
possibility. Covering the trade on the other side of 178.50 I would also try
to allow a few extra ticks and try to place the exit order as far away as
possible. Oddly enough there isn't any resistance at 179, most of it seems
to occur in the high 178's; therefore I'll use 178.75 as my exit order.



First profit target is the "neckline" of a smallish rounded top formation
which would form if prices continue lower to the 172.50 line. I will plan to
take profit at 172.65 which should put a little over $2100 in profit into
our account, if all goes well.



SELL January Heating Oil at 177.85

Exit Order: 178.75

Approximate Risk Exposure: $420 per contract

Profit Target: 172.65

Approximate Potential Profit: $2142 per contract

RRR: 5:1

Degree of Risk: HIGH




The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Financials / Indices




Financials/Indices Market Overview



The Financial markets were pretty flat last week as the Eurodollar spent
most of its time consolidating its ranges into a bit of a channel formation.
That's not at all unusual for the ED as this market likes to gather itself a
bit after making a sustained move in one direction (or another). This pause
in the trend is just what we needed to put on another sell position this
week.



The Indices went wild last week, rallying right into the weekend.
Unfortunately we got stopped out of our long Dow trade just before the
market took off, but the market was looking very indecisive, so I'm not too
disappointed that we walked off with a profit. The rest of the indices will
have to wait however until we see some resistance before we consider trading
them again. Trying to enter them when they are moving so quickly (and
unpredictably) is just too difficult. The good news is that the trends seem
to be getting stronger and as such we might expect to be in a buying
position for some time.



Eurodollar



The Eurodollar is giving us a couple of options to trade it this week. The
first option is to continue to look to sell below the 9501 low. The
advantage of this is that we would make the market break the 9500 support
before getting into the trade. A more aggressive posture is to sell the
market below the support that has formed at 9503 – 9504 instead. While this
does make the trade a little more risky, and earlier entry would allow us to
adjust our stops sooner if the trade when in our favour.



If we sold a break of 9503 I would consider covering the trade if rates
traded above the intermediate resistance at 9510. This would have a little
over $200 in risk per contract. The first profit target remains the longer
term support at 9450; however I do anticipate a reaction as rates approach
the 9475 support zone as well, so you'll want to be ready for that. The good
news is that the ED normally trends extremely well, so if you ever
considered trailing a stop, this would be the market to do it in.



SELL September Eurodollar at 95.025

Exit Order: 95.110

Approximate Risk Exposure: $212 per contract

Profit Target: 94.535

Approximate Potential Profit: $1225 per contract

RRR: 5 1/2:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate




The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Grains



Grains Market Overview



The grain markets continue to be pretty lacklustre for the most part. This
is primarily due to the weak trends in many of the grains right now. In fact
out of the whole complex only four markets are exhibiting any kind of trend
at all while the others are merely chopping about. As you know it is much
more difficult to trade a choppy market which is why we try to avoid them as
much as possible.



Corn continues to struggle with long term support, and by the end of last
week prices took a bit of a bullish turn. I don't know if this will last,
and it might be a touch early, but I know a lot of traders are looking for a
reason, any reason, to buy corn higher. Oats are still lost as the market
struggles between support at 158 and resistance at 169. Until we see the
market move to either side of those resistance barriers there probably isn't
too much to trade there. Rice was looking stronger on the last rally;
however since the market fell back to the 750 support it has been slow to
recover. The same is true for bean oil which is alternating bullish days and
bearish ones.



By comparison, wheat, soybeans and soy meal are the only grain markets
showing us any strength of trend. We caught the bean trade last Friday and
wheat is a good setup for this week; however soy meal slipped past us so we
need to wait for another chance to buy this market.



Soybeans



Soybeans gave us a beautiful fill last week as prices easily broke the 592
resistance. In fact the session was almost too good because it didn't give
us a lot of intraday resistance to use as support to protect our position.
Adjusting your exit stops in this trade will be difficult because the market
seems to making some significant gains to the upside, and it looks as though
it could be a substantial move; however beans are temperamental and could
give us a big bounce stopping us out with little or no profit at all.



