"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, September 20, 2005
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"Tom's Trades" for Tuesday, September 20, 2005
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We have an FOMC meeting to contend with tomorrow. Holiday in the Russell, the currencies and Gold. I will trade the bonds but will be flat and gone by 12:30 CDT.
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1: DECEMBER 30 YEAR T BOND
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USDZ5 O=4-26 HI=4-31 LO=4-18 CL=4-27
It took a while to get there but finally we bought at 114-21. It backed up on us quickly and stopped us out at -19 for a loss of 2 ticks. We bought -21 a second time with better results. We zoomed to -31 and failed. I exited at -29 for 8 ticks, 6 net. I sold -28 and was stopped at B/E.
With a close at 114-27 we are poised for action tomorrow at 115-00 and 114-16. If you get great setups on -24 or -08 trade them. We are done trading at 12:30 tomorrow because of the FOMC Meeting.
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2: MARCH 06 EURODOLLAR
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EDH6 O=.735 HI=.780 LO=.720 CL=.770
I sold 95.725, I reversed the trade at 95.735 losing $25 on the short trade. We climbed nicely to .780. As we broke 95.775 I rolled to .755. I now sit long from .735 with my stop at .755 looking for .850 to show.
For tomorrow, those on the sidelines might want to watch for a move to .800 and sell a failure there or at .850. If we get the failure at .800 I will have my stop pretty tight there so any failure will get me and I'll probably be reversing or selling there as well. Just use the numbers in reverse from TT. If we press 780 again tomorrow and fail I will reverse there closing out the long and initiating a short trade. I'm going to hold my trade thru the fomc meeting.
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3: SEPTEMBER CANADIAN DOLLAR
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CDU5 O=98 HI=98 LO=95 CL=78
All it did was open and chug higher. Nothing done. I'll stay with the TT numbers until we get some structure up here or until we fall back to 8500. No trades in CD period tomorrow as we'll sit it out on the sidelines due to FOMC.
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4: SEPTEMBER SWISS FRANC
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SFU5 O=86 HI=04 LO=72 CL=91
We gapped lower at the open and never got close to our numbers. I'll stick with them 1 more day. It has reversed now though ... a break ABOVE and a FAILURE to press higher not lower.
NO TRADES TOMORROW IN SF.
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5: DECEMBER MINI RUSSELL 2000
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ERTZ5 O=4.80 HI=5.70 LO=8.70 CL=1.70
The trading window opened with the market bouncing around 675-674. We opened the day buying 674.40 and getting stopped out at .30 on a B/E stop losing $10. We did the same trade a second time and got tossed at .40 for B/E. Next we sold 673.70. This one I managed to exit at 672.30 for $140. I tried twice to buy 672.40 or so and failed to get it both times. Third time wa sa charm as we bought 672.50. Predictably it ran out of gas at 674 where I exited, 674.00 for $150. I then sold 673.70 and rode it to 672 where we exited at .20 for $150. I sold 671.70 and exited at 672.10 losing $40. At this point I took about an hour break to recharge the batteries and work on some less demanding trades. I bought 672.40 and exited at 673.10 for $70. We then sold 671.70 which I bailed on at 670.00 for $170. We were a little premature n our exit as I panicked a little when we bounced so hard off 669.30. I quit at that point.
All the TT numbers for tomorrow. I see no new numbers.
I'll trade the Russell tomorrow in the morning. OUT and flat and stay that way for the balance of the day due to FOMC. Be done by 12:30 CDT
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6: DECEMBER GOLD
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GCZ5 O=7.70 HI=2.40 LO=6.70 CL=0.40
No buy zone for now. Another big gap higher. Sells only off the $10 gold channel for tomorrow.
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7: DECEMBER COTTON
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CTZ5 O=.40 HI=.00 LO=.11 CL=.98
I bought 50.60 on the break above 50.50. I exited at 51.10 for for $250. I bought again at 51.10 and exited at 51.40 on the failure at 51.50 for another $150. As volume picked up in the last hour I bought 1 at 51.55 and exited at 51.90 for $175. A nice day. Hectic, but nice.
Same numbers from TT again tomorrow. I will also buy a failed retest at 49.50 as it turns and heads north. The stop is 49.37.
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8: DECEMBER COCOA
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COZ5 O=60 HI=75 LO=56 CL=71
Big gap down. Nothing for us today. I'll stick with the TT numbers
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9: DECEMBER CORN
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CZ5 O=2.07 1/2 HI=2.07 1/2 LO=2.05 3/4 CL=2.06 1/4
I'm very tempted to buy another retest of 2.06 anything. I'm also very suspicious. I'll sit tight another day.
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10: DECEMBER WHEAT
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WZ5 O=3.24 HI=3.26 1/4 LO=3.20 CL=3.201/4
I sold 3.25 1/4 and was stopped out at 3.24 for a penny and a quarter. Later in the day came the whuppin' as we tapped 3.20. I couldn't get in off those numbers. Shoot. Same numbers for tomorrow.
