Thursday, November 03, 2005

Erich and Tom's Updates for Wednesday, November 2, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, November 2, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades. Subscribers got these last night, test drivers get theirs after the fact.

To get YOURS hot and fresh and BEFORE the markets open, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The AD fell off nicely today allowing us to bring our stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow. The market is against strong support at 7425 and we don't want to get caught if there's a reversal tomorrow.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound retreated today and brought RSI back to a test point. From here we can look at selling a break below current support tomorrow and hopefully trade the market lower over the next few days.

*SELL December British Pound at 175.97
*Stop 176.51
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $337 per contract
*Profit Target: 174.31
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1037 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD backed up on us today, stopping us out for a small loss. While rates *look* like they want to head lower, the market is being very indecisive about picking a direction.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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A stall in the EC today as rates held yesterday's support. I'm still interested in selling but I'll probably try to do if from the 119.50 support instead of current levels.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Still on the sidelines with the Yen after yesterday's gap. Too bad, the market has made some nice gains over the last couple of days.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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Who was that smart person who said to expect a reaction at 92.500 today? Oh yeah, that was me. ;-)

Okay, I got a little lucky that the market hit 92.500 exactly, but the resistance at this level is pretty obvious. I'd like to see a reaction lower tomorrow and I *might* consider a sell the next day.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swissy followed the EC's cue today and held the support line at 7770. RSI is dipping lower however, and as such I'll look to sell a break of current support tomorrow.

*SELL December Swiss Franc at 7747
*Stop 7777
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 7553
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2425 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD has been a bit wishy-washy the last few days. The FOMC was released today; however it doesn't seem to have had much of an effect on the market so far. Maybe tomorrow it will play catch up.
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
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A hiccup in the Gas market today as prices recouped much of yesterday's decline. Nothing tradable here tomorrow I'm afraid.
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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Heating oil would have been a very nice trade as the market hit the first proposed profit target today. I guess the next time I'll have to trade crude and heating oil to be sure!
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January Crude Oil CLF6
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A rather smallish day in Crude today, but we're still short this market for the time being. If you haven't gotten your stops to breakeven yet, then you'd better do so for tomorrow's session.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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The ED fell off nicely today thereby giving us a bit of breathing room from our stops. You could bring the stops above today's high, or just leave them where they are for one more session.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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Not much to report in the Dow today as the market traded within yesterday's range. RSI has broken to the upside, so this might translate into a rally tomorrow, but I'll stick with the sell for right now.

*SELL December mini-Dow at 10397
*Stop 10453
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $285 per contract
*Profit Target: 10203
*Approximate Profit Potential: $960 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS looks a little more bearish after today. I was going to try and sell it tomorrow as well, but the 1570 support kept getting in the way. Standing aside for tomorrow.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P has a similar problem as we have selling the NAS with the support at 1198 - 1200 bunging up the trade. RSI is at a testpoint so we should see something happen tomorrow. If you wanted you could certainly tighten the trade to sell today's low.

*SELL December mini-S&P at 1196.50
*Stop 1203.50
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 1147.50
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2450 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Whew! That was a tough two week haul, and only $150 in profit to show for it. Oh well, it still beats a loss! Corn's showing us a bit of reaction to the long term support at 195. This might go on for a couple of days before we get another crack at it.
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December Oats OZ5
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I'm getting a little less comfortable with the thought of selling oats after today. RSI has made significant declines, and while it's not oversold yet, it is getting close. Likewise the 158 support is holding it's ground, and you know from the chart this is a tough line.
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November Rice RRX5
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Thar she blows! Rice took off in a big way today after stalling the last couple of days. There is enough here that you can bring stops to breakeven if you like, or leave them where they are for one more session (it's only $120 at risk). First profit target is just above us at 770, but this looks like it could be the start of a bigger move.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy meal made a run higher today, but strangly enough RSI fell off. It will be interesting to see if this affects prices tomorrow or if the rally will continue.

If prices do trade higher we'll look for a chance to buy at 178's resistance.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bit of a hestiation in Bean Oil today as prices held yesterday's support. We could see a higher session tomorrow as BO is likely to follow the rest of the bean complex.
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January Soybean SF6
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Beans took off higher today as well, but like Soy Meal, RSI headed lower. What does this mean for tomorrow? We'll have to wait and see. Besides, there's plenty of resistance at 595 - 596 that we have to wait for as well.
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December Wheat WZ5
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That was just plain nasty. Did you see wheat try to whipsaw us today? What's up with that?!? I'll run the sell order again tomorrow, but I think we'll see prices rally.

