Thursday, October 27, 2005

Erich and Tom's Updates for Wednesday, October 26, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, October 26, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you! Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!

"I want to live life as a poor man with lots of money." - Picasso
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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There goes the AD today! The RSI bounce as well as support 7450 pushed the market higher today. Our sell order was never found, but that's okay - no harm, no foul.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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I guess I should have bought the market above the 178 resistance today, huh? Oh well, trading in hindsight is easy. We'll have another chance to buy in a day or two.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD rallied today as anticipated. What wasn't anticipated was the strength of the rally...what a big day! We're back in bull country now folks, so keep a lookout for the next good buying opportunity.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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I had a feeling the market was taking too long to break support and today that was confirmed. Now that we have a *new* trend established we should be able to buy on the next sign of resistance.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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The Yen has been a little more stubborn about giving up the downtrend, but rates did rally today. We're still technically in a bear trend, but that could change over the next couple of days.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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I supposed hurricane Wilma has put the brakes on the Peso as the market continues to make the same range day after day. We'll proably end up bracketing the range and trading the breakout, but not tomorrow.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swiss Franc also established a new trend today as rates had a strong rally. As with the other currencies we're on the lookout for resistance so we can buy again.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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Of course the USD had to fall off today given the strong rallies in the other currency markets. Here we have a more solid support line to sell however, in case the market continues lower. It's a bit of a tight entry, and I hope it doesn't bite us, but the trade looks promising.

*SELL December US Dollar Index at 8893
*Stop 8923
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8763
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
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Here comes the rally we were looking for. Expect Gas to continue to rally for the next couple of sessions before we look to sell again.
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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Heating Oil followed Gas today and like Gas we can expect the rally to continue for at least a couple more sessions before we sell.
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January Crude Oil CLF6
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Big bounce off support today as prices easily broke the RSI test to the upside. We're against strong resistance right now, but look for prices to rally until 6400 before we are likely to get a reversal.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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The ED gave us confirmation of resistance today as the market dipped to support at 9525. I'll sell this market tomorrow if rates continue lower and cover the trade above intermediate resistance at 9530.

*SELL September Eurodollar at 95.235
*Stop 95.310
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $188 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.005
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow gave us a bit of a reaction off today's high. The market is also approaching an RSI test, and while it is a touch short, we might get a reaction tomorrow.

I'll try to sell a break of today's low, but it might turn out to be a touch early.

*SELL December mini-Dow at 10327
*Stop 10387
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 10077
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1250 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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While the Dow and the NAS follow each out around, we're getting a slightly different look from the mini-NAS; therefore I'll wait until the market confirms resistance before selling.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P should also move with the Dow, however here too we have a slightly different setup. RSI is not at a testpoint yet, so I would expect the market to rally a little further. If we get a confirmation of resistance tomorrow however, then we can look to sell on Thursday.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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You can inch your stops a bit closer today and put them either above the 202 resistance, or bring them to breakeven if you like. We should expect to see the market continue lower tomorrow, but it's sure taking its time.
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats gave us a wicked reversal today stopping us out of our position, and after such a nice fill yesterday too! It looks like the market might continue lower after all, but I don't have anything new here tomorrow.
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November Rice RRX5
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Rice showed us some support today and is getting closer to resuming the uptrend. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow in case we see a rally.

*BUY November Rice at 725.5
*Stop 718.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 787.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1220 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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I'm still not quite sure what to make of soy meal. Right now it looks as though the downtrend is intact, but I won't sell the market just yet.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean oil has its head into the 2400 resistance (again). If we see a reversal here tomorrow, which I think we might, then we can try to sell in on Thursday.
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January Soybean SF6
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As expected beans did rally today. Did you notice the high? Yep, 594. Now you know why I was hesitating about the 595 line, right? Like the other bean markets, I'm not convinced as per the new market direction - yet. I'll just watch here tomorrow.
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December Wheat WZ5
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There's the first sign of support we were looking for. I'm going to push my luck and expect the market to make a bit of a pullback over the next couple of days, before we get another chance to sell.
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5: MEATS
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November Feeder Cattle FCX5
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If you brought your stops in today you would have been tagged as the market ranged slightly higher. If you left the stops in their original placement, the *ideal* spot, then you're still short Feeders.

Hopefully the market will continue lower tomorrow however, and allow us to safely bring in our stops, at least to breakeven.
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December Live Cattle LCZ5
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The good news is the 9030 line helped us keep our losses to a minimum today, the bad news is we got whipped out of our short trade. Nothing new here tomorrow.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs continue to consolidate today, but I'll run the sell order as is for tomorrow. If the market rallies I might consider tightening our order to reflect the new numbers.

