Thursday, September 29, 2005

Erich's Update for Wednesday, September 28, 2005

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Market Update for Wednesday, September 28, 2005
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No trades from Our Tom today. One of our recommended Brokers, Matt Shelley got his name in the Futuresource pulication again. http://www.futuresource.com/news/story.jsp?i=i4600007676084944960
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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Looks like the AD might hold support tomorrow. We're firmly at an RSI testpoint and a bounce would confirm the support. Let's see what happens tomorrow.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound tried to fake us out yesterday with that bullish fade session but to no avail as the market fell sharply today finding our first profit target in the process. If you exited here you're up $1700 per contract, if you're still trying to max out the trade the best place for stops is still 177.91.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD continued to hunt for support today. We're just shy of an RSI testpoint, so it should only be another day or two before we're ready to take a position. Support at 8460 is likely to be influential.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The EC continued lower today as well. The problem with this market is the huge ranges making it difficult to take a *reasonable* position. We'll keep watching though. Expect a bounce if we see rates test support at 119.50.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Like the song says "that's the way, a-ha a-ha, I like it!" What a wonderful gap in the Yen today as rates made a huge move in our favour! Gaps can be scary, but extremely profitable when they're in the right direction.

First profit target is support at 8850, but we've got over $1200 in profit as of the close. If you want to scoop as much of this as possible place stops above today's close, or high. If you're letting the trade ride you'll have to be much more patient and leave stops all the way back at 8993.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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An uneventful day in the Peso except that RSI is hooking higher. This has me a little concerned about our short position, so I'll bring stops in above the high to at least protect a little profit.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swiss Franc found our first profit target today. If you took profit here you earned yourself $1100 per contract! If you're still short the trade and want to ride it out you *should* leave stops above yesterday's high...but that's a long way away.

We're at serious support so a bounce is likely. No one will blame you for bringing stops in tighter. Remember, we can always re-enter.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD rallied higher today, but didn't get to our first target - yet. Still watching resistance at 8997 for a profit taking opportunity. Exit stops can go below 8910 resistance, or at 8887 if you're trying to ride the trade.
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2: ENERGIES
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November Unleaded Gas HUX5
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The market is still reeling from the hurricane last week. Just look at those ranges - crazy! I'll just keep watching for now.
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November Heating Oil HOX5
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Ooops! Had some bad data yesterday and didn't realize that we got whipped out of our Heating Oil sell order. Looking at RSI we might have been a little premature selling as we've got a testpoint today.

The market is extremely wild, and although I expect lower prices tomorrow I think I'll pass.
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December Crude Oil CLZ5
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Still waiting for crude to take another run at the support at 6390. Prices are extremely choppy right now however, and we might have to wait a while for crude to pick a direction.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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Okay, I know you're going to say I'm being too picky, but today's range isn't a great example of support. If we see a higher session tomorrow (which I think we might) I'll get more serious about placing a sell order.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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Here we go again, chop-city. We haven't wandered too far from the 10450 - 10460 support though and if we hang around here much longer I'll look to sell from here.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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As you might expect there was nothing decisive in the NAS either. I'm not sure what they're waiting for, but what ever it is, it hasn't shown up yet.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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The S&P is looking the most bearish of the bunch, and I was really tempted to sell the market below today's low, but again we've got the old range issue to deal with. The S&P doesn't usually run away on us, so I'll give it another day to see what happens.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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The problem with trading corn right now is the strong long term support below the market. Corn's likely heading to 195, but that doesn't give us a lot of elbow room to build a trade. It can be done, but it is tight!

*SELL December Corn at 202 3/4
*Stop 205 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 195 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $375 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats fell off today, but the big session is making me a little cautious about selling again tomorrow. Look for possible support at 152 and another chance to sell.
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November Rice RRX5
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Rice is looking a little wishy-washy as RSI is heading higher, but prices continue to struggle with resistance. I will place a buy order above the 715 resistance, but it's weak. I would much rather use the 720 line, but that's going to give us a lopsided trade.

*BUY November Rough Rice at 716.5
*Stop 709.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $140 per contract
*Profit Target: 739.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $460 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy Meal moved slightly lower today allowing us to bring stops closer to breakeven. You could get them to breakeven if you chose, or use the 173.7 resistance to cover the trade for $80 risk.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil is moving all over the place and fell off hard today to the 2220 support line. I'd like to say we're going to see a reaction here tomorrow, but the way this market has been it's a tough call.
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November Soybean SX5
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Soybeans did fall off substantially today giving us a little breathing room on our short position. RSI is at a testpoint so a hiccup might be around the corner tomorrow. The best place for exit stops is breakeven, but we do have about $450 in accumulated profit - halfway to our profit objective. As an alternative use the 560 intraday resistance level.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat seems to be going nowhere fast. Still nothing worth trading here [yawn!]
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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And they're off! Feeders broke the 114.30 resistance and are now tangling with the 114.60 contract highs. I *should* be buying a breakout, but truth be told Feeders scare me. I think I'll just watch for now.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Brutal range in cattle today tagged our exit stop at breakeven. I'm not too happy about that as I'm pretty sure we've got the direction nailed.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hogs moved away from resistance today, but even so I'm going to run the same order tomorrow. We're trading at significant support so we might see a bounce.

