Monday, October 24, 2005

Erich and Tom's Updates for Wednesday, October 19, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, October 19, 2005
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Hot off the commodity presses to you!
"I may not be there yet, but I'm closer than I was yesterday." - Anonymous
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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Still not clear sell signal from the Aussie, but I am considering shorting below today's low. Did you notice the support level that it is sitting on?
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December British Pound BPZ5
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A pretty substantial fade day in the BP today as prices opened on support and rallied higher. It will be interesting to see if this continues tomorrow or not.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD continues to flutter and rallied higher today relative to the open. The market is technically in a downtrend, but the trend is weak at best.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The EC is just as wishy-washy as the other currency markets; however we have a very nice hit on the 119.50 support which is almost too good to pass up.

Note that the EC can make incredible ranges and might dip below 119.50 just for the heck of it, but if the breakout has any momentum it could be a nice trade.

*SELL December EuroFX at 119.37
*Stop 119.73
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.61
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2200 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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How unfortunate that we weren't able to ride out last Friday's range in the Yen as the market made a huge move to the downside today. We need to wait for some support before we can look to sell again.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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The Peso is plugging along. Nothing to write home about yet, but at least we can get stops to breakeven.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swissy is giving us a similar formation as what we saw in the EC, but it's not as tight. I would look to sell a break below today's low and cover the trade above intermediate resistance. I'm not sure we'll get a fill, but if we do I hope the breakout carries some momentum with it.

*SELL December Swiss Franc at 7693
*Stop 7733
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 7553
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1750 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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That was quite a rally from the USD today. I thought about buying the market tomorrow; however the ranges are such that we would have too much at risk, so I'll wait.
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
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A rather abrupt reversal in Gas today. I thought for sure we would see a test of the 185 - 186 area, but I guess not. Looks like the bears might have things under control again...now we just need a good place to sell from.
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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I'm not crazy about how quickly the market has become overbought and while the 194 support is still solid I'm not feeling as comfortable about this trade tomorrow as when I suggested it on the weekend.

But this is trading the charts, not trading my feelings, so....

*SELL December Heating Oil at 193.90
*Stop 195.10
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $504 per contract
*Profit Target: 188.75
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2163 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Crude Oil CLZ5
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We got filled in our Crude short late today. I'm not that happy with the fill as prices barely broke support long enough to find the order. The good news is that resistance held, so we're still in the trade for now.

I'm not getting my hopes up however. We should know early tomorrow whether we're in the clear or not.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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The ED moved away from our entry today and got closer to an RSI test point at the same time. We might see a reversal tomorrow, or before the weekend. I'll run the same trade as yesterday.

*SELL September (06) Eurodollar at 95.245
*Stop 95.290
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $112 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.035
*Approximate Profit Potential: $525 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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We got our confirmation of resistance today so I will look to sell a break of today's low. I'm not crazy about selling the market this close to the 10260 support, but this is the only way to keep risk to managable level.

*SELL December mini-DOW at 10273
*Stop 10317
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 10077
*Approximate Profit Potential: $980 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS is still looking like a good sell tomorrow as we're firmly into an RSI test. I'll run the same numbers as yesterday.

*SELL December mini-NAS at 1539.5
*Stop 1550.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 1506.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $660 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P also confirmed resistance today and was the most aggressive of the three minidices. I'll look to short the market below nearby support, but have to admit that the numbers are pretty weak.

*SELL December mini-S&P at 1176.50
*Stop 1182
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 1155.50
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1050 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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I can hardly believe that we didn't get stopped out of our corn trade today. We're far from being out of the woods, but this is definitely a good start. Leave exit stops where they are for one more day...and keep your fingers crossed!
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats continued lower today never threatening our buy order. The market is at an important support point at 161 which also coincides with trendline support. It's break or bounce time tomorrow and while I could set up a trade either way, I think I'll wait for the reaction.
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November Rice RRX5
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Rice continues to hover at our 723 - 724 support zone. I would like to see one more day at this support level after which I would get very aggressive about another buy.