*SELL December Lean Hogs at 5967
*Stop 6015
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 5782
*Approximate Profit Potential: $740 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Don't tell me copper reacted early! Today's rally also hooked the RSi indicator, but it happened before the testpoint. We'll see what happens tomorrow, maybe it was a false break.
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December Gold GCZ5
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No surprise that gold rallied today from weakness in the USD. RSI is at a testpoint, so a bounce is possible tomorrow. If we get a breakout higher then that will confirm the trend and get us looking to buy again.
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December Silver SIZ5
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I guess I should have bought silver today like I thought. Good to know the ole hindsight is still 20/20.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa showed a bit of resistance today. That's the trouble with a weak trending market: choppiness. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow, but it's still a very high risk trade.

*BUY December Cocoa at 1421
*Stop 1397
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 1497
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee continues to consolidate, and that's fine. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow. A rally is coming...I just don't know when!

*BUY December Coffee at 107.65
*Stop 106.45
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 112.85
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1950 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Cotton CTZ5
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We got filled in our cotton trade today as prices rallied through resistance. I'm hoping to see the market continue higher tomorrow so that we can adjust our stops a bit. Ideally you'll want to leave them where they are until tomorrow, but if you wanted to tighten them you could place them below the 5460 resistance, or the 5480 intraday resistance.
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November OJ OJX5
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Yep, here we go again....
Nothing new tomorrow, but we've got to get another chance to buy here!
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March Sugar SBH6
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Sugar gave us one more day, as per request, so I guess I'll have to get serious about buying it. RSI is hooking early of the trendline, so I'll give the entry a little more elbow room before buying. I'd like to reserve entry until the other side of 1200, but that will put too much money at risk.

*Buy March Sugar at 1197
*Stop 1173
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 1293
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1075 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, October 24, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=3-02 HI=3-12 LO=2-13 CL=2-14

I bought 113-04 hung on thru a rough patch and exited at -08 for 4 ticks, $125. I sold one at -07. Bonds dipped to 113-00 and started moving sideways, I jumped out at -01 for 6 more, $187. We then sold 112-28 and exited at -24 trying to get -23 for 4 more, $125. I gave it up for the day. I was a little premature in doing so. We probably had enough time to catch that last sell at -28/-27 and maybe we'd have picked up another 10 or so.

The close at 112-14 has us focused on 112-16 or 112-00.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.380 HI=.390 LO=.345 CL=.345

We remain short from 95.450. I still have the stop at 95.420. We got a nice little pop lower rather handily dispatching .370. I moved my stop to .365 near end of day protecting the just broken.370. Now the question becomes is this a real break out or the last gasp of a dying trend ... an interesting contemplation.

If we don't break lower I will look to exit as best I can. If we DO break lower I will take it at .300 without a second thought. If we open below .345 I will immediately move my stop there and begin squeezing the market.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=42 HI=32 LO=26 CL=14

The run higher began righ tat 8460 and never gave us a shot at an entry number I liked or could justify. We missed a great move despite nailing the numbers. Sometimes that happens and there really isn't much that can be done. It's just a part of the game. Move on.

We'll play 8460 as per TT and add 8560, 8440 and 8520 to the mix. Seel only at 8560.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=04 HI=87 LO=66 CL=77

We had to watch most of the day but finally bought 7840 and exited at 7880 for 40 points, $500. That ws it for the day. For tomorrow we'l play all our TT numbers plus add 7880 to the mix.

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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=8.50 HI=8.60 LO=7.90 CL=4.70

We started the day selling 646.50 and geting stopped out at 646.80 losing $20. I bought 645.10 and exited at 646.90 for $180. We bought 645.50 and exited 648.80 for $330. We then sold 646.70 and out at 642.20 for $450. I then bought 642.30 ans exited at 642.50 for $20. Done for the day.

All the numbers tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=9.20 HI=5.80 LO=8.90 CL=4.70

No confirmation=no trade. Frustrating. $10 channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.48 HI=.34 LO=.10 CL=.23

I bought 54.55 and exited at 54.95 picking up 40 points, $200. We'll go again tomorrow with the same array of numbers from TT.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=00 HI=08 LO=88 CL=03

It was choppy all day and never gave us a real shot at anything. Same TT numbers for tomorrow.

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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=1.99 HI=2.00 1/2 LO=1.98 3/4 CL=1.99 1/2

Watching only.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.24 HI=3.26 1/2 LO=3.23 CL=3.25 1/2

I sold 3.26 1/4 and exited at 3.24 1/4 for 2 cents, $100. My 2 cents. I'll play 'em again tomorrow, 2.22 1/2 and 3.26 1/2.