*BUY December Lean Hogs at 6337
*Stop 6287
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 6497
*Approximate Profit Potential: $640 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Here we go again with copper, giving us an RSI test and daring us to sell it. No thanks, not tomorrow.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold is *normalizing* a bit as prices approach the 460 resistance. This market has been off because of the strength in the USD, but we could see a bounce at the nearby support.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Silver definitely showed us reluctance to go lower as prices held on to support. I might throw in a buy order above the nearby resistance at 742 in case the market rallies. With silver's big ranges this is not a trade for the squimish.

*BUY December Silver at 743.5
*Stop 738.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 767
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1100 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa backed up on us today hitting our exit stops for a small profit. I still like this market short, but today's close would suggest higher prices tomorrow.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Coffee's getting close to an RSI test, so I'll re-do the sell order we were looking at earlier below last week's support. Nothing fancy here, but again we've got a big range market making this a very risky trade.

*SELL December Coffee at 8590
*Stop 8720
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $488 per contract
*Profit Target: 8025
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2060 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Wow! I haven't seen a day like that in cotton for some time! I don't know what caused the huge rally, but I'll find out. It's tough to say what to expect tomorrow as a pause wouldn't be out of the question; however cotton does have the ability to rally for several days before quitting.
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November OJ OJX5
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It's rather unfortunate that OJ gapped our buy order a couple of day's back as this is turning out to be a very nice little trade. Look for a reaction at 102 and another chance to buy.
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October Sugar SBV5
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So much for trying to sell sugar. I guess this market is a bonafide bull market and you won't hear me talking about shorting it for a while.
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RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]
http://www.OptimusFutures.com

Erich's Market Update for Tuesday, September 28, 2005

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Market Update for Tuesday, September 28, 2005
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No trades from Tom for a few days, he had an accident with a drill bit and safety glasses...well, you can imagine. The bandages come off Thurday!

"A wise man is never busy and a busy man is never wise." - L. Yutang
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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The AD is hovering around support at 7500. If we see a bounce tomorrow I'll look at buying again, otherwise we might have to get serious about selling.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound continued lower today but came up short of our profit target. You'll want to bring your exit stops in a bit as the market is looking pretty bullish and we might see a bounce tomorrow.

First profit target remains support at 176.53.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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The CD also looked more bullish today as rates rallied right from the open. I'll look at buying the CD on a break of the 8600 resistance just above the market tomorrow. Exit stops go below the nearby support at 8575.

*BUY December Canadian Dollar at 8607
*Stop 8573
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $340 per contract
*Profit Target: 8747
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1400 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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A bit of a bounce in the EC today, but nothing to get too excited about. This market is still in a solid downtrend for the moment, although I think we will see a bit of a rally starting tomorrow.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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The Yen stalled today which is not an indication of anything in particular; however it is a chance for us to get our exit stops at least to breakeven. Alternatively you can bring stops in above today's high if you wanted to protect a little profit as a bounce seems likely tomorrow.
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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Caught a break in the Peso today as the market continued lower away from our exit stops. Bring exit stops to breakeven for tomorrow.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5 ----------

The Swiss Franc is also finding *soft* support today as rates rallied from the open. You'll want to tighten stops according to the weekend plan, or simply put them above today's high.
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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The USD showed us the inverse of the other currency markets today as rates traded lower overall. Like the other markets you'll want to bring your exit stops in a bit for tomorrow's session.
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Hurricane Rita had a greater effect on this market than I figured as Gas rallied a bit today. I'm not ready to buy just yet as this market is extremely tipsy at the moment.

Nothing new tomrrow.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Caught a break in Heating Oil as the market gapped our sell order thereby voiding our trade - good thing too as prices would have wasted no time whipping us out of the trade.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude gave us a reation, albeit an early one, to the 6630 support today. See how support and resistance plainly tells you where the likely reaction areas are, even if you don't know the circumstances behind them?

Petty cool, huh?
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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The ED continued lower today and I'm kicking myself for not selling it last week when I had the chance. It shouldn't be too much longer before we get another chance to sell this market though.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow rallied a bit today and if we get another higher session tomorrow I'll look at trailing a sell order below the low.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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Same thing in the NAS as the index picked up a few points. If we see a higher session tomorrow I'll trail a sell order below the low. If we get a reaction I'll sell the low the day after.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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You guessed it. The same plan applies for the S&P.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
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Corn stopped us out of our buy today. I'm not too surprised though as it was a countertrend position, which is a long shot to begin with.

I normally don't trade the same market after a losing session so I'll hold off corn and see if the breakout sticks.
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December Oats OZ5
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Oats also backed up today which might confirm the resistance last week. I might consider selling oats if the market can continue lower tomorrow.
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November Rice RRX5
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I'm still looking for rice to pullback a little further before we look at buying again. The market looked a little bullish today so hopefully it won't run away on us tomorrow.
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December Soybean Meal SMZ5
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Soy Meal filled our short order today as prices broke nearby support. You could leave stops where they are for one more session or bring them closer to the 174 resistance line.
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December Soybean Oil BOZ5
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Bean Oil continued lower today, but the session looked a little bullish by the higher closing price. If we see prices trade higher tomorrow I'll look at buying above the resistance.
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November Soybean SX5
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A smallish day found our sell order today...but just barely. I'm not usually too happy about getting a marginal fill like this, but hopefully we'll see prices continue lower tomorrow.
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December Wheat WZ5
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Wheat continues to be choppy. I'm still keeping an eye on this market, but there's not much to trade at the moment.
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5: MEATS
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October Feeder Cattle FCV5
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Feeders continue to stall today. I'm still looking for another chance to get into this trade, but not tomorrow.
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October Live Cattle LCV5
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Cattle had a bit of a range today and if you brought your exit stops over the weekend you might have gotten stopped out. If you left your stops back you rode out the range and have a chance to bring them up today to breakeven.
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December Lean Hogs LHZ5
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Hog stalled on resistance today and give us another chance to buy the market on a resistance break. If we get a reaction I'll get more serious about selling.

