Monday, October 17, 2005

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition

The Big Weekend Edition has been posted online - check it out at http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive22.html

For a detailed analysis with entries, exits, stops, risk/reward ratio, potential profit for specific markets in this eZine, (and much more) please join us at http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html


Enjoy!

Erich and Tom's Updates for Friday, October 14, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Friday, October 14, 2005
==================================================
Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!

Subscribers get these by email the night before, Test Drivers get theirs after the fact. To get these BEFORE the market opens, you'll have to join us at http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that but the really great make you feel that you too can be great." - Mark Twain
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
What a crazy day in the AD! I don't think I've ever seen a gap like this in ANY market. Wow!
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
The BP broke the RSI trendline today, so we could see a bit of a rally over the next few days. We're still technically in a downtrend so I'm not buying just yet.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The CD tanked hard today stopping us out on the open. I had a bad feeling about this trade when we got such a wishy-washy fill yesterday. Nothing new here tomorrow.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
Did you notice the low today? Yep, right off the 119.50 support. Now that rates have tested here we will probably see them head higher.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
The Yen fell off enough today that we can get our trade to breakeven for tomorrow. If you want to protect some profit you can bring stops above today's high.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
Notice how the Peso stalled on the 90.200 support zone today? That's why it's always tough to buy/sell a market after a strong session. I think I'll put the market on hold for Friday as well.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
I'm glad I resisted selling the SF today. The problem was the support on the contract lows, and today you can see why. Expect the SF to rally tomorrow.

*BUY December Swiss Franc at 7843
*Stop 7797
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $575r contract
*Profit Target: 8143
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3750 contract
*RRR: 6 1/2
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
Today's range was just plain *dirty pool* as the market barely broke resistance and then backed off. I normally don't trade a market after a loss, but I think I'll make an exception tomorrow.

RSI is at a testpoint, so it's decision time in this market. Given the strength in the other currencies, it makes sense that the USD is coming down.

*SELL December US Dollar Index at 8927
*Stop 8957
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8657
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2600 per contract
*RRR: 8 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
As expected, Gas made a big reversal today. Too bad we couldn't find any resistance to trade from! Tomorrow's a different story, as we've got the super strong support at 175 just below today's low. If you've got $500 that you don't need you might consider selling a break.

*SELL December Unleaded Gas at 175.30
*Stop 176.50
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $504 per contract
*Profit Target: 170.10
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2184 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
Heating Oil also reversed today, but RSI is short of a test point so I'm going to hold off one more day to see if we can't get a better signal.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
Same thing for Crude.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
What's with the crummy fills this week? Sold the ED today just after the open as rates hit our entry before reversing. The high close has me a little nervous about tomorrow as well, but there's not much we can do right now.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
Nothing new to report in the DOW. A rather aimless day today. Nothing new here tomorrow.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
The NAS made a big range today hitting our exit stops. Depending where you put them you either left at breakeven or as much as $400 in profit. I only managed to nail the market for $200 myself.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
The S&P also ranged wildly today. If you brought your stops to breakeven you would have been tagged, otherwise you're still short. Bring the stops to breakeven for tomorrow however...just in case.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
I can't believe how corn is stuck between support and resistance. I sure hope we get a strong breakout when it finally comes.

*SELL December Corn at 201 1/4
*Stop 204 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 190 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $525 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*BUY December Corn at 208 1/4
*Stop 205 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 217 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
A less ambitious day in oats today compared to yesterday. You'll want to make certain your stops are at least a breakeven going into the weekend.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Yep, I knew I'd regret not buying rice today. What was my reasoning again? I forget.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
We're in the clear with Soy Meal today as prices continued higher, never threatening our stops. Tomorrow's Friday and a reaction of some sort is likely. If you want to try and *ride* it out, bring stops to 172.3, otherwise make them as tight as you dare. Below today's low looks like a good comprimise.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil is reacting a little early and we could see a good sell coming up next week. I'll avoid doing anything new going into the weekend however.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Beans reacted to the 596 resistance today. RSI is hooking as well, so we'll probably see a lower session tomorrow. That should give us another chance to buy in next week.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
A disappointing end to our wheat trade as prices reversed and took us out at breakeven. Nothing new here tomorrow, but you can expect prices to dip.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
----------
Nope, no pullback in Feeders. I can't believe the strength in this market. This is quite unusual. Really.
----------
December Live Cattle LCZ5
----------
Bought Cattle today on a break above resistance. Here's hoping that the trend takes over and prices continue higher tomorrow, because there's not much we can do with our stops until then.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Hogs finally found a bit of support, and if it wasn't Friday tomorrow I'd place a sell below the lows. As it is I'll see if we don't get a bit of a pullback.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
A big day for the copper bears as the forced the market considerably lower. Keep an eye on 175, that will be an important number tomorrow...I think.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Gold seems to be showing us some support today and if the USD falls off tomorrow, we will likely see prices rally. Nothing new for me - yet.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
It's soooo tempting just to blindly buy silver tomorrow in anticipation of a rally; however I haven't got any suitable numbers to trade from right now.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
After all our hard work in this market, we got stopped out at breakeven today. Nothing new here tomorrow.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee tested support at 9900 today and we could see prices resume the rally tomorrow, but this is a little rich for me going into the weekend.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Wicked range today as only cotton can do. The low close would suggest prices don't want to go any higher, but that's just a guess.
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November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ's getting closer to being a bonafide buy again. I'll continue to run the order tomorrow.

*BUY November OJ at 105.25
*Stop 104.05
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 109.45
*Approximate Profit Potential: $630 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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October Sugar SBV5
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Is that sugar's version of a pullback? Who the heck knows with this market?
==================================================
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==================================================
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========================================================
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Friday, October 14, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=2-20 HI=2-28 LO=2-14 CL=2-23

Action in the electronic just before the RTH open accounted for the gap at the open. We bought -21 and were stopped at B/E. We bought -21 a second time and I exited at -26 for 5 ticks, $156. It was pretty clear we had a nothing day happening so i moved on at that point. The close at 112-23 has us set to play at 113-00 or 112-16.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.375 HI=.420 LO=.370 CL=.415

Not there yet.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=30 HI=32 LO=55 CL=58

We sold 8478 with a stop at 87 as detailed in TT. I rolled to B/E as we broke 70 and wa stopped at B/E. We sold 77 and made it down to 8455 where we rolled to 61. We fill came thru at 66 so we picked up $110. No complaints, that's where the market was.

I'll play the TT numbers again tomorrow. I doubt we'll see 8600 but we'll have another shot at 8480 me thinks.

There was a typo in Tuesday's CD comments ... I meant to say DONE not DOWN ... I corrected it below and reposting the comments here so you get another crack at reading something that will now make better sense.

Let me share with you a bit about my current thoughts on the currencies applicable to both the CD and SF. The volume is being DONE electronically. About this there is no doubt. While I have ben resistant to move my trading into the electronic market there is too much potential for danger to avaoid doing so. I have a bit of the "old dog, new trick" syndrome that's been plaguing me for a while now. It is time to make some changes and move forward. Beginning with this weekend's TT I will switch my currency trading to electronic.

