Thursday, October 06, 2005

Erich's Update for Wednesday, October 5, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, October 5, 2005
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"If you're going to be thinking anyway you might as well think big." - Donald Trump
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The Aussie made a stab at our buy order today but came up short. I'll run the trade again tomorrow.

*BUY December Australian Dollar at 7627
*Stop 7597
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 7725
*Approximate Profit Potential: $990 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound gave us a little hiccup today, but that's okay as I'd like to see prices *normalize* a bit over the next few days. I'll pull the sell order tomorrow and if the market continues to pullback, will trail a sell order.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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Good thing we got out with our profit yesterday as the CD fell off sharply today. We're at a test point with RSI, so we should see a reaction tomorrow. I'll wait for either a break our bounce before committing to the trade.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The EC held support today which is encouraging for our sell order. We will probably see the market hover here a little while longer, but I'll have the sell order in place.

*SELL December EuroFX at 119.07
*Stop 119.57
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $625 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.27
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2250 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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The Yen slowed it's decline today as rates formed support on yesterday's low. You could leave the stops where they are, or bring them to 8879 for tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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There's a desperate stab at higher rates if I ever saw one! I don't know if the market will reverse tomorrow, but today's classic *fade* casts considerable doubt on higher rates. Besides, we're at the contract highs...it's supposed to bounce.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swissy also stalled out today as RSI adjusted itself a bit. I'll run the same trade again tomorrow, but I don't think we'll get a fill.

*SELL December Swiss Franc at 7713
*Stop 7753
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 7557
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1950 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD also had a weak day today as the market struggles with resistance. Again I'm sticking to Plan 'A' for now.

*BUY December US Dollar Index at 9043
*Stop 8997
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $460 per contract
*Profit Target: 9225
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1820 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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December Unleaded Gas HUZ5
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Yeech! What an ugly day in Gas today. Sure looks like Gas doesn't want to head any lower though, doesn't it? Dare we buy? I might hold out for an RSI test before jumping in. Yeah, I know I'm a chicken. :-)
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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We got the quickie reversal we were looking for, but what I didn't want to see was the snap back to where we sold the market. Things are still looking bearish (except for today's close) and this is Heating Oil, so anything can happen, but I have to admit things aren't looking too promising right now.
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December Crude Oil CLZ5
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Our Crude trade faired much better as the market fell through support and stayed down. You will want to bring your stops AT LEAST to breakeven for tomorrow. Don't be shy about protecting those hard earned profits however. Use the resistance at 6390 to cover above.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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At long last the ED finally showed us some support. The ED is likely to bounce around here a bit, so I'm going to place my entry far enough away to (hopefully) avoid a whipsaw.

I just don't want to be left behind again.

*SELL September Eurodollar at 95.295
*Stop 95.345
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 95.065
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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I said I was bearish on the DOW, I just wasn't expecting it to reverse so quickly! So much for getting our RSI test to time our sell order. The only good thing is that we've got a pretty solid support level to sell from.

*SELL December mini-DOW at 104.17
*Stop 104.57
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 102.71
*Approximate Profit Potential: $730 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS is giving us the same setup as the DOW, except RSI is closer to a testpoint. I'll look to sell, but only below 1600, which would put the market back into bear country.

*SELL December mini-NAS at 1597.5
*Stop 1607.0
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 1566.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $620 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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Yep, you guessed it, the same thing is happening in the S&P.

*SELL December mini-S&P at 1213.50
*Stop 1217.50
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1200
*Approximate Profit Potential: $675 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Nothing new in corn as prices backed off resistance. We'll keep the buy order in place and enter a sell if we get back to contract support.

*BUY December Corn at 210 3/4
*Stop 206 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 229 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $950 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Oats OZ5
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Good recovery by the bulls today as yesterday's session cast a lot of doubt as to whether they still had any influence on the market. I'm just watching tomorrow.
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November Rice RRX5
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Bought rice today as prices rallied through resistance. You'll have to leave stops where they are for at least one more day. Profit target remains 751.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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I'm grinning ear to ear as Soy Meal FINALLY fell off as we hoped it would. We managed to hang on for nearly a week's worth of bouncing around by the market. We're half way to our profit target at 163.1. Bring stops in above today's high...but not too tight.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil's going hunting for support after that big two day rally. I imagine more than a few traders are cashing in some profits, but look for another chance to buy in a day or two.
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November Soybean SX5
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A big about-face in Beans today as prices fell back to recent support. We'll look to sell the market short tomorrow if prices continue to fall.