*BUY December Lean Hogs at 6337
*Stop 6287
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 6497
*Approximate Profit Potential: $640 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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6: METALS
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December Copper HGZ5
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Yep, that's what I get for trying a countertrend trade in copper as the market did some serious backing up on us today. I'll be passing on this one tomorrow.
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December Gold GCZ5
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Gold's looking a little more aggressive today, especially the higher close. If we get a reaction tomorrow I'll look to buy again.
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December Silver SIZ5
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Same thing for silver.
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7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Cocoa inched lower today. It wasn't a huge session so leave exit stops where they are if you dare, otherwise bring them a few ticks above today's high.
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December Coffee KCZ5
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There goes coffee lower today, but the opening gap would have kept us out of the trade. I'll look to try and take a trade closer to support.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Cotton gapped our sell order today, but it looks as though we might have had the right idea about the market. I hope we'll have another chance at selling if we see a test of 4940 - 4950.
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November OJ OJX5
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A small day for OJ as prices found resistance at 100.50. I would like to see a reaction here so we can get another chance to buy this market, but until then I'm just watching.
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October Sugar SBV5
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Sugar is still holding support and while I would like to sell it again I'm a little gun-shy after getting whipped out of a couple of other countertrend trades.
==================================================
RECOMMENDED BROKER
==================================================
If you are looking for a broker that understands the recommendations and could help you place them, call Matt Zimberg at his toll free trading desk at 1-800-771-6PIT (6748) [or (561)282-6848]. You can also reach him via email at [email protected]

Traders Helping Traders Big Weekend Edition

The Big Weekend Edition is posted on the website!
http://www.supportandresistance.com/testdrive.htm

Remember that these are sent to subscribers on Sunday...it is only posted here several days to a week later. To get yours fresh and in good time, go to http://www.supportandresistance.com/subscribe.html

Enjoy!

"Tom's Trades" for Friday, September 23, 2005

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"Tom's Trades" for Friday, September 23, 2005
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=5-17 HI=5-29 LO=5-16 CL=5-23

This has been one horrible week in the Bonds, the worst week stretch I can remember in a very long time.

I began the day selling 115-28 and got stopped at 115-31 for a 3 tick loss. Sold -28 a second time and was stopped at -25 for plus 3. We ended the day with a push. The close today was 115-28. We need to see a 2 ticks up or more befoe selling -28. We are focused on 116-00 and 115-16 for tomorrow.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.775 HI=.780 LO=.720 CL=.730

Be careful of what you wish for ... I moved out from the front month to find volatility ... well, I found it today ...ouch. I'd sold .725 yesterday and had my stop at .735. I got stopped at .775 on the opening gap up for a $125 loser. I sold 95.775 in the next breath. It dropped right back to near yesterday's close, bounced back to .760 and then failed again to close at .730. I exited the trade near end of day at 95.725 canceling out the $125 loss with a $125 winner. A little balancing of the books play.

Tomorrow I will be poised to sell a break of .725 or buy a break above .730.
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3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDZ5 O=02 HI=02 LO=57 CL=66

We sold 8598 on the break of 8600, rolled to B/E at 90. We had a number of 5-10 point swings from candle to candle. When we printed 85 I rolled to 91 and was stopped out at 92 making a whole $60. We ticked back up to 8600 and I again sold 8598. More wild swings between candles so I tightened up the management. I again rolled to 91 on the break of 90 and got stopped out at 93 this time banking $50. Again the market tested 8600 and I sold 8595. We hit 75 and I rolled to 81 only to be stopped out at 87 picking up $80 this time. I said bu-bye for the day. Just too crazy to be exposing yourself to risk in this environment.
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4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFZ5 O=28 HI=28 LO=65 CL=75

I sold 7913 off the 20 break. I made all the rolls detailed in TT as we headed down to 7865. When it broke 70 I rolled the stop to 71 and got hit at 75 picking up $380.

We settled at 7875. I will sell the break of 75 tomorrow with a stop at 7881. I will also buy a failure there as it breaks above 7878 with a stop at 7871.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=1.60 HI=6.40 LO=5.70 CL=4.10

Nice timing in adding 651 yesterday. We sold 650.60. As we passed thru 647 I rolled my stop to 647.10 and got the "boot" at 647.50 for $250. Minutes later we bought 647.50 and rode it to 650.90 where I'd placed a limit order believing it was going to return to 651. Picked up another $240. I bought 650.80 and knew immediately we were on the wrong side. I got out at 651.90 losing $110. Next up we bought 651.30 and exited at 652.80 for $150. I sold 650.70 and bailed at 651.80 dropping $110 again. I sold 650.50 and out at 648.00 for $250. I missed the rest of the day due to meetings. Hopefully you continued on as our numbers provided a couple of pretty good $150-$200 trades later on.

The full array from TT tomorrow.
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=6.00 HI=6.30 LO=6.80 CL=0.30

Big gap down on the open kept us sidelined. Sells only off the $10 gold channel for tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.00 LO=.11 CL=.98

I sold 51.40. It was tough to get on board with the early extreme volatility. We went to 50.50 exactly and turned on a dime. I jumped out at 50.70 for 70 points, $350. I tried to buy something near 50.50 and again tried to get long at 51.00 ... I missed them both. Tight wads! I finally got one by 'em, buying at 51.10. We made a run to the 80's and I jumped out at 51.70 for 60 points, $300.