I will only initiate trades during the RTH session much as we do in the Russell. I will occassionally leave trades on thru the entire electronic session with a stop and/or limit order working. I have not yet decided whether I will formulate my trades only of of candles occurring during RTH hours or consider the entire electronic chart. I'm still doing some comparative analysis on this subject. My suspicion is that I will indeed use only that portion of the chart unfolding in RTH hours. I will confirm that fact to you in this weekend's TT.
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=69 HI=05 LO=24 CL=05

Nothing for us as we gapped at the open. We did however climb all the way back to 7800 so we'll play that number again tomorrow. The comments above in the CD section apply exactly to the SF as well.
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=2.30 HI=6.90 LO=6.20 CL=4.00

As it turned out we only had 2 numbers in play the entire day ... 627 and 622. Made it pretty easy to focus. The trading window opened and we bought 622.40 and exited at 621.70 losing $70. Simultaneously I sold 621.70 which we exited at 619.00 for $270. The full array from TT for tomorrow. We next sold 621.40 and closed it out at 619.10 for $230. We bought 622.40 and exited at 621.90 giving back $50. I bought 622.60 and exited 622.30 attempting to keep it B/E ... another $30 loss. Sold 621.50 and out at 620.40 for $110. Next up we sold 621.40 and out at 619.50 for $210. I bought 622.40 and got stopped at 621.50 losing $90. We sold 621.50 and exited at 617.50 for $400.

That put us at $980 net for the day and I'd had enough anyway so I envoked the $1000 rule and quit. No doubt we left another couple of hundred on the table. That's OK.

All the numbers tomorrow
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=4.00 HI=5.20 LO=0.30 CL=3.80

We bought 471.50 on the confirming dive to 470.30. I exited by choice at 473.20 as we got within 10 minutes of the close. We picked up $170. $10 channel tomorrow if it shows the confirmation either way.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.90 HI=.80 LO=.80 CL=.18

Nothing today. I'll still sell abreak of 56.00 tomorrow.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=52 HI=73 LO=52 CL=69

We bought 1354. I exited at 1368 as we, predictably, ran out of gas at 1370 for $140. We'll stay with the TT numbers for tomorrow as well as play 1350.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.05 1/4 HI=2.05 1/4 LO=2.02 3/4 CL=2.03 1/2

It's tempting to buy any further retest of 2.02 1/2 or so. I think I'll continue to watch for a while though.

========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.45 HI=3.50 LO=3.44 1/2 CL=3.47 1/2

Nothing today. I'll stay with selling the retest at 3.50 or the break below 3.38. I'll buy the retest of 3.38 it it fails to go lower and turns back higher. Just looks "toppy" doesn't it?

Erich and Tom's Updates for Thursday, October 13, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, October 13, 2005
==================================================
Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!

Subscribers get these by email the night before, Test Drivers get theirs after the fact. To get these BEFORE the market opens, you'll have to join us at http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that but the really great make you feel that you too can be great." - Mark Twain
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
The AD rallied a bit today, which is a bit of a surprise given yesterday's gapto the downside. Nothing new here tomorrow.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
Looks like even if we did manage to sell the BP yesterday, today the marke would have taken it all back. Funny thing opening gaps. While they can upset you when they happen, many times it turns out to be a good thing. Nothing here tomorrow.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
We ended up buying the CD today on a break above the 8560 resistance. The fill was far from stellar and I sincerely hope for a better performance tomorrow.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
The EC also reacted a bit to yesterday's dip. I'm still watching and waiting.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
If you did sell the Yen yesterday you'll want to bring your exit stops to either breakeven or above today's high for tomorrow's session.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
A big dip in the Peso today. Rates are just above the 90.200 support level. If we break through here we'll be good to sell.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
I thought about selling the SF tomorrow below today's low, but we might actually be seeing a change in the market trend. We should know in another day or two.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
The USD backed off our resistance today, and I'll run the trade again tomorrow; however as with the SF, I think we could be seeing a change in the market direction building.

*BUY December US Dollar Index at 9011
*Stop 8977
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 9193
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1820 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
RSI has hooked slightly lower today but Gas prices rallied. I would expect the market to fall off tomorrow based on RSI, but I can't find a decent resistance level to base a trade on!
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
Heating Oil has more resistance in the 206 neighbourhood, but unlike Gas we're not getting a corresponding hook in RSI. Think I'll just watch tomorrow.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
Crude is up against major resistance at 6390 today. We're short of an RSI test however, but if we see a reaction I'll try to sell on Thursday.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
If you're short the ED then today's session allows you to bring stops to breakeven. If you're not short you've got another chance to sell below this week's low.

*SELL September (06) Eurodollar at 95.275
*Stop 95.335
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.065
*Approximate Profit Potential: $525 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
While it doesn't look like it on the daily chart, today's session actually whipsawed us - unfortunately. It looks like we had the right idea about this market, but just caught an unlucky break.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
The NAS made up for the Dow today though, as rates fell off sharply. Bring exit stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow, and as tight as just above today's close. It all depends on how much of our $400 in profit you want to protect. While the *ideal* stop is breakeven, you might also consider the resistance at 1535 as a good hiding spot.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
The S&P was a little more cooperative than the Dow and didn't whip us out of our sell order today. There is enough in the trade that you can bring it to breakeven if you like. Alternatively you could move stops above the 1185-86 resistance. Ideally you would leave stops where they are for one more session, but $350, plus today's accumulated profits, is a lot to risk.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Corn rallied today, but came up short of our buy order. I'll run the same trades again tomorrow.

*SELL December Corn at 201 1/4
*Stop 204 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 190 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $525 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*BUY December Corn at 208 1/4
*Stop 205 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 217 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Got a nice fill in Oats today as prices had a strong showing. Bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow, or if you're comfortable with the risk position, leave them where they are for one more day.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
I'm probably going to regret waiting, but I'll hold off buying rice one more day. There's good resistance at the 742 high, but I just don't trust the market right now.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
We caught a doozie of a move in Bean Meal today as we bought the market from the low and watched it rally the rest of the session! I just love day's like today, don't you?!?

Now comes the tough part, moving stops. We've got almost $600 in profit as of the close, so no one is going to blame you if you want to snuggle your stop nice and tight. Alternatively, if you're trying to let the trade run a bit, bring stops either to breakeven, or below the 172.5 resistance.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Darn! We had all the right signals for Bean Oil, but the market gapped our entry thereby voiding the trade. We'll keep watching for another chance to buy.
----------
November Soybean SX5
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October is turning out to be *Gap Month* as we're getting bumped from soooo many good trades by opening gaps. Today's bean trade is another example of pegging a perfect trade only to have the market gap the entry on the open.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat rallied today giving us a bit of breathing room on our buy yesterday. Bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow's session.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
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Feeders might finally be listening to all my belly-aching and put on the brakes today. Now, do you think we'll see a pullback?
----------
December Live Cattle LCZ5
----------
Cattle continues to hold the resistance line, so I'll look to buy a break above, but it's looking like prices might actually come down a bit first.