*BUY November Rice at 750.5
*Stop 739.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 787.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $740 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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It looks like it was a good thing we took profits where we did as Soy Meal made a nasty gap to the downside today. We should have another buy coming up in a day or so...but not tomorrow.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil traded slightly lower today, filling yesterday's gap. I'm not sure what to make of this market at the moment but I would prefer to buy rather than sell. Still looking for where and when.
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November Soybean SX5
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Looks like the big Bean market might go hunting for support over the next few days. I'll just watch tomorrow.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Today's nice bear session makes me wish I had sold wheat today after all. Now we're on hold until the market shows us support, but we shouldn't have too long to wait.
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5: MEATS
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November Feeder Cattle FCX5
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Feeders recoverd somewhat today. I know this market is in an extreme bull trend and we should look to buy...but I'm not ready just yet.
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December Live Cattle LCZ5
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Cattle gave us a reaction off support today as we expected. Now it remains to be seen if the original trend will continue, or if this is just a short term pause before prices fall off again.

Truth be told I'm not sure which it is yet...but once I can figure it out, or put on a trade without too much risk, I'll be all over it!
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs finally paused after this week's big decline. Hopefully we will see a bit of a pullback over the next day or two so that we can get a better selling price.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Copper stalled out today, which isn't the best news for the bulls. We could see prices fall off from here tomorrow, but I don't see anything tradable.
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December Gold GCZ5
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A smallish day in gold today as prices traded within yesterday's range, but that's not usually very encouraging. If you brought your stops in below yesterday's low you would have been stopped out for a small loss, but if you left them at their original placement then you're still in this trade.

I have to confess that I'm not holding a lot of hope for this trade right now. I'll be happy if we can just get it to breakeven.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Silver backed off the highs today. I'll run the same trade again tomorrow in case we see the bulls gather new momentum.

*BUY December Silver at 797.5
*Stop 791.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 820.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa seems to be showing us support today, and I'm not sure if I'm ready to run the weekend trade again, or if I should wait a day. I think I'll wait.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee's session today is hinting of a pullback around the corner. This would be welcome of course, as we might have another chance at buying this market.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton traded lower today, but the high closing price would hint of higher prices to follow tomorrow. You can run yesterday's trade again tomorrow if you like, or just watch and see what we get.
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November OJ OJX5
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Sure OJ...rub a little salt in the wound why don't ya?
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October Sugar SBV5
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Yes, I know sugar rallied today showing us support. No, I'm not ready to buy it yet.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, October 18, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=2-15 HI=2-28 LO=2-10 CL=2-22

We dodged the first bullet on the open but they nailed us with the second one. Been a long time since this happened.

The market moved higher on the open, touching -21 I was trying to buy it but couldn't get the fill. Good thing, too, as it gapped from -20 to -15. I sold -14, Bonds moved to -11 and I rolled to B/E. It blew thru our stop at -14 and filled us at -17 for a loss of 3 ticks.

We went to -21 and then sideways for a while. I bought -21 and exited at -26 when it failed a second time at -28. I bought -21 a second time and was stopped out at B/E. That ended my day.

The close at 112-22 sets up 112-16 and 113-00 for tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.395 HI=.415 LO=.385 CL=.395

Working on the structure like a busy little bee. Not yet, though. I can sure smell that pot simmerin' though.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=92 HI=10 LO=32 CL=90

I bought 8452 and got slammed. We had the stop at 8447 and the fill came in at 8442 losing $100. I bought 8455. We went to 8478 ... gee what a surprise, NOT. I exited at 74 for $190.

We'll stay with the same numbers for tomorrow ... TT and 8475.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=71 HI=74 LO=98 CL=37

Nothing here today for us.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=5.90 HI=7.90 LO=6.40 CL=7.60

We began the day selling 634.50 which we exited at 631.30 for $320. Bought 632.50 which was stopped at B/E. Bought 32.50 again and exited at 634.70 for $220. Next we sold 634.70 and out at 635.30 losing $60. We then sold 634.50 and exited at 633.10 for $140. Next! Sold 634.70 and exited at 629.10 ... "once broken" at 629. Picked up $560. All done at $1180 on the $1000 rule.

All the numbers tomorrow
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=4.20 HI=5.90 LO=2.80 CL=4.60

Nothing doin'.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.70 HI=.75 LO=.52 CL=.37

I opened up selling 55.45 and exited at 54.90 for 55 points, $275. I bought 55.10 and took my leave at 55.20 for $50. Done for the day.

We'll go again tomorrow with the same array of numbers form TT plus 56.00.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O-70 HI-92 LO-70 CL-86

That's what I'm talkin' 'bout! Bought at 1372 and out at 1387 $150. Same numbers from yesterday for tomorrow.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.03 3/4 HI=2.04 LO=2.01 3/4 CL=2.02

Little more range today but still mired in the La Brea Tar Pits. I'll buy the bounce off 2.02 tomorrow.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.34 1/4 HI=3.35 LO=3.28 1/2 CL=3.28 3/4

Dang, Kemosabe! Had 'em dead to rights and it didn't give us the shot unless we'd held it over night.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Tuesday, October 18, 2005

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Market Update for Tuesday, October 18, 2005 ==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you! Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades.