*SELL December Wheat at 313 3/4
*Stop 317 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 301 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $600 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MEATS
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January Feeder Cattle FCF6
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Feeders are still reeling from running headlong into the contract highs at 115.00. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow, just in case we see a quickie reversal and rally.

*BUY January Feeder Cattle at 115.25
*Stop 114.62
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $312 per contract
*Profit Target: 118.67 (projected)
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1712 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Live Cattle LCZ5
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Cattle are looking much stronger to the downside after today, and RSI is even showing us a test. I considered selling Cattle tomorrow; however we've got the 8950 support in the way. I might hold off one more day and see what happens.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Is the hog rally over? It might be, or maybe it never began as the current market trend doesn't have a lot of strength to it. Just watching here tomorrow.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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I'm I glad I chose to sit on my hands today in copper. What a house-cleaning type of day. A lot of orders got whipsawed today folks after such a wishy-washy session. Think I'll just watch tomorrow as well.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Big reversal in gold as prices took a serious dip today. There is support at 456 that might allow us another crack at selling.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Of course silver followed gold lower today. There's support at 730 that might hold prices up tomorrow.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa's still reluctant to pick a trend, trading higher one day and lower the next. I'll watch this market tomorrow, but there is a possibility we'll see a rally before the weekend.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee's also beginning to look a little stronger and we could see a rally tomorrow; however there's nothing tradable for me here right now.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton complied and gave us another intermediate day today. I'll look at selling this week's low tomorrow and cover the trade above the new support, which will be resistance to the upside.

*SELL December Cotton at 5147
*Stop 5207
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 4943
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1020 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November OJ OJX5
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OJ reversed on us today taking us out of our trade either at breakeven, or for a small loss. Too bad, since this market had been trending so well. We'll watch tomorrow before considering another buy.
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March Sugar SBH6
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Sugar rubbed a little salt in the wound today as prices continued lower for a second day after gapping our entry. I think we can safely expect a higher session tomorrow, but I don't know if it will allow us another chance to buy or not.
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, November 2, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=2-04 HI=2-07 LO=1-20 CL=1-25

I sold 111-28 and exited at 111-22 picking up a quick 6, $187 before the self imposed cut-off. We went flat in any case as the market began holding its breath prior to the announcement. If you had any questions why I took a powder for the balance of the day you only need look at the candles coinciding with release of the minutes.

Tomorrow we get after 111-16 and 112-00.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.270 HI=.270 LO=.220 CL=.230

Another dip. We look again tomorrow. At the moment I see nothing I can do until a return to 95.400 minimum.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=73 HI=33 LO=53 CL=20

I bought 8506 and exited at 8527 for $210. Done for the day due to FOMC

We'll go with the 3 TT numbers again tomorrow. If we get a failure at 8480 I'll sell it. No buy, though, save that for a break above 8500.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=87 HI=11 LO=73 CL=88

The SF avoided all our numbers and then the FOMC ban kicked in. Same TT numbers for tomorrow
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=2.20 HI=8.60 LO=1.10 CL=6.60

I sold 644.70 and exited at 642.50 for $220. I tried to get out at 642.10 on a OB play. Didn't quite work that way. I bought 642.50 and out at 643.70 for $120. I bought 642.50 again and out at 644.50 for $200. By then we were on the verge of the witching hour and we packed it in. All the numbers tomorrow
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=7.80 HI=8.00 LO=0.10 CL=0.60

Didn't get high enough to engage us ... unfortunately. $10 channel tomorrow.

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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O.00 HI=.70 LO=.95 CL=.11

We bought 52.05 and out at 52.25 for $100. Followed that with a buy at 52.10 which we exited at 52.50 for $200. I sold 52.45 and exited at 52.50 losing $25. We'll go again tomorrow with the same array of numbers from TT.