We closed at 51.97 so same numbers from TT again tomorrow. I will still buy a failed retest at 49.50 if we see it as it turns and heads north. The stop is 49.37. 52.00 is the obvious focus initially for tomorrow.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=54 HI=60 LO=37 CL=42

How low can you go? A peek at the weekly chart shows us 1340 is a very critical area. Then the last line of defense comes at 1320. I'm going to take a shot at buying a bounce off 1340 with a 1337 stop. If I get filled above 1350 I'll place the stop at 1343.
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.07 HI=2.10 LO=2.06 1/2 CL=2.08 1/4

I'll buy a break above 2.10 tomorrow. The usual penny and a quarter stop and rolls.

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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.28 HI=3.34 1/2 LO=3.27 CL=3.32 1/4

I feel like I kinda' dropped the ball on this one. We should've been there at 3.20. I'll sell the failure of 3.32 tomorrow. I'll also buy the break above 3.32 but I'm am very suspicious of that number right now. I think the "most likely" scenario is a failure but I'll do either.

Erich's Update for Friday, September 23, 2005

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Market Update for Friday, September 23, 2005
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"Permanence, perseverance and persistence in spite of all obstacles discouragements, and impossibilities: It is this, that in all things distringuishese the strong soul from the weak." - Thomas Carlyle
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1: CURRENCIES
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December Australian Dollar ADZ5
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Okay, now we're getting somewhere. The AD took a serious dip today and it looks as though rates are finally going hunting for support. Keep and eye on the 7550 area and a coinciding bounce off of RSI.
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December British Pound BPZ5
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The Pound made a solid move to the downside today finding our sell order in the process. The market continued lower until struggling with support at 173-ish. If you can afford the risk you might leave stops where they are. If you're anxious to move them bring them above the 179.50 resistance.

With a little luck we'll get them to breakeven tomorrow.
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December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
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We've been lucky holding off on the CD for the last couple of days. I'll continue to push my luck and wait for an RSI test, which might come early next week.
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December EuroFX ECZ5
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The Euro had a bullish bearish session today - trading higher, but overall it was a bearish day. I do think the Euro is poised to head lower, but I'm not comfortable selling until we can bring the 121 support line into the equation.
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December Japanese Yen JYZ5
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Our patience might finally be rewarded as the Yen is giving us a tradeable formation today. Notice the confirmation of resistance as rates traded lower? Do you also see the support at 9030 and 9015? I'll look to sell the market short below one and cover above the other. I'll give the market a little extra room on the exit side, just because I don't want to squeeze too tight.

*SELL December Japanese Yen at 9013
*Stop 9051
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $475 per contract
*Profit Target: 8857
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1950 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Mexican Peso MPZ5
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The Peso struggled lower today and finally found our sell order. It was a pretty good session overall, but I hate *just* getting filled. We can't do much with the stops right now, so hold them where they are.
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December Swiss Franc SFZ5
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The Swiss Franc also confirmed resistance today and now finds itself against the double hit on 7865's support. I will look at selling the market short tomorrow below secondary support and use the 7865 line to cover the trade. First profit target are the contract lows at 7757.

*SELL December Swiss Franc at 7847
*Stop 7877
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 7757
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1125 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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December US Dollar Index DXZ5
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Wow, the USD is *still* fighting the 8850 - 8860 resistance. RSI is showing this market quite overbought at the moment, but I'll run our buy order again tomorrow. Obviously we've got the line in the sand right.

*BUY December US Dollar Index 8867
*Stop 8837
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8997
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
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2: ENERGIES
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October Unleaded Gas HUV5
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Hurricane Rita continues to whip the Gas market into a buying frenzy. We could have bought the breakout above yesterday's high, but given these ranges we would never be able to hold on to the trade until the next day.
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October Heating Oil HOV5
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Heating Oil looks much more like a topping formation today. If resistance holds and prices trade lower tomorrow, everyone and their brother will be looking to sell this market.
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October Crude Oil CLV5
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Crude is looking even more bearish than Heating Oil and we should expect the same. I'm not too concerned about the market running away as there is hefty support at 6630 which will be a major barrier for the bears.
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3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
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June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
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What's this? Is the Eurodollar seriously considering a rally? Rates are holding the trendline pretty close, but I don't think I'm quite ready to buy - yet.
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December mini-DOW YMZ5
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The Dow would have tagged you out if you brought stops down to the 10460 resistance for today. It's not all bad though as you would walk with $185 in profit per contract. If you left stops at breakeven then you're still in the game, but you'll have to hold the stops there for tomorrow.
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December mini-NAS NQZ5
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A similar story in the NAS today with the exception that breakeven wasn't good enough to keep you in the market. If you got stopped at 1580 you at least made enough to cover your commissions.
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December mini-S&P ESZ5
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Gee, a bounce off 1210, imagine that. ;-)

The S&P was probably the driving force behind today's bounce in the other two indices. I would welcome another higher session tomorrow which would make me very happy to short the market next week.
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4: GRAINS
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December Corn CZ5
----------
Corn finally broke out of the sideways channel, but to the upside. I would have preferred a trend breakout short, but I realize these are extremely low prices for this market. We can't do too much with our stops yet, but hopefully we can get them to breakeven tomorrow. That is definitely a priority.
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
A pretty lame session in oats today, but it did trade high enough to find our buy order. While it is extremely tempting to bring stops below today's low I would probably leave them where they are for one more day. I know a break of 158 means we're on the wrong side of the market, but a break of 160? I'm not so sure about that.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Rice continued it's hard rally today. Now I'm really choked that I didn't buy when I had the chance. We're not alone however. Watch for prices to find resistance tomorrow and head lower for at least a couple of days before rallying again.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Soy Meal is still confined within the last couple of day's range. You could look to sell support tomorrow, but I think I'll give it until Monday before committing. It's a gamble, of course, but I think a lot of traders might be hesitant about holding a position over the weekend.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil slowed today as prices traded closer to the 2390 - 2400 resistance. I wouldn't mind seeing a stall again tomorrow as that would give us a chance to buy into this market with greater predictability.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Beans stalled on resistance at 585 today. I'll run our short below this week's support again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get a fill.