At the very least you will want to bring your trade to breakeven for Monday.
If you're goal is to ride beans as far as you can, then this should be your
stop placement. If you are trying to give beans a little elbow room but
wanting to protect a little profit as well, then you might consider the 595
intraday and daily resistance area to put your stops below. There is more
intraday resistance at 599; however this might be pressing the trade a
little too tight – unless your objective is to protect as much accumulated
profit as possible.



The first profit target continues to be resistance at 610, as that is the
line in the sand for the bears to recover the market from. If prices
continue above here, and I think they will, then the next resistance, and
more likely target, is the resistance at 620. Note that this resistance
level is also near the 38% retracement line, and a likely area for a bounce.



Continuation of Long January Soybeans from 592 3/4

Exit Order: breakeven (or tighter)

Approximate Risk Exposure: $0

Profit Target: 610 3/4 (followed by 619 3/4)

Approximate Potential Profit: $900 per contract

RRR: n/a

Degree of Risk: Moderate




The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




Wheat



Even though wheat spent most of last week going sideways, the market is
still in a strong downtrend. While the rally going on in some of the other
grains might spill over into the wheat market, for the time being I will
continue to look at selling the market short. If we do see wheat rally I'm
confident that the resistance at 318 will hold prices back long enough for
us to take a position.



In the meantime however, a break below the low at 310 support deserves to be
sold. Given the choppy nature of the markets lately I'll look to sell the
308 ¾ low from the week before. In fact I'll give the market a full cent
before placing the sell order and will use the 310 resistance to cover the
trade. The first profit target is the long term support in the 297 – 298
region for a potential profit of just under $500 per contract. Wheat does
have some room to move down here, but if the other grain markets begin
trading higher it will be difficult for wheat to move lower on its own.



SELL December Wheat at 307 3/4

Exit Order: 310 3/4

Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract

Profit Target: 298 1/4

Approximate Potential Profit: $475 per contract

RRR: 3:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate





The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Meats




Meats Market Overview



The Cattle markets finally seem to have put in a high as both Feeders and
Live Cattle fell sharply last Friday. Go figure that after all this time
looking for these markets to put in a top I finally decide to buy them long,
and that's when they stall out. Isn't that always the way?



I'm not going to be too hasty to sell either market however. While I think
we might be seeing a top in both Feeders and Live Cattle are likely to give
us a bit of a recovery to Friday's decline before continuing lower. This
show if new support will help us define exactly where we want to sell the
market from.



Hogs had a wishy-washy week last week as prices consolidated a bit after the
previous week's rally. Technically we are still in an uptrend, and we should
be looking to buy the market higher; however the resistance at 6450 is
substantial and continues to hold the market down. If we see a higher
session which brings us back to the 6450 neighbourhood, then I'll look at
buying the market higher again, but until then I'm on hold.



FLAT Meat Complex



The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Metals




Metals Market Overview



After floundering around for several weeks, copper finally made a move
before the weekend and broke through the top side of the resistance zone
that had confined prices for several weeks. Quite frankly this rally
astounds me as copper is already trading at historically high levels –
substantially higher levels to be precise. While a market making new highs
is not as easy to corner as a market trading near the bottom of its price
ranges, it is nevertheless natural to look for a top and a reversal.



I'm not a top (or bottom) picker but it does make me nervous to buy a market
where I have absolutely no resistance numbers to use as profit targets. The
best we can do is "project" a profit target for these markets, and that's a
guesstimate at best. However copper's trend remains incredibly strong, so if
we see some resistance, which we should very soon, I might try buying the
market higher.



In spite of substantial gains by the USD last week, the gold market seems
flat by comparison. While gold is technically bullish, the market really is
lacking any momentum behind its trend. This choppiness will probably
continue until we see the USD really commit to a direction, which should
either spur gold higher, or kill it entirely.



We are long silver from 771 as prices easily broke the 770 resistance last
week and rallied higher. Thursday's session, which filled our order, was
very strong and looked as through prices would continue to rally on Friday,
but they didn't. Instead the market held up on the 779 highs forming some
resistance there.