*BUY December Live Cattle at 9192
*Stop 9137
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 9437
*Approximate Profit Potential: $980 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
The bottom fell out of the hog market today as prices broke yesterday's low and officially moved into a bear market. Nothing new here tomorrow.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper had quite a lower session today which makes me think we're going to see a pullback over the next few days. 175 is the number to keep your eye on for support.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Gold backed up on us today stopping us out when prices broke 477's support. I knew we were in trouble after yesterday's crummy fill, but there wasn't much we could do about it.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Silver continues to stall today. Nothing new here tomorrow.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Whew! That was close! Cocoa continue lower today after making a run at our stops yesterday. If you haven't done so already you'll want your stops to breakeven for tomorrow.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Still looking for another chance to buy coffee...but not tomorrow.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton rallied a bit today, and I considered buying it above today's high tomorrow, but I think I'll hold off for a bit. I'll get more serious as we get back to 5600's resistance.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
Big bounce after yesterday's decline. Sticking with the original plan for tomorrow.

*BUY November OJ at 105.25
*Stop 104.05
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 109.45
*Approximate Profit Potential: $630 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
I need a serious pullback to get me interested in this market again. Just watching for tomorrow.
========================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, October 13, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=3-24 HI=3-26 LO=3-02 CL=3-07

The bonds traded -26 to -15 almost to the final hour never giving us an at bat. About 12:35 CDT we finally broke south and we sold one at 113-14. We went quickly to 113-02 at which point I moved my stop to -05 which was almost immediately hit. Out with 9 ticks, $281.

The close at 113-07 has us set to play at 113-00 or 113-16.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.405 HI=.420 LO=.390 CL=.405

Not there yet.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=56 HI=76 LO=41 CL=61

Nothing for us here as the CD rocketed upward. Look for the failure at 8600 to sell as per TT weekend.

There was a typo in yesterday's CD comments ... I meant to say DONE not DOWN ... I corrected it below and reposting the comments here so you get another crack at reading something that will now make better sense.

Let me share with you a bit about my current thoughts on the currencies applicable to both the CD and SF. The volume is being DONE electronically. About this there is no doubt. While I have ben resistant to move my trading into the electronic market there is too much potential for danger to avaoid doing so. I have a bit of the "old dog, new trick" syndrome that's been plaguing me for a while now. It is time to make some changes and move forward. Beginning with this weekend's TT I will switch my currency trading to electronic.

I will only initiate trades during the RTH session much as we do in the Russell. I will occassionally leave trades on thru the entire electronic session with a stop and/or limit order working. I have not yet decided whether I will formulate my trades only of of candles occurring during RTH hours or consider the entire electronic chart. I'm still doing some comparative analysis on this subject. My suspicion is that I will indeed use only that portion of the chart unfolding in RTH hours. I will confirm that fact to you in this weekend's TT.
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=08 HI=30 LO=04 CL=22

7804 was surely close enough to be considered a test, the next tick at 14 was not. We could only watch. I'll play the same 7800 tomorrow. The comments above in the CD section apply exactly to the SF as well.
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O1.70 HI=4.00 LO=8.30 CL=1.90

We suspected the stock market would have a difficult time holding anything in the 670's and thus far it looks as though that forecast is coming true. This puts us in a bad place because we have no structure to speak of below 642 and it disappears totally below 634/632. We'll be on the sidelines for a bit I fear. Atleast until we get some significant construction projects going on at levels below current pricing. This may have been our last day for a bit.

They didn't give us much to work with today. We sold the break of 632 at 631.60 which we exited at 626.20 for $540. There were some nice runs up and down that followed but we had no numbers in the ranges.

So, now we have a dilemma. Do we sit tight while structure builds or do we stretch the rules a bit and go steal some numbers from the weekly perpetual chart? Since we are still at relatively high levels from an historical perspective I favor pulling some numbers as opposed to a prolonged period of hand sitting. You should do as guided by YOUR sensibilities. I will add the following numbers to my mix beginning tomorrow:

637, 630, 627, 622, 601 and 581.

That will expand our base a tad and as most of them are pretty strong, I don't believe we're sacrificing a lot of number integrity. The full array from TT for tomorrow.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=1.50 HI=2.20 LO=4.30 CL=6.60

We sold 478.50 and exited at 476.50 for $200. Sold 478.50 a second time and exited this one at 475.50 for $300. 476 is no longer a trade. $10 channel tomorrow if it shows us a sell.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.50 HI=.07 LO=.27 CL=.90

Nothing at our numbers today as cotton exhibited some power. I'll take one shot at selling a retest of 56.00 with a 56.09 stop.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=50 HI=58 LO=47 CL=49

Nothing done. We'll stay with the TT numbers for tomorrow as well as play 1350 by buying a break back above with a stop at 1347.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.04 HI=2.07 1/2 LO=2.03 3/4 CL=2.05 3/4

Watching, hands firmly sat upon.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.45 HI=3.50 LO=3.44 1/2 CL=3.47 1/2

If we retest 3.50 and fail, I'll sell it. Penny and a quarter stop. I won't buy the break above ... yet.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Wednesday, October 12, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Wednesday, October 12, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you!
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
Darn it! The gaps in these smaller markets is starting to tick me off. We had the AD cornered today, but the opening gap voided our trade. We're on hold now until we see support.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
This one makes me sick. The BP likes to gap us at the best of times, but to miss a trade by 10 ticks when we had the market pegged really bugs me.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The CD is in chop-mode and I don't expect a fill here tomorrow. You can run the trade, but the risk level just went up.

*BUY December Canadian Dollar at 8563
*Stop 8537
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 8675
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1120 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
Same song for the EC today as the opening gap voided our trade. Too bad as this would have been a nice move too.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
This one is a little closer to the line. As big a market as the currencies are, you might have decided to sell the market after the open - as it was only 5 ticks from our entry ($62.50).

If you did sell then you're currently short and can bring stops to breakeven. If you didn't you'll have to hold on until the next support.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
Nothing new here at the moment.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
The Swissy also fell off today, which wasn't a surprise, but we've got possible support at 7750 which we'll need to clear before selling.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
The USD had a calmer session that most of the foreign currencies today. Look to buy tomorrow above last week's resistance.

*BUY December US Dollar Index at 9011
*Stop 8977
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 9193
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1820 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
Gas rebounded off 178 today. Notice that the market never broke the support area over the last couple of days, so it's still intact. Watching for another chance to sell.
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
Strong day in Heating Oil as the market seems to have held the trendline and is rallying higher. I'm not quite ready to buy it yet.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
Good bounce in crude today as well. Like the other energies I'm a little more bearish than bullish right now.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
If you're still short from last week's fill, then you'll want to bring your stops above yesterday's high, if you haven't done so already.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
I'm still expecting the Dow to rally a bit this week, but I'll leave the sell order in place for now.

*SELL December mini-DOW at 10237
*Stop 10277
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 10077
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
Got a bit of a surprise today as the NAS fell off earlier than expected. We're currently short this market, but with the late fill we don't have a lot of room to fidget with the stops.