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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=60 HI=71 LO=52 CL=68

I sold 1368 and exited at 1357 for $110. Be ready to go early at 1350. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=1.96 1/2 HI=1.98 1/2 LO=1.96 1/4 CL=1.96 3/4

Just watchin'.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.17 1/2 HI=3.20 1/2 LO=3.14 1/2 CL=3.17

I bought 3.18 3/4 and exited at 3.19 for $12. I tried to sell 3.18 1/2 and couldn't get it it filled. I'll do it again tomorrow.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Tuesday, November 1, 2005

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Market Update for Tuesday, November 1, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades. Subscribers got these last night, test drivers get theirs after the fact.

To get yours hot and fresh and BEFORE the markets open, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

"Some men give up their designs when they have almost reached the goal; while others, on the contrary, obtain a victory by exerting, at the last moment, more vigorous efforts than ever before." - Herodotus
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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Sold the AD today, but didn't get the breakout I was hoping for. The lack of downward momentum has me a bit concerned for tomorrow. You could bring stops in above today's high if you wanted, or leave them at 7503.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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RSI moved higher today while rates headed lower...not exactly the combination I was hoping for. We'll probably see a rally tomorrow, but I'll wait for confirmation before trying another buy.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD was a little more cooperative today as we sold the market on the break of the 8490 support. Rates did take a stab at our stops before the close, but couldn't rally that high. You can leave stops where they are for tomorrow, or bring them just above 8500.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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Big move lower in the ED today. It looks like we might get another chance to sell from 119.50 when/if rates test support in that area the next few days.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Arrrrgh! [I feel like Charlie Brown] We had the Yen nailed but it slipped past us by gapping our entry this morning. Nuts...have to sit and watch tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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Looks like the Peso will challenge the resistance at the top of the trading range at 92.500. Right now the trend doesn't seem that strong so I'd expect another bounce.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swissy also moved lower today but doesn't look quite as bearish as the other currencies. We'll see what happens tomorrow.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD rallied a bit today but we're still below the significant resistance at 90.00. Once we get closer/over here, then we'll look at putting on a buy.
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
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Very peculiar day in Gas today. Big opening gap and tiny range (it's not a limit move). That's not like Gas at all! I think I'll steer clear tomorrow, but lower prices would be my pick.
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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I was hedging between Heating Oil and Crude and in hindsight I should have done both! What a day! Unfortunately we have to stand aside for tomorrow.
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January Crude Oil CLF6
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Crude nicely filled our short order today and even gave us a bit of room to move our stops. We have a few options here, either keep stops where they are, bring them to breakeven, or use the resistance at 6100, which is halfway.

First stop is 5910.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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Sold the ED today, but the upward angle in RSI has me a bit concerned about tomorrow. You might want to bring exit stops in a bit, either above today's high, or above 9520.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow gave us a beautiful reaction off the 10500 resistance today. Notice the low closing price? That's a good sign that the market will continue lower tomorrow. RSI is also at a testpoint which adds strength to this resistance.

*SELL December mini-Dow at 10397
*Stop 10453
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $285 per contract
*Profit Target: 10203
*Approximate Profit Potential: $960 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS did follow the Dow lower today, in fact this market is looking particularly bullish for tomorrow. While the minidices usually move together, I'm going to hold off on selling the NAS until we get a confirmation.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P is falling right between the Dow and the NAS today, trading higher, but also against an RSI test and resistance at 1215. I'm not sure if we'll see a reversal here tomorrow, but I will consider selling a break of today's low.

*SELL December mini-S&P at 1196.50
*Stop 1203.50
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 1147.50
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2450 per contract
*RRR: 7:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Corn continues its slow downward slide. You can bring your stops in above today's high to protect a little more profit if you like.
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats continued lower today, and while I want to sell the market the darn 157 - 158 line is getting in the way. I'll hold off tomorrow, maybe the market will give us a reaction and allow us to tighten up the trade.
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November Rice RRX5
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Rice remained coy today, but that's okay. I'd rather the market made a bigger breakout when it was finally ready to do so and all this time in the channel is like winding a spring.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy meal made a weak attempt at finding our short today, but came up short. I'll run the trade again tomorrow, but would hope to see a move soon.

*SELL December Soy Meal at 167.9
*Stop 170.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 160.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil made a bigger move to the downside today, but not too worry, if prices continue lower we should be able to sell off the 2220 line.
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January Soybean SF6
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Smallish day in beans today. This is rather uncharacteristic for this market which normally has some pretty big day-to-day ranges.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Slight hesitation in Wheat today as prices reacted to the contract low. This is good as it shows us strength in the support line. I'd like to press my luck and give it another day before selling, but I'll run a just-in-case order tomorrow.