*SELL November Soybeans at 554 3/4
*Stop 561 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $325 per contract
*Profit Target: 522 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1625 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat is still in limbo, but we'll run the buy order again tomorrow. I doubt we'll get filled though.

*BUY December Wheat at 354 1/4
*Stop 350 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 364 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $525 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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The Feeder Express continued higher today. Talk about a freight train. We might never get a chance to get on board!
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle had no trouble finding our buy order today as prices skyrocketed higher. We're halfway to our first profit target at 9187, so you'll want to adjust your stops a bit.

For those looking to be really flexible on the trade, breakeven is where you want to be. Everyone else might consider the intraday support at 9050 a good place to put stops below.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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A bit of resistance in Hogs, but nothing I'm getting to excited about. Look for prices to possibily fall off tomorrow. If they do, then we'll get excited.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Didn't get the bear day we were looking for. I'll keep watching...maybe we'll get it tomorrow.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Interesting...gold's still hovering above trendline support. I *should* place a buy order above the high, but this market is trading a little high, so I'll wait for confirmation of support before buying.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Ditto for silver.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa's filled last week's gap. A bounce here means we are in a bull trend, and break lower means it's still fair to sell. We should know tomorrow.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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With all this caffeine you'd think that coffee would be going somewhere...but it's not. RSI has hooked lower and as such we could see prices drop. It's a high risk trade but...

*SELL December Coffee at 9135
*Stop 9230
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $356 per contract
*Profit Target: 8715
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1575 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton broke RSI today instead of bouncing, so we can probably expect prices to continue lower. We're still in a bull market however, so I'm not ready to sell just yet.
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November OJ OJX5
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What a gip! We got such a nice fill in OJ yesterday only to have the market make a huge reversal and stop us out at breakeven. Oh well, no harm, no foul I guess.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Yikes, sugar looks as scary as ever. Think I'll avoid this market tomorrow.
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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, October 5, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Wednesday, October 5, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=3-23 HI=4-04 LO=3-21 CL=3-30

The open at 113-23 followed by the quick pop to -21 wasn't enough of a test of -16 to allow us to buy there. Thta turned out to be the defining moment of the day. Getting shut out cast sealed our fate for the day. We made a nice run from there to 114-04, the high of the day, I didn't buy at -03 as it came at the end of a big run and had shown signs of weakening in the previous 2 candles. Near entering final hour I sold 113-29 and was stopped at -27 for 2 measly ticks.

The close at 113-30 has us watching for plays off 114-00 and 113-16 again tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.420 HI=.470 LO=.420 CL=.435

I managed to survive the bounce to .470, barely. We wound up settling at .435. I'll watch closely tomorrow for a whisper to warrant an exit. If by some miracle we break .400 tomorrow I'll roll my stop to .405 as the beginning of an exit squeeze. I'm rolling the stop to .455 on the open.

We have to regroup around structure to initiate anything new.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=84 HI=85 LO=38 CL=50

A little gap at the open took us too far below 8600 to trade. We never looked back on the journey lower from there. Nothing done. I'll stay with 8600 and also place 8500 in play either way, buy or sell.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=48 HI=49 LO=28 CL=34

Nothing happening here either. I'm watching here until we get something definitive.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=5.00 HI=8.10 LO=4.50 CL=4.80

Crazed day. We started off selling 675.70 on the break of 676. I exited this trade at 673.70 when the momentum dried up and we went stagnant for about a half an hour for $200. I tried to sell the 674 break but couldn't get a number above .50 so I let it go. Next we bought 674.40 and exited at 675.90 for $150. I sold 675.70 and got out at 674.10 for $160. I bought 674.50 and exited at 677.20 for $270. Next came a sell at 677.60 and out at 675.30 for $230. I next sold 675.50 and out at 673.30 for another $220. Then came a sell at 671.70 which I bailed on at 668.10 for $360. We then sold 667.60 and banked at 665.00 ending the day adding $260. Our total for the day $1850. That MAY be the best single day performanace to date.

