Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Erich and Tom's Update for Friday, November 11, 2005

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Market Update for Friday, November 11, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5

The AD fell off today but came up short of our entry. I hate trying to sell a market into the weekend, but the setup is still pretty good...just be aware of the increased riskiness of the trade.

*SELL December Australian Dollar at 7277
*Stop 7311
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 7157
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December British Pound BPZ5
The Pound is still a little indecisive, besides we've got the 172.50 line to catch a runaway market.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
The CD is as crazy as ever today. The political antics up here this week haven't helped matters any. I'm just watching tomorrow, but I do favour the downside.

December EuroFX ECZ5
The EC made a nice dip lower today. If you're still short this market you'll want your stops above the high. The rest of us are looking for another chance to sell.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
We got the confirmation today on a big break to the downside. It makes me wish I'd taken the larger risk and shorted anyway. Nice to know the ole hindsight's still 20/20.

I'd be lying if I said I was anxious to sell the Yen tomorrow, especially since it's a Friday and we've had a big day today (which is likely to be followed by a small day). But the setup is there, we've got good support and a decent trend so....

*SELL December Japanese Yen at 8477
*Stop 8507
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 8357
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1500 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
Bought the Peso today as the market broke resistance. There's not a lot of room to move the stops, so you might want to leave them where they are for tomorrow. Hopefully the market will cut us a little slack before the weekend.

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
I asked for the trade to tighten up a bit, and it did; however we've still got the psycho support at 7600 below the market that we can't bring into the trade without risking $500, so I'm waiting.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
Okay, so we got the breakout today. Did you notice the high? Yep, right on 9200 even. Do you think it will go higher tomorrow? I don't know either, but if it clears 9200 by at least 17 points, I'm in!

*BUY December US Dollar Index at 9217
*Stop 9183
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 9347
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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January Unleaded Gas HUF6
Gas didn't waste much time falling off today as prices nearly found our first profit target before the close. Given today's range we've got to do something with our stops however. The *ideal* stop is still back at the intial placement, but that's just crazy in my books. At the absolute least you'll want to bring them to breakeven for tomorrow and that's only if you don't mind watching your $700 in profit evaporate.

Prices are likely to continue lower over the longer term, but this is a lot of money. In fact I'm thinking of taking profit early if we see the market give us 155 again!

January Heating Oil HOF6
Our heating oil trade didn't fair quite as well as gas as the market remained rangebound and eventually stopped us out in the choppiness.

January Crude Oil CLF6
Crude declined nicely today, unfortunately prices gapped our entry and left us on the sidelines. Nothing new here tomorrow.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
The ED showed a bit of support on yesterday's low; however I'll run the sell order again tomorrow just in case we see a big break lower.

*SELL September Eurodollar at 94.995
*Stop 95.055
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 94.535
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

December mini=DOW YMZ5
Yep, that figures. Get stopped out AND THEN the market decides to rally. You have to admit that things weren't looking too promising there for a while. Not to worry, we should get another chance at this market shortly.

December mini=NAS NQZ5
Didn't get our pullback as the NAS made another big breakout. A more modest one would have given us a buy tomorrow, but this one would even give Tim Leary pause.

December mini=S&P ESZ5
In spite of the S&P's reluctance to trade higher, the market took off today with a vengence. Here too we need to be on the lookout for another chance to buy. Hopefully 1235 will hold things up a bit.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
Corn took a turn to the downside today which would suggest the bears still have a handle on this market. Ranges are still small and limiting, especially with all the long term support.

December Oats OZ5
Oats are still pretty choppy, trading a bullish day for a bearish one.

January Rice RRF6
I told you 750 was important for rice didn't I? Today the market took back everything it gave up yesterday, but these big ranges are making me a little nervous about trying something tomorrow.

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
Soy meal looks more aggressive in RSI than it is in the charts. The market is still weak of trend which is making it a tough market to get into.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
Bean Oil took a lesson from the mini=Dow and fell off AFTER it stopped us out yesterday. Unfortunately this is just like bean oil, which has a tendency to chop a lot before finally moving. Nothing for me here tomorrow however.