*SELL December Wheat at 313 3/4
*Stop 317 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 301 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $600 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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5: MEATS
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January Feeder Cattle FCF6
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And that is why we didn't buy Feeders today. Did you notice where the market made a high? Pretty darn close to the resistance at the contract high, wasn't it?

This resistance so close to the 115.00 level allows us to take a tight trade if the market should break the contract highs tomorrow. I won't wait too long to exit if I'm wrong however, and will get out the other side of 114.75.

*BUY January Feeder Cattle at 115.25
*Stop 114.62
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $312 per contract
*Profit Target: 118.67 (projected)
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1712 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Live Cattle LCZ5
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We have a similar setup in Cattle today, after a wicked whipsaw type of day! It looks like the market should be heading lower tomorrow, but if we get a reversal and a break of the contract highs I'll look to buy.

*BUY December Live Cattle at 9262
*Stop 9175
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 9537
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1110 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs continued higher today, but there's not much to buy the market at right now. We need to wait for it to show us resistance first.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Copper's looking like it's heading lower tomorrow as we got a tiny break of the RSI trendline. The market is still technically in a uptrend and there's resistance at 179, so I'll hold off selling right now.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Big reversal for gold today as the US Dollar rallied. Gold is at an important support level right now so a bounce/break will determine the future direction of this market for the short term.
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December Silver SIZ5
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I guess I should have sold silver afterall! Wow, what a drop today! We'll keep a lookout for the next selling opportunity.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa made a nice drop to 1350's support today. I'd like to sell the market tomorrow, but we've got more support at 1300. If we drop off to here then I'll try to put a trade together.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee continued to fall off today. I do expect prices to find support very soon and maybe even continue with the uptrend. Right now the market is giving us very mixed signals about its direction.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton looked a little more bearish today. Dare we wait one more day to see if we can sell from a better price?
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November OJ OJX5
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OJ struggled to get higher today. We can bring our exit stops just below the low and the 118.00 line for tomorrow. You can bring your stops to breakeven if you like, but that might prove to be a touch too tight.
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March Sugar SBH6
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My frustration with sugar continues to build as the market gapped our entry today and voided our short trade. Sugar has a tendency to chop, so maybe we'll get another chance in a day or two...but I'm not holding my breath.
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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, November 1, 2005
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Take note, we have an FOMC Meeting tomorrow. It is strongly likely we'll see another .25 basis point hike in the discount rate. I will be done trading Bonds, Russell and all currencies by 10 am PST. You should be too. There is no reason to try and catch falling knives. We do our best work when markets are most normal.
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=1-21 HI=2-08 LO=1-18 CL=1-31

We began the day buying 111-21 which I exited at -28 for 7 ticks, $218. I bought -03 and stopped out at -06 for 3 more, $93. Not great, not bad.

Tomorrow we get after 111-16 and 112-00.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.260 HI=.280 LO=.250 CL=.265

We got a small green one today. I'll look in again on Wednesday.

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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=04 HI=39 LO=60 CL=69

We sold 8497 and exited at 8489 for $120. I sold 8496 a bit later. We made it down to 8465 and I rolled my stop to 8473. They filled us at 8475 for $210. The subsequent failure at 8480 was pretty juicy but I didn't have it on the list.

We'll go with the 3 TT numbers again tomorrow. If we get a failure at 8480 I'll sell it. No buy, though.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=49 HI=58 LO=71 CL=96

We slipped below 7820 about an hour before our trading window opened. SF went to 7771 and bounced. That was just above another number of ours at 7760. The result was we got skunked on the day.

Same TT numbers for tomorrow
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=5.50 HI=0.80 LO=5.50 CL=9.20

I bought 642.50 and held my breath. We'd already done about a 4 + point move. I exited at 645.20 for $270 as it looked to me like the move had found some opposition. I then sold 644.60 and exited at 645.10 losing $50. I bought 645.40 and made it out at 649.40 for $400. I sold 646.80 and exited at 646.90 losing $10. I sold 646.60 and exited at 645.20 $140. It started getting real choppy and I felt like I'd lost touch so I took a break. It was just as hard to get a handle on when I came back about 1:00 pm CST so I closed up shop. with my $750.