The full array from TT for tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=1.80 HI=2.00 LO=7.40 CL=9.30

I bought 471.50 and knew it wasn't right almoist from the moimute I placed it. I got out at 471.20 losing $30. I sold 468.60 and was stopped at B/E. $10 channel tomorrow if it shows.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.95 HI=.95 LO=.00 CL=.05

The good news is is it went right to our target; the bad news, it didn't give us the entry. We settled at 53.05 so we'll attack from 53.00 tomorrow. Buy it or sell it.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=02 HI=05 LO=81 CL=83

Close, but nothing. We'll play 1370 tomorrow either way.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.06 3/4 HI=2.06 3/4 LO=2.04 3/4 CL=2.05 3/4

I'm an observer tomorrow.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.50 1/2 HI=3.52 LO=3.45 1/2 CL=3.48 3/4

Too whacko for me, I'll watch tomorrow.

Erich's Update for Tuesday, October 4, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Tuesday, October 4, 2005
==================================================
"If you're going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big." - Donald Trump
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The Aussie buck stalled out today and never got close to finding our entry, so we're still flat this market. I'll be running the same trade again tomorrow, just in case we see a rally above resistance.

*BUY December Australian Dollar at 7627
*Stop 7597
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 7725
*Approximate Profit Potential: $990 per contract
*RRR: 3:1 *Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound continued lower today as expected; however we wouldn't have sold this market because of the opening gap. The small range today gives us another chance to sell again tomorrow, but I'm a little concerned about the support at the 175.25 gap, which was near today's close.

*SELL December British Pound at 174.97
*Stop 175.37
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 173.27
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1060 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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After our nice fill to the upside the other day, the Canadian Dollar reversed on us, stopping us out with $360 profit per contract. RSI is dipping lower, and we'll likely get another signal to buy in a day or two.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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Over the weekend I was debating doing something with the EC, and it turns out I should have as the market made a textbook break of support today. Rates are trading at the contract lows, so we could see a bounce here tomorrow.

I'll look to sell if they continue lower but I'm trying to give the market plenty of room on the entry, but even so I'm a little nervous about the trade.

*SELL December EuroFX at 119.07
*Stop 119.57
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $625 per contract
*Profit Target: 117.27
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2250 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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The Yen continued its beautiful decline today. If you had a profit taking order in place you would have been stopped out at the open with just over $2000 in profit per contract. If you're trailing your stops you'll want to bring them just above 8900 for tomorrow's session.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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I'm not quite sure what to make of the Peso, but one thing's for certain, we're up against strong resistance at the 92200 - 92300 range. If we see a reaction tomorrow I'll place buy orders above the resistance.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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Another tough call in the Swissy today as the market gapped our entry by a mere 4 points. If you passed on the trade you'll have another chance to sell tomorrow. If you're in the trade you'll want to leave stops where they are for one more session - if you can afford the risk.

*SELL December Swiss Franc at 7713
*Stop 7753
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $500 per contract
*Profit Target: 7557
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1950 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD had a pretty strong day today as rates made a nice break above resistance. I'll look to buy the market on a continuation, but only above the contract highs at 9030.

*BUY December US Dollar Index at 9043
*Stop 8997
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $460 per contract
*Profit Target: 9225
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1820 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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November Unleaded Gas HUX5
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Gas prices are beginning to look a lot more bearish, and while the market is technically still in an uptrend I would look for a chance to sell Gas soon.
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December Heating Oil HOZ5
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Got $500 bucks you don't know what to do with? If you do you might consider selling Heating Oil below today's support. Yes, I know the market is still in an uptrend, but the trend is not as strong as it was and the hook in RSI makes me think we could see a quickie reversal to trendline support at 199.

*SELL December Heating Oil at 208.50
*Stop 209.60
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $462 per contract
*Profit Target: 199.10
*Approximate Profit Potential: $3950 per contract
*RRR: 8 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Crude Oil CLZ5
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Crude is giving us the same look as Heating Oil, but here we have the added benefit of already being in a bear market - at least technically. I will look to see the support of the last few days at 6490 and cover the trade above the nearby resistance at 6500.

Eventhough the trade is really tight, we still have $450 at risk per contract. First profit target is 6200, but watch for a hesitation off the 6390 zone.