*SELL November Soybeans at 566 3/4
*Stop 572 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 550 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Don't tell me wheat has finally committed to something? Prices made a very clean break of the 329 and 332 resistance zones. I'm not going to jump in on a Friday, but we'll definitely be giving this one a good look over the weekend.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Close but no cigar as Feeder's made a big run up today, but not high enough to find our buy order. Now we're faced with a serious problem, as it is not above Feeders to simply poke above resistance and try and whipsaw us tomorrow.

I might adjust the figures a bit to reflect today's session. Of course you could still run the numbers from the other day if you prefer.

*BUY October Feeder Cattle at 114.325
*Stop 113.575
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $375 per contract
*Profit Target: 116.925
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Cattle followed Feeders higher today and you could look at buying a break above this week's high. It's a tough trade however as the profit target needs to be the long term resistance at 8940 instead of the daily contract highs.

*BUY October Live Cattle at 8672
*Stop 8617
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $220 per contract
*Profit Target: 8927
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1020 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
I still like Hogs short and I'm still watching the 6130 support for a chance to sell. Patience.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper looks like it's going to head south tomorrow and I should sell but we're basing the trade on some pretty flimsy resistance numbers and it's countertrend to boot. Can you say *RISKY*?

*SELL December Copper at 469.95
*Stop 171.05
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 165.80
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1037 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
The Gold market cleared it's throat today as traders went stop hunting. Another couple of days like today and I think it will be safe to get serious about gold again.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Mirror image of what happened in gold today. Way too hot to handle right now.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Cocoa continued lower today allowing us to bring stops in above the 1370 resistance for tomorrow. Don't push too hard as there might be a slight hiccup along the way.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee's daily gaps are downright scary. I'll run our short trade again tomorrow, but I don't think we're going to get filled.

*SELL December Coffee at 8590
*Stop 8720
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $487 per contract
*Profit Target: 8040
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2060 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton continues to chop today, although the market definitely didn't like the lower prices...either that or it's a last ditch effort by the bulls to run prices up. Just watching tomorrow.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ's continued higher today, but not high enough to find our buy order. I'll run the trade again tomorrow, but I'll adjust the figures to allow for today's action.

*BUY November OJ at 9855
*Stop 9765
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $135 per contract
*Profit Target: 10250
*Approximate Profit Potential: $590 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
It didn't take sugar long to find support, did it? I still like the market short and the resistance at 1070 should hold it down, but I'll pass tomorrow.

"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, September 22, 2005

========================================================
"Tom's Trades" for Thursday, September 22, 2005
========================================================
========================================================
1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
========================================================
USDZ5 O=5-17 HI=5-29 LO=5-16 CL=5-23

We were only successful in getting 1 trade off today. We bought 1 at 115-21 and got stopped out at -23 for 2 ticks. From there the bonds pretty much went to sleep. We floated around between -21 and -27. I tried to buy -21 once and couldn't get it. Pretty ugly day.

The close at 115-23 has us on the trail of 115-16 and 116-00 for openers.
========================================================
2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
========================================================
EDH6 O=.720 HI=.735 LO=.715 CL=.715

Yesterday I did get stopped out of the trade, exiting at 95.745 for a small profit. I didn't mind so much holding the trade into the FOMC meeting with the stop as close as I had it. That said, holding a trade with a short stop and initiating a trade are 2 different animals. I sat out the rest of the day once stopped.

Look what the ED did this morning ... bounced right back to levels pre FOMC. I sold .725 again today with a stop at 95.735. You can look for a press back to or near that level and sell a failure.
========================================================
3: DECEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
========================================================
CDZ5 O=94 HI†10 LO=49 CL=67

By now, you've noticed I forgot to change the headings for CD and SF. The numbers were DEC but the label said Sept. Bad cop, no donut!

The market is showing us some weakness but nothing approaching the kind of break you know is coming. We did have about a 60 point range today considering high and low but only about 27 points looking at open and close. Keep the TT numbers in mind but we'll also sell aretest of 8600 that fails as it heads lower. The stop is 8603. If you're a little less risk adverse than I, you might consider 86111 or 13
========================================================
4: DECEMBER SWISS FRANC
========================================================
SFZ5 O=39 HI=45 LO=17 CL=23

We worked our way down to retest 7920. Volume was quite light and the price flow after the retest blocked our execution effort. Nothing done. Stay on the same numbers from TT.
========================================================
5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
========================================================
ERTZ5 O=2.20 HI=2.90 LO=1.40 CL=1.70

We missed a biggie on Tuesday. We'd have been positioned perfectly for the post FOMC drop ... this time. Maybe not the next 10 times. Standing aside was the right thing to do ... it was hard to watch that $1100 move though.