All the numbers tomorrow
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=.00 HI=4.30 LO=6.50 CL=6.90

I came real close to selling 468something late in the day but chickened out 'cause of the late hour. $10 channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.00 HI=.10 LO=.10 CL=.23

I sold 52.40 and exited at 51.85 for 55 points, $275. I sold 51.90 and exited at 51.65 for 25 ticks, $125. We'll go again tomorrow with the same array of numbers from TT.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=67 HI=72 LO=49 CL=351

I sold 1367 and exited at 1354 for $130. Be ready to go early at 1350. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=1.96 3/4 HI=1.97 LO=1.96 CL=1.96 1/4

Watching only. I'm starting to watch July, Sept and Dec 06 calls. I don't see anything yet that floats my boat. It may take some considerable time before I do. I will keep you posted.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.18 HI=3.29 1/2 LO=3.16 CL=3.17

I bought 3.18 1/2 and exited at 3.17 1/4 for a loss of $62. I'll do it again tomorrow.

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part One

You get the FULL Edition of Part One today! Don't say we never give you anything... :)
http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.htm

Don't forget...this is ONLY Part One...there is a Part Two, containing the famous "Tom's Trades"!

Subscribers got these on Sunday, Test Drivers get theirs after the fact. To get yours HOT off the presses complete with charts, entries and exits and of course those unbelieveable standing room only Wednesday Night Webinars, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

"Tom's Trades" for Friday, October 28, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, October 28, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=1-27 HI=2-00 LO=1-15 CL=1-26

We sold -28 and got stopped at -25 after we failed to get lower than -23 picking up 3 ticks, $93. We sold -29 and stopped at -21 for 8, $250. Next I bought -20 and stopped at 25 for 5 more, $156.

With the close at 111-26 we'll be on 111-16 and 112-00 tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.305 HI=.325 LO=.270 CL=.290

I closed the trade at 95.275 on Wednesday walking away with $437. I probably won't trade the ED again until after the FOMC meeting on next Tuesday. I look close at it over the weekend.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=66 HI=04 LO=38 CL=57

It got back to our 8560 number but did it at the end of a long downside run so I left it alone. We'll play 8460 as per TT and add 8560, 8440 and 8520 to the mix. Sell only at 8560.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=29 HI=15 LO=19 CL=90

I bought 7886 and exited at 7905 for 19 points, $237. I bought 7884 and exited at 7894 treating 96 as a test of 7900. Out with $125. Same TT numbers and 7880 for tomorrow
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=0.00 HI=0.30 LO=4.40 CL=7.20

We began selling 636.50 on the break of 637 and exited at 631.00 for $550. I bought 632.50 and exited at 631.50 giving back $100. I bought 632.50 and exited at B/E. Next we sold 631.50 and exited at 629.00 trying to get out at 628.10 on a OB play. Moving too fast. We'll take the $250. next we sold 629.50 and exited at 625.50 again on an attempted OB play. Out with $400. Exercised the $1000 quttin' time. All the numbers tomorrow
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=5.50 HI=7.80 LO=4.50 CL=5.60

Nothing for us either day. $10 channel tomorrow.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.00 HI=.10 LO=.10 CL=.23

I sold 52.95 and exited at 52.35 for 60 points, $300. I decided not to give it the usual 30 points as the sideways trade about 12:30 to 1:00 pm was a pretty convincing whisper. We'll go again tomorrow with the same array of numbers from TT.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=20 HI=28 LO=07 CL=15

You might have done the 1410 buy late in the day. I was too preoccupied to do anything about it as the Russell was keeping me handcuffed at the time the alarm went off. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=1.98 1/4 HI=1.98 1/4 LO=1.97 1/2 CL=1.97 3/4

Watching only.

It's a wonder every family farmer doesn't just slit his wrists. I think, next to Native Americans, the family farmer is the most outrageously treated group of people in this country. When some ex-hippy from the 60's can make more money growing herbs on an acre of ground than a family farmer can growing corn on 300 acres ... well, something is just wrong to my mind.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.24 1/2 HI=3.26 1/2 LO=3.22 CL=3.24 1/2

Wednesday we sold 3.26 1/2 and exited at 3.23 1/2 for $150. Today we sold 3.26 1/4 and exited at 22.1/2 for 3 3/4 cents, $187. We'll stay with the same numbers for tomorrow, 2.22 1/2 and 3.26 1/2.