*SELL December Crude at 6465
*Stop 6510
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $450 per contract
*Profit Target: 6205
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2600 per contract
*RRR: 5 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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September (06) Eurodollar EDU6
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Darn Eurodollar is starting to tick me off as it had another strong day today. I'm still on the sidelines, waiting for the market to show us it's safe to enter. It can't be long now though...the ED normally doesn't go too far without stopping to catch its breath.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The DOW is likely to continue higher for the short term, but I still think we've got a big sell coming up in the next few days. Keep watching your RSI for a signal when to get in.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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The NAS is looking a little more bearish than the DOW, but I don't think it's quite ripe enough to sell. I'll give it at least one more day.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P resembles the DOW more than the NAS today. I think we will also see a continued rally for the short term, but the better potential lies in waiting for a sell signal.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Given how choppy corn has been I have to admit that I'm more than a little gunshy about buying into the market. I'd feel better if we already saw a reaction to the recent rally, but we might not get one. Therefore I'll look to buy on a break of the 210 resistance above the market.

*BUY December Corn at 210 3/4
*Stop 206 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 229 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $950 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats gapped our entry today and voided the buy order. To make matters worse today's session was a total fade by the bears, and as such we could see a lower session tomorrow.
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November Rice RRX5
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While Rice remains very overbought, we did see the market show us support today off teh 715 area. I would like to see prices continue lower, but I'll trail a buy order in case we see the rally resume early.

*BUY November Rough Rice at 732
*Stop 725.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $130 per contract
*Profit Target: 751.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $390 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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We're still hanging in with our bean meal short...but just barely. I'd really like to see the market head lower, but continued pressure from bean oil and the big bean market is making a reversal more likely.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Another big day in Bean Oil today. I think we're going to see a bit of profit taking tomorrow however, especially now that we're trading right at 2500's resistance.
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November Soybean SX5
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The big Bean market rallied today. I don't think prices have too far to go before we have another crack at this market. I'm thinking the resistance at 595 is likely to give beans some pause.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Good ole wheat traders, you can always count on them to second guess themselves after a big rally. Their hesitation shows us where the resistance is, and where we need to enter a long position from.

*BUY December Wheat at 354 1/4
*Stop 350 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 364 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $525 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeders took off again today. I can't believe the prices they're trading at. Still on the lookout for resistance so we can get onboard.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle hesitated today and showed us resistance at the 8940 line. I will look to buy this market long tomorrow on a break above the 8950 resistance and try to trade it to the weekly level at 9200.

*BUY October Live Cattle at 8962
*Stop 8892
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 9187
*Approximate Profit Potential: $900 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Low to Moderate
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs made a big bounce off support today. I wasn't expecting that. I thought we'd see a reversal come off the 6200 support, but I guess not. Keeping a lookout for another chance to buy.
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Yep, there goes copper again. If the pattern holds true we should see another lower session tomorrow. If we get it I'll look to buy the low the day after.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold's right at trendline support today. A higher session tomorrow will get me looking to buy again on Wednesday.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Ditto for silver.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Strange little day in cocoa today as prices fell off, but were bullish overall. I wouldn't mind seeing prices continue lower, but there's possible support from last week's gap, so I'll hold off one more day.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee is all over the place making it really difficult to take a position. I'll keep watching tomorrow.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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We got the RSI bounce this morning but cotton didn't trade high enough to find our order. No problem, we'll just run the trade again tomorrow.

*BUY December Cotton at 5463
*Stop 5413
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 5667
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1020 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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November OJ OJX5
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We got a nice fill in OJ today as prices easily broke the 103 resistance. Bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow (or just below today's low if you want to give the trade a little more room). First target is resistance at 109.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar continues to mock me making a huge breakout through the top of resistance today. Okay sugar, you ask for it. Watch for a killer sugar trade in the next day or two.

"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, October 4, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, October 4, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=4-17 HI=4-17 LO=3-18 CL=3-24

We opened selling 114-14 and rolled our way down to to 113-19. I rolled the stop to -21 and was stopped at -22 for 24 ticks, $750 ... welcome back, T. I bought 113-21 after the retest lower that carried to -18. I was stopped out at -25 for 4 more, $125

The close at 113-24 has us poised to jump on 113-16 or 114-00. Again -24 and -08 can be played after the initial trade off -16 or-00.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.470 HI=.470 LO=.405 CL=.425

We opened at 95.470 and immediately started lower. Following my outline in TT over the weekend I rolled the stop down to 95.475. We made it to .405, tried 3 times to break it and could not. It then bounced back to .425 where we closed. I was tempted to exit by the 3 failed attempts to go lower. I think I should have but I stammered around long enough the market made the hop back up so I decided to stay with it. I may regret that .