January Soybean SF6
Dare we try to buy beans yet again? We're back at the 592 resistance? Whaddaya think?

*BUY January Soybeans at 592 3/4
*Stop 586 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 610 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Wheat WZ5
Now that we're below the 310 support we can try to sell wheat below this week's low. If prices fall off tomorrow they're likely to run to weekly support at 300 and then 297.

*SELL December Wheat at 307 3/4
*Stop 310 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 298 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MEATS
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January Feeder Cattle FCF6
Feeders are still respecting the 115 resistance line, so I'll run the buy order again tomorrow. We're at an important support line for Feeders so something might happen tomorrow.

*BUY January Feeder Cattle at 115.25
*Stop 114.62
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $312 per contract
*Profit Target: 118.67 (projected)
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1712 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle gapped our entry thereby voiding our trade today. The big fade day makes me think a reversal is likely for tomorrow, but I'm just watching.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
Now there's a whipsaw day if every I saw one! Hogs definitely went looking for order around the 6450 resistance before tanking today. Glad we took the day off. I'll watch tomorrow, but will entertain a buy in this market very soon.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
Oops! I guess it's too late for a channel trade now, isn't it? Oh well, we'll probably see a lower session tomorrow and another chance to buy thereafter.

December Gold GCZ5
Gold is still pretty choppy right now. I'm just watching tomorrow.

December Silver SIZ5
Not the most encouraging day for our long position, is it? You might want to bring your stops in below today's low to protect yourself in the event of a reversal tomorrow. The trend is still up though, so not all is lost.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa's looking a little more bullish again. Maybe the seasonals will kick in a drive the market higher. I'll give it another look after the weekend.

December Coffee KCZ5
Coffee went looking for support today, but RSI says it found it when it hooked higher today. Hopefully this will translate into a strong rally for us tomorrow!

*BUY December Coffee at 108.80
*Stop 107.65
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $431 per contract
*Profit Target: 112.90
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1537 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Cotton CTZ5
Cotton continues to make some pretty big daily ranges. If you brought your exit stops in at all yesterday you probably got stopped out today with a small profit before prices continued lower. The trend is still good and building strength but you'll want your stops at least above today's high. Alternatively you could place them above the 5100 line. First profit target is at 4943. We're likely to see a bounce soon.

January OJ OJF6
OJ bounced off the RSI trendline today, but I'm not sure I want to try buying the high tomorrow. I think I'll just wait.

March Sugar SBH6
What can I say...it's sugar.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, November 11, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=1=00 HI=1=31 LO=1=00 CL=1=30

I opened the day buying 111=02 and got stopped out at B/E. We sold it again at =03 and exited at =13 for 10 ticks, $312. We made a pretty easy run up to =15 allowing me to squeeze as tightly as I did. After a small correction we bought =20 as the run higher regained momentum. We exited this one at =26 picking up another $187

The close at 111=30 has us watching for action off 112=00 or 111=16 tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.170 HI=.200 LO=.165 CL=.195

We got to .200 but didn't break above so we did nothing today. We'll wait for the break.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=42 HI=82 LO=02 CL=15

An insane day in the CD. At the open of the RTH the CD zoomed 50 points to 8480. I didn't have 8480 on the radar ... who'd a thunk. I sold 8438 on the way back down and exited at 24 for $140. We climbed back to 38 and I tried to get another one sold but couldn't get a good number as it fell off very quickly.

With a close at 8414 we'll play the same numbers again tomorrow ... 8440 and 8400. We'll also add 8456 and 8480 to the mix. 8456 we can play either way, 8480 is sell only on a failed retest.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=58 HI=93 LO=25 CL=29

Same sort of weirdness was present in the Swiss as the CD. Nothing done here. Same numbers for tomorrow 7735 and 7600. If we pop lower but not all the eway to 7600 I'll take a stab at buying a break of or a failed retest of 7620.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=2.10 HI=7.40 LO=2.30 CL=5.20