If you can afford the risk you might leave them where they are for one more day, otherwise you could bring them above the 1550 line for tomorrow.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
The S&P didn't find our sell order today. We'll run it again tomorrow.

*SELL December e-mini S&P at 1184.5
*Stop 1191.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 1161.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Big report day in the grains tomorrow. Let's hope it lights a fire under them! I'm bracketing corn's recent support and resistance and will take a trade to the breakout side.

*SELL December Corn at 201 1/4
*Stop 204 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 190 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $525 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*BUY December Corn at 208 1/4
*Stop 205 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 217 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Oats are looking pretty bearish today as RSI broke the trendline, but since the market is still technically in an uptrend I will look to buy.

*BUY December Oats at 168 1/4
*Stop 1643/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 183 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
I'm still expecting rice to drop over the next couple of days. Support at 710 is the number to watch in my opinion.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Bean Meal broke the RSI trendline and is also looking much more bullish today. I'll bracke the trade however, as technically we're still in a downtrend.

*SELL December Soybean Meal at 164.7
*Stop 167.3
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 153.3
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1140 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*BUY December Soybean Meal at 170.1
*Stop 166.7
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 183.7
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1360 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil made a textbook bounce off RSI today, so I'll look to buy the market long tomorrow. Yes, you could bracket this range as well, but I'm sticking to the long side for now.

*BUY December Soybean Oil at 2393
*Stop 2347
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $276 per contract
*Profit Target: 2547
*Approximate Profit Potential: $924 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
We got stopped out of our bean short today...but that wasn't a real surprise given the crummy fill we got. I normally don't trade a market the day after a loss, but I'll make an exception since tomorrow is report day.

*SELL November Soybeans at 553 3/4
*Stop 561 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 522 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1575 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH

OR

*BUY November Soybeans at 571 1/4
*Stop 564 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract
*Profit Target: 597 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1325 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Oops! Another crappy fill as prices just barely broke resistance today. I hate getting filled like that! I guess I shouldn't have pushed my luck today and waited until tomorrow to trade. It might not be all bad however, at leat we don't need to worry about a bullish opening gap tomorrow. ;-)

You should leave stops where they are for now. Keep your fingers crossed for tomorrow!
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
----------
Yep, there they go higher again. What's with this market? Who's holding it up? Will you retrace already so I can buy you?
----------
December Live Cattle LCZ5
----------
Today's stronger day in Feeders will hopefully spill over into Live Cattle tomorrow. I'm still running the buy order from yesterday, but I don't consider it to be as risky now.

*BUY December Live Cattle at 9192
*Stop 9137
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 9437
*Approximate Profit Potential: $980 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Well whaddaya know...we finally got a pullback in hogs! I'm going to tighten our entry a bit to buy above the strong resistance at 6450, which had been the support for the last week or so. A break above here, plus a bit of a cushion, will get me long again.

NOTE: It's still safer to stick with yesterday's trade and buy above the contract highs.

*BUY December Lean Hogs at 6475
*Stop 6395
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $320 per contract
*Profit Target: 6992
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2070 per contract
*RRR: 6:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Another strong day in copper. The market certainly has regained some strength in the trend. I'll get a lot more serious about buying on the next resistance.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
We bought gold today on a break of the 480 resistance. Prices still closed below the resistance, so technically it's intact. We can't do too much with the stops right now, but rest assured that a break below 477 is a definite sign we're on the wrong side of the market.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Silver finally stalled today. Nothing new here tomorrow.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Cocoa gave us an identical range to yesterday as prices made a run at our stops. We're still short this market, but I don't like today's session at all. You might want to bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Nothing new in coffee - yet.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
There's a cotton report due out tomorrow as well, which explains the rather confined market - at least for cotton. I still like the market long, but we could be in for a bit of a pullback.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
Big retreat off resistance today. I'll run the buy again tomorrow, but I don't expect a fill. We'll tighten the trade a bit when we get closer to a testpoint in RSI.

*BUY November OJ at 105.25
*Stop 104.05
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 109.45
*Approximate Profit Potential: $630 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Yep, there goes sugar again. The market's trading near the contract highs, and is probably due for a hiccup again, so I'll avoid buying it tomorrow...maybe the day after.
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, October 12, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=4-09 HI=4-11 LO=3-24 CL=4-00

The Bonds had a nice 19 tick range today. The problem was it started in territory just shy of -16 and never gave us a decent shot at an entry. I did sell -29 late in the day but not with a lot of passion. It came at the end of a reasonanly big run and was suspect from the beginning. I exited at -26 for a whopping 3 ticks.

The close at 114-00 has us watching for a bit of movement before jumping in tomorrow. The play could be off of 114-00 or 114-16 or 113-16. Be aware.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.445 HI=.460 LO=.410 CL=.435

The bad news is we didn't even sniff at our numbers from TT; the good news is we are building some at current price levels and should have something cooking in the pot before long.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=79 HI=32 LO=79 CL=10

CD opened right on our number and then climbed away from us. I'll stay with the TT numbers again tomorrow.

Let me share with you a bit about my current thoughts on the currencies applicable to both the CD and SF. The volume is being down electronically. About this there is no doubt. While I have ben resistant to move my trading into the electronic market there is too much potential for danger to avaoid doing so. I have a bit of the "old dog, new trick" syndrome that's been plaguing me for a while now. It is time to make some changes and move forward. Beginning with this weekend's TT I will switch my currency trading to electronic.

I will only initiate trades during the RTH session much as we do in the Russell. I will occassionally leave trades on thru the entire electronic session with a stop and/or limit order working. I have not yet decided whether I will formulate my trades only of of candles occurring during RTH hours or consider the entire electronic chart. I'm still doing some comparative analysis on this subject. My suspicion is that I will indeed use only that portion of the chart unfolding in RTH hours. I will confirm that fact to you in this weekend's TT.
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=16 HI=67 LO=87 CL=95

Nothing near our numbers today. I will shift focus for tomorrow to 7800. I will sell a break below after a retest or I will buy a break above. The stops are 7793 on the buy and 7803 on the sell. The target for the buy is 7940 and for the sell 7720.

The comments above in the CD section apply exactly to the SF as well.
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=0.50 HI=5.30 LO=1.30 CL=1.50

We suspected the stock market would have a difficult time holding anything in the 670's and thus far it looks as though that forecast is coming true. This puts us in a bad place because we have no structure to speak of below 642 and it disappears totally below 634/632. We'll be on the sidelines for a bit I fear. Atleast until we get some significant construction projects going on at levels below current pricing. This may have been our last day for a bit.

We opened the window buying 642.60 which we exited at 643.90 for $130. I then sold 644.40 and exited at 642.20 for $220. I then sold 641.60 and exited at 642.00 losing $40. Next up I bought 642.60 and exited at 643.50 for $90. I then sold 641.60 and exited at 640.20 for $140. That ended the day $540, unfortunately, as there was almost another $900 available during the balance of the day but I had no numbers to play. It was really very hard to sit and watch the geese parading by and me without a shell to my name.