Wednesday, I sold 657.70 and out at 656.40 for $130. I bought 658.40 and exited at 660.50 for $210. We then sold 657.80 on a lucky fill and exited at 655.40 for $240. We then bought 656.50 and exited at 657.70 for $120. I sold 657.30 and out at 653.60 for $370. We then bought 654.40 and exited at 656.50 for another $210. Our final trade of the day was a sell at 653.80 which we exited at 652.70 closing out with $110.

We'll add 651 to the mix of numbers in the array from TT.
========================================================
6: DECEMBER GOLD
========================================================
GCZ5 O=0.20 HI=3.60 LO=9.80 CL=2.60

More power. Still no buy for me. Sells only off the $10 gold channel for tomorrow.
========================================================
7: DECEMBER COTTON
========================================================
CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.00 LO=.11 CL=.98

After clipping them for 100 points yesterday we came right back and bought 51.55 after the big gap up this morning. Had today's gap not been so big I think I might have carried this trade home for the night. I bailed at 51.75, for $100.

Same numbers from TT again tomorrow. I will also buy a failed retest at 49.50 as it turns and heads north. The stop is 49.37. I'll be looking hard at 52.00
========================================================
8: DECEMBER COCOA
========================================================
COZ5 O=85 HI=95 LO=51 CL=52

Nice fake out. The softness continues. "bout time for a civil war or something. I'll stick with the TT numbers
========================================================
9: DECEMBER CORN
========================================================
CZ5 O=2.07 1/4 HI=2.07 1/2 LO=2.05 CL=2.06 1/2

I'm very tempted to buy another retest of 2.06 anything after today's almost mirror image of yesterday's trade ... and the befoe that and the day before that ... I'm also very suspicious. I'll sit tight yet another day.
========================================================
10: DECEMBER WHEAT
========================================================
WZ5 O=3.21 HI=3.25 1/2 LO=3.20 CL=3.25 1/4

I'll stay with y numbers from TT. We got another nice bounce off 3.20 today. I'll play it if they give us another one of those.

Erich's Update for Thursday, September 22, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Thursday, September 22, 2005 ================================================== ==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
Nothing new in the Aussie as the market continues to chop. Still looking for something to trade here, but I don't see it.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
We got gapped on the buy order this morning, but RSI continues to test the trendline. I don't think we're going to see the Pound head much higher, so I'll run the sell tomorrow.

*SEE December British Pound at 179.27
*Stop 180.03
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $475 per contract
*Profit Target: 176.53
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1712 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The CD is definitely struggling with resistance and RSI is heading lower. Expect lower rates tomorrow and another chance to buy off the testpoint.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
The Euro showed us support at 121.50 today as the market made a nice bounce. The trend is still down, so if we see rates rally I'll trail a sell order. I'll hold off one more day before placing my sell below the 121.50 support.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
Chop-city in the Yen as the market took back yesterday's bear move and then some. I still think rates are heading lower, but this is a little too crazy for me right now.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
The Peso gave us a nice bounce off the 91.700 resistance today which is making me keen to sell tomorrow. You could run the original plan, or tighten the numbers as follows:

*SELL December Mexican Peso at 90.950
*Stop 91.450
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $250 per contract
*Profit Target: 88.425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1260 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
The Swiss Franc continues to be choppy today. Today's session smacks of a pullback move in which case we could expect rates to find resistance soon before heading lower.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
Crazy day in the USD as the market continues to struggle with resistance at 8850 - 8860. I'll run the buy order again tomorrow as we got an RSI break today.

*BUY December US Dollar Index 8867
*Stop 8837
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8997
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
October Unleaded Gas HUV5
----------
Is Gas making a topping formation? I think so, but I'll wait for confirmation of resistance before getting on board.
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
Heating Oil also seems to be topping out, but like Gas I'll wait for prices to confirm resistance before selling.
----------
October Crude Oil CLV5
----------
Crude ran into resistance at 6830 which seem to give the market pause. A lower session here tomorrow will get me serious about selling again.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
Got the hiccup we were looking for, but today's session was abnormally small. I think I'll give it another day before committing to anything.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
We got a nice fill on our DOW trade today as rates continued lower through support. Time to bring exit stops at least to breakeven or above the 10460 resistance for tomorrow. First profit target is support at 10343.
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
Ditto for the NAS as the market also broke support finding our sell order. Bring exit stops to breakeven for tomorrow. First target is support at 1535.5.
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
I guess I should have sold the S&P anyway. ;-( Not to worry, we should get another chance off support at 1210.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
The Corn channel continues...so I'll continue to run the same trade.

*SELL December Corn at 204 3/4
*Stop 207 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 195 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*BUY December Corn at 209 1/4
*Stop 205 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 220 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
I'm tempted to buy oats higher tomorrow as prices seem to be holding support. It's not the best trade, but I'll buy a break of tomorrow's high and cover under the 158 support.

*BUY December Oats at 160 3/4
*Stop 157 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $150 per contract
*Profit Target: 169 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $450 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Rice definitely traded higher today. Needless to say I'm disappointed we didn't take the long position we were thinking of, but that's okay, we'll get another chance in a day or two.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Soy Meal tagged our exit stops this morning taking us out of the trade with a little over $600 in profit per contract. I still like the short side here, but I think we will see a more substantial pullback for the next few days.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
Bean Oil officially became a bull market today as prices traded higher. We've got resistance above the high at 2360 and 2390 which might hold up prices long enough for us to buy.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Beans retreated from support today. I still like this market short, so I'll run the sell order again tomorrow, but I doubt we'll get filled.