If you're not in with us I don't see any way to plat the ED here. We have no structure without going to the weekly or monthly. And I can't trade that. Sit tight, follow along and see if we can get out of this one and then get a pullback to .520 we can resell. Until then the trading brakes are on.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=94 HI=20 LO=85 CL=00

A gap lower took 8600 out of play initially. Later in the day we climbed above it and then broke back down thru it. I sold one at 8596 and got stopped out at 8603 losing $70. I'll play 8600 again tomorrow; that was the close today.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=33 HI=42 LO=24 CL=32

A gap lower of almost 50 points made short work of 7760. I'll watch again tomorrow to see what goes on. We are sitting on some very big support from the weekly chart.

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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=1.00 HI=7.30 LO=0.10 CL=5.30

We started the day buyinf a break above 672 at 672.40. I exited at 676.00 for a nice start to the day, $340. I bought 676.50 and got stopped out at 676.00 losing $50. We then sold 675.50 and exited at 673.30 for $220. I bought 674.30 and exited at 673.80 losing $50. Next up I sold 673.70 and exited at 672.10 for $160. I bought 672.40 and bailed at 674.00 for $160. I quit there totally out of gas. There were easily another 4-6 trades that conformed to our numbers and look like they'd have been contributors to the day's take. The full array from TT for tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=9.70 HI=1.70 LO=8.20 CL=9.30

Nothing today. $10 Channel tomorrow. Looks promising.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.60 HI=.30 LO=.40 CL=.24

I'll stay with my number looking to sell the retest of 54.50
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=93 HI=11 LO=88 CL=01

A gap lower open leapfrogged our number. We climbed back close to it at the day's high of 1411. The next candle was too far gone for me so I just let it go. I really wanted to sell it but the best I could get was 1406. I'll stay on 1413 for tomorrow and be willing to trade it either way.
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.07 HI=2.09 1/2 LO=2.05 CL=2.08 3/4

Nice little bounce to titilate the bulls. I'll take a stab at 2.10 tomorrow. I'll buy a break above it or sell a failed retest. Stop is back a penny and a quarter.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.50 1/2 HI=3.52 LO=3.45 1/2 CL=3.48 3/4

After the big move Friday it came as no surprise we back tracked some. If we get a retest of 3.50 tomorrow that fails to punch higher, I'll sell it. Again, stops back a penny and a quarter.

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part Two - Tom's Trades

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition - Part Two - is posted at the website: http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.html

Part One was emailed out to the Subscribers on Sunday, Test Drivers get theirs a few days after the fact. If you want your on time before the markets open, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Enjoy!

Erich's Update for Friday, September 30, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Friday, September 30, 2005
==================================================
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
A big opening gap right at the 7600 resistance sent the market lower today, although overall the session was higher. I don't see anything worth trading here at the moment.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
The extremely oversold market continues to hover around support. I considered selling tomorrow, but will press my luck a little further. If you're still short bring stops to 176.97.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
Got filled late in the day as the CD bounced off the 8500 support. You could leave stops where they are, or bring them under intraday support at 8540 - 45 to take some risk out of the trade.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
---------
I should be looking to sell the EC tomorrow, but I'm going to hold off one more session. There's something about holding an open contract here over the weekend that doesn't sit well with me.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
Today's session looks a little more promising for our short position as the market opened at the high and fell off the remainder of the day. Leave stops at 8963 for tomorrow.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
The Peso got as high as 91600 today which brings it into range to test the 91700 resistance tomorrow. This could be the last chance for the bears to turn the market again.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
The Swissy continues to hover at support. Like the EC I really should be selling a breakout tomorrow, but I'll hold off. I hope the market stays put for one more day!
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
If the USD didn't tag you out yet, the market would have gotten you today as rates ranged a little more than expected. It's not all bad though, as we walk with over $400 in profit per contract. Nothing new tomorrow.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
November Unleaded Gas HUX5
----------
No surprise at the bounce off the contract highs. I wish this market would calm down a bit so we could trade it again, but that doesn't seem likely for the near future.
----------
November Heating Oil HOX5
----------
A corresponding bounce in Heating Oil and a better resistance level to buy from, but I just can't bring myself to do it tomorrow.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
Crude held the trendline and has built solid support at 6500. We could sell this support tomorrow, but it's Friday, so I'll wait and see if we can get another crack from the 6380 support instead.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
I'm still looking for a good place to sell the ED from, and while I'm tempted just to jump in anywhere, I'll hold off...but not too much longer.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
Nice range today for daytraders, but nothing that we can do with it.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
Of course the NAS mirrors the DOW and also had a big range. RSI is pointing higher, so we might see a testpoint develop in a day or two.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
E-mini traders would have had fun with today's range as well. The market's made a sideways pennant, it will be interesting to see if the topside holds, or if we get a bounce.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
Corn continues to stall our short position. I can't say that I'm all that happy about it, but we got a flukie fill on momentum late yesterday. At least the risk isn't great if prices do back up on us. Leave stops where they are for now.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Another lackluster day in the oat market. Nothing interesting here tomorrow.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Another nice move in rice today as prices came just short of our profit target. I'm running a profit taking order tomorrow as well as bringing stops just under 730. You could also bring them under 732, which was intraday support.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Whew! Caught a break in Meal as prices held resistance and continued lower. We can finally bring stops to breakeven for tomorrow.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
A tough call in Bean Oil as the market gapped our entry by one tick. If you took the trade you're currently long (not a bad thing) and if you passed you're not (obviously). If you did take the trade bring stops below today's low. If prices break here we want to be gone.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
As expected Beans stopped us at breakeven today. Too bad as the market looked bearish overall. Nothing new here tomorrow.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat's actually beginning to resemble a bull market after a couple of weeks of not going anywhere. I'm going to pass tomorrow, but I hope the 335 - 336 resistance holds and we'll buy next week.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Feeders moved away from our sell order today. You could run the trade again tomorrow, as Feeders are prone to quick reversals, but it is a VERY HIGH RISK trade.