The full array from TT for tomorrow.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=7.80 HI=1.50 LO=7.40 CL=9.80

Nothing for us today. $10 channel tomorrow if it shows us a sell.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.60 HI=.85 LO=.10 CL=.17

If we get a shot at selling a break of 54.50 we'll take it. Stop is 54.57
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=70 HI=72 LO=51 CL=56

That's about as close to carbon copy days as you're likely to see in Cocoa. I found the action today very surprising since Gina Davis sent F-15's to bomb the coca fields. Oh wait ... that's a different plant, huh?

I sold 1368 and exited at 1353 for $150. We'll stay with the TT numbers for tomorrow.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.03 1/2 HI=2.04 1/4 LO=2.02 1/4 CL=2.02 1/2

Watching, hands firmly sat upon.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.40 HI=3.41 1/4 LO=3.38 1/4 CL=3.39 3/4

No luck on our hunt for 3.38. I'll ride the same horse tomorrow.

Erich's and Tom's Updates for Tuesday, October 11, 2005

==================================================
Market Updates for Tuesday, October 11, 2005
==================================================
Scroll down about halfway for Tom's Trades!

"Keep away from people who try to belittle your ambitions. Small people always do that but the really great make you feel that you too can be great." - Mark Twain
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
Didn't trade today. Run the weekend trade for tomorrow.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
Didn't trade. Run the weekend trade tomorrow.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
Didn't trade today. I didn't suggest this trade over the weekend, but you might want to consider a buy above the 8550 resistance if last week's bounce continues this week.

*BUY December Canadian Dollar at 8563
*Stop 8537
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $260 per contract
*Profit Target: 8675
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1120 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
I'm not sure what's up with the Gecko charts as the EC didn't trade today, but the charts appear as though they did. Run the weekend trade tomorrow.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
Didn't trade today. Run the weekend trade tomorrow.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
Didn't trade today. Nothing for tomorrow.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
Didn't trade. Nothing for tomorrow.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
A bit of a rally in the USD today, but nothing serious. I'm holding off until we get closer to the resistance on the contract highs.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
Gas whipsawed us today for a $500 loss. Ouch! Not the way I wanted to start the week. I still think we had the right idea here, but I'm holding off tomorrow.
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
Incredible range in Heating Oil today. I still like it short, but we might be a couple of days before we get a good sell.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
Same song for Crude. I want to sell it, but the ranges are killers!
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
Didn't trade today. If you took the trade last week you'll want to bring your stops above Friday's high.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
We might be a little early selling the DOW tomorrow, but I'll short it on a break of last week's support.

*SELL December mini-DOW at 10237
*Stop 10277
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 10077
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
Naturally the NAS is giving us a similar setup and I'll handle it the same way, selling a break of last week's low.

*SELL December mini-NAS at 1547.5
*Stop 91561
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $270 per contract
*Profit Target: 1506.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $820 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
Same for the S&P:

*SELL December e-mini S&P at 1184.5
*Stop 1191.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 1161.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1150 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Small day for corn, but not a big surprise. I'm just watching tomorrow in anticipation of the WASDE on Wednesday.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Oats are getting closer to the 158 - 160 range from where I could get a little more bullish.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
A disappointing day in rice as the market backed up to stop us out at breakeven. I would expect prices to continue lower for the next day or two before we get another buy.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Bean Meal is still making pretty tight ranges, and if it continues to do so for one more day we'll have a good trade going into Wednesday's report.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil found RSI support today as prices fell off to 2325. If it wasn't for the pending report I might look to buy tomorrow, but I think I'll just wait.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
We got filled in our Bean short today as prices just barely found our sell order. I hate to get filled this way, but that's what we got. Leave exit stops where they are and keep your fingers crossed for tomorrow.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat made a tight range today, which is to be expected with the WASDE due on Wednesday. I'll run the buy order again, but only because I don't think the market will rally enough to fill it.

*BUY December Wheat at 349 1/4
*Stop 344 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 364 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
----------
I still can't used to Feeders strength. I wish this market would reset itself a bit so we could get a better buy signal.
----------
December Live Cattle LCZ5
----------
Cattle has built a nice resistance line from last week, and while I'm reluctant to get on board I will buy a break above the resistance. As with Feeders, I would be a little more comfortable buying after the market had a chance to regroup. We're up against important long term resistance, so a bounce would not be out of the question.

*BUY December Live Cattle at 9192
*Stop 9137
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 9437
*Approximate Profit Potential: $980 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Hogs didn't come down like I expected; however RSI is at a testpoint so I'll look to buy a break of last week's resistance on the highs.

*BUY December Lean Hogs at 6607
*Stop 6522
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 6992
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1540 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper is looking quite bearish after today's low close. I would like to see this market come down a bit as well so that we can get a better buying price.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Gold made a stab at our buy order this morning but came up a few ticks short. We can run the buy again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get a fill.

*BUY December Gold at 480.5
*Stop 477.0
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 494.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1400 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Another big day in silver. If gold's weakness continues tomorrow, expect silver to follow suit.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Cocoa continue low enough today that we can bring our stops in above today's high. First profit target is support at 1301.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
While I didn't run the coffee trade, it's interesting to note today's range: right between our entry and exit on last week's buy order! Don't you just love this support and resistance stuff!
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Arrrgghhh! Cotton gapped us by a few ticks on the open voiding our trade. I'm upset because after several days, we finally had the market cornered only to miss it by 7 cents!
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ continues to be choppy. I'll run the buy again tomorrow, but I don't expect to get filled.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Sugar rallied again. I certainly don't have my *touch* in this market lately...but in all fairness it hasn't been cooperating either.
========================================================
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, October 11, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=3-25 HI=4-09 LO=3-09 CL=4-08

Bonds were closed today for Columbus Day. The above numbers are for Friday. The close Friday at 114-08 has us locked onto the same 114-16 and 114-00 as the opening plays tomorrow.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.450 HI=.470 LO=.385 CL=.460

ED was closed due to Columbus Day observance. Above numbers are from Friday. Use the TT numbers for guidance tomorrow.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=93 HI=45 LO=80 CL=31

CD closed for Columbus Day. Use the weekend TT numbers for guidance tomorrow.
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=97 HI=97 LO=49 CL=67

Closed for Columbus Day. The above numbers are from Friday. Use weekend TT numbers for guidance for tomorrow.
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=7.20 HI=0.60 LO=9.10 CL=0.30

We began a very light trading day by selling 646.70 and exiting at 642.10 for $460. We bought 642.50 and exited at 643.00 for $50. We then sold 643.60 and exited at 642.30 for $130. We then bought 642.60 and exited at 645.30 for $270. Next up we sold 644.60 and closed it out at 642.30 for for $230. That trade put us at $1140 for the day. Quittin' time.