Erich and tom's Updates for Tuesday, October 25, 2005

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Market Update for Tuesday, October 25, 2005
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Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!

"I want to live life as a poor man with lots of money." - Picasso
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The AD continued to honour support today, but I have to say that the RSI hook is making me a bit nervous about tomorrow. There's still not a lot of trend here, but I'll run the trade again tomorrow.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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Not much to report in the Pound today as prices continue to struggle for direction.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD gapped our entry today thereby voiding the trade. We could see rates rally after this "fade" day, but I'm standing aside for tomorrow.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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It's not looking so hot for our sell order as the EC continues to hold up on support. Normally we would have seen a breakout by now, but the market doesn't have much momentum left. We could see a rally as a result but I'm sticking with the trend for now.

*SELL December EuroFX at 119.37
*Stop 119.73
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.61
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2200 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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The Yen tagged us out of the open for a $350 loss. Definitely not the way I wanted to start the week. I still like this market short; however these ranges are getting brutal. I think I'll give it tomorrow off.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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The Peso is still quite rangebound and looking for direction. Once the market finds it though, it should be a strong move.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swiss Franc is looking a little stronger again, but the market will need to clear resistance at 7900 before I get more serious about buying.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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Not much to say for the USD either as the market traded within Friday's range. Just watching tomorrow.
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
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Gas continues to hover around 161 - 162 support. I'm half tempted to sell tomorrow; however I think I'll wait for the market to refresh itself a bit.
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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Heating Oil took the lead from the energies and fell off today. This market is too far gone for us to catch it now, but we could get a chance in crude.
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January Crude Oil CLF6
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Crude neared the RSI testpoint today, so we could see a reaction tomorrow as a result. I would look to sell the market below last week's low and cover the trade below today's support. It's a tight trade to say the least, but hopefully the momentum will keep us out of whipsaw range.

*SELL January Crude at 5925
*Stop 5980
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $550 per contract
*Profit Target: 5675
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2500 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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The ED continues to choppy as rates fell off a bit today. I still like the market short and will focus on selling below the 9527 area.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow got one step closer to our next selling opportunity today as the market traded a little higher. We've got resistance on today's high, but I think the 10450 line could be more influential.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS finds itself at an RSI test today. If the market reverses off of here tomorrow I'll look to sell. A break higher will get me looking to buy.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P also rallied off support today. We could see the market continue higher, but I'll hold off for the moment.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Well whaddaya know, corn finally fell through support! This means we can adjust our stop if you like and bring it above the 202 1/2 - 203 resistance. First profit target is support at 190, but watch out around 195.
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats gave us a nice fill on a break through resistance today. You can leave exit stops where they are or bring them in below today's low if you choose.
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November Rice RRX5
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Rice is finally giving us a buy signal as RSI is at a testpoint. I will look to buy the market above the 724 - 725 resistance, and cover the trade below intermediate support at 720, but you could use today's low as well.

*BUY November Rice at 725.5
*Stop 718.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $160 per contract
*Profit Target: 787.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1220 per contract
*RRR: 7 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy meal showed us support today, but the market is technically in a downtrend, so I'll wait for confirmation before buying. Likewise if prices trade lower tomorrow it will confirm the downtrend and we can look to sell.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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A typical Bean Oil day as prices gap lower on the open and then fade the rest of the session. It looks like there will be higher prices tomorrow, but I'll wait and see.
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January Soybean SF6
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Beans are likely to rally tomorrow; however I'm having a tough time putting in a low risk trade with the resistance at 595 just overhead. With a bit of luck the market will hold up here tomorrow and give us another chance Wednesday.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat reversed and headed lower today, which was a bit of a surprise. The downside momentum is definitely building, so if we see a hestiation we'll look to get in short.
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5: MEATS
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November Feeder Cattle FCX5
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A tiny day in Feeders, but they did trade low enough that we can bring our stops to breakeven if you like. The *ideal* stop placement is still above 115, but I wouldn't blame you for tightening the stops at least a bit. An intermediate stop would be above 114.60.
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December Live Cattle LCZ5
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Not the best day for our cattle trade, but we're still in the market for the time being. The good news is that a break above our stops at 9030 will mean we're on the wrong side of the trade and it's time to go.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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A big range in Hogs today, but the market didn't find our order. I'll run the trade again tomorrow, but I am expecting a bit of a pullback first.