Erich's Update for Friday, October 28, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Friday, October 28, 2005
==================================================
No Tom's Trades Tonight.
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
The AD headed a little higher today, but I'm still on the lookout for a pullback/stall so that we can safely enter the market. Maybe next week.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
That's interesting, rates rallied today while RSI fell off - definite divergence (at least for the short term). I'd still like to see some new resistance before we look to buy.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The first sign of resistance in the CD today. With a bit of luck the market will pullback slightly over the next few sessions so that we can buy at a better rate.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
RSI gave us a definite sell signal in the EC today, even though rates rallied. I'm standing aside to see if the market follows suit tomorrow.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
I usually don't like to get into a currency trade before the weekend, but everything still looks in sync for the sellign the Yen tomorrow.

*SELL December Japanese Yen at 8667
*Stop 8703
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 8553
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1425 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
Still nothing too exciting happening in the Peso. I'll continue to watch tomorrow.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
Like the other currencies we're following, the SF's RSI fell off today and broke the trendline, but rates rallied slightly. This divergence makes me think we'll see a decline tomorrow.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
The USD barely gapped our entry this morning, so you might have scrubbed the trade as a result. If you did take the trade and are currently short you might want to bring exit stops above the 8905 intraday resistance for tomorrow.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
We didn't stand a chance in the gas market today as the huge range broke support only long enough to find our order. The resulting whipsaw hit us for just over a $500 loss. Ouch! And it looked so good on paper.
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
Heating Oil dipped slightly today and RSI followed suit, but after the gas fiasco I think I'll let it ride until next week.
----------
January Crude Oil CLF6
----------
Not a good day in Crude either as the market broke support and then promptly stalled. The only good news is that we took our lumps early. Nothing new here tomorrow.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
I'm not having a lot of luck today as the ED avoided our sell by a measly 0.005 point. It would have been nice to sell the high, but I'll just wait for tomorrow. Maybe we'll see the ED wait one more day for us.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
We caught a nice move in the Dow today. Kind of makes up a bit for the crummy energy trades - at least a little bit. We've got a little over $375 in profit as of the close so you'll want to take steps to protect that. Notice the low of the day? Yep, right where the market rallied from a mere week ago.

At the very least you'll want stops at breakeven. Alternatively there is pretty good intraday resistance at 10275 which you could place a stop above. Of course no one says you can't make your stop tighter still.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
The NAS did follow the Dow lower, as we knew it would, but the setup wasn't right to sell. Now the market is at significant support again, so a break lower will confirm the downtrend and a bounce could put us back into bull territory.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
Surprisingly enough the S&P's decline today was the most subdued of the bunch, which is a little unusual for this market. Here too you'll want to bring your exit stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow's session. Alternatively you could use intraday resistance as tight as the 1182.50 line.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Corn continues to inch lower. Not a quick moving market by any stretch, but at least it's moving. You could bring exit stops a few ticks above today's high if you wanted to protect a bit of money.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Oats made a wild stab lower, but flinched as they got close to the 158 support. The higher close makes it look like they might rally again tomorrow, but I'm just watching.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Rice reacted to support today, but the small day doesn't convince me that the trend is ready to reverse - yet. Another higher session will get us closer to buying territory, but I might just watch for tomorrow.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Soy meal didn't do anything today, so I'll run the same trade as yesterday.

*SELL December Soy Meal at 167.9
*Stop 170.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 160.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*BUY December Soy Meal at 172.3
*Stop 169.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 181.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Even bean oil continues to flounder at the 2340 support line. Man, we really need to find a market to trade with some trend behind it!
----------
January Soybean SF6
----------
Still waiting for the big bean market to signal something, anything...but so far, nothing.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat is looking like it might enter a pullback phase tomorrow, which would be good news because we might actually be able to do something with this market.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
----------
If you haven't moved those stops yet, you'll want them relatively tight going into tomorrow's session. I'd recommend placing them above today's high.
----------
December Live Cattle LCZ5
----------
I dunno what to tell you. This market continues to alternate bullish days for bearish ones. It's beginning to look a lot like sugar with bigger ranges.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Sold hogs today on a break of obvious support. I hate to say it, but the best place for stops is where they are: 6015. If you can't stand that you could put them above 5980.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper's finally at a testpoint, and while I'm pretty sure we'll see a rally tomorrow, the fact that prices seem to top out as they near 185 doesn't give us much profit potential.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
A mediocre day in gold today. I still think gold's a good buy, but people get antsy paying this much for the stuff. Standing aside for tomorrow.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
If silver was trading a little lower, say near the 780 support, I'd sell the life out of it tomorrow. As it is, today's setback and corresponding hook in RSI might be nothing more than a hiccup.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Yes, I'm biting my nails too, but right now there's not enough room to do too much with the stops. You can put them below today's low if that makes you feel any better.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Tomorrow is likely to be an important day in coffee as the market tests important support at the 100 area. You could leave the trade as is, or tighten the numbers in anticipation of a bounce.