*SELL November Soybeans at 566 3/4
*Stop 572 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 550 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat is still bouncing all over the place. Today's close looks like higher prices will follow tomorrow, but I'm just watching for now.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Now Feeders are teasing us by heading a little lower. I don't think the market has much downward momentum however and will continue to look long. If we see prices retreat to support at 111.50 I'll update the entry parameters.

*BUY October Feeder Cattle at 114.025
*Stop 113.425
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 116.925
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1450 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Cattle also fell off today, which is a welcome sight. The bullish session could hint of higher prices tomorrow, but I would like to see them continue lower to nearby support at 8450 before buying.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Hogs are looking much more bearish and I do expect prices to fall tomorrow. Since we're in bullish territory I'll forego a sell right now, but I'll be watching the 6130 support for a chance to enter short.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
I'm still watching copper for a good buy signal. The market seems like it is ready to trend again...but I'm not sure.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Gold is holding support, and I know I'm probably going to regret this, but I'll hold off buying at the moment. The market is so extremely overbought I'd like to see a bit of an adjustment...even a little one.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Silver's following gold's lead, and I'd like to handle it the same way.
=================================================
7: SOFTS
==================================================
----------
December Cocoa CCZ5
----------
Steady decline in cocoa today found our sell order at the end of the session. If you ran the trade that long then you're currently short, if not consider selling below the 1350 support tomorrow.
----------
December Coffee KCZ5
----------
Coffee gave us a reaction to resistance today. I might look at selling below this week's low, but this is a high risk trade to say the least. The best we can do for exit stops is the support on today's low, so let's hope for a strong breakout if prices head lower.

*SELL December Coffee at 8590
*Stop 8720
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $487 per contract
*Profit Target: 8040
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2060 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Cotton CTZ5
----------
Cotton is totally without trend...and it shows. Prices ran into trendline resistance at 5200 today, so if we get a reaction here I'll look to sell again.
----------
November OJ OJX5
----------
OJ's smallish session, and the fact that it held support makes me think we will see prices continue higher tomorrow. I'll place a buy order above this week's high and look to cover the trade below support at 9730.

*BUY November OJ at 9845
*Stop 9725
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $180 per contract
*Profit Target: 10250
*Approximate Profit Potential: $607 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
October Sugar SBV5
----------
We had sugar cornered, but the market squeezed past our entry order by gapping us a couple of ticks. Too bad as prices made a huge decline today. We're at trendline support so we'll see if we get a bounce tomorrow.

Erich's Update for Wednesday, September 21, 2005

==================================================
Market Update for Wednesday, September 21, 2005
==================================================
"Permanence, perseverance and persistence in spite of all obstacles discouragements, and impossibilities: It is this, that in all things distringuishese the strong soul from the weak." - Thomas Carlyle
==================================================
1: CURRENCIES
==================================================
----------
December Australian Dollar ADZ5
----------
The Aussie see-saw continued today. Unfortunately there isn't anything tradeable here at the moment. Maybe we'll have a go when the market gets to 7700.
----------
December British Pound BPZ5
----------
Interesting, the Pound bounced off the RSI trendline (slightly) but traded lower overall. I'll run the same numbers tomorrow.

*BUY December British Pound at 180.47
*Stop 179.77
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $437 per contract
*Profit Target: 183.97
*Approximate Profit Potential: $2187 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH

OR

*SEE December British Pound at 179.27
*Stop 180.03
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $475 per contract
*Profit Target: 176.53
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1712 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Canadian Dollar CDZ5
----------
The CD held up on resistance at 8600 today. If I were smart I'd look to buy a break above resistance tomorrow, but I'll see if we can't get an RSI test out of the trade.
----------
December EuroFX ECZ5
----------
The Euro is still in no man's land. I'm thinking that rates will continue lower, but there's nothing to trade off of here.
----------
December Japanese Yen JYZ5
----------
The Yen continued lower today through the 9050 support line. In hindsight this was a good enough support area to take a trade off of; however as choppy as the Yen has been I was a little gun-shy.
----------
December Mexican Peso MPZ5
----------
What a small day in the Peso today. It is certainly tempting to tighten our trade to reflect today's action, but I'll stick with the original numbers.

*SELL December Mexican Peso at 90.475
*Stop 91.025
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 88.425
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1025 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: HIGH
----------
December Swiss Franc SFZ5
----------
The Swiss Franc is also in flounder-city and I'd dearly like to short it again, but the timing isn't right. With a little luck we'll get an RSI test to help us with our timing.
----------
December US Dollar Index DXZ5
----------
The USD is still under the 8850 resistance range. I'll look to buy the market on a break above 8850 and cover the trade on the other side of the resistance level. Next stop: the contract highs.

*BUY December US Dollar Index 8867
*Stop 8837
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 8997
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1300 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
==================================================
2: ENERGIES
==================================================
----------
October Unleaded Gas HUV5
----------
Yeesch, what a day in Gas. This market is just too volatile right now to try and trade. If you do decide to give it a go, be grateful for anything you can pull out of this market.
----------
October Heating Oil HOV5
----------
Heating Oil followed Gas around today, mirroring it's bearish session. HO is giving us a slightly better set up as we at least have some support on the lows, and a break through here could be a sell, but the ranges are huge and very difficult to catch. I think I'll just wait until Rita blows through.
----------
October Crude Oil CLV5
----------
Ditto for Crude. I'll be more interested once we get back to 6325's support.
==================================================
3: FINANCIALS/INDICES
==================================================
----------
June (06) Eurodollar EDM6
----------
Guess I should have followed my gut and sold the ED today as we got a nice break through support. Now that we're officially bearish again we can look for the next selling opportunity...and with any luck it might show up tomorrow.
----------
December mini-DOW YMZ5
----------
The Dow fell through support today bringing us back into bear territory. RSI has also hooked and looks poised to head lower. The trend remains choppy, but I might look to sell the market below the 10500 support anyway.