*SELL October Feeder Cattle at 113.95
*Stop 114.70
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 111.05
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1450 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Cattle continue to run higher today on a very strong session. I hope to see some hesitation creep into the market tomorrow so we can try to get onboard next week.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Oh-oh, things don't look so good for our hog trade as prices stalled out after getting us a late fill yesterday. Leave stops where they are or bring them below today's low for tomorrow's session.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Good ole copper, alternating sessions again. The market is beginning to trend, but I'm trying to figure out how we can get in, and stay in, with minimal risk.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
A bit of a surprise that gold continued to rally today, I thought for sure we'd see a pause after yesterday's big session. We're near the contract high again. Another hesitation would be nice.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Oooo baby baby! This is the kind of day I love to see! Whether you got a fill yesterday or today you'll be smiling from ear to ear as silver prices took off like a rocket!

Bring exit stops as close as you like. I'm using intraday support at 752 to hide my stops below. Profit target at 767.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Ooops...we got a gap, not a bounce at the 1400 resistance line. Technically prices have moved back into buy country...but not tomorrow.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee looks like it's setting up for another bounce tomorrow, but I'm going to pass for now.
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
If I didn't have my *don't trade cotton on a Friday* rule I might look at buying a break above today's high and the resistance at 5450. We've still got some big ranges happening, so we'll need a little luck to ride this out.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
Sitll watching OJ, but I don't like what I see. Nothing here tomorrow.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Why does sugar have to give me this setup on a Friday? Quite frankly I don't trust this market enough to buy it before the weekend. I do think prices might continue higher as the trend is very strong, but I'm holding off until next week.

Erich's Update for Thursday, September 29, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, September 29, 2005
==================================================
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
Strange little day in the AD as prices bounced, but RSI didn't. I was really hoping we'd get a chance to buy, but now I'm still on hold. Watching the 7600 resistance.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
The BP showed us some support today, which was to be expected given the very oversold nature of the market. We're likely to see at least a couple of days around this support zone. If you're still short the market bring stops to 177.47.
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The CD gave us our RSI test today, and while we might see a break lower, I'll continue to focus on buying with the trend. There is resistance around 8560, near today's high, which I'll use to buy the market long. First profit target is long term resistance at 8750, but we could see a run all the way to 8800 if it really gets going.

*BUY December Canadian Dollar at 8561
*Stop 8523
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $380 per contract
*Profit Target: 8747
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1860 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
A little bit of support at 120.50 is holding the market up for now. If we get one more day of this I'll look to sell from here. That's the plan anyway, now we'll see what the market does.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
If you brought your stops in above yesterday's close you would have been stopped out of our short trade this morning. If you're still short the market you can bring stops a little closer still to 8963.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
Got stopped out on the open as the Peso traded higher. Look for rates to continue in that direction for the immediate future. I thought about buying the market above today's high, but I think I'll hold off for the moment. We've got resistance at 91.700 which could keep rates down.
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
See why we exit on target? Especially with a support zone as obvious as the Swissy? Rates took a little bounce today, and while I'm not in the buying mood I would like to see them hover around here for another day or two.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
A bit of a bounce in the US Dollar today as the market held resistance at 8960. If you have stops below the 8910 resistance you're still in the trade, but just barely. Hopefully we'll see another stab at resistance tomorrow.
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
November Unleaded Gas HUX5
----------
Same old same old. The energy markets are still reeling from the effects of the hurricane, with each day's news worse than the last. Now it looks like at least a dozen refineries will stay off line for the short term, so look for Gas to continue to rise.