The full array from TT for tomorrow.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=9.50 HI=9.50 LO=5.20 CL=8.00

We sold 478.20 on a $10 channel play. I exited at 476.30 picking up $190. I did sell the break of 476 and was stopped out at B/E. $10 channel tomorrow if it shows us a sell.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.70 HI=.55 LO=.50 CL=.66

Concerns about the earthquake in Pakistan impact on cotton processing capacity lifted the market in a big way. We bought 54.60 and exited very soon thereafter at 56.20 picking off $800 in less than a half hour. I'm going to leave this alone for a day or two and let the dust settle.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=70 HI=73 LO=51 CL=56

We sold 1368 and exited at 1356 for $120. I'll stay with the TT numbers again tomorrow.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.02 3/4 HI=2.02 3/4 LO=2.01 3/4 CL=2.02

Still watching but not much hope on the waiting part. Square pegs into round holes is not my idea of fun and games. Anything done in here right now is really trying to force the issue.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.40 HI=3.41 1/4 LO=3.38 1/4 CL=3.39 3/4

Ok, gang, let's take a shot at playing 3.38 ... let's buy a retest of the 3.38 support that holds and heads north or we'll sell a break below. Stops are back a penny and a quarter.

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part One and Two

The Big Weekend Edition has been posted att he website...enjoy! http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.html

Erich's and Tom's Update for Friday, October 7, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Friday, October 7, 2005
==================================================
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
The joys of trying to trade a trendless market - lower one day,
higher the next. Think I'll stand aside for tomorrow.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
A much bigger reaction in the Pound than I was expecting, but it
brings us to resistance at 177.90, as well as an RSI test. If we
see a reaction here tomorrow it will be ripe for selling next week.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
We were wise to wait as the CD stalled today. That's not usual
after a big drop like what we saw this week. We'll keep watching
tomorrow.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
Huge rebound in the EC today as it followed the Pound higher. Same
analysis as the Pound, with resitance at 122.50 and an RSI test. If
we get the bounce tomorrow we're good to sell it further
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
We finally got stopped out of our Yen trade today as rates backed
up enough to find our stops. We had a nice little run here, but now
that we've got an RSI test, the bears have to step up, or the trend
could be in jeopardy.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
While other currencies ran higher, the Peso retreated off the
contract highs. This market's a bit range bound at the moment, so
I'm not committing to anything tomorrow.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
It's not surprise that the SF rallied today along with the other
currencies, but what is a surprise is the gap and the big move.
Like the others, we're at an RSI testpoint, so tomorrow is a big
day in this market's future.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
As I'm sure you guessed, the USD gave us the same picture as the
other currencies, but in reverse. Here the market is also at a test
point, so tomorrow is going to set the tone for the next week or so.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
Gas shattered the 182 support line today as the bears pushed the
market right to trendline support. If it wasn't Friday I might look
at a sell below here, but I've got a sneaking feeling we're getting
a bounce tomorrow.
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
I'm still reeling from the whipsaw here the other day as prices
easily found our profit target today. Maybe next time I'll look
closer at an option play to help ride out the ranges.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
Crude also fell through our first target today, but unfortunately
we were stopped out with $700 during yesterday's range. No question
about it, the energies are tough to ride out...but we'll get them
again.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
The ED continued higher today, but that's okay as each tick higher
gives us a better selling price. I'm going to take an agressive
posture before the weekend and tighten the trade to sell a break of
today's low.

*SELL September Eurodollar at 95.365
*Stop 95.425
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.065
*Approximate Profit Potential: $750 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
The DOW easily found our profit target today, so if you exited on
target you're up a little over $700 per contract. If you're holding
on you'll have to leave stops at breakeven for tomorrow.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
The NAS allowed you to take profits at our first target today,
banking about $620 per contract. If you're letting the trade run,
or still have open positions, put the stops above the high on the
remaining contracts.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
If you didn't exit yesterday, the S&P gave you another chance
today. If you're still short, leave stops above 1210 for tomorrow.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Corn's not doing a whole-heck-of-a-lot this week...well, not yet
anyway. I'm pulling the order for tomorrow and will pick this one
up again next week.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Oats continue to look strong on the surface, but RSI is at another
testpoint. This time I think we'll see prices fall off, but I'm not
selling going into the weekend.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Rice finally moved off the support level enough that we can bring
our stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First profit target is
resistance at 751.5.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Bean Meal gave us a chance to take some profit at 165.6, and if you
were watching during the day you might have gotten something near
there. For the rest of us, we're still short with stops just above
teh market at 169.3.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil is still hunting for support. I'd like to see it fall off
to 2330, that's where I'd get really serious about buying again.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Soybeans haven't found our sell order yet, but I will run the trade
again tomorrow. I'm not a fan of doing this before the weekend, but
the support zone has proven itself to be strong so far.

*SELL November Soybeans at 554 3/4
*Stop 561 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract
*Profit Target: 522 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1625 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
You could tighten the wheat buy to go just above yesterday's high,
as we have a bit of resistance here now, but I'll leave the order
as is for tomorrow.

*BUY December Wheat at 349 1/4
*Stop 344 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 364 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
----------
Feeders are still hanging around resistance today. I might regret
not buying tomorrow, but it's the weekend, and I just don't feel
safe about doing so.
----------
December Live Cattle LCZ5
----------
Looks like Cattle might go hunting for support tomorrow. If they do
I'll keep looking to buy on the first reaction...but not tomorrow.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
That's better. Hogs fell off slightly today, and I expect them to
do the same tomorrow. If they do, we might be in a buying position
for next week.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Isn't it just like copper to call your bluff before the weekend? It
looks like it might be a good chance to buy off the low...but it's
just a little too iffy for me right now.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
I'm not looking to take a Gold position tomorrow, so I'll run the
*extreme* buy order from last week, just in case we see a super
rally.

*BUY December Gold at 480.5
*Stop 477.0
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $350 per contract
*Profit Target: 494.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1400 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
We had no trouble filling our Silver buy today as the market took
off with a rather strong session. Prices are shy of our first
profit target at 768.5, but since tomorrow is Friday, you might
want to lessen your object by a couple of ticks, in case silver
comes up short.

The market is still looking strong however, and you'll want to
bring stops a tick or two below the close to protect those hard
earned profits!
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Smallish day for cocoa as prices continue to fill last week's gap.
Weak volume makes this look very much like a pullback move, and
higher price might be the result, but I'm sticking with the trend
at the moment.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1367
*Stop 1387
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1301
*Approximate Profit Potential: $660 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
We're putting the squeeze on coffee as the market reinforced
resistance at 9550 today. Now we can either buy or sell the support
or resistance, but it's still a high risk trade because it's coffee.

*SELL December Coffee at 9135
*Stop 9230
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $356 per contract
*Profit Target: 8715
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1575 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*BUY December Coffee at 9560
*Stop 9445
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $431 per contract
*Profit Target: 9945
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1443 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Things were going so good, until we got to cotton that is. Today
this market made incredible efforts to rally above resistance only
to whipsaw us out of our trade about an hour later.

If you look at an intraday chart it looks a lot like a
rollercoaster! We're back at a testpoint, so I pretty sure we'll
see lower prices tomorrow...but I'm just watching.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
If hoping OJ will behave itself one more day so that we can look to
get back into this market next week. Right now it still looks a
little to choppy for me.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
It looks like sugar might have an adjustment coming after all.
Since the market is technically bullish, I won't sell, but I think
we'll see a dip to the 1090 support area.
.========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Friday, October 7, 2005
========================================================
Tonight Waylon Jennings gets the duty with a glass of Zin Alley Port. Yummy. Be sure to
read tonight's update completely. There are some changes and modifications of note.