As we got into gear for the day's trading the Russell was right at 662 ... one of our numbers. I sold 661.50 and exited at 661.00. I tried like crazy to get out earlier and preserve some of the profits we'd accumulated. No dice. Out with $50. Next up I sold 659.70 and exited at 654.10 for a fat $560. Then we bought 654.40 and exited at 654.20 giving back $20. I then bought 654.40 and exited at 655.80 on an OB play for $140. I sold 653.70 and exited at 654.10 dropping $40. Next up I bought 654.50 and exited at 655.70 on an OB play for $120. I sold 655.70 and got out at 656.00 losing $30. We next bought 656.60 and out at 657.80 for $120. Next trade we bought 658.50 and exited at 665.80 for $730. I thought that was a nice one to end on. Done at $1630. Nice day. Two nice big runs away from 2 easy numbers of ours.

All the numbers tomorrow
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=8.00 HI=0.90 LO=6.00 CL=7.70

I thought the move to 469.50 was an acceptable confirmation of the 460/470 channel and sold 468.50, perfectly timing the low tick of the candle ... lol. We broke 468 triggering the roll to B/E. We went right back to 468.50 and they stopped us out at 469 for a $50 loss. I sold 468.50 again and this one was stopped at 469.20 dropping $70. I got caught up in the Russell and Bonds and missed another 468.50 sell that would have been a small loss or B/E. I sold 468.40 at 11:07; I exited at 466. 50 for $200. Done.

460 and the $10 channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.80 HI=.25 LO=.95 CL=.20

I opened the day buying 51.05 and getting booted at 50.95 losing $50. I sold 50.85 and exited by choice at 50.05 for $400. All the same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=42 HI=60 LO=40 CL=49

It was aroung the 1350 number a good bit today. I tried to buy it twice and couldn't get it filled. We'll play the same numbers tomorrow ... 1350 and 1320.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=1.93 3/4 HI=1.94 3/4 LO=1.93 1/2 CL=1.93 3/4

Back to Ugly
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.14 HI=3.16 LO=3.09 1/2 CL=3.09 3/4

Same numbers tomorrow.

Erich and Tom's Update for Thursday, November 10, 2005

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Market Update for Thursday, November 10, 2005
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
The AD continued to pullback today, but I'm continuing with our sell for tomorrow. If the market continues to rally I'll tighten the trade tomorrow.

*SELL December Australian Dollar at 7277
*Stop 7311
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 7157
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December British Pound BPZ5
The 172.50 line is still keeping me out of the market for the time being. If we see another rally tomorrow I might consider a sell trade for the reversal.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
Loonie is not only the nickname for the Canadian Dollar but the way this market is behaving right now.

December EuroFX ECZ5
You had another chance to take profit in the EC today as rates continue to hover at the 117.50 line. I'd like to see a little more support before our next sell.

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
The Yen is looking pretty bearish for tomorrow, and I'd like to sell it but I'm not happy with the parameters. I might have to hold off another day and wait for confirmation before selling. At the very least we should be able to sell 8500.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
The Peso bounced off resistance today, but I'm running the buy order again tomorrow. Thanks Joe for catching the typo with the exit stop.

*BUY December Mexican Peso at 93.125
*Stop 92.675
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 94.925
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
I should be making plans to sell the Swissy, but the support lines are a little fuzzy. Hopefully they'll tighten up a bit.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
And I should be buying the USD, but here too I'd like the resistance to get a little firmer.

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2: ENERGIES
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January Unleaded Gas HUF6
Gas gave us another hit on support today and RSI is awfully close to a testpoint. I'll set up a sell order just in case the market falls off early. Essentially I'm playing both sides of the 160 resistance.

*SELL January Unleaded Gas at 158.95
*Stop 160.05
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $462 per contract
*Profit Target: 154.15
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2016 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

January Heating Oil HOF6
While heating oil should move in sync with Gas, the market isn't giving us the same type of signal...well, at least not as strong, but the strategy is the same.

*SELL January Heating Oil at 179.35
*Stop 180.55
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $504 per contract
*Profit Target: 173.55
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2436 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

January Crude Oil CLF6
Gee, do we think there's a bit of support at 5950? I'll look to sell the market on a break below here. Hopefully the breakout will be clean and we won't get whipped.