Silver



We bought silver last week off an RSI test as the market broke through and
traded higher. While silver is technically in an uptrend the RSI breakout
was weak and the strength of the trend didn't increase much according to ADX
either. This makes me a little suspicious of our chances to ride the trade
higher this week.



As such I will bring exit stops just below Friday's low in case we see a
reversal. Of course you could bring the trade to breakeven, but that would
leave exit stops within the previous day's range which might make you more
susceptible to getting whipsawed. First profit target is 792, but I might
consider tightening the target to 788 if prices don't being looking stronger
this week.



Continuation of Long December Silver from 771

Exit Order: 768

Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract

Profit Target: 792

Approximate Potential Profit: $1050 per contract

RRR: 7:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate






The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.

Softs




Softs Market Overview



The Softs continued to give us a nice mix of trading opportunities last
week. The nice thing about the softs is that none of the markets are really
related to the other; therefore you get a lot of independent movement.
Unlike the grains, meats or metals which have a tendency to move together,
you can almost always find something to trade in the soft complex.



This week we have a couple of new markets showing some potential, in
particular cocoa and coffee.



Cocoa



It looks as though cocoa's seasonal rally never came this year, which is
exactly why it is so difficult to trade a market according to the seasonal
tendencies. While it is useful to know what a market might do under "normal"
conditions, all too often the market conditions are anything but normal, as
was the case with cocoa.



The only good thing is that the seasonals might have prevented the market
from taking off on us. Cocoa's ranges have been rather subdued the last few
weeks but now it looks as though the market is ready to resume the
downtrend, especially in light of Friday's quick decline.



I considered giving cocoa a little extra room and sell it below 1340;
however there is still some long term support at 1320 which could be a
stumbling block, so I decided to enter earlier with the intention of
bringing stops to breakeven as quickly as possible. Initial stop placement
will go just above Friday's high at 1365 where there is a bit of daily
resistance as well. Risk exposure is approximately $240 per contract.



First profit target is long term support at 1230 (adjusted); however there
is some support along the way here that could make things a little bumpy for
our trade, but the trend seems to be gaining strength so hopefully we will
get through this area without too much trouble.



SELL March Cocoa at 1343

Exit Order: 1367

Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract

Profit Target: 1237

Approximate Potential Profit: $1060 per contract

RRR: 4:1

Degree of Risk: Moderate




The charts
in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.




Coffee



While I normally don't trade coffee because of this market's incredibly huge
ranges, every once in a while we get a good setup, and this week might be
one of those times. It is vitally important that any coffee trade have a
strong breakout otherwise a whipsaw is almost assured. A strong breakout and
strong trend normally go hand in hand, and in coffee we have a reasonably
strong bull trend in the works right now.



What makes this trade interesting is that for the better part of last week
coffee has been in pullback mode as prices bounce off the 108.50. While no
one knows for sure when the market will reverse and continue with the trend,
the ranges are such that we can put together a trade to buy the market above
last week's resistance. This way we can be ready for the eventual reversal
if/when it happens.



It's a little bit tight, but I'll look to buy coffee at 108.80, 30 ticks
above the 108.50 resistance. This still might bring a reaction from the 109
area, but allowing too much more will give us an exorbitant amount of risk
on this trade. As it is we are risking over $400 by covering the trade at
the 107.65 line. 107.60 is the resistance prices formed toward the end of
last week, and while 106.70 would have been a better choice, it once again
brings too much money into the trade equation.



First profit target is resistance at 113 which would be the neckline of a
small rounded bottom formation. It is customary to see a reaction off the
neckline of such resistance so I would probably consider taking profit on
target and look to re-enter if prices continued higher.



BUY December Coffee at 108.80

Exit Order: 107.65

Approximate Risk Exposure: $431 per contract

Profit Target: 112.90

Approximate Potential Profit: $1537 per contract

RRR: 3 1/2:1

Degree of Risk: HIGH





The charts in this publication
are all made using Gecko's Track 'n Trade charting software. You can get a
demo for free
here.