*BUY December Coffee at 102.65
*Stop 101.45
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 106.45
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1425 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton continued sharply lower today. I guess it was a good thing we took our lumps early yesterday. Even when we're wrong about market direction, support and resistance still works to keep our losses as small as possible.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
We didn't get another retracement day, but the market did stay below the 118 resistance, so we can use this level to buy the market long tomorrow. It's Friday though, so I'll give the market a little more room on the entry side.

*BUY January OJ at 118.658
*Stop 117.35
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $195 per contract
*Profit Target: 124.85
*Approximate Profit Potential: $930 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
March Sugar SBH6
----------
Sugar fell off a bit today which is fine with me. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow, but if we see another lower day then I'll consider bracketing the trade.

*Buy March Sugar at 1203
*Stop 1183
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $224 per contract
*Profit Target: 1293
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1008 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

Erich's Update for Thursday, October 27, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, October 27, 2005
==================================================
No Trades from Tom tonight.

"I want to live life as a poor man with lots of money." - Picasso
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
Ho hum. Higher lower. The AD continues to chop. A dip back to 7475 might get me looking to buy again.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
Looks like the BP might give us another go after yesterday's big rally. We could see the market find support as early as tomorrow around 176.40.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
I wasn't expecting the CD to continue as strongly as it did today...but it did anyway. Still on the lookout for the next good buying opportunity. We're likely to see resistance tomorrow.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
The EC stalled today and will likely give us a tradable formation in a day or two. Still watching in the meantime.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
The Yen confirmed resistance today by trading lower. I'll sell the market tomorrow if we see a break of today's support. I'm covering the position above the 8700 line; however I understand it's a lot of money to risk. You could sweeten the deal by placing stops above the close...it should work.

*SELL December Japanese Yen at 8667
*Stop 8703
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 8553
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1425 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
Still nothing new in the Peso as the market won't commit to going anywhere right now.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
Unlike the other currencies the Swiss Franc is at a testpoint today. I'm not thrilled with the setup however, so I think I'll pass, but it looks as though the market might reverse and head lower.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
The USD moved away from our sell order today...but that's okay. I realize it was framed a little tight so this gives us a little extra room to move. I'll run the same trade tomorrow.

*SELL December US Dollar Index at 8893
*Stop 8923
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8763
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
Would you look at those ranges? Incredible. I still think gas has more left to the upside; however the support on the last few days is almost too much to pass up. While this is a HIGH risk trade it could work out nicely if we get a strong break below support.

*SELL December Unleaded Gas at 160.35
*Stop 161.55
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $504 per contract
*Profit Target: 153.55
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2856 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
Heating Oil scares me a little more than Gas because the setup isn't as tight. Yes, we got a good reaction off resistance today, but RSI is still short of a test. I'd fell better if we were a little closer.

Nothing for now.
----------
January Crude Oil CLF6
----------

Crude is looking a touch more cooperative that Heating Oil however, so I'll look to sell a break below today's low. Actually I'm selling the support just below the low and covering above the 6130 resistance. Risky, risky, risky!

First stop is support at 5950, but we could see the market continue lower until the 5750 area.

*SELL January Crude at 6090
*Stop 6135
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 5955
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1350 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
Shoot! The ED gapped our entry today. There's no point in chasing the market trying to get a fill, but I might try using the same parameters from yesterday, but substitute a limit order instead of our traditional stops.

Who knows, we might end up scalping the high?

*SELL September Eurodollar at 95.235 (limit)
*Stop 95.310
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $188 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.005
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
The Dow behaved today and stayed away from our support area. The market is now at an RSI test, so if the index falls off we should get a good fill. Running the same trade again tomorrow.