*SELL January Crude at 5920
*Stop 5965
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 5760
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1600 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
Too bad we couldn't ride out yesterday's hiccup as the ED tanked today. No matter, we'll just look to sell a break through support again. Since we're so close to 9500 I'll probably sell below here.

*SELL September Eurodollar at 94.995
*Stop 95.055
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 94.535
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

December mini=DOW YMZ5
Today's hesitation took us out with a modest $180 in profit per contract. Too bad, I had high hopes for this trade. Still looking for another chance to buy.

December mini=NAS NQZ5
The NAS is still looking strong, but the current formation is pretty close to the neckline of a rounded bottom. RSI is getting a touch overbought, so a pullback would be welcomed.

December mini=S&P ESZ5
The S&P keeps reaching higher without success. You can almost bank on a pullback to 1210 tomorrow (or the next day). Almost.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
Corn's looking progressively stronger as the week goes on. We might look at taking a long position in a couple of days.

December Oats OZ5
RSI is pointing lower; however oat prices didn't do much today. Nothing here tomorrow.

January Rice RRF6
Aren't you glad we took profits where we did? 750 is an important support number for rice, we'll see if we get a bounce or break tomorrow.

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
Ugly day in soy meal. Nothing's happening here right now, but you can feel the market winding up like a spring.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
Bean Oil tagged us for a small loss today as prices broke the 2300 barrier. I think I'll avoid this until we get a better trend happening.

January Soybean SF6
That was unfortunate as beans thrashed about enough today to whipsaw our position. I think we had the right idea here, but framed the trade a little too tight.

December Wheat WZ5
Wheat's RSI hooked today short of a testpoint, so we'll probably see prices decline tomorrow. The 310 support is keeping me out of the trade right now, but we might get another chance before the weekend.
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5: MEATS
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January Feeder Cattle FCF6
Feeders are holding the line, but not really going higher or lower. I'll run the trade one more day to see what happens.

*BUY January Feeder Cattle at 115.25
*Stop 114.62
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $312 per contract
*Profit Target: 118.67 (projected)
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1712 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle is close enough to the contract highs that we can factor them into a buy order tomorrow. I'll give the market as much upside room as possible without risking too much money.

*BUY December Live Cattle at 92.62
*Stop 91.92
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.37
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1100 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
I want to buy Hogs in the worst way; however the long term resistance at 6500 is getting in the way. If prices trade closer to the 6500 area we might be able to do a buy above the contract highs.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
Another channel day in copper. If this keeps up we might look at doing a channel trade.

December Gold GCZ5
Gold's lack of a trend is making it difficult to take a position in this market. Think I'll watch tomorrow.

December Silver SIZ5
Bought silver today as prices briefly broke resistance. I'm not all that encouraged by today's indecisive close, so I might bring stops a bit below the close. Of course the *best* stop placement is to leave them at 764 if you can afford the risk.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
Cocoa's smallish range was barely enough to take us out of our short trade today. That's just mean. Standing aside for tomorrow.

December Coffee KCZ5
Coffee might be giving us another chance as prices reacted to the 108.50 resistance today. The trend's still strong and up, so I'm buying a break of 108.50 and covering on the other side.

*BUY December Coffee at 108.80
*Stop 107.65
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $431 per contract
*Profit Target: 112.90
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1537 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Cotton CTZ5
Cotton gave us a very nice session today as prices fell off substantially. I'm very happy with how this trade is progressing so far.

We've got $500 in profits as of the close, so you'll have to adjust your stops a bit. The *ideal* placement is still breakeven; however $500 is a lot of money. Intraday resistance is also at 5075 = 5080 so you could place stops above here as well. Of course no one says you can't jam them closer to the close either.

January OJ OJF6
OJ stopped us out with a small profit today. It looks like the market felt the psychological resistance at 125 a lot. This could be the beginning of a bigger pullback...but we'll see.