*SELL December mini-DOW at 10497
*Stop 10537
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 10343
*Approximate Profit Potential: $770 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December mini-NAS NQZ5
----------
Unlike the S&P and DOW, the NAS is actually at trendline support today, this means we can either expect a break or bounce tomorrow. We've got decent support nearby at 1584 which I'll use to sell short, and cover above 1590 should the market reverse.

*SELL December mini-NAS at 1582.5
*Stop 1592.5
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $200 per contract
*Profit Target: 1535.5
*Approximate Profit Potential: $940 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December mini-S&P ESZ5
----------
The S&P should also be a sell tomorrow; however the support at 1221 is giving me some pause...and it might do the same to the market too.
==================================================
4: GRAINS
==================================================
----------
December Corn CZ5
----------
The Corn channel continues...so I'll continue to run the same trade.

*SELL December Corn at 204 3/4
*Stop 207 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $125 per contract
*Profit Target: 195 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $475 per contract
*RRR: 3 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate

OR

*BUY December Corn at 209 1/4
*Stop 205 3/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $175 per contract
*Profit Target: 220 3/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $575 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Oats OZ5
----------
Still a very disorganized market. Nothing new here tomorrow.
----------
November Rice RRX5
----------
Rice gapped our entry this morning thereby voiding our trade...and that was probably a good thing today as prices faded the open the rest of the session. RSI is also hooking higher, so we might see higher prices here afterall.

Technically we're still in short-country, so I'll hold off buying at the moment.
----------
December Soybean Meal SMZ5
----------
Soy Meal continued lower today, so you can bring your stops in above today's high. Next stop is support at 171.
----------
December Soybean Oil BOZ5
----------
"Nuts-o" is the word I would use to describe the Bean Oil market. After yesterday's rally it looked like it was going to the moon, but not today.
----------
November Soybean SX5
----------
Beans might be giving us another chance to sell tomorrow on a break of this week's support. I'll give the market a couple of extra ticks just to be sure though.

*SELL November Soybeans at 566 3/4
*Stop 572 1/4
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $275 per contract
*Profit Target: 550 1/4
*Approximate Profit Potential: $825 per contract
*RRR: 3:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
December Wheat WZ5
----------
Wheat still doesn't look tradeable at the moment. This is normally one of my favourite markets, but there's nothing we can do but wait.
==================================================
5: MEATS
==================================================
----------
October Feeder Cattle FCV5
----------
Feeder's are still teasing us today. I'll run the same trade tomorrow, but you could tighten the numbers to buy above today's high if you wanted.

*BUY October Feeder Cattle at 114.025
*Stop 113.425
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $300 per contract
*Profit Target: 116.925
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1450 per contract
*RRR: 4 1/2:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
----------
October Live Cattle LCV5
----------
Cattle is giving us a similar setup; however we've got resistance at 8650 which is getting in the way of buying tomorrow. I might hold off another day to see how prices react to 8650, if at all.
----------
December Lean Hogs LHZ5
----------
Ooops, Hogs didn't waste anytime rallying today as the market set another new high. If we get a hiccup here tomorrow (which I think we might) I'll look at putting together a trade.
==================================================
6: METALS
==================================================
----------
December Copper HGZ5
----------
Copper continues to be elusive. Too bad...I would have liked to pick up on the ranges of the last couple of days.
----------
December Gold GCZ5
----------
Gold is giving us another look, but given the extremely overbought nature of the market I'm going to give it one more day before I put together an order. Hopefully the market won't run away on us.
----------
December Silver SIZ5
----------
Silver's following gold's lead, and I'd like to handle it the same way.
==================================================
7: SOFTS
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December Cocoa CCZ5
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Got the bounce in cocoa that we were looking for. I'm going to take a more aggressive posture in this market and look at selling a tick below this week's low. If you want to be a little safer, wait until the other side of the 1350 line before getting in.

There is major long term support at 1300 which we'll have to keep in mind, but I'm going to use the next support at 1200 as my target.

*SELL December Cocoa at 1353
*Stop 1381
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $280 per contract
*Profit Target: 1211
*Approximate Profit Potential: $1420 per contract
*RRR: 5:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH
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December Coffee KCZ5
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Hurricane Rita might be pushing coffee prices higher today. Look for resistance at 9500 before we get another chance to sell this market short.
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December Cotton CTZ5
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Nasty reversal today as only cotton can do. I'm happy to see the lower session however, as maybe this is a sign that things are getting back to *normal*. I won't sell just yet, but will keep watching 4940.
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November OJ OJX5
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If you didn't get out of OJ yesterday you would have stopped out with profit after today's session. Good job, take the rest of the day off. ;-)
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October Sugar SBV5
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RSI too a big nosedive today. This makes me think that we could see a big reversal in sugar tomorrow. NOTE: that this is a countertrend trade and inherently more risky than sticking with the trend, but even so I might look at selling support tomorrow.

*SELL March Sugar at 1074
*Stop 1091
*Approximate Risk Exposure: $190 per contract
*Profit Target: 997
*Approximate Profit Potential: $862 per contract
*RRR: 4:1
*Degree of Risk: Moderate to HIGH