"I may not be there yet, but I'm closer than I was yesterday." - Anonymous
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The Aussie Dollar is still all over the place. This market is going to be choppy until it finally commits to a trend.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The BP fell off substantially today. We're going to get a support test in the next couple of days, probably around 174.20, as well as an RSI testpoint. This will be crucial in determining the market's future direction.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD is still reacting to support at 8450. If we see one more day trade higher then I'll get really serious about selling again. Nothing new here tomorrow.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The EC also reacted today, and I'm not quite sure what to make of it. One thing's for certain, I won't be buying until we clear last week's high.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Too bad we weren't able to ride out the Yen's rally last Friday as today rates traded much lower. We could look to sell below last week's low; however the market is a little unsettled. I wouldn't mind seeing things tighten up a bit.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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Bought the Peso this morning on a nice breakout through resistance. You can bring your stops to either breakeven, or just below today's low for tomorrow's session.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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Ouch! That REALLY hurt as we got stopped out on today's low open. Darn opening gaps!

I should be selling the SF below today's support tomorrow; however we'll have another chance at the contract lows if rates continue lower tomorrow.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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Not a good way to start the week as the USD stopped us out of our position as well today. At least it didn't gap, so as to add insult to injury, and found our exit stop the old fashioned way.
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
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Gas rallied today, as expected. Look for prices to continue higher for at least a day or two. The 186 area looks like the first resistance to higher prices.
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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Big gap higher as Heating Oil rallied today as well. Here too we will probably see the market continue higher for the short term. You can run the weekend trade tomorrow if you like, but you probably won't see a fill.
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December Crude Oil CLZ5
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The only difference between crude and the other energies is that the market is at an RSI test right now. As such I'll look to sell crude on a break below today's low. I should mention that this is a very risky trade.

*SELL December Crude at 6215
*Stop 6265
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 5955
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2600 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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This might be a little premature, but the ED is trading back at the 9527 support from the other day. If rates break last week's low we can sell the market, and cover above the 9527 area for resistance.

*SELL September (06) Eurodollar at 95.245
*Stop 95.290
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $112 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.035
*Approximate Profit Potential: $525 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow took off today, and while the market is at an important resistance area, we haven't got a confirmation to sell just yet. I'll hold off another day and wait for a reaction.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS also rallied today, but unlike the Dow or the S&P, RSI is at a testpoint so I'll put together an order in case we see a reaction.

*SELL December mini-NAS at 1539.5
*Stop 1550.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 1506.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $660 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P also rallied today, but like the DOW we don't have a confirmation to sell yet. If we get a reaction tomorrow to confirm resistance we can sell the market after that, but for tomorrow I'll just watch.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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We're still holding on to our corn short, but just barely. I still don't hold a lot of hope out for this position, but there's nothing we can do with our stops at the moment either.
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December Oats OZ5
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The Oat market found support today on the 164 support line. Expect prices to react and rally higher tomorrow. I'll be placing a very tight trade to buy the market long, but you can relax the parameters a bit if you wanted.

*BUY December Oats at 168 1/4
*Stop 166 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $75 per contract
*Profit Target: 175 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $375 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November Rice RRX5
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Rice hit the 723 - 724 support zone today and reacted appropriately. I thought we'd see RSI reset itself a bit more than this, but maybe not. I'll be placing a buy order above last week's high in case we see a rally.