March Sugar SBH6
Sugar continued lower today, but a hiccup is likely for tomorrow (hey, it's sugar). We've got resistance at the high which you could use to bring in stops, or leave them at breakeven.
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"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, November 10, 2005
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Today is November 10 ... Join me in observence of the Birthday of the United States Marine Corps ... Semper Fi !!
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=1=25 HI=1=25 LO=0=26 CL=1=00

Shortly after the open we began a slide allowing us to get one sold at 111=14. A fairly orderly march to 110=31 ensued. We exited the trade with a tight roll to 111=03 as 111=00 broke. They immediately came at got us at =03 for 11 ticks, $343. We then bought at 111=04. We climbed to 111=11, rolled to =07 and stopped there for 3 ticks more, $93. By then we'd reached into the final hour.

The close at 111=00 has us watching for the break either way, ready to go at 111=03 or 110=28.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.210 HI=.210 LO=.155 CL=.160

We opened above the .200 so I left it alone. We'll play 95.200 tomorrrow buying a break higher or selling aretest there that fails and heads lower. The stop is .215 on the sell and .195 on the buy.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=44 HI=65 LO=08 CL=49

We began by selling 8434 which was stopped out at 8437 for a $30 loss. It fell so fast from there we couldn't get it resold. We then bought 8444. They narrowly missed our stop at 8443 and then we turned north in earnest. I exited at 8454 for $100. I'll go with 8440 and 8400 again tomorrow.

With a close at 8438 we'll play the same numbers again tomorrow ... 8440 and 8400. If we miss the buy off 8440 for any reason we can sell a break above 8456.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O-57 HI-69 LO-21 CL-65

We again flirted with 7600 as the SF dropped to 7600 and then bounced hard. We'll continue to pursue 7600 and 7735. ========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O-0.10 HI-6.10 LO-6.10 CL-2.40

We began the day selling 657.50 and exiting at 656.60 for $90. I bought 658.40 and exited at 658.30 losing $10. I sold 657.40 and exited at B/E. I bought 658.40 and exited at 664.90 after 666 AND 665 failed. We picked up $650. I sold 664.50 on the break of 665 and exited at 662.10 on a OB play for $240. Done for the day.

All the numbers tomorrow
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=3.40 HI=9.00 LO=2.70 CL=7.50

Very disappointing to watch it run to 469 today after being long fro 461 yesterday. We did nothing today. Talk about being "snake bit."

460 and the $10 channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.00 HI=.30 LO=.40 CL=.41

We sold 50.95 and got stopped out at 51.20 losing $125. Sold 50.95 a second time and exited at 50.41 on an MOC order. I considered keeping this trade on over night as it was looking very weak into the close. If we'd not been right on such a stron Support line I very well may have kept it. It just didn't make any sense to run the risk at that level. The chances for a bounce tomorrow looked to outweigh the reward of staying in. We'll see tomorrow though, won't we. Out with $270 giving us $145 net on the day.

All the same TT numbers for tomorrow. Let's see if they give us a second chance at 50.50.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=37 HI=44 LO=34 CL=41

Nothing here today. In addition to the Weekend TT numbers I will trade 1320 tomorrow but only by buying a break back near it and pulling the trigger as it starts climbing higher.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=1.94 3/4 HI=1.96 1/4 LO=1.94 1/2 CL=1.95 1/4

At least the candle for the day was green.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.14 HI=3.17 1/2 LO=3.12 CL=3.15

We almost got there today. Stay with the same numbers for tomorrow.

Erich and Tom's Update for Wednesday, November 9, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, November 9, 2005
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"Look at a stone cutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundredandfirst blow it will split in two, and I know it was not the last blow that did it, but all that had gone before." Jacob A. Riis
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
The AD firmly established support today off the 7300 line. I'll look to sell a break of 7300 and use this same line to cover the trade on the flip side. I'll place my entries and exits far enough away so as to avoid a whipsaw if possible.

*SELL December Australian Dollar at 7277
*Stop 7311
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 7157
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1200 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December British Pound BPZ5
Big fade day in the BP today which could translate into a rally tomorrow. I'm just watching.

December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
HUGE fade day in the CD today! What a crazy session...probably see something higher tomorrow, but I'm not touching this.