Stay tuned there are more to come as the old dog is wading thru the manual of some
new tricks.
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=114-09 HI=114-16 LO=113-29 CL=114-04

The day opened with a run north from -08 right to -16 and a failure. We sold 114-13. We
went straight to -03 and bounced back stopping me at -05 for 8 ticks, $250. From there I
sold -07 as the bounce from -03 ran out of gas at -08. We exited this one at -31 for another
8, $250. I bought one at 114-03 and was stopped at B/E. Ended the day for me.

The close at 114-04 has us locked onto the same 114-16 and 114-00 as the opening plays
tomorrow.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=95.480 HI=95.500 LO=95.465 CL=95.470

Not yet. Watching.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=8468 HI=8497 LO=8444 CL=8480

We shot lower, I tried to sell 8465, no dice. Tomorrow I'll trade 8500 but only selling a
failed retest with a stop at 8507. The target is 8352 area. Protect strongly ay 5475, 50,
25 and 8400. Yeah, 8375 as well.
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=7842 HI=7942 LO=7841 CL=7930

I big updraft today as the US Dollar was hammerd. Gapped well beyond our 7800 number.

** NOTE: The currencies have been significant under performers for some time now. I'm
in the midst of a major rethink on the currencies. Stay tuned as we try to make some
adjustments in how we attack these markets.
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=647.50 HI=651.80 LO=634.90 CL=642.20

I openbed the day with a buy at 647.50 which I exited at 649.70 for $220.
The full array from TT for tomorrow. I sold 646.60 and exited at 645.60 on the "once
broken" application at 645. Eeked out $100. Next I bought 647.40 and got out at 646.70
dropping $70. I took a break and came back just before 10 when a 646 alarm brought
me back. I bought 647.40 and bailed at 650.60 for $320.

I cheated, I couldn't resist the failure up near 652. I sold 650.00, not one of our numbers,
I made a trade from the intraday. In a way I wish I'd have been whacked so I could make
a big deal of reaffirming what I have been preaching about just executing while the market
is trading. Bad cop, no donut. I thought about just keeping my mouth shut and not telling
you I did it ... but that ain't the style around these parts. We'll talk more about this later.

I got out at 649.00 for $100. It wasn't worth it. I took a risk off a non number ... it was
dumb. I took another break and returned to find us at 648 and change. I sold 646.70 and
got stopped at 648.10 dropping $140. Sold 646.70 and caught a nice flyer. Out at 642.10
on a "once broken" play with $460. I closed shop for the day. It made a further run to the
downside which we couldn't have traded anyway because our numbers were not involved.
The Russell then made a big recovery move jamming back up to 644. Again none of our
numbers were involved so we wouldn't have aprticipated in any case.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=469.30 HI=475.90 LO=469.00 CL=475.00

Were we not in a no buy zone I would have bought 471.50 or so today. Might have made
some. The confirm was there. Just watched it.

$10 channel tomorrow if it shows us a sell.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=53.75 HI=54.70 LO=53.35 CL=53.75

I bought 54.05 and exited at 54.50 after the failure at 54.70. Then we sold 54.40 and
bailed at 54.00 on the failure at 53.80. We picked up 95 points for $475.

We'll play 'em all tomorrow 54.50, 54.00 and 53.50.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=1380 HI=1408 LO=1378 CL=1392

Just watched 1413 and 1380 will be in play tomorrow.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.05 HI=2.05 1/2 LO=2.03 3/4 CL=2.04 1/4

Watching and waiting.

========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.43 HI=3.46 1/2 LO=3.40 1/2 CL=3.45 1/4

We came within a half cent of the target ... just 1 prob ... no entry.

Sell a failed retest of 3.48 tomorrow. Buy a failed test of 3.40 and sell a break of 3.40.
Penny and a quarter stop. One is the gaol of the other. The sell of the breaking of 3.40
has 3. 34 as a target.

Erich and Tom's Updates for Thursday, October 6, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, October 6, 2005
==================================================
Hot off the commodity presses to you!
Erich http://www.supportandresistance.com
"If you're going to be thinking anyway you might as well think big." - Donald Trump
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
The Aussie retreated from resistance today, and in a big way. Probably see rates continue lower tomorrow but I'm standing aside for now.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
The Pound is still hovering around support at 175.50. I'll run the sell order from the weekend tomorrow, although you could sell today's low if you wanted to be more aggressive.

*SELL December British Pound at 174.97
*Stop 175.37
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 173.27
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1062 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The CD snapped as RSI broke the trendline today. What do you think, should we wait for support or sell today's low? I think I'll err on the side of caution and wait.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
The EC continues to hang around support, although today's session looked much more bullish. Still waiting to sell it short though and I'll run the same trade again tomorrow.

*SELL December EuroFX at 119.07
*Stop 119.57
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $625 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.27
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2250 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
A bit of a hiccup in the Yen today, but we're still short with stops at 8879. You'll want to leave them there for tomorrow as well.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
The Peso bounced like it was *supposed* to. I should be buying it long tomorrow, but I'm going to press my luck and wait.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
The Swiss Franc was a little more aggressive on the pullback than the EC, but here too I'll continue to look short. I doubt we'll get filled, but I'll run the trade all the same.

*SELL December Swiss Franc at 7713
*Stop 7753
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 7557
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1950 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
I'll leave the USD numbers the way they are for now, but if the market continues to build resistance on the high I'll look to tighten them a bit.

*BUY December US Dollar Index at 9043
*Stop 8997
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $460 per contract
*Profit Target: 9225
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1820 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
----------
Gas is officially a bear market again as prices made a big reversal today. Last barrier is support at 182 before we get serious about selling.
----------
December Heating Oil HOZ5
----------
Got stopped out of our Heating Oil trade today. Too bad because we had the right idea, but weren't able to ride out the ranges. Might have been a good place to do an option trade instead.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
We had the right idea about crude as well, but in this case the market stopped us out with $700 in profit. The downside is that there is likely greater downside. I'm looking for a bounce off 6200 and another chance to sell.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
----------
Bit of a bounce in the ED makes our entry look even better today. I'm running the same trade tomorrow, but we might be a little early still. If support continues to hold I'll tighten the trade.

*SELL September Eurodollar at 95.295
*Stop 95.345
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.065
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
Two solid bear days in the Dow almost assure us of a bounce off the 10340 support. The market gave us a very nice fill today, and we can safely bring stops at least to breakeven for tomorrow. Tighten stops even more if you don't mind getting stopped out, as we're halfway to our profit target.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
The NAS also filled our short as the market fell off sharply today. Look for a possible bounce tomorrow, so get those stops to breakeven, or tighter. First profit target is support at 1566.5.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
King S&P stood up the other markets by failing off sharply enough to find our first profit order at 1200 before today's close. Chaulk up $675 in profit if you exited here. If you're still short you might want to use the 1210 resistance to hide your stops.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Corn's still choppy. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get a fill. If we get a little closer we'll look at selling, but with the holiday around the corner I'm not expecting too much.