*SELL December Lean Hogs at 5967
*Stop 6015
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 5782
*Approximate Profit Potential: $740 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Copper was a little tamer today...but not much. If we see another test of support tomorrow then I'll look to buy the market on Wednesday.
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December Gold GCZ5
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We could sell gold tomorrow, but I'm going to give the market one more day. We might get an RSI test out of the deal as well which would make for a more predictable trade.
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December Silver SIZ5
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It's really tempting to try and buy silver off the trendline bounce; however we're trading at some pretty significant levels, historically speaking. I think I'll just watch tomorrow.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Here we go again with cocoa. I'll run the trade from last week tomorrow but it's still a risky trade.

*BUY December Cocoa at 1421
*Stop 1397
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $240 per contract
*Profit Target: 1497
*Approximate Profit Potential: $760 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee backed off our buy order today, but that's okay. I'll run the weekend trade again tomorrow.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Not what I was expecting for cotton today as the market continued to trade below resistance. I'll run the weekend trade again tomorrow, but remember it's a HIGH risk trade.
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November OJ OJX5
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I was thinking about buying OJ over the weekend because of the RSI test as well as the hurricane threat. I passed on the trade, but the market is still looking strong. The opening gap would have voided the trade (again) but if we see a bit of resistance off 115.50 I'll look to buy in on Wednesday.
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October Sugar SBV5
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One more day sugar...then I'll look to buy.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, October 24, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=3-20 HI=3-24 LO=2-27 CL=3-03

Not to slight our good friends in Florida who are suffering from Wilma but, it could've been much worse than it was. As aresult everyone pretty much moved on the other factors in trying to figure out market movement. The stock market had good news in Bush's selection to succeed Greenspan and without the worries of another catstrophic hurricane hit we were off to the races. Bonds fell back about 3/4 of a point as all the parked pre hurricane money leapt back into the market.

Our idea that -24 might be a good play certainly was. Just didn't give us an early trade to capitalize. Our first trade was the sell of -14 which we exited at -03 for 11 ticks, $343. Bonds bounced back to -09 and failed, I sold -07 and exited at 112-31 for 8 more, $250.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.400 HI=.415 LO=.380 CL=.390

We remain short from 95.450. I now have the stop at 95.420, just a tick above today's high. We made it down to .380 and then bounced. It would appear we are respecting .370. If we don't get thru 37 in the next few sessions I'll look to start challenging the market to come get me with a squeeze.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=39 HI=55 LO=00 CL=36

We moved much lower in the overnight. By the time t=he RTH session opened we were trading near 8400. Nothing for us today. For tomorrow we'll stay on the same numbers at 8460. In addition we'll add 8400 and play it either way ... sell a break below or buy a retest that fails to break lower.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=75 HI=33 LO=61 CL=03

About 20 minutes before the open of the RTH session we were trading 7766/68. We just missed a nice one. SF ran all the way up to 7833. I considered that a failure at 40 and sold 30. As we broke 7800 I rolled to 7803. It tried to go lower once again and failed. This time I moved the stop to the other side of 7800 at 7799. They stopped us at 7801 for $362
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=5.20 HI=8.80 LO=4.40 CL=8.60

I missed the first increment of the move. It took off like a rocket and left me in the dust. I sold 641.50 and exited at 642.50 losing $100. I then sold 641.60 and exited at .70 for a $10 loss. I bought 642.60 and exited at B/E after the big failure at 643.70. I sold 641.70 and exited at 639.40 for $230. Next up I bought 642.40 and exited 643.30 on another good sized failure picking up $90. I then bought 642.40 and out at 644.70 for $230. The day then turned into nothing but 643/645 chop. I bid then good day. Of course that means I missed the big $500 move late in the session. No worries. Total on the day, $440.

All the numbers tomorrow
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=7.00 HI=0.90 LO=5.60 CL=7.00

Nothing for us today. It actually did throw us a sell very late in the day. Too late for me. $10 channel tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.35 HI=.65 LO=.75 CL=.03

I bought 54.56 and got slammed ... out at 54.25 losing $150. We'll go again tomorrow with the same array of numbers from TT.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=70 HI=12 LO=69 CL=08

A little payback for the shabby way the russell and Cotton treated us ... yeah sure. We bought 1372. It went right to our target at 1410 and failed I saw the potential and put in an exit limit at 1409 and got it. $370.

Same TT numbers for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.01 1/4 HI=2.01 1/2 LO=1.99 1/4 CL=1.99 1/2

Watching only. You know Brenda Lee, Spike Lee and Peggy Lee ... well, meet UG Lee.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.28 HI=3.29 1/2 LO=3.22 1/2 CL=3.23 1/4

It blew right by us, not a chance for the sell. Dang. I'll take a shot tomorrow at buying a retest of 3.22 1/2 if we fail and turn back north at that point. Penny and a half on the stop.