December EuroFX ECZ5
If you took profit on target today you're up $2200 per contract in the EC today! If you're trying to let the trade run you'll want those stops above today's high. The EC should head lower, but there's no point in letting those profits evaporate!

December Japanese Yen JYZ5
The Yen is very close to another RSI testpoint which should send rates lower. I'll hold off one more day for either a better test, or confirmation of resistance by a lower day.

December Mexican Peso MPZ5
The Peso retreated from our entry a bit today, but that's okay. We'll leave the order "as is" in case we see a quick reversal; otherwise we'll tighten the trade in a day or two.

*BUY December Mexican Peso at 93.125
*Stop 92.075
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 94.925
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Swiss Franc SFZ5
The SF is looking like it wants to go lower, but these goofy day sessions are making it tough to take a position with confidence. Just watching tomorrow.

December US Dollar Index DXZ5
The USD traded higher today but gave us another very bearish looking day. This market needs to reset a bit before we look at another buy.
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
Gas made good support on the low today. It might be a little too early to get into another sell just yet.

December Heating Oil HOZ5
Another wacky day in heating oil. Prices want to go lower, but these high closes make it tough to sell.

January Crude Oil CLF6
Same for crude...prices should be going lower (that's the trend) but the high closes make it difficult to take a sell order with small risk.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
Got stopped out of our ED trade today as the market bounced a bit. Oh well, at least we made enough to cover commission.

December miniDOW YMZ5
Dodged another bullet in the Dow today. Prices rallied a bit, but RSI is sloping lower with makes me a little nervous about tomorrow. I might jam the exit stop under the 10550 line and hold my breath.

December miniNAS NQZ5
The NAS is looking like it might pullback a bit, at least according to RSI. That would be fine as if would give me another chance to buy after missing the last rally.

December miniS&P ESZ5
The S&P continues to look weak today. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a setback, but overall I'm still looking for a good spot to buy.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
Corn's looking like it might try to rally a bit tomorrow. Don't know how high it can get with all this resistance above the market though. We'll probably see prices range for a while.

December Oats OZ5
Oats are winding up in a big sideways triangle formation. If this holds we should see prices fall off tomorrow. I'll hold off until we get the breakout however, as there's not too much profit in the meantime.

November Rice RRX5
If you didn't take profit on target earlier in the week you would have been stopped near the same place today as prices broke yesterday's low and hit the exit stop. Nothing new here tomorrow.

December Soybean Meal SMZ5
I really hate this sideways market stuff, don't you? Soy meal refuses to commit one way or the other. The only problem is that when we do get the breakout it's likely to be a biggie.

December Soybean Oil BOZ5
Bean Oil bounced a bit today which isn't good news for our shorts. We're still in this market, but just barely. Keeping my fingers crossed for tomorrow but it doesn't look good.

January Soybean SF6
Beans showed us some support at 582 today which was a bit of a surprise. I thought for sure the bears would drive the market lower, but those bean bulls won't go away easy. Heck, if they can push the price above 591's resistance tomorrow I might even join them!

*BUY January Soybeans at 591 3/4
*Stop 586 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 606 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

December Wheat WZ5
Wheat tagged us at breakeven today as the market bounced higher. The low close suggests that this might have been a fluke day, but I'll hold off tomorrow.
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5: MEATS
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January Feeder Cattle FCF6
Feeders made a run at our entry today, but just came up short. I'm running the trade again tomorrow although RSI is showing us a hook which might lead to lower prices. I just hope that if we get filled it is a good fill...not a wishy washy one.

*BUY January Feeder Cattle at 115.25
*Stop 114.62
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $312 per contract
*Profit Target: 118.67 (projected)
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1712 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

December Live Cattle LCZ5
Cattle's RSI is also hooking so a bounce looks likely tomorrow as well. There's nothing I can trade here at the moment.

December Lean Hogs LHZ5
I don't think hogs will run away on us with the 6450 resistance above the market to hold it down. We might see another soft day (or two) before we get another buy signal.

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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
Copper's doing something...but it beats the heckouttame what.