*BUY December Corn at 210 3/4
*Stop 206 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 229 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $950 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Yep, the bulls definitely have the Oat market under control. Ticks me off that we got whipsawed the other day as we sure called this move.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
I was hoping for a better day from rice today, and the small session doesn't instill a lot of confidence for tomorrow. You could bring stops to breakeven to assure you get out without a loss, or leave them where they are if you want to try your luck.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Bean Meal came up a couple of ticks shy of our first profit target today. And while I think Meal still has lower to go, I might consider taking profit at the 165 area if we see it again tomorrow. If you want to let it run, leave exit stops at 169.3.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil's still looking for support. Prices did trade higher today, but from the closing price I don't think we're out of the woods yet.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Still looking to sell Beans below the recent support. Nothing fancy, I just want to be there if prices fall off.

*SELL November Soybeans at 554 3/4
*Stop 561 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract
*Profit Target: 522 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1625 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat might have found support today, but we won't know until tomorrow. I'm tightening my buy order for the eventual reversal.

*BUY December Wheat at 349 1/4
*Stop 344 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $225 per contract
*Profit Target: 364 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $775 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
November Feeder Cattle FCX5
----------
Feeders finally took a breather after the big rally last week. I wouldn't mind seeing prices hover around here for a few days before we look to buy again.
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Cattle backed up on us today and stopped us out with $340 in profit per contract. Not what I was hoping for, but not a big surprise seeing how late we got into the trade. While we might see the trend continue higher tomorrow, I'm holding off until after the holiday. Switching to December next week.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Still watching Hogs. Still nothing I want to trade right now.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Okay, Copper's officially trending again. Expect a lower session tomorrow, and if we get it we might try as limit buy off the low.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Gold is near support today and the higher closing price would suggest a rally tomorrow. I'm holding off until we either see a confirmation of support, or the market trading near the contract highs.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
While Gold and Silver follow each other around the charts, I'll look to buy silver on a break of this week's support, just above today's high. In order to make the trade feasible I'll cover just below the close, so this is a HIGH risk trade.

*BUY December Silver at 752.5
*Stop 747.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 768.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $800 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Not the day I was expecting in cocoa today as prices traded higher, but closed low. We might still be filling the gap, but we're technically bearish so I'll look to sell a break of 1370's support.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1367
*Stop 1387
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1301
*Approximate Profit Potential: $660 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee continued to chop around today as well. The trend is not nearly as strong as it once was, but I'll run the trade for one more day in case we get a *crazy* day before the holiday.

*SELL December Coffee at 9135
*Stop 9230
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $356 per contract
*Profit Target: 8715
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1575 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
RSI bounced today which gave us a more bullish day overall. I'll dust off the weekend trade for tomorrow, although you could buy it above today's high if you wanted.

*BUY December Cotton at 5463
*Stop 5413
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 5667
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1020 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ recovered a bit after yesterday's wild range. I'm just watching tomorrow, but I am on the lookout for another chance to buy.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Sugar's trend is still extremely strong, and I'd love to buy the stuff, but we're just not getting a decent chance!
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, October 6, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=4-05 HI=4-16 LO=4-01 CL=4-06

We began the day buing 114-03 and were rewarded, predictably, with a move higher. Bonds went to -14 and sanpped back to -11 stopping us out with 8 ticks, $250. We sold -13 stopped at B/E. We sold -13 again a bit later and this one was stopped at -09 for 4 ticks, $125.

The close at 114-06 has us locked onto 114-16 and 114-00 as the opening plays tomorrow.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.450 HI=.485 LO=.440 CL=.450

We opened right where I'd intended to roll my stop so I just bailed, out at 95.450 banking profit of $662. For an encore, I'm going to just watch a few days. I'll let you know when and why I'm ready to do something when the time comes.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=28 HI=30 LO=67 CL=73

I entered 2 trades breaking 8500 only to be stopped out at B/E on both. The third break I sold at 8596. It broke fairly hard for about 30 points. When the run ended so did my trade. On the pullback from 67 I exited at 71 picking up $250 for the effort.

I'll sell a break below 8465 tomorrow with a stop at 71. The stop will be rolled very tight at 8452 for obvious reasons. If we can get thru that level I think 8350 is possible. Watch 8425, 8400, 8475 on our travels to the target.
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=55 HI=92 LO=45 CL=68

I don't expect much for a while in the SF. I'll certainly buy a bounce above 7800. Other than that obvious trade I don't see anything I'd play with real money on at this time.
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=4.80 HI=5.20 LO=7.00 CL=7.30

You gotta' love today. The window swung open with the Russell trading right around 665.00. It tried about 4 or 5 times to break above and couldn't do it. That wasn't a whisper, that was a SCREAM ... sell me. I did at 664.40. I exited at 662.40 for $200. I then sold 661.60. Boy, did we launch from there, the bottom came right out of it. We went clear to 654.70 before the brake lights came on. I wished it had gone just a bit lower so I could have used 654.00 for guidance. It snapped back hard from there. I made it out at 655.50 for $610. Yee haw! I bouhgt one at 656.50 and bailed at 655.60 dropping $90. I bought 656.60 and exited at 658.10 for $150. Next in line was a sell at 657.60. I exited this trade at 653.30, for $$430. I then sold 653.30 on the failure at 654 and exited at 651.50 for another $180. I took a break at this point to recharge the batteries a bit. I came back to see us at 656. I was a little slow on the draw and missed buying the break above 656. I then sold 657.60. I exited at 655.20 for $240. Next we sold 655.50. 649.20 was the exit. We tacked on another $630 to the day's take. I was done with a capiatl "D".

This is hard work! The amount of continuous focus required does take a toll. I cannot stress too much the importance of taking breaks. It is so easy to get lost in the flow of a market like the Russell or the Dow or the Emini. I have overtraded the prior 2 days. Part of that is due to writing the Daily Updates ... I feel obligated to do every trade at every number we're watching. I'm going to lighten up a bit and assume a more comfortable pace.

The full array from TT for tomorrow.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=8.40 HI=9.60 LO=5.90 CL=9.30

A bit of a wild ride and a close for no change. Wicked. I sold 468.50 for a B/E trade. Sold again at 468.40 and exited at 466.90 for $150. $10 channel tomorrow if it shows.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.05 HI=.95 LO=.80 CL=.91

I bought 53.10. After the failure at 53.50 I baoiled at 53.30 for $100. Of course it climbed to the 90's thereafter. We'll play 54.00 tomorrow ... either way.
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=10 HI=17 LO=85 CL=88

I sold 1408 as we reverted back to our previous and TT number. Dumped it at 1390 for $180.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.05 1/2 HI=2.06 1/4 LO=2.04 1/2 CL=2.04 3/4

Nothing ... THAT'S exactly why we sat out this inning.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.46 HI=3.46 3/4 LO=3.42 3/4 CL=3.45

Sell a failed retest of 3.48 tomorrow. Penny and a quarter stop. See if we can't make it to 3.40.