Pick of the Letter




Pick #3 – SELL December Australian Dollar



There are a couple of currency markets we could trade this week but I'm
choosing the Aussie primarily because of the trend. Hopefully the market
won't gap our order if rates continue to decline.



Pick #2 – SELL March Cocoa



The seasonals did little to push cocoa prices higher this year and last
Friday saw a rather dramatic decline in prices which would make it appear
that the market is ready to resume with the downtrend.



Pick #1 – SELL September Eurodollar



You could be more cautious and sell the break of 9500, or take the plunge
early and sell a break of support at 9503, but regardless of where you get
in, if we get a decent move lower then the ED is likely to continue with the
downtrend.

 

The Score Card




The purpose of this section is to give you a feel for which markets might be
worth trading and which you might pass on given your own set of
circumstances. The figures quoted are based on the price levels outlined in
the ezine, trading single contracts and do not accurately account for
slippage, commissions or other trading related fees.
The Score Card is updated monthly.

Summary for the Month of
October 2005
































































































































































































































































































































Date

Pos.

Market

In

Out

Profit/Loss

October 4-5

Sell


December Crude


6465


6395

700 profit


October 4-10

Buy


November Rice


732


732

0


October 4-5

Buy


October Cattle


8962


9047

340 profit


October 5-6

Sell


December mini-Dow


10417


10271


730 profit


October 5-6

Sell


December mini-NAS

1597.5


1566.5


620 profit


October 5

Sell


December mini-S&P

1213.5


1200


675 profit


October 6-10

Buy


December Silver


752.5


779.5

1350 profit


October 6

Buy

December Cotton


5463


5413

250 loss

October 7-13

Sell



December Cocoa


1367


1367

0


October 10

Sell

December Unleaded Gas

176.85

178.05

504 loss

October 11-14

Sell

December Japanese Yen

8827

8801

325 profit

October 11-13

Sell

December mini-NAS

1547.5

1537

210 profit

October 11-13

Buy

December Wheat

344 ¼

344 ¼

0

October 11-12

Buy

December Gold

480.5

477

350 loss

October 12-13

Buy

December Canadian $ 

8563

8530

330 loss

October 12

Sell

December mini-Dow

10237

10277

200 loss

October 12-14

Buy

December Oats

168 ¼

169 ¾

75 profit

October 12-17

Buy

December Soy Meal

170.1

175.7

560 profit

October 13-14

Buy

December Cattle

9192

9137

220 loss

October 14-17

Buy

December Swiss Franc

7843

7783

750 loss

October 14-17

Sell

December US Dollar

8927

8957

300 loss

Oct 14-Nov 1

Sell

December Corn

201 ¼

198 ¼

150 profit

October 17-19

Sell

December Crude

6215

6265

500 loss

October 19

Sell

December Heating Oil

193.90

195.1

504 loss

October 20

Sell

December Unleaded Gas

166.45

162.30

1743 profit

October 21-24

Sell

December Japanese Yen

8679

8707

350 loss

October 24-25

Buy

December Oats

167 ¾

166 ¼

75 loss

October 21 -25

Sell

December Cattle

8967

9032

260 loss

October 26 – 28

Buy

December Cocoa

1421

1407

140 loss

October 27

Sell

December Unleaded Gas

160.35

160.55

504 loss

October 27 – 28

Sell

December mini-Dow

10327

10285

210 profit

October 27 – 28

Sell

December mini-S&P

1189.50

1185.50

200 profit

October 27 – 28

Sell

December Lean Hogs

5967

6015

190 loss

Oct 28 – Nov 1

Buy

January OJ

118.65

117.85

120 loss

Oct 31 – Nov 4

Sell

December Australian $

7467

7337

1300 profit

Oct 31 – Nov 1

Sell

December Canadian $

8487

8501

140 loss

Oct 31 – Nov 8

Sell

September Eurodollar

95.135

95.115

50 profit
     
Gross Profit $9038 per contract

Gross Loss $5687 per contract

Net profit: $3351 per contract

 before commissions and fees!