*SELL December mini-Dow at 10327
*Stop 10387
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 10077
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1250 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
The NAS is still making it tough to take a trade. If the NAS follows the Dow lower we've got support at 1570 which we'll need to clear before selling.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
Here too we might be a touch early, but I'm taking my lead from the Dow. I'll look to sell the S&P below the 1190 support and cover on the other side of the 1195 resistance.

*SELL December mini-S&P at 1189.50
*Stop 1196.50
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract
*Profit Target: 1147.50
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2100 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Hurray! We can finally bring our corn trade to breakeven! Unless we make some substantial gains over the next couple of days we might be here a while as well. There's support at 195 that could cause some problems.
----------
December Oats OZ5 ----------

Oats look poised to head lower as the market found the 163 support today. This is also trendline support, and technically the last chance for the bulls to step up, otherwise the market belongs to the bears and lower prices are all but assured.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
I'm really beginning to like Rice because of it's respect for S&R. Prices made a hard dive away from the 725 resistance today and the low close would suggest lower prices tomorrow. I'll run the buy order one more day in case we see an abrupt reversal.

*BUY November Rice at 726.5
*Stop 718.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 787.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1220 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Soy meal continues to channel today, but RSI is at a testpoint so I might bracket the resistance and support and trade the breakout side. This trade is a bit on the risky side as we've still got strong support at 165 and strong resistance at 175 which could foil our plan.

*SELL December Soy Meal at 167.9
*Stop 170.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 160.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*BUY December Soy Meal at 172.3
*Stop 169.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 181.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean oil has quite a few elements of a doable trade: strong support to sell from, good resistance to cover the trade, reasonable risk; but we are missing a feasible profit target.

The first profit target is support at 2250, but this gives us a little over $400 per contract...not enough for a good return on our money.
----------
January Soybean SF6
----------
Beans fell off a bit today and is hunting for direction. RSI is pointing lower and short of a testpoitn which could stall any downside move. We've got resistance and support that should give us another entry if we see a move tomorrow.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Nice support wheat, but the trend doesn't look so strong as the market approaches the contract lows. I thought about selling it anyway...but I think I'll wait.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
----------
If you're still short Feeders the market fell off enough today that you can inch your stops above today's high. It might be a little soon to bring them to breakeven, but I know you're anxious!
----------
December Live Cattle LCZ5
----------
Was yesterday the "last hurrah" for Cattle? Today the market reversed on itself and looks decisively more bearish. I think we will see prices head lower tomorrow, but we're technically in an uptrend so I'll wait just a little longer.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Big reversal in hogs today but the market still held support from the last few days. This is encouraging for our sell position as it increases the likelihood of being right if/when we get a breakout.

*SELL December Lean Hogs at 5967
*Stop 6015
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 5782
*Approximate Profit Potential: $740 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Yeeech! I'll need to take some Gravol to trade a market that's this choppy!
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Interesting, gold bounced off the RSI downtrend line, so now it will test the uptrend line in a day or two. We'll get a trade out of this yet, but we'll have to be patient.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Silver is likely to follow gold higher or lower, and while I think lower is more likely I can't sell just yet - we're still in an uptrend.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Got filled long today as cocoa barely poked through the resistance. The higher closing price is encouraging for tomorrow though. I really don't care too much, so long as I can get the trade to breakeven.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee's rally is looking a bit closer today after prices dropped to support at 101. A bounce here tomorrow could see me tighten my entry, otherwise I'll run the trade as is.

*BUY December Coffee at 107.65
*Stop 106.45
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 112.85
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1950 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton reversed on us today and stopped us out of our position for a small loss. I had high hopes for this trade, unfortunately the lack of momentum is making it tough to stay in a position.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ fell off a bit today, showing us resistance. Actually it didn't have to show us, we knew it was there, but now everyone knows for sure. I want to buy the market long again but I'm hoping we can get one more retracement day out of the deal. Pretty please?
----------
March Sugar SBH6
----------
Sugar's ready to head higher tomorrow as RSI has already tipped us off to the move. I'm moving my buy order to the other side of 1200 because I don't trust sugar. Hopefully this will help keep me on the right side of the market.

*Buy March Sugar at 1203
*Stop 1183
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $224 per contract
*Profit Target: 1293
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1008 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
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==================================================
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