December Gold GCZ5
Our fears were realized today as Gold traded high enough to hit our exit stop tagging us for a $260 loss. RSI has also broken the trendline so higher prices are likely tomorrow, but I'm holding off buying until we clear the 465 466 resistance.

December Silver SIZ5
Silver's looking awfully indecisive today. RSI is at a testpoint so we could see a bounce; however I'm going to look to buy the market (slight uptrend) above the 770 resistance.

*BUY December Silver at 771
*Stop 764
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 792
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1050 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
Nuts...cocoa prices dipped just low enough to find our sell order today. I guess I should have "tweaked" it a bit in light of yesterday's session. If prices rally tomorrow we're out, but it should put us in a better frame for buying again.

December Coffee KCZ5
Double nuts...I waited too long before buying coffee. I though for sure we would get one more lower session out of the pullback, but we didn't. Next time.

December Cotton CTZ5
On a brighter note, cotton declined enough today to get our trade to at/near breakeven for tomorrow. You might consider putting the stop just the other side of 5150.

November OJ OJX5
OJ stalled today and simultaneously is giving us an RSI test. Something's going to happen tomorrow...hopefully it will be a bounce. Leave exit stops where they are for now.

March Sugar SBH6
Even sugar was cooperative today as prices continued low enough for us to get the trade to "free trade" status (that means bring the stops to breakeven for tomorrow.)
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, November 9, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O-112 HI-128 LO-110 CL-124

I sat out the day. Nothing happened despite my concerns about the auction. It went well but not so well that we saw any thing major resulting. We did close almost a full point higher.

The close Tuesday at 11124 has us watching for action on 11116 and 11200.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O-.205 HI-.225 LO-.195 CL-.200

We opened above the .200 so I left it alone. We'll play 95.200 tomorrrow buying a retest as it turns back higher. The stop will remain 95.295.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O-25 HI-54 LOĆ’60 CL-45

We crept much lower thru the night and the trading window opened with prices well below 8400 ... around 8370 to be precise. I bought 8404, got stopped at B/E and bought it again at 8406. I got out at 8432 for $260. There were 2 more opportunities which I could not get filled.

I'll go with 8440 and 8400 again tomorrow.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O-81 HI-82 LO-19 CL-64

SF flirted with 7600 overnite, hitting 7619. By opening of the RTH we were up around 7650 so I let it be. For tomorrow I'll be back on 7735 or 7600.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O-1.60 HI-2.30 LO-5.60 CL-0.40

A pretty brutal day that was devoid of any real clear direction. Just lots and lots of choppiness. We started out with a decent sell at 659.50 which went right to 656 ... one of our numbers ... I exited at 656.30 for $320. I bought 656.40 and exited at 655.60 dropping $80. I bought 656.40 again and exited at 657.90 for $150. I sold 657.60 and exited at 658.50 dropping $90. I took a break at this point and returned with the Russell trading about 660. About 11:33 CST I sold 659.50 I exited at 658.20 for $130. I sold 657.60 and exited at 656.50 for $110. I bought 656.70 and exited at 658.70 for $200. I missed the break of 658 that followed. I bought 656.70 and out at 657.90 for $120. I quit for the day shortly thereafter. I just couldn't sustain the concentration and edge. Out with $860.

All the numbers tomorrow
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O-0.10 HI-3.80 LO-9.80 CL-2.30

I bought 461.40 and was stopped out at 461.30 losing $10. 460 and the $10 channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O-.18 HI-.45 LO-.90 CL-.96

Nothing today. We'll go again tomorrow with the same array of numbers from TT.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O-26 HI-36 LO-19 CL-34

In addition to the Weekend TT numbers I will trade 1320 tomorrow but only by buying a break back near it and pulling the trigger as it starts climbing higher.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=1.95 1/4 HI=1.95 3/4 LO=1.94 1/2 CL=1.95 1/4

This is hard to watch. No Option Spreads yet.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.11 1/2 HI=3.15 3/4 LO=3.11 1/2 CL=3.13

I can't find a reason to come off 3.18 1/2 and establish an ambush point any where else. Numbers from TT still prevail.