*BUY November Rice at 750.5
*Stop 739.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 787.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $740 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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We got tagged by Soy Meal today as prices traded low enough to find our exit order. It's not all bad though, as we're walking with $560 per contract in profits. I'll give the market the day off tomorrow, but I'm looking for another chance to buy.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil gapped our entry again and voided our trade. The low close doesn't look all the encouraging anyway, so it might not have been a bad thing. Besides, this is BO, we'll probably get another chance.
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November Soybean SX5
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Not a good day in the big Bean market either, as prices gave us a good whipping. Thank goodness it was only $225.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat filled the gap today so we could see a reaction to this support tomorrow. I'm not getting ahead of myself however, and will only consider buying if we get a reaction tomorrow.
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5: MEATS
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November Feeder Cattle FCX5
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Feeders are at the 20 day moving average support today. This is important as a break here sends us into bear territory and a bounce could mean the bulls might pull it out of the bag.
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December Live Cattle LCZ5
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Cattle followed through with another big bear day today. We should see a reaction tomorrow however, as it's not like cattle to rally (or fall) for more than a couple of days in a row.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs are still running away on us. C'mon guys...give me a break and hesitate!
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Oh-no! We had you, copper! We had you nailed! And then you go an gap on the open! Not fair! Not fair!
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December Gold GCZ5
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Got the Gold fill today as prices rallied through nearby resistance. Something's gotta give though, either gold or the USD. We should know which one tomorrow. You might want to bring your stops in below today's low in case it's gold.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Silver continues to be a strong market as prices rallied again today. We've got another hit on the resistance at the 792.5 line, and we'll use this area to cover a position we initiate above last week's high. Profit target is resistance just under the contract highs.

*BUY December Silver at 797.5
*Stop 791.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 820.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa's lack of a trend is obvious today as prices continue to chop. I'm standing aside tomorrow.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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If you listened to the market minutes audio you know I was humming and hawing about buying coffee again...guess I should have.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton's hit on the high today gives us a way to tighten up this trade considerably. I'll look to enter long above the high from July 5th and cover on the other side of the 5690 resistance.

*BUY December Cotton at 5727
*Stop 5687
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 5891
*Approximate Profit Potential: $820 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November OJ OJX5
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I don't know what to tell you folks. This has been an extremely bad month for gapping markets so far. Today OJ also gapped a perfectly good trade and left us on the sidelines again.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Will sugar get low enough to give us an RSI test? I sure hope so!
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, October 18, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=2-23 HI=2-30 LO=2-16 CL=2-19

We couldn't do anything in the early stages of the session. About 9 am CDT we sold 112-28. At 112-16 we cancel replaced our stop to market and exited at -18 for 10 ticks, $316. That was it for the day. The close at 112-19 has us watching 112-16 and 113-00 for tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.395 HI=.415 LO=.385 CL=.395

Somethings brewing. Not there yet.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=49 HI=07 LO=46 CL=79

I bought 8455. We had a nice run right up to 8500 and change. It was pretty evident the run was over at 8507 as it failed. We made it out at 8503 for $480. We'll play the same number tomorrow plus I will play 8475 either way.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=43 HI=58 LO=74 CL=90

I'll play off 7760 tomorrow but, only with a buy. No Shorts, period. The stop is 53 and we roll to B/E at 7871. The target is 7840. If we get thru there we'll up it to 7940.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=4.40 HI=8.70 LO=7.70 CL=6.00

We opened up the day buying 635.30 and exited at 636.70 for $140. I tried to sell the break of 637 but it was moving too fast. We bought 635.40 and out after a scary ride at 637.70 for $230. Next, we sold 636.60 and exited at 632.30 for $430. I needed to catch my breath a bit so missed a couple of trades that look as thought they might have made some. I sold 631.60 and exited at 632.30 losing $70. I sold 631.60 again and exited at 623.20 losing another $60. I sold 631.60 a third time and exited on a "once broken " play at 629.20 for $240. I bought 630.40 and out at 631.40 for $100. That gave me a tad over a grand ... quittin' time. All the numbers tomorrow
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=3.60 HI=8.00 LO=3.50 CL=6.60

Nothing doin'.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.93 HI=.93 LO=.90 CL=.00

We sold 56.80. I was busy with the Russell and couldn't watch after it took off south. I put in a stop at B/E and a limit at 56.05. We lucked out as it broke 56.00. We're out at 56.05 for 75 points, $375. I came back and found us on our way back up. I sold 56.45 as .50 failed. I again put in a limit as the Russell was calling me and again exited at 56.05 for $200.

We'll add 56.00 to the numbers and go again tomorrow with the same array.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=81 HI=88 LO=65 CL=67

The gap lower at the open killed our plan. But Look where we are ... I get my shot at 1370 after all. We'll play it tomorrow ... pray for no opening gaps. Wanna' bet money on it, nah, me neither. You just know they wouldn't leave it sitting at such a ripe number and actually give us a shot at an entry.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.02 1/2 HI=2.04 1/2 LO=2.01 1/4 CL=2.03 3/4

You just knew it would open right there. Still an observer.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.35 HI=3.39 LO=3.34 1/2 CL=3.36 1/4

I sold 3.37 1/2 twice and got stopped at B/E twice. Same numbers tomorrow.