With the wicked ranges I can't bring myself to trade, but you might consider an option, or something *safe*.
----------
November Heating Oil HOX5
----------
I'm kicking myself a bit for not trading the RSI test in Heating Oil. As it turns out the breakout was a very nice one...good to know the ole hindsight is still 20/20.
----------
December Crude Oil CLZ5
----------
Crude was the tamest of the three energies and is actually testing the downtrend line today. It will be interesting to see if we get a reversal off here.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
The ED continues to hover near the support, but refuses to give us a good line to trade from. This market doesn't move too far without adjustment though, so hopefully we'll get something tomorrow.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
Nothing new here. This market is definitely without any trend.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
Chop, chop, chop. No thanks.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
The S&P is still looking the best of the bunch, but nothing worth trying to position trade at the moment.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
What looks like a whipsaw was actually a fill in the dying moments of the day as corn briefly dipped to our 202 3/4 order. I'm never sure about the effects of getting such a late fill, but for better or worse we're short now. Leave stops where they are. First profit target is 195 1/4.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Not much to talk about in oats today as the market didn't go anywhere. This stagnant type of day won't last long however.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Yessirree, I'm beginning to be a real fan of the rice market. What a beautiful session today as prices wasted no time filling our order and rallying higher from there. Bring stops at least to breakeven, or below 724 if you prefer.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Not looking too good for our Meal trade as both price and RSI is hooking. We'll probably get stopped out tomorrow, so keep those exit stops handy.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil gave us a nice bounce off support today as well as a corresponding bounce off the RSI trendline. I'll be looking to buy the market long above today's high and covering below the 2255 support.

*BUY December Bean Oil at 2283
*Stop 2253
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 2387
*Approximate Profit Potential: $624 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Soybeans backed up on us today and hooked in RSI. I'm not holding a lot of hope for our short play at the moment and expect to get stopped out tomorrow at breakeven.
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat is as choppy as I've ever seen it. We'll probably be on hold here for a while yet.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
A quick about face in Feeders today as prices fell back to support. Notice too how we have another RSI test? I normally wouldn't suggest this, especially in a market like Feeders, but a retracement might be pending.

*SELL October Feeder Cattle at 113.95
*Stop 114.70
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 111.05
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1450 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Naturally Cattle is mimicking Feeders, and you could look at selling today's low, but right now one countertrend trade is enough for me.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Another late session fill as hogs found our buy order today. We can't move exit stops just yet, so hopefully we'll see another strong session tomorrow. Pretty please?
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper looks like it's starting to trend again. If we get another hesitation before the weekend I'll get more serious about buying.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Big bounce in Gold on speculated weakness in the USD. I'd like to buy, but these big ranges always make me a little gun-shy. I might sit out tomorrow and see what happens.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
This one is really tough as prices hit our entry, but only in the dying minutes of trading, so you might not have been filled. I haven't heard from the broker yet to know if I'm long, but I'd be okay if I'm not. Leave exit stops where they are for tomorrow.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Cocoa went higher today as anticipated. 1400 is the place where I would look for a bounce, but we'll see what happens tomorrow.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee set higher support today, which is usually an indication of a new trend and the big session would suggest that higher prices might be in order...but this is coffee, so I'll stick with the original trade for now.

*SELL December Coffee at 8590
*Stop 8720
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $488 per contract
*Profit Target: 8025
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2060 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
I'm looking to buy Cotton, but I'm more than a little apprehensive after today's huge session. Still watching and waiting.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ's testing support, and I'm looking to buy, but we're a touch overbought and we've got strong resistance at 102 which I'm still studying. Nothing for tomorrow.
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
Yep, rub a little salt in the wound why don't you?

Sugar continued higher today with another strong move. Can't buy in at the moment because it's equivalent to jumping into a moving car, and like a car we have to wait for it to stop...if only for a moment.
==================================================
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