* NOTE!!! Trading commodities is
RISKY!!!! These figures are estimates in the interests of tracking the
trades. Erich may or may not have a real money position in any market
covered at any given time. This Score Card does NOT apply to Tom's Trades.
This is neither a solicitation to trade nor a recommendation of any
strategy. Always consult your broker or advisor before attempting any trade.
Commodity trading involves substantial risk of loss. See full disclaimers at
the bottom of this email.

 


Lesson du jour -





Question:



I am a little confused on the stop loss issue: if I buy one contract of
"whatever" using a stop order would I also place my stop loss at the same
time? My thinking is that a stop loss is to get me out of a trade if it goes
against me so I don't eat up all of my account, is that correct?



Answer



Whenever you plan the entry of your trade you always need to plan for a stop
loss as well. You NEVER want to have an open position without a stop loss of
some kind. Obviously you want the stop loss order initiated after your
buy/sell order is filled, not before. It would be worth your while to find a
good broker to help you with the technical part of placing the order. Check
the reference section at the end of the newsletter for some broker
recommendations if you don't already have one of your own.



Personally, I usually let my broker worry about this technical stuff; after
all that's what I'm paying him for. To me it is worth a few extra dollars to
make sure my order is placed correctly than to save a couple of bucks only
to find myself in an order I didn't want!



You are absolutely correct about your stop loss statements. Stop losses are
there to protect you in the event that the market moves against you in an
unpredicted manner. If this happens it is usually a good indication that it
is time to leave.



Stop loss placement is a bit of an art form and requires some practice. The
good news is you can gain a feel for it through paper trading. As a rule of
thumb, the further back your stop is, the longer you can stay in a market;
however, this of course leaves more of your money at risk as well.



Some people will disagree with me, but I think most newbie's with small
trading accounts, would do better to place profit targets, rather than
trailing stop losses. What this means is that as you examine your chart,
determine where you think the market will go before reversing, and place an
order to exit the market slightly before that point. If the market continues
past your predetermined exit you can always re-enter the market; but in the
meantime you will have banked your profits to date, and it doesn't take long
for those smaller profits to begin adding up to a bigger account.



Erich



Got a question that needs answering like an itch you can’t scratch? Send it
along to
[email protected]
and I’ll be happy to try and clear
things up for you.

PLEASE
DON'T FORGET! No homework until I come back from the wedding. Enjoy your
time off!


 






















Futures Trading is Risky! Never trade
with money you cannot afford to lose!



Nothing in this publication is either a solicitation to trade
or a recommendation of any strategy. Always consult your broker or advisor
before attempting any trade. Commodity trading involves substantial risk of
loss.


THE DATA CONTAINED HERE IN ARE BELIEVED
TO BE RELIABLE BUT CANNOT BE GUARANTEED AS TO RELIABILITY, ACCURACY OR
COMPLETENESS; AND AS SUCH ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITHOUT NOTICE. TRADERS
HELPING TRADERS AND IT'S ASSOCIATES WILL NOT BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANYTHING
WHICH MAY RESULT FROM RELIANCE ON THIS DATA OR THE OPINIONS EXPRESSED
HEREIN.


DISCLOSURE OF RISK: THE RISK OF LOSS IN
TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL; THEREFORE, ONLY GENUINE
RISK FUNDS SHOULD BE USED. FUTURES AND OPTIONS MAY NOT BE SUITABLE
INVESTMENTS FOR ALL INDIVIDUALS, AND INDIVIDUALS SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER
THEIR FINANCIAL CONDITION IN DECIDING WHETHER TO TRADE. OPTION TRADERS
SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THE EXERCISE OF A LONG OPTION WOULD RESULT IN A
FUTURES POSITION.


NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY
ACCOUNT WILL, OR IS LIKELY TO, ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE
SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY
PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.


HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE
MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.


ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF
HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL
RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE
IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO
WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM, IN SPITE OF
TRADING LOSSES, ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS,
IN GENERAL, OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH
CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL
PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING
RESULTS.

 


Traders Helping
Traders




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Part Two of this
publication with
Tom's Trades
